09 - population growth resources

Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Engineering & Society:Population Growth & Resources

Dr. Gershon WeltmanEngineering 183EW, UCLA SEASLecture 9

2Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013

Today’s Headlines


Humans Are Recent Arrivals

A Million Years of Human Growth

Universe - 6B Years Earth - 4.5B Years Bacteria - 2.5B Years Multicell Biota - 600M Years Human Beings ~ 2M Years 1 Billion People ~ 200 years


A Closer Look

Last 12,000 Years

200 Million 1 Billion

0 2000

6 Billion

-10,000


Three Growth Eras2

6 B

1

2

3


Population Growth Factors

Agriculture Animal Domestication Intensive Crop Production

Urbanization Shelter and Transport Water and Energy Sanitation & Health Services

Industrialization Distribution of food, goods and medical products Worldwide Economic Growth Increased Family Resources

Medicine Medical: Cleanliness, Infection Prevention, Hospitalization: Isolation of illness Nutrition: Fertility, Individual Health Longevity: Infant Survival, More child-bearing years


Dramatic Effect of Industrialization

$6,000

$5,000

$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000

020000-6000 -4000 -2000-8000

Per Capita Gross Product

The IndustrialRevolution

Malthusian Trap

Industrial Surge

After William Rosen “The Most Powerful Idea in the World,” Random House, New York, 2010


UN Fertility Trends (2004) Fertility rate is

average number of childbirths per woman

Above 2.1 is growth, below 2.1 is decline

Developed nations at 0 or minus growth

Developing nations also dropping but still positive

Education and greater affluence contribute to drop

We are Here


Interrelationships are Complex5

2040

9.5B9.5B

Assumptions• Resources = 1990x2• Consumption = 1990


UN Population Projections (2004)

Nominal Projections 8.9B at 2050 9.2B peak at 2075

Broad Projection Range 5.5B to 14.0B by 2100 2.3B to 36.4B by 2300

We appear to be in high range of 2050 estimates

Long term projections depend on many not fully known factors

Much uncertainty exists, both in 21st century and in following centuries

We are Here

Higher fertility

Lower fertility

Projected fertility


Example Resource Consumption

Water Consumption Worldwide

Consumption is: High Getting higher Increasing faster

than population


Present Water Resources Are Limited8

Water availability: 33% is base flow

23% is accessible 10% is remote

67% is flood runoff We are near limits of

presently accessible resources

Need to use Water from more

remote areas Flood runoff resource Other sources, e.g.

ocean desalinization and local reclamation


LA Aqueduct: 100 Year Anniversary


Present Land Resources Are Also Limited7

Land resources: Are insufficient at

present yields Sufficiency means:

More land under cultivation

At least double present yields

Land is acquired by deforestation and/or improved irrigation

Yields can be increased by biotechnology – but possibly at a cost


Energy Consumption in 20th Century9

Steeper increase last 50 years

Mostly from increased use of hydrocarbons

Influenced by: Development Climate Affluence

Primary resources mainly non-renewable


Predicted Energy Consumption


Varying Predictions of Oil Depletion

2000 2100

We are Here

2050


Predicted Oil Prices


Energy Technology Evolves10

Cars replaced horses as technology created new transportation needs


Horses to Cars Example


Energy Technology Evolves

Cars replaced horses as technology created new transportation needs

Energy forms have changed constantly to match society’s changing needs and the availability of natural resources


Potential for World Energy Evolution *

Source 1980 1990 2000

Petroleum 133 136 155

Natural Gas 54 75 91

Coal 73 92 91

Hydraulic 18 22 27

Nuclear 8 20 25

Alternative Electrical (Solar, wind, geothermal, wood, etc.

0.5 1.7 2.9

Alternative Non-Electrical (Ethanol, etc)

2.5 2.2 2.3

Total 289 351 396

*Quadrillion (1015) Btu, International Energy Annual, www.eia.doe.gov

62%85%

1.3%

6.3%6.8%


Emerging Alternative Technologies

Boeing Spectrolab Solar Concentrator Cellswww.defenseindustrydaily.com

Windmills Farm, Altamont Pass, Livermore, California © Dan Chusid 2009 Worldwide

It is difficult for alternative energy to make headway while oil and gas are still cheap, but forward thinking countries are starting to convert

It is difficult for alternative energy to make headway while oil and gas are still cheap, but forward thinking countries are starting to convert


Oil & Gas Prices Historically Oscillate…

Recent Peak

$100

$50

$01980 20001950

People Panic


…but Gas Remains a Relative Bargain…

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 9 3 5 1 9 5 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 5

CA Minimum Wage ($)

Gas = $0.25/galMW = $0.75/hr

Gas = 20 min/gal

Gas = $1.70/galMW = $5.10/hr

Gas = 20 min/gal

2013

Gas = $3.60/galMW = $8.00/hr

Gas = 27 min/gal

8

7

2000

But x2-3 Mileage 1950 ~2-3 min/mile2013 <1 min/mile

Gas remains the low cost alternative despite increasing oil pricesGas remains the low cost alternative despite increasing oil prices


…and Coal Remains a Prime Contender

Lots of Coal – But coal is heavy polluter Need better coal and alternative energy forms

l))


Resource Overview

Energy Consumption is increasing Conventional resources are decreasing

Water Overall use: 6x in 100 years (vs. 2x population growth) Agriculture: Uses 70% of total Human consumption: Inadequate drinking supplies

40% of world faces drinking water shortages 1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water 2.2 million die annually from contaminated water

Food Developing countries: 2100 to 2700 cal/day Industrial countries: 3000 to 3400 cal/day Capacity to produce is nearing limits


% of global income84.7

1.4

Poorest 20%

Resource Impact is Disproportionate11

Impact = PAT Population Affluence Technology

United States 5% population 25% impact

New Players China India Japan South Korea Brazil Argentina Others

Richest 20%Poorest 20%


Energy Consumption is Disproportionate

Table from http://www.geographylwc.org.uk


Income Distribution is Skewed…

Table from B.D. Skinner, “The Gumption Memo”, www.gumption.org

~20% of the worldis “poor”

~20% of the worldis “poor”

~20% of the worldis “consumer class”

~20% of the worldis “consumer class”

~60% of the worldis “middle class”

~60% of the worldis “middle class”

$8K $50K$1K $75K

The stated goal of most economic programs is toward greater affluenceThe stated goal of most economic programs is toward greater affluence


…but Income Distribution is Changing

Columbia University economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin reports that world and country incomes are rising and less people are living in poverty1.

Columbia University economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin reports that world and country incomes are rising and less people are living in poverty1.

1Xavier Sala-i-Martin, The World Distribution of Income, Columbia U. Paper, October 9, 2005


The Cost of Affluence: Water Example

1 lb Grain 450

liters

6,200 liters

12,400 liters

1 Hamburger

1 Steak

For approximately the same caloric value!


Transport % of Energy World = 20% US = 30%-35%

Cars % of Transport USA = 90% Europe = 80% Japan = 60%

Total Number of Cars 2000 = ~450 Million 2030 = ~1000 Million

Developing world is the key area of concern For equal % of overall energy

2030 = 3x Efficiency (60 mpg) 2100 = 20x Efficiency (400 mpg)

Cars are Important Consumers of Resources

19301930 1950 2000 2030

900,000,000


Car Trends: Becoming more Rational?

GMC Yukon~ 6000 lb~ 15 mpg~ $45,000

Toyota Prius~ 2800 lb~ 55 mpg~ $21,000

Mercedes Smart Car

BMW Mini


The Answer: High Technology?

General Motors Chevrolet Volt Plug-In. Electric vehicles may reduce local emissions, but overall resource saving depends on new energy sources

General Motors Chevrolet Volt Plug-In. Electric vehicles may reduce local emissions, but overall resource saving depends on new energy sources


But We Sometimes Forget

Clean, Efficient Power

Generated by dirty plants, anddelivered by an inefficient grid


Odd Technology? An air-powered car? It may be available sooner than you think at a price tag that will hardly be a budget buster. The vehicle may not run like a speed racer on back road highways, but developer Zero Pollution Motors is betting consumers will be willing to fork over $20,000 for a vehicle that can motor around all day on nothing but air and a splash of salad oil, alcohol or possibly a pint of gasoline. The air car can tool along at a top speed of 35 mph for some 60 miles or so on a tank of compressed air, a sufficient distance for 80% of consumers to commute to work and back and complete daily chores. On highways, the CAV can cruise at interstate speeds for nearly 800 miles with a small motor that compresses outside air to keep the tank filled. The motor isn't finicky about fuel. It will burn gasoline or diesel as well as biodiesel, ethanol or vegetable oil. This car leaves the highest-mpg vehicles you can buy right now in the dust. Even if it used only regular gasoline, the air car would average 106 mpg, more than double today's fuel sipping champ, the Toyota Prius.

Jim Ostroff, Thursday, October 30, 2008 provided by Kiplinger


Citroen 2CV; 60+ mpg, 1948 - 1988

Vespa Motor Scooter, 75+ mpg, 1946 - ?

Back to the Future?


Even Further Back?


More Futuristic?

Electrobike Pi, 20 mph, ~30 miles/charge, ~ $8,000


Resource Impact is Earthwide

Ecological Footprints USA = 12.4 acres/person 3rd World = 1.2 acres/person

To extend today’s USA footprint to everyone would require 3 to 4 planet Earths

But Earth’s essential ecology is under siege Increasing population Increasing affluence Increasing needs and wants


Lessons of the Tragedy of the Commons*

A ‘commons” is a resource not individually owned, but one that is available for use by all

Adam Smith’s theory that a free market yields optimizing behavior requires strong prior agreement on ethical behavior for the common good – by Adam Smith’s own account

In the absence of such agreement, Governments, organizations and people seemingly act in ways that endanger or destroy the commons – unless they are otherwise motivated or regulated

The Gulf of Mexico is an example: Companies exploit oil resources without regard for the ultimate effect on other common resources -- until almost inevitable disaster forces reconsideration of strategies

*Garrett Hardin, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, 162(3859), Dec. 13, 1968


Our Commons Today

Image courtesy Malin Space Science Systems, 2004


Commons Components in Danger

Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels

Mineral ores

Topsoil

Water: Pollution including ground aquifers

Forests: Wood and oxygen production

Atmosphere: Pollution and climate change

Oceans and coral reefs: Food, sea-life & beauty

Wilderness: Refuges, wetlands & scenery

Species: Biodiversity and biological resources


An Emerging Ecological Ethic

New System Concepts Ecosystem as a whole Finite limits on non-renewable resources Ecological stability is highly desirable Ecological sustainability is essential

New Views of Nature Holistic & interdependent vs. dualistic and mechanistic Influenced by science – Darwin, DNA, biology, etc. And by religion – Stewardship, the sacredness of nature

Biocentric Ethical Philosophy Rights and welfare of whole biotic community Long term duties to future generations


The Uses of Technology

Understanding what is happening Sensors, data processing Computer models, simulations, prediction Communication, publication……….

Developing alternative technologies to mitigate and eliminate dangers Energy Water Food Transportation Health Care Etc.


The Roles (and Duties) of Engineers

Analysis Measuring and analyzing current situation Predicting future conditions Establishing technical requirements Creating new strategies for a sustainable environment

Innovation and Development Improving current technologies Developing totally new paradigms

Communication To policy makers To the non-technical public


“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Yogi BerraNew York Yankees

Baseball Legend

But Remember…


Some Previous Misguided Predictions

Heavier than air flying machines are impossible - Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895

Everything that can be invented has been invented – Charles Duell, US Patent Office, 1899

Sensible and res-ponsible women do not want to vote - Grover Cleveland, 1905


Some Previous Misguided Predictions

Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? Harry Warner, 1927

There is no likeli-hood man can ever tap the power of the atom - Robert Millikan, 1923

Ruth made a big mistake when he gave up pitching - Tris Speaker, 1921


Summary

Major increases are occurring in the world’s population and in people’s economic aspirations

As a result, there are significant stresses on our common resources, environment and ecology

Technology and engineering are central -- both to creating these problems and to solving them

The next 20 to 50 years will be critical Predicting future outcomes is very difficult


References

1. Cohen, Joel, How Many People Can The Earth Support?, W. W. Norton & Co., New York, 1995, p79-82.2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology, and the human environment: A thread through time, Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, J Ausubel and H.D.Langford, Eds., National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page 38 (concept credited to Deevey, E., The human population, Scientific American, 203, no.9 (September) 1960, pages 194-204.)3. Cohen, op. cit., p139.4. Kates, op cit., p50-51.5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al, Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River Junction, Vermont, 1992, p128-140.6. Meadows, op. cit., p7.


References (Continued)

7. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p51.8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55.9. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p67-8.10. Ausubel, J, and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, p21 and 8611. Cohen, op. cit., p52.12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999 edition, The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992. 13. Wilson, E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992.14..Meadows, op. cit, p92-96.15. National Research Council, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change, National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 200016. Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy economy in Brown, Lester et al, State of the World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 2001, page 851e Energy-Environment Nexus, The Bridge, NAE, Vol. 32, No.218. Barbour, Ian, Ethics in an Age of Technology, Harper Collins, 1993 p57-89, 179- 8919. Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak, Pantheon Books, New York, 1984, revised 2000

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