071011 14.30 uhr finanzierungsmöglichkeiten, frau tarrago ... · belarus / croatia / kazakhstan /...

GO EASTFinanzierungsmöglichkeiten von Windenergieanlagen in Polen

Rosa TarragóCoC RE RMBerlin, 11.10.2007

2CoC Renewable Energies

Agenda

1. Commerzbank & CoC

2. Current status wind energy in Poland

2.1 Ressource potential: wind atlas

2.2 Current network condition

1 – 5

6 – 15

3. Project financing & BRE Bank 16 – 20

4. Conclusions 21 – 22

2.3 Environment aspects: Natura2000

2.4 Support system


Corporates and Markets

796 domestic branches

6.7 million account holders

Telebanking business with

115,000 customers

850,000 deposits with assets

of €130bn

comdirect - Europe’s fastest

growing on-line broker

780,000 high net worth

customers with assets in

excess of €12bn

21 branches outside Germany

Total Assets: € 608bn (inc. Eurohypo)

Market Capitalisation: € 20.1bn

Based: Frankfurt, Kaiserplatz

Founded: 1870 in Hamburg

Employees: 36,000 worldwide

No. of clients: c.8,000,000 worldwide

Rated A / A2International Banking

Private Banking

Domestic Banking

No 5 in German Asset

Management

CB hold >98% of equity in

Eurohypo, Europe’s largest real-

estate lender

Acquired 66.2% in November from

DBK and DrKW

CBK also owns controlling stake in

BREbank

Corporate Relationship Management

Capital Markets & Advisory

Debt Capital Markets

Brokerage

Derivatives

Research

Asset Management

BRE Bank and Eurohypo

Centralized unit in Hamburg

responsible for national and

international RES projects

Portfolio of app. 3.5 billion EUR

CoC Renewable Energies

Commerzbank - An Overview


Countries representing 90% of worldwide wind energy growth.

Future emerging markets

Source: Global wind energy outlook 2006. GWEC

Renewable energy is growing worldwide& Commerzbank is worldwide


BRE Bank* (70.2%)Headcount: 3,878Total assets: € 11,099mPre tax profit: € 135m

Poland

Russia

CB (Eurasija) SAO* (100%)Headcount: 83Total assets: € 1,070m Pre tax profit: € 34m

Prague branch incl. Bratislava* (100%)Headcount: 148Total assets: € 2,101mPre tax profit: € 16m

Czech Republic/ Slovakia

Hungary

CB Budapest Rt* (100%)Headcount: 113Total assets: € 843mPre tax profit: € 12m

Promsvyazbank (15.32%)Financial investment

ProCredit BanksAlbania / Bosnia-Herzegovina / Bulgaria / Georgia / Kosovo / Romania / Serbia

Representative officesBelarus / Croatia / Kazakhstan / Romania / Russia / Serbia- Montenegro / Ukraine / Uzbekistan

CB presence in CEE / CIS - strong platform for further growth

* Data as per 12 / 2006

Ukraine

Bank Forum* (60%)Headcount: 2,506Total assets: € 1,102mPre tax profit: € 2.5m


Track record in renewable energy projects since 1986

One of Europe’s leading banks in the renewable energy sector

Portfolio of app. € 3.5 billion debt finance

Arranger of structured finance transactions

Extensive market knowledge (techniques, legal framework, business evaluation)

Project and corporate financial service along the value added chain

Center of Competence renewable energies - your first choice for renewable energy financial services-


Poland: strong platform for further growth in wind business (1/2)

Existing (indicative) national target: 7.5% RES by 2010

Wind: 2.3% of energy consumption

2.000 MW from base case of ca 234,6 MW

Comparison: Spain‘s (realistic) target 20.000 MW by 2010

New (binding) EU target: 20% from RES by 2020

PL will have to comply with this new target or risk penalties


Source: PWEA Status 01/10/2007

• Till now, 9 commercial windfarms

• All located on the Nord

• 788 Km of coast with high potential for offshore winfarms

Tymién windfarm, 50 MW

Gniewino

Tymién

Puck

Kisielice

200730 MWKamieńsk

200650 MWTymién

200722 MWPuck

200740,5 MWKisielice

200730,6 MWJagniątkowo

20058,4 MWGniewino

20025,1 MWBarzowice

200118 MWCisowo

2002

SoO

30 MWZagórze

CapacityProject

Poland: strong platform for further growth in wind business (2/2)


Poland wind ressources: onshore at 30 m and offshore at 100 m

• Baltic Renewable Energy Center estimates: 4.000 MW, i.a., 30% of the Polish land surface is economically suitable for wind turbine applications, with 5% classed as very favorable

• Resources on Baltic Sea coast and North-Eastern Poland, some potential on complex terrain on the South

• Wind energy potential in Poland has been analysed many times. Lack of objective results.

• Therefore, wind studies for each site are more than ever necessary.

Source: Institute of Meteorology and Water Management

Onshore

Offshore


‘Very favorable’ wind sites are located in rural areas with none or poor grid systems

Underdeveloped distribution network does not allow connection of wind farms over 1.500 MW in the next 5 years

Controversy about financing of necessary investment required for WP connection

Requirement for developers to prepare the grid impact assessment

Improvement on energy balancing regulation

How much wind can tolerate the MV & HV networks?

Source: PSE – Operator S.A.

• DSO have determined and agreed with the TSO the connection conditions for 49 farms (2.146 MW)

• There are plans in place to expand the existing transmission and distribution networks. These investments in the electricity industry are estimated to cost around USD50 billion over the next 15 years. Much of this cost, though, is proposed to be covered in the process of privatization

• Transmission system operator, PSE, has already defined a Development Plan to meet the target of RE production

PSE assumes the following amounts of installed power in wind sources:

2007 ………………….. 473 MW

2008 ………………….. 901 MW

2009 …………………..1.543 MW

2010 …………………..2.297 MW

2011 …………………..2.332 MW

2012 …………………..2.376 MW

2013 …………………..2.422 MW

2014 …………………..2.471 MW


• Network capacity for wind famrs: limited to a “reserve capacity”

• Energy balance

Reduction of the electricity production schedule from 48 to 2 hours

• In case of unbalancing:

Balance energy sale: 37,52 €/MWh

Balance energy purchase: 20,37 €/MWh

Difference: 17,15 €/MWh

Network capacity & Balancing system

Source: PSE – Operator S.A.

• It is expected, gov‘t will set a capacity guarantee to improve competitiveness

• Balancing costs have to be deducted from electricity remunertion. New regulation allows to reduce balancing costs.


Natura2000: environmental issues that need to be addressedSource: ETC Biological / Diversity(European Environment Agency)

• 72 areas of special birds protection (9.7% of the country’s area)

• 240 special habitats’ protection (5,4% of the contry’s area)

• Lack of training of local institutions in charge of NATURA 2000 & of transparency regarding sources on presence of priority species on particular areas

• Increase in the amount of land considered as legimitmate for being qualified as NATURA2000

• Approval of an environmental impact assessment (EIA)

Source: EBREC, Krzysztof Gierulski


• Annual revenues: 30 MW Kamiénsk Hill Windfarm

1) Electricity: 74.800 MWh = € 2.244.000

2) Certificates: 74.800 MWh = € 4.488.000

3) ERU: 75.099 CO2t = € 375.495

• Total annual cash-flow: € 7.107.495

Attractive remuneration system, though volatile

• Electricity price

117,49 PLN/MWh (ca. 3 €c/kWh)

• Green certificates

max. 240 PLN/MWh (ca. 6 €c/kWh) + inflation

• Emission Reduction Unit (CO2 certificates)

ca. 5 €/ERU

205,85

191,11191,55

164,66

183,73 180,13187,38

181,66

190,44

194,69

174,97

196,28

239,24237,89

201,54 200,38196,54 197,84 198,89 199,35 201,62

211,82

229,39

236,95

120,00

140,00

160,00

180,00

200,00

220,00

240,00

260,00

Janu

ary 2

006

Febru

ary 2

006

Mar

ch 2

006

April 2

006

May

200

6

June

200

6

July

2006

Augus

t 2006

Septe

mbe

r 200

6

Octo

ber 2

006

Novem

ber 2

006

Decem

ber 2

006

PLN/MWh

OTC transactions OZEX

Feed-in Tariff Germany

Prices for Green Certificate 2006


Quantification of emission reductions

CO2emissions

(within project

boundaries)

years

crediting period

Baseline emissions without JI project (business as usual)

Emissions with JI project

real CO2emissions

reduced CO2

emissions

Project Implementation


Power Purchase Agreements: with whom?

Map of distribution companies

• PPA with distribution companies or energy trading companies

• PPA lifetime should be longer than the loan lifetime

• PPA prices use to be 20% lower than market prices

• ERU-certificate can improve bankability if provided with an ERPA agreement


Our product range for Poland

Equity

Matching of investors and project developers

Investment advisory

Debt

PF loan, loan syndication, club deal, bilateral lending

Financing structures for all RE technologies

Multicurrency lending

Bonds

Other

Operating accounts and commercial banking needs

Investment banking needs

Currency and interest rate management

Asset management

Debt Equity Other


Finance plan for the various stages of PF

Financial Close Commissioning Seasoning period Seasoning complete (with proven performance)

Turbine Finance

• Specific criteria (planning permissions, land use, grid connections)

• To finance turbine deposits

• Debt to Equity ratio t.b.d.

• Tenor for individual project max. of e.g. 12-18 months depending on the delivery lead times

• Turbine supplier: (several)

• Delivery lead time is t.b.d.

• Debt to be taken at the project holding level for a portfolio of development projects

Construction Finance

• Finance part of Capexincluding refinancing of the turbine deposits

• Debt to Equity ratio [t.b.d.]

• Tenor e.g. 18-24 months construction period plus e.g. 2 years seasoning period

• Capex consists of external hard and development costs

• Debt to be taken at the project holding level same as turbine deposit finance for a portfolio of the same projects that move into construction phase

Bridge Finance

• Refinancing of part of equity funded hard and development costs during construction phase (excluding any uplift in equity valuation of each project)

• The proceeds to be reinvested into projects at development / pre-construction phase

• The seasoning period is up to 2 years for individual projects

• Bridge Finance is secured by the dividend cash flows with a minimum coverage ratio of x:y, e.g. 2:1

Take out Finance

• Pre-agreed and structured to take out the Construction and Bridge Finance.

• Take out option include:- Bank syndication- ABS - Funds- Bond

Pre-construction Construction Phase Operational Phase


Poland: project finance structure

Extensive contract review for diversification of risks

Legal, Financial & Techncial DD

Project Company

ShareholdersAgreement

Supply & ErectionWarranty

Turbine Manufacturer

EPC Contract

Construction Contractor

Operating and MaintenanceContract

O&M Contractor

Credit/FacilityAgreement

SubordinatedLoan Agreement

Insurance policies

Subordinated Debt Equity Subscription

Sponsors

Insurers Hedge Providers

Power Purchase Agreement

Security

Utility Lenders

Swap/ Option Agreements

Which parties are involved?

Which are the relations of these parties among each other?


Cisowo Windfarm (18 MW - V.80)

• Owner: Energia Eco Sp. zo.o

• Developer: EPA

• Location: Cisowo (Koszalin region) ca 1,5 km from Baltic shore

• Generation: 55.000 MWh/pa

• Commissioning: 1st stage (3 WT) in IVQ 2001 2nd stage (6WT) in IQ 2002

• Turbine type: Vestas V80-2,0MW

• Investment costs: PLN 94 mm (EUR 26.1 mm at rates 02/2002)

• Financing: Equity 20% Grant 27,3% EcoFundusz, NFOŚiGW 47,5% (National Fund

for Environmental Protection and Water Management) (preferential loans for 10 years period)

BRE Bank short term loan of 5,2% for VAT financing - fully repaid upon completion of the project;

• other facilities provided by BRE Bank for the 2nd stage of the project:

(a) L/C (70% of the total amount of contract with Vestas2nd stage of the project);

(b) payment guarantee securing 75% of preferential loan provided for the 2nd stage of the project for 2,5 years.


• In the past, none international commercial banks provided debt finance

• The role of local „commercial banks“ was limited to provide: short term VAT-financing, L/C, payment guarantees

• Financial close only possible with large grant amounts & international donor‘s providing debt finance

• Today: equity provided by renowned international players & commercial banks

• Portion Equity / Debt changed

Financing Windfarms: past & present

WindfarmInvestment

Subordinated Debt Equity Subscription

Sponsors Hedge Providers

Lenders

Debt

Commercial Banks

WindfarmInvestment

Sponsors

EBRD

Debt

10%

40%

Subsidies20%

EcoFund National Fund

90%40%

World Bank ……

Windfarms

WP

WP


Conclusion (1/2): Summary

• Resources: 4.000 MW, i.a. 30% of land surface

234,6 MW installed

WE potential has been analyzed many times. Need for objective results.

• Grid: 1.500 MW reserved capacity at distribution level for next 5 years

2.471 MW till 2014 at transmission level

Weak grids in some areas with significant wind resources

Specific balancing for wind energy allowed

• Environment: Natura2000 areas need to be limited

• Remuneration: allows to reach financial close in combination with a bankable PPA

Electricity prices expected to increase

Stable certificate (CoO) prices

ERU prices expected to increase


Conclusion (2/2): Trends

• Estimated high wind potential contributed to the emergence of a large number of project developers and investors

• The market will change significantly in short-term perspective (refuse of weak developers, reduction of no. of non-feasible projects, growing importance of strong developers like Iberdrola…)

• Significant increase of installed capacity may start from 2008 - 2009

• The significant influencing factor will be the national policy and attitude to the WE (stability of law conditions, public support to the investment, declaration of will to meet national targets)

• New quota obligation and development of third party access (TPA) market

• EU 3x20 binding package is an important market driver for WE in Poland

• Growing experiences from wind farms operation, good practices to avoid planning mistakes and environmental, grid and social problems

www.commerzbank.com

For further information:

Rosa M. TarragóRelationship ManagerP: +49 40 3683 4927M: [email protected]


Cap for Certificates of Origin (CoO)

• Maximal price for CoO limited to

substitution fee (240 PLN/MWh)

• For 2006, average OTC-price was 186,87

PLN/MWh (48,24 €/MWh) and 212,62

PLN/MWh (54,88 €/MWh) on the free

market

• Since 2007, substitution fee is indexed to

the inflation

• New regulation to avoid double counting

of certificates

Tymién windfarm, 50 MW


BRE Bank (formerly known as Bank for Export Development) was founded in 1986

In 1992 BRE Bank was privatized, since 1994 Commerzbank strategic investor

Nowadays, Commerzbank AG owns ca 70.2 % of BRE Bank’s shares

Key figures of BRE Bank in Poland:

3,320 employees based in 23 commercial banking branches

1.63 million customers and a total of 1.9 million accounts in mbank (internet banking) andMultibank (retail network)

BRE Bank has business relations with nearly every second company in Poland’s to 500 list

whole spectrum of financial services, incl. leasing, mortgage bank, factoring, insurance and brokerage services

one of the leading banks in Poland in project finance (including renewable energy), LBO/MBO financing

Project financing with BRE Bank

071011 14.30 uhr finanzierungsmöglichkeiten, frau tarrago ... · belarus / croatia / kazakhstan /...

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