06 april 2020 information technology 4qfy20e preview - 4qfy20 results preview - hdfc...

06 April 2020 Information Technology

4QFY20E Preview

Calibrating to new normal IT sector is expected to post 4Q revenue growth in the range of -3% to +2.9% QoQ with IT sector (coverage universe) aggregate growth at +0.3/5.6% QoQ/YoY, at its slowest sequential pace in 13 qtrs. The impact of economic dislocation accentuating in March has led to major supply-side transition for the sector impacting billings. The demand-side factors and the second-order impact (disruptions in clients) will lead to a bigger dent in the ensuing quarter (-12 to 0% QoQ in 1Q est). We expect 4Q margins to be flattish (-12bps QoQ) with the impact of utilisations and negative cross-currency mitigated by INR depreciation.

COVID-19 situation has aggravated at a fast clip and we cut EPS estimates further by ~9/15% for tier-1/tier-2 IT, following 4/7% cut on 18-Mar. Our estimates now factor a deeper impact in Jun-qtr and a gradual recovery over the course of Sep-qtr. For FY21, we now expect the sector to post USD rev/PAT decline of 0.5/4% (following 7.5/3.0% growth in rev/PAT in FY20). Indian IT (tier-1) growth has been at a 500/900bps premium to US GDP growth over 5/10 yrs (800bps prem in CY09 recession). Based on the empirical growth premium (including the Sep-08 to Dec-09 compression period), our growth estimates for the sector triangulates to an annual GDP decline scenario of ~3%. The shape of growth recovery will be the biggest determinant though, as growth premium can dissipate in a protracted recovery. While the uncertainty persists as the sector calibrates, IT index’ recent drawdown (20/23% in 1M/3M) supports our constructive stance (Built to last). Our top picks include INFY, HCLT and LTI.

LTI to lead, Sonata, PSYS to lag in 4Q: Within tier-1 IT, TechM is expected to lag growth at -1.6% QoQ, while TCS, INFY, HCLT are expected to post 0.5%, 0.4% (organic) and 0.4% QoQ growth respectively. Wipro is expected to be at the lower-end of its guided range. Within tier-2 IT, LTI is expected to lead growth at 2.9% QoQ while Sonata/Persistent are expected to lag at -3.0/-2.6% QoQ in 4Q. On the operating side, LTI and Mindtree are expected to outperform with QoQ improvement in margins.

Key monitorables include: 1) Demand & sales velocity impact of COVID-19 on key verticals and core geographies, 2) Discretionary services (non-critical) mix/project duration metrics within the revenue pool, 3) COVID-19 impact on service delivery (WFH complexities and regulatory hurdles), 4) Progression/regression in large deal pipeline and virtual framework for pipeline creation and conversion, 5) Medium-term levers to absorb the demand shock and re-set the cost base, 6) DSO trend and capital allocation (buyback) plans.

Ratings & Outlook: Maintain constructive stance on the sector, despite increased uncertainty. Upgrade Mindtree to ADD (REDUCE earlier), Downgrade Persistent Systems to Reduce (ADD earlier). Maintain BUY reco on INFY, HCLT and TechM and ADD reco on LTI, Mphasis, LTTS and Hexaware.

Company CMP (Rs)

RECO TP

(Rs) TCS 1,654 REDUCE 1,770 Infosys 586 BUY 670 HCL Tech 406 BUY 525 Wipro 180 REDUCE 190 TechM 521 BUY 660 LTI 1,354 ADD 1,650 Mphasis 672 ADD 800 L&T Tech 1,108 ADD 1,215 Mindtree 701 ADD 815 Hexaware * 221 ADD 295 Persistent 514 REDUCE 535 Cyient 226 ADD 280 Zensar 88 ADD 95 Sonata 163 BUY 250 Majesco 230 BUY 360 Mastek 175 BUY 333 Exchanges & Staffing

Company CMP (Rs)

RECO TP

(Rs) MCX 987 ADD 1,300

Teamlease 1,535 BUY 2,340

CDSL 210 BUY 315

BSE 297 ADD 410 IT Sector PE – EPS%

Apurva Prasad [email protected] +91-22-6171-7327 Amit Chandra [email protected] +91-22-6171-7345

Vinesh Vala [email protected] +91-22-6171-7332

TCS

INFY

WPRO

HCLT

TECHMLTI

MPHL

LTTS

MTCL

HEXW

PSYS

CYL

ZENT

SSOF

MJCO

56789

101112131415161718192021

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

P/E

(x) F

Y21E

EPS CAGR % (FY20-22E)

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.docs/IT%20-%20Sector%20Update%20-%20Mar20%20-%20HDFC%20sec-202003181755578956796.pdf

https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.docs/IT%20-%20Sector%20Update%20-%20Mar20%20-%20HDFC%20sec-202003181755578956796.pdf

4QFY20 RESULTS PREVIEW

Exchanges & Staffing Within exchanges, MCX is expected to post 19.8% increase in rev post a weak 3Q,

led by rise in Bullion and Crude volume. Margins will recover (+343bps QoQ) led by non-linearity. The stock is down ~25/20% in the last 1M/3M due to increase in margins, reduction in trade timings and drop in volumes. Baked in -12/0% drop in volumes in 1Q/2Q FY21E and recovery in 2H. BSE’s core business performance has improved after many quarters. Cash market increased 53bps QoQ to 6.9%, but still down 188bps YoY. Continued investments in INX and new initiatives are impacting margins. BSE has fallen 35/42% in 1M/3M and is trading at ~15% discount to its cash position (cash/sh of Rs 350 after taking 20% discount). Reduce core P/E multiple to 10x and taken 30% discount to cash.

CDSL (top pick) will have a steady 4Q with 2.7% growth led by Annual Issuer Charges and Transaction charges. Demat of unlisted public companies is an opportunity, but will be delayed due to COVID-19 impact. Proposed hike in Annual Issuer Charges (FY21E) will provide boost to revenue and margins.

Within Staffing, Teamlease will post a muted quarter with 0.4% QoQ led by COVID-19 impact and lock down. Margin will improve 10bps QoQ on better core productivity and higher mark up. We have assumed zero growth in 1Q/2Q FY21E due to domestic slowdown, lockdown impact and higher exposure to BFSI. Lower P/E multiple to 30x vs. 35x earlier due to slowdown in GDP growth.

4QFY20E: Financial Summary Company

NET SALES (USD mn) NET SALES (Rs bn) EBIT (Rs bn) EBIT Margin (%) APAT (Rs bn) Adj. EPS (Rs)

4Q

QoQ

YoY

4Q

QoQ

YoY

4Q

QoQ

YoY

4Q

QoQ

YoY

4Q

QoQ

YoY

4Q

3Q

4Q TCS 5,613 0.5 4.0 405.80 1.8 6.8 100.26 0.5 5.1 24.7 (32) (39) 81.14 (0.1) (0.2) 21.6 21.6 21.7

Infosys 3,260 0.5 6.5 236.03 2.2 9.6 51.61 1.9 11.8 21.9 (6) 43 40.32 (4.3) 1.3 9.5 9.9 9.4

Wipro 2,086 (0.4) 0.5 154.64 (0.0) 3.0 26.12 (1.5) 2.6 16.9 (24) (8) 23.92 (2.6) 1.2 4.2 4.3 4.4

HCLT 2,552 0.4 12.1 184.79 1.9 15.6 36.73 0.1 20.9 19.9 (36) 87 28.16 (7.3) 9.7 10.4 11.2 9.5

Tech M 1,331 (1.6) 5.0 96.08 (0.5) 8.0 11.54 (2.1) (15.7) 12.0 (20) (338) 10.22 (10.8) (9.7) 11.6 13.0 12.9

Tier-1 IT 14,841 0.1 5.4 1,077.33 1.4 8.3 226.26 0.4 7.2 21.0 (22) (23) 183.76 (3.1) 1.1

L&T

Infotech 406 2.9 14.7 29.39 4.6 18.2 4.89 7.0 11.2 16.6 38 (105) 3.96 5.2 4.7 22.8 21.7 21.8

Mphasis 324 2.1 11.2 23.56 3.5 16.3 3.86 4.5 20.5 16.4 16 56 2.94 0.0 10.3 15.8 15.8 14.3

L&T Tech 202 1.5 5.8 14.65 3.0 9.1 2.47 3.4 12.0 16.9 7 44 1.91 (6.3) (0.1) 18.3 19.6 18.4

Mindtree 279 1.4 6.5 20.21 2.8 9.8 2.57 8.6 8.1 12.7 68 (20) 2.02 2.7 2.1 12.3 12.0 12.0

Hexaware* 216 1.0 20.3 15.67 2.5 24.0 2.03 (0.7) 16.8 13.0 (42) (79) 1.63 (2.6) 18.1 5.5 5.6 4.6

Cyient 153 (1.4) (7.4) 11.05 (0.1) (5.0) 1.02 (4.0) (31.6) 9.2 (38) (360) 0.93 (14.4) (50.8) 8.2 9.6 16.7

Zensar 142 (0.9) (4.5) 10.25 0.4 (2.6) 0.43 49.7 (62.3) 4.1 136 (658) 0.38 (5.1) (56.7) 1.6 1.7 3.8

Tata Elxsi 60 0.9 3.7 4.34 2.6 7.2 0.84 1.8 (8.0) 19.4 (16) (322) 0.67 (10.7) (5.5) 10.8 12.1 11.4

Persistent 126 (2.3) 6.9 9.16 (0.8) 10.1 0.74 (8.6) (17.1) 8.0 (69) (264) 0.78 (15.2) (20.9) 10.2 12.0 12.9

Sonata 45 (3.0) 4.4 8.75 (29.3) 4.7 0.79 (21.0) (5.9) 9.1 95 (103) 0.68 (10.6) 5.3 6.5 7.3 6.2

Intellect 48 6.1 (15.4) 3.45 7.6 (12.9) 0.04 NM (89.0) 1.2 NM (854) 0.08 NM (82.3) 0.6 -0.9 3.3

Majesco 37 0.1 1.0 2.69 1.4 2.8 0.23 1.6 76.6 8.5 2 357 0.14 2.7 66.3 5.1 5.0 3.1

Mastek 43 24.4 12.4 3.07 26.2 15.1 0.39 41.5 27.1 12.8 139 121 0.32 5.0 19.4 11.3 12.0 10.6

Tier-2 IT 2,083 1.5 7.2 156.23 0.5 10.3 20.30 4.6 1.4 13.0 50 (113) 16.44 (1.1) (6.6)

Aggregate 16,924 0.3 5.6 1,233.56 1.3 8.6 246.56 0.7 6.7 20.0 (12) (35) 200.21 (3.0) 0.5

Exchanges & Staffing

TeamLease NA NA NA 13.56 0.4 16.6 0.21 6.9 (8.6) 1.6 10 (43) 0.24 (9.2) (10.4) 13.5 14.9 15.2

MCX NA NA NA 1.07 19.8 35.2 0.45 30.4 116.1 42.5 343 1,592 0.59 14.4 43.1 11.6 10.1 8.1

BSE NA NA NA 1.19 8.1 2.7 -0.07 (49.6) (41.2) (6.1) 696 454 0.32 11.5 (42.3) 6.5 5.9 11.3

CDSL NA NA NA 0.56 2.7 9.9 0.25 4.2 (3.3) 44.3 64 (607) 0.30 (3.2) (9.4) 2.9 3.0 3.2

Aggregate 16.38 2.1 16.3 0.84 31.3 46.4 5.1 114 106 1.45 5.4 (7.5)

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research, * YE Dec estimates for Q1CY20

Page | 2


Peer Set Comparison

Company MCap CMP TP

RECO EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%)

(Rs bn)

(Rs) (Rs) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

TCS 6,206 1,654 1,770 REDUCE 83.9 86.4 83.5 93.1 19.7 19.2 19.8 17.8 36.1 35.6 33.9 37.6 Infosys 2,488 586 670 BUY 37.1 37.8 37.2 41.5 15.8 15.5 15.7 14.1 24.3 25.2 24.7 25.9 HCL Tech 1,101 406 525 BUY 37.3 39.5 37.5 43.9 10.9 10.3 10.8 9.2 26.0 23.5 19.1 19.4 Wipro 1,027 180 190 REDUCE 15.8 17.2 15.8 17.2 11.4 10.5 11.4 10.5 17.3 17.4 15.1 14.4 TechM 503 521 660 BUY 48.9 48.3 45.0 50.9 10.7 10.8 11.6 10.2 22.0 20.6 17.7 17.8 Tier-1 IT Median

11.4 10.8 11.6 10.5 24.3 23.5 19.1 19.4

LTI 236 1,354 1,650 ADD 87.1 86.2 93.1 109.9 15.5 15.7 14.5 12.3 34.6 28.2 26.3 27.0 Mphasis 125 672 800 ADD 57.6 60.4 59.6 66.9 11.7 11.1 11.3 10.0 20.0 20.5 18.6 19.3 L&T Tech 116 1,108 1,215 ADD 67.8 77.2 72.9 86.7 16.3 14.4 15.2 12.8 32.0 29.8 24.4 25.2 Mindtree 115 701 815 ADD 44.1 40.2 43.4 54.2 15.9 17.4 16.2 12.9 24.9 19.0 20.6 23.0 Hexaware * 66 221 295 ADD 19.6 21.5 20.0 22.6 11.3 10.3 11.1 9.8 26.5 24.6 20.1 20.5 Persistent 39 514 535 REDUCE 47.8 45.7 36.2 44.5 10.7 11.2 14.2 11.5 15.7 14.0 11.3 12.9 Tata Elxsi 37 594 NA NR 46.6 41.2 40.2 45.1 12.7 14.4 14.8 13.2 34.5 25.2 21.4 20.9 Cyient 25 226 280 ADD 43.6 34.7 27.8 31.1 5.2 6.5 8.1 7.3 19.5 14.7 11.0 11.5 Zensar 20 88 95 ADD 14.2 10.3 9.2 11.8 6.2 8.5 9.6 7.4 17.6 11.5 9.4 11.2 Sonata 17 163 250 BUY 23.7 27.3 22.4 27.5 6.9 6.0 7.3 5.9 35.1 34.6 25.6 28.6 Intellect 8 60 NA NR 7.7 (1.7) 1.7 4.9 7.8 NM 34.9 12.2 11.1 (2.2) 2.2 6.1 Majesco 6 230 360 BUY 18.3 18.0 20.5 24.8 12.5 12.8 11.2 9.3 8.4 7.3 7.8 8.8 Mastek 5 175 333 BUY 39.9 39.8 39.6 43.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.1 15.9 15.0 13.3 12.8 Tier-2 IT AVG

10.6 11.1 13.3 9.9 22.8 18.6 16.3 17.5

Tier-2 IT Median

11.3 11.2 11.3 10.0 20.0 19.0 18.6 19.3 EXCHANGES & STAFFING

Company MCap CMP TP

RECO EPS (Rs) P/E (x) RoE (%)

(Rs bn) (Rs) (Rs) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E MCX 50 987 1,300 ADD 29.5 44.4 40.4 50.6 33.4 22.2 24.4 19.5 11.4 17.7 15.5 18.7 TeamLease 26 1,535 2,340 BUY 57.3 51.2 56.4 77.9 26.8 30.0 27.2 19.7 20.0 15.0 14.2 16.8 CDSL Ltd 22 210 315 BUY 10.9 11.1 11.3 13.3 19.3 18.8 18.5 15.8 17.0 16.1 15.0 16.0 BSE 13 297 410 ADD 46.1 32.6 38.0 46.7 6.4 9.1 7.8 6.4 7.1 5.9 6.9 8.5 Median

23.0 20.5 21.5 17.6 14.2 15.5 14.6 16.4

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research, * Dec Y/E, CMP as on 3rd April 2020

Page | 3


Stock Performance Stocks/Index (%) 1W 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y CAGR 5Y CAGR

Nifty (3.7) (24.5) (29.7) (24.4) (24.9) (0.7) 2.0

Nifty IT (5.2) (19.2) (23.2) (20.2) (23.0) 4.6 (0.1)

TCS (9.1) (18.6) (24.6) (19.5) (20.3) 9.4 4.6

Infosys (9.9) (21.2) (21.1) (26.9) (23.9) 2.6 0.1

Wipro (1.8) (19.5) (28.3) (23.6) (34.8) (5.8) (8.0)

HCL Tech (4.9) (27.5) (30.0) (23.9) (26.8) (3.5) (3.4)

Tech Mahindra 3.9 (30.3) (32.5) (25.3) (33.8) 4.7 (3.6)

L&T Infotech (3.5) (31.4) (25.8) (10.4) (20.8) 23.9 NA

Mphasis (3.0) (23.7) (24.6) (28.9) (31.8) 1.0 8.6

L&T Technology (6.4) (34.3) (27.1) (30.6) (30.1) 12.9 NA

Mindtree (15.3) (29.3) (14.3) (2.9) (25.8) 14.4 0.3

Hexaware 3.9 (39.4) (34.6) (40.6) (39.2) 0.3 (7.0)

Persistent (5.4) (27.3) (26.4) (7.6) (21.6) (5.8) (8.1)

Tata Elxsi (7.4) (42.9) (29.2) (13.7) (39.2) (7.3) (1.4)

Cyient (3.2) (46.3) (48.4) (51.7) (62.5) (22.1) (15.6)

Zensar 14.1 (34.8) (53.4) (57.7) (61.3) (21.5) (7.8)

Sonata (5.7) (52.4) (48.1) (48.1) (53.9) (2.6) (1.5)

Intellect 21.4 (46.5) (58.2) (68.2) (71.9) (13.0) (6.4)

Majesco 5.2 (39.0) (41.3) (48.2) (52.6) (5.9) (2.7)

Mastek 1.8 (57.7) (58.1) (47.0) (62.4) 0.2 (14.8)

Global Peers

Accenture (4.1) (14.0) (25.3) (15.9) (11.9) 9.4 9.8

Cognizant (5.1) (25.7) (27.7) (26.9) (43.0) (11.8) (8.6)

Capgemini (10.8) (27.1) (37.4) (33.1) (35.9) (6.7) (1.3)

Exchanges & Staffing

MCX (4.4) (24.9) (20.2) 3.5 26.2 (6.1) (3.4)

Teamlease (0.5) (35.9) (38.5) (49.2) (49.5) 15.2 8.4

CDSL 1.1 (17.2) (15.6) 2.1 (12.2) (7.1) (4.3)

BSE (0.7) (34.5) (41.9) (54.1) (57.4) (36.5) (25.2)

Source: Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 4


IT Sector P/E and EPS Growth

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, Size of the bubble denotes market cap

Revenue-mix by Verticals (%) VERTICALS TCS Infosys HCLT Wipro TechM LTI BFSI 30.4% 31.5% 21.6% 30.9% 13.2% 45.5% Retail & CPG 15.2% 15.3% 10.3% 16.9% 7.6% 11.2% Hi-Tech & Communications 15.4% 20.6% 24.1% 18.0% 49.8% 10.8% Manufacturing 10.0% 10.3% 20.9% 8.2% 17.3% 20.9% Travel & Transportation NA NA NA NA NA NA

Mphasis Mindtree Hexaware LTTS Cyient Zensar

BFSI 56.8% 21.3% 48.0% NA NA 28.9% Retail & CPG NA 20.6% 18.2% NA NA 13.8% Hi-tech & Communications 15.7% 41.4% NA 18.5% 29.3% 41.1% Manufacturing 5.0% NA NA 54.9% 43.3% 13.4% Travel & Transportation 13.9% 16.6% 10.3% NA NA NA

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research; NA also implies not separately disclosed

Infosys

Wipro HCLT

TechM

L&T Infotech

Mphasis

Hexaware

Mindtree

L&T Tech

Cyient

TCS

Persistent

Zensar

Sonata

56789

1011121314151617181920212223

-8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

FY 2

1E P

/E (x

)

EPS CAGR % FY20-22E

Page | 5


Change in Estimates

IT Services

Company USD Revenue Change % EBIT Margin Change (bps) EPS Change (%) Old TP

(Rs) New TP

(Rs) FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E TCS (3.1%) (2.6%) (59) (3) (5.2%) (2.6%) 1,815 1,770 Infosys (4.9%) (4.9%) (133) (116) (10.7%) (9.7%) 735 670 Wipro (6.5%) (6.6%) (48) (21) (8.8%) (7.7%) 205 190 HCL Tech (4.8%) (6.1%) (85) (26) (7.5%) (5.6%) 560 525 TechM (7.0%) (7.1%) (102) (101) (12.3%) (12.2%) 750 660 LTI (3.3%) (3.5%) (10) (7) (3.5%) (3.5%) 1,820 1,650 Mphasis (4.7%) (5.5%) (60) (2) (7.9%) (5.2%) 845 800 L&T Tech (6.7%) (5.5%) (63) (88) (12.4%) (11.2%) 1,560 1,215 Mindtree 0.0% 0.0% (22) (115) 1.1% (6.2%) 865 815 Hexaware * (3.4%) (3.9%) (58) (86) (9.5%) (10.4%) 355 295 Persistent (9.9%) (9.8%) (233) (198) (26.5%) (23.2%) 810 535 Cyient (8.9%) (9.7%) (238) (229) (26.4%) (25.7%) 415 280 Zensar (9.8%) (9.9%) (87) (112) (20.3%) (21.1%) 120 95 Sonata (15.1%) (13.7%) (234) (166) (27.7%) (20.9%) 350 250 Majesco (7.1%) (8.3%) (88) (140) (14.9%) (19.4%) 455 360 Mastek (8.1%) (9.2%) (193) (247) (15.8%) (20.8%) 465 333 EXCHANGES & STAFFING

Company INR Revenue Change (%) EBIT Margin Change (bps) EPS Change (%)

Old TP (Rs)

New TP (Rs)

MCX (10.3%) (10.4%) (465) (366) (14.7%) (14.5%) 1,450 1,300 TeamLease (9.7%) (10.8%) (16) (12) (17.0%) (15.3%) 3,222 2,340 CDSL Ltd (5.3%) (5.3%) (297) (278) (7.4%) (7.4%) 351 315 BSE (3.6%) (1.9%) (227) (56) (7.2%) (3.7%) 610 410

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, *Dec Y/E

IT Services estimates Company

USD Revenue (bn) (New) EBIT % (New) EPS (Rs) (New) Old Multiple (x)

New Multiple (x) FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

TCS 21,897 23,685 24.0 24.5 83.5 93.1 19 19 Infosys 12,809 14,000 20.5 21.0 37.2 41.5 16 16 Wipro 7,943 8,316 15.9 16.4 15.8 17.2 12 11 HCL Tech 10,061 10,841 18.3 18.8 37.5 43.9 12 12 TechM 5,188 5,531 11.8 12.5 45.0 50.9 13 13 LTI 1,613 1,849 16.2 16.5 93.1 109.9 15 15 Mphasis 1,274 1,376 14.9 15.0 59.6 66.9 12 12 L&T Tech 797 926 16.0 16.0 72.9 86.7 15 14 Mindtree 1,135 1,259 11.1 12.0 43.4 54.2 15 15 Hexaware * 840 912 12.1 12.4 20.0 22.6 14 13 Persistent 496 547 7.8 8.9 36.2 44.5 14 12 Cyient 584 610 8.6 9.2 27.8 31.1 10 9 Zensar 549 597 6.9 8.0 9.2 11.8 8 8 Sonata 177 191 7.7 8.7 22.4 27.5 10 9 Majesco 149 166 9.0 9.8 20.5 24.8 1.3 EV/S 1.0 EV/S Mastek 203 218 10.3 10.0 39.6 43.2 8 7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, *Dec Y/E

Exchanges & Staffing Company

New Revenue (Rs bn) New EBIT Margin (%) New EPS (Rs) Old Multiple (x)

New Multiple (x) FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E FY21E FY22E

MCX 3.95 4.74 40.5 46.9 40.4 50.6 30 30 TeamLease 56.20 66.20 1.6 1.9 56.4 77.9 35 30 CDSL Ltd 2.25 2.64 41.5 45.0 11.3 13.3 30 30 BSE 4.83 5.43 -3.5 3.6 38.0 46.7 15 10

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IT Sector USD Revenue Growth (% YoY) IT Sector USD Revenue Growth (% QoQ)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research


IT Sector EBIT Margin Trend (%) IT Sector EBIT Margin Change (QoQ bps)



Tier-1 IT: Revenue growth to witness sharp fall in FY21E

Tier-2 IT: Revenue growth peaked in FY19



7.2 7.9 7.7 7.4

-1.0

7.7

21.6

21.1

21.6

20.8

20.0

20.6

19

20

20

21

21

22

22

-2-10123456789

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

USD Revenue Growth % EBIT Margin % (RHS)

7.0 12.6 14.5 7.8 2.6 10.2

13.112.7

14.1

12.8

12.4

13.0

12

12

13

13

14

14

15

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

USD Revenue Growth % EBIT Margin % (RHS)

6.7%

3.6%

6.9%

6.1%

7.8%

9.3%

10.6

%

9.0%

8.3% 8.

9%

8.2% 8.5%

8.1%

7.9%

5.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%2Q

FY17

3QFY

17

4QFY

17

1QFY

18

2QFY

18

3QFY

18

4QFY

18

1QFY

19

2QFY

19

3QFY

19

4QFY

19

1QFY

20

2QFY

20

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Page | 7


Currency movements Favourable movement of USD-INR (+1.7% QoQ) to support margins.

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USD-INR Trend GBP-USD Trend

Source: NSE, Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research

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Page | 8


Revenue & Margin Performance (4QFY20E) Tier-1 IT Revenue performance (QoQ %) Tier-2 IT Revenue performance (QoQ %)

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Tier-1 IT Revenue performance (YoY %) Tier-2 IT Revenue performance (YoY %)

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Tier-1 IT Margin performance (QoQ bps)

Tier-2 IT Margin performance (QoQ bps)

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

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Page | 9


4QFY20E: Calibrating to new normal What’s Likely Key Monitorables

TCS TCS’ 4Q rev is estimated at USD 5,613mn, +0.5/4.0%

QoQ/YoY with 0.8% CC QoQ and -30bps cross currency impact, INR revenue at Rs 405.80bn, +1.8/6.8% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated at 24.7%, -32bps QoQ. APAT estimated to be flat at Rs 81.14bn.

For FY21E, we’ve factored 1.4% USD rev decline (BFSI/Mfg decline of ~4% offset by growth in LS & Healthcare/Retail & CPG verticals) and 50bps margin erosion. Factored USD rev growth a -3.5/+0.2/1.0/3.0% QoQ over 1Q-4QFY21.

Commentary on COVID-19 impact on service delivery (WFH, regulatory & compliance complexities), demand disruption and impact by geography (US/UK/Continental Europe); medium-term demand trends and prospects of vendor consolidation.

COVID-19 impact assessment by verticals and sub-verticals with impact on discretionary/non-discretionary services and changes to large deal contracting activity.

Supply-side margin levers to counter the demand disruption impact (involuntary attrition, hiring, variable compensation); other structural G&A levers and fresher onboarding timeline.

Commentary & outlook on BFSI vertical (and sub-segments) and tech spend by large BFS clients (earlier commentary of share gains vs. peers).

TCV of deal wins (including BFSI & Retail & CPG TCV), expected to be strong in 4Q supported by Walgreen Boots deal (USD 1.5bn) and Phoenix (~USD 2bn, not included in 3Q TCV).

Capital allocation and inorganic plans. Infosys Infosys’ (INFY) revenue estimated at USD 3,260mn,

+0.5/6.5% QoQ/YoY supported by +0.8% QoQ CC including 0.1% inorganic (Simplus). INR revenue est at Rs 236.03bn, +2.2/9.6% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated at 21.9%, -6bps QoQ. APAT estimated to be Rs 40.32bn, -4.3% QoQ.

For FY21E, we’ve factored -0.3% USD rev growth (organic rev decline) and 100bps lower margin (vs. FY20) with BFSI/Retail CPG/Comms/E&U growth at -0.8/0.7/-1.3/-15%. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4QFY21 QoQ USD rev at -3.6/+0.5/1.5/2.9%.

Commentary on COVID-19 impact on service delivery, demand disruption and impact across key geographies.

Supply-side margin levers across hiring, involuntary attrition, variable compensation, sub-contracting to mitigate the demand shocks.

H-1B staffing challenges with large scale furloughs across major industries (including the tech workforce).

TCV of large deals – 4Q key wins included a strong infra component in K+S AG, GE Appliance and ABN AMRO wins.

Wipro Wipro’s USD revenue is expected to decline by 0.4% QoQ

(+0.1% CC) to USD 2,086mn led by weak BFSI (Capital markets), Covid-19 impact (~2 weeks) and fall in crude prices. Growth will be at the lower end of the guided range of 0-2% CC.

Consolidated EBIT margin to decline 24bps to 16.9%. IT services EBIT margin to decline 30bps QoQ to 18.1% led by lower revenue and cross currency impact offset by INR depreciation and lower travel cost.

APAT is expected to decline 2.6% QoQ to Rs 23.92bn. Factored in USD rev growth of -3.9/+4.7% and IT services margin of 17.0/17.3% for FY21/22E. BFSI/ENU/Consumer/Healthcare/Manufacturing growth assumed at -4.4/-8.4/+2.2/-2.3/-5.1% for FY21E. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4Q FY21 QoQ USD rev at -3.5/-2.7/+0.5/+1.6%.

1QFY21E guidance is expected to be in the range of 0 to -4% in CC (led by Covid-19 and low Oil prices).

Clarity on the selection of new CEO, assumptions for the guidance provided and capital allocation policy.

Impact of Covid-19 on the demand environment, discretionary spending, existing RTB projects, contract cancellations and client conversations.

Margins levers available like variable pay, hiring freeze, higher utilisation and rationalisation of SG&A.

Outlook on ENU which has the dual impact of Covid-19 and falling oil prices.

Impact on the BPO revenue where WFH is difficult to achieve. Deal pipeline and TCV wins, growth in Digital business and

stress in legacy portfolio.

Page | 10


What’s Likely Key Monitorables HCL Technologies HCL Tech’s (HCLT) revenue estimated at USD 2,552mn,

+0.4/12.1% QoQ/YoY supported by 0.6% QoQ CC and -20bps cross currency impact. INR revenue at Rs 184.79bn, +1.9/15.6% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated at 19.9%, -36bps QoQ and APAT estimated at Rs 28.16bn.

For FY21, HCLT estimated to post 1.2% growth and 100bps margin decline (vs. FY20). Growth implies 1Q-4QFY21 USD rev QoQ growth at -3.3/+0.7/1.8/2.0%. IT & Business services (70% of rev) growth of -0.2% in FY21 implies -3.0/+1.0/2.0/2.0 QoQ over 1Q-4QFY21. ER&D (17% of rev) growth of -3.2% in FY21 implies -5.0/-1.0/+1.0/2.0% QoQ over 1Q-4QFY21.

Demand impact of COVID-19 in key verticals and geographies and progress on large deal ramp-up schedule.

HCLT’s optimal levels of WFH in India and onsite (currently WFH at 76% offshore and 90% onsite); framework for WFH enablement for employees including client approvals.

Performance & outlook of P&P business, customer onboarded on IBM products, new product/version release (progress on Unica/BigFix release) and P&P margins.

Recurring revenue streams within P&P, IT & BS and ER&D and transformational deal wins in 4Q (39 in 9MFY20); key wins in 4Q include Fonterra (Retail & CPG), Stanley, Black & Decker/UPM (Mfg) and InterContinental (Hospitality).

FY21 revenue and EBIT margin guidance, revenue guidance expected to be a wide band; Mode-2 margin performance & outlook.

Tech Mahindra TechM’s USD revenue to decline by 1.6% QoQ (USD

1,331mn, -1.0% CC), owing to decline in both Telecom (-2.0% QoQ) and Enterprise (-1.4% QoQ) led by Covid-19 impact. Telecom is impacted by BPO (10% rev), lower Comviva revenue (4Q is strongest quarter) and drop in AT&T revenue. Enterprise is impacted by Pininfarina (Italy), Manufacturing (Europe Auto) and China impact. There will be contribution from BORN acquisition (~USD 10mn) and large insurance deal (Phoenix) ramp-up (slower than expected).

EBIT margin to contract by 20bps QoQ to 12.0% despite currency benefits on account large deal transition cost and revenue decline. Net profit to decline 10.8% QoQ to Rs 10.22bn.

We estimate USD revenue growth of -0.6/6.6% and EBIT% of 11.8/12.5 for FY21/22E respectively. Telecom /Enterprise growth for FY21E is estimated at -0.9/-0.3%. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4Q FY21 QoQ USD rev at -2.1/-2.0/+1.1/+2.0%.

Impact of Covid-19 on Telecom/Enterprise segment, Discretionary spending, 5G projects, client conversations and demand environment.

Margins outlook for FY21E and steps taken to protect margins like cutting of variable pay, hiring freeze, higher utilisation and rationalisation of SG&A.

Implementation of WFH for BPO segment. Proportion of Voice in BPO revenue.

Demand outlook for Manufacturing and BFSI verticals. Telecom vertical TCV, scope of work related to 5G and

Network services in Telecom. Growth and margin outlook for portfolio companies. Progress on transition of the large deal (Insurance) and the

performance of the newly acquired companies. Payout and acquisition strategy post the Covid-19 impact.

L&T Infotech

L&T Infotech’s (LTI) revenue estimated at USD 406mn, 2.9/14.7% QoQ/YoY and INR revenue estimated at Rs 29.39bn, 4.6/18.2% QoQ/YoY supported by 2H seasonality. EBIT margin estimated at 16.6%, +38bps QoQ supported by INR depreciation. APAT estimated at Rs 3.96bn, 5.2% QoQ.

For FY21, USD rev growth of 6.1%; BFSI and CPG, Retail & Pharma vertical expected to outperform at 9% and 10% growth offset by E&U -4% and Hitech, Media & Others. FY21 growth estimates imply -3.5/+0.9/2.9/3.1% QoQ in USD rev growth. Verticals expected to have higher impact include Mfg (Auto), E&U and Hi-tech (we’ve factored -6/-7/-5% QoQ respectively for 1Q).

Outlook on top account and performance/outlook of BFS vertical, medium-term outlook on the vertical in a lower interest rate scenario and discretionary service mix in the vertical.

Progression/regression in large deal pipeline and virtual framework for pipeline creation and conversion.

NN deal wins (USD 219mn in 9MFY20) and commentary on deal wins; OKQ8 deal (Oil & Gas) ramp-up schedule.

Demand side challenges across verticals; share of travel & logistics within the others segment.

Page | 11


What’s Likely Key Monitorables Mphasis Mphasis’ 4Q revenue is estimated at USD 324mn,

2.1/11.2% QoQ/YoY with Direct Core growth at 2.5/13.2% QoQ/YoY, DXC-HP channel growth at 0.5/2.5% QoQ/YoY and Digital Risk growth at 4/32% QoQ/YoY. INR revenue at Rs 23.56bn, 3.5/16.3% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated at 16.4%, +16bps QoQ. APAT estimated at Rs 2.94bn.

For FY21 USD rev growth factored at 2.4% with Direct Core growth at 4.6%, DXC-HP channel growth of -5%. FY21 revenue growth implies -3.6/+0.8/1.6/1.7% QoQ over 1Q-4QFY21.

Commentary on BFSI vertical and opportunities/disruption in BFS sub-segments.

Composition and impact of discretionary services (PoC/Co-innovation led deals or Newgen services) across segments – Direct Core & DXC-HP.

Performance & outlook on DXC-HP channel; tech stack/vertical/geo growth drivers following the changes in DXC leadership.

Service delivery impact on the BPM segment (billing risk); EBIT margin guidance for FY21

TCV of wins in Direct International; growth outlook of Digital Risk.

L&T Technology Services L&T Technology Services’ (LTTS) revenue is estimated at

USD 202mn, 1.5/5.8% QoQ/YoY and INR revenue estimated at Rs 14.65bn, 3.0/9.1% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated to be flat QoQ at 16.9%. APAT estimated at Rs 1.91bn, -6.3% QoQ.

Expect FY21 rev performance to be flat (0.5% YoY) factoring -6/-5% in Industrial Product/Telecom & Hi-tech, offset by Process Industry/Medical devices growth at 6/19%. FY21 growth implies -4.7/+1.1/2.7/4.3% QoQ over 1Q-4QFY21.

Demand shock impact on ER&D budgets and dispersion (in-sourcing/vendor consolidation).

Furlough impact across verticals (mgmt indicated earlier <1% of rev impact) and outlook of high-impact verticals of Industrial products, Transportation and Process Industry (Oil & Gas segment).

Discretionary services (non-critical) component /project duration metrics and sales velocity by verticals; progress on Domestic deal (Industrial Products) ramp-up.

Pricing and DSO impact from large clients; strategy to mitigate the risk of shorter duration projects.

Supply & staffing complexities (LTTS expected to reach 90% WFH) and services protocol (client approvals).

Mindtree Mindtree is estimated to post revenue of USD 279mn,

+1.4/6.5% QoQ and INR revenue at Rs 20.21bn, 2.8/9.8% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated at 12.7%, +68bps QoQ and APAT estimated at Rs 2.02bn, 2.7% QoQ.

For FY21, we expect 4.2% growth factoring -0.4/+0.8/1.6/2.7% QoQ over 1Q-4QFY21 (1Q decline offset by Realogy ramp-up). FY21 growth implies 20% decline in Travel & transportation, offset by 11% growth in Technology, Media & services (13% growth in T1 account).

Performance and growth outlook of T1 account, opportunities from increased usage of collaboration tools and greater cloud adoption.

Deal closure and remote sales strategy, progress on Realogy deal.

Digital revenue (Interactive and Data science & engg.) performance and TCV of digital deals.

Outlook on BFSI vertical and progress on partnerships (Duck Creek).

Outlook on T10 accounts and pricing & renewal commercials/DSO situation with large accounts.

Hexaware Technologies Hexaware is estimated to post revenue of USD 216mn,

1.0/20.3% QoQ/YoY and INR revenue at Rs 15.67bn, 2.5/24.0% QoQ/YoY. EBIT margin estimated at 13%, -42bps QoQ also impacted by Ind AS 116. APAT estimated at Rs 1.63bn, -2.6% QoQ.

CY20 revenue growth of 5.9% factors 2Q-4QCY20 rev growth of -4.6/-0.2/+2.4% QoQ. CY20 growth implies 11% decline in Travel & transportation and 7% decline in large BFS account (Freddie Mac).

Outlook on large BFS account (QoQ decline expected and CY20 -3% impact on overall growth); management highlighted MoM improvement.

Impact from pricing discounts, payment terms extension and project delay/cancellation.

Demand impact on Travel & transportation, Fitness sub-segment within Healthcare vertical, and Education business sub-segment.

TCV of NN wins, commentary on EN wins; changes to CY20 revenue guidance.

Service delivery and supply-side complexities across service-lines esp. BPM

Page | 12


What’s Likely Key Monitorables Cyient Cyient’s USD rev is estimated to decline 1.4% QoQ to USD

153mn led by fall in services/DLM revenue by 0.5/10%. DLM fall is due to lower production in the manufacturing facility due to lock down. Services revenue is impacted by weak performance in A&D, Communication and Transportation verticals.

EBIT % will decline 38bps QoQ to 9.2% led by revenue decline offset by currency and lower travel cost.

APAT to decline 14.4% QoQ to Rs 0.93bn due to revenue decline and lower tax incentives from exports.

We estimate USD revenue growth of -7.1/+4.5% and EBIT% of 8.6/9.2 for FY21/22E. Services /DLM growth for FY21E is estimated at -4.6/-26.6%. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4Q FY21 QoQ USD rev at -3.4/-3.2/+0.6/+3.7%.

Impact of Covid-19 on the services revenue and delivery of ongoing projects. Specific impact on the A&D and Transportation verticals, client specific issues and demand environment for FY21E. Impact on discretionary spending post the current crisis.

Outlook for A&D vertical in a scenario where airlines globally are facing challenges.

Reduction of investments in NBA program and rationalisation of sales people.

Salary hike, hiring freeze and reduction in variable pay for sales and senior management to protect margins in case of continued pressure on revenue.

Impact on DLM revenue as WFH is not possible and the exposure is high towards A&D vertical, which is under pressure.

Zensar Technologies

Zensar’s USD revenue is expected to decline 0.9% QoQ (USD 142mn) led by weakness in Retail and Hi-Tech. The impact was Covid-19 will be felt in BFSI (Africa) and Retail portfolio.

EBIT margin to expand 136bps QoQ to 4.1% led by currency tailwinds and absence of one-off client discounts offset by Covis-19.

Net profit to decline by 5.1% QoQ to Rs 0.38bn. We estimate USD revenue growth of -7.0/+8.6% and

EBIT% of 6.9/8.0 for FY21/22E. Hi-Tech/Retail/BFSI growth for FY21E is estimated at -7.3/-24.1/+3.7%. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4Q FY21 QoQ USD rev at -3.7/-2.6/+3.4/+3.1%.

Deal pipeline, TCV wins and update on the execution of exiting deliverables related to Covid-19 impact.

Impact on BFSI post the lock down in Africa. Extent of impact on Retail revenue, which was already struggling pre Covid.

Outlook on margins considering revenue decline, high impact on legacy portfolio and clients discounts.

Commentary on improvement in Cloud and Infra business. TCV wins in the view of no travel, which impacts deal wins.

Cost cutting measures implemented to save margin erosion.

Persistent Systems Persistent System’s (PSYS) 4Q revenue estimated at USD

126mn, -2.3/+6.9% QoQ/YoY and INR revenue at Rs 9.16bn, -0.8/+10.1% QoQ/YoY impacted by 1.5% QoQ growth in TSU and -12% QoQ in Alliance business. EBIT margin estimated at 8%, -69bps QoQ impacted by decline in Alliance business. APAT estimated at Rs 0.78bn, -15.2% QoQ.

PSYS’ FY21 revenue decline of 1% and margin decline of 110bps factors TSU growth of 1.8%, offset by Alliance decline of 8.5%. 1Q-4QFY21 rev growth factored at -4.5/+0.7/3.3/1.5% QoQ for PSYS.

Economic impact on key verticals – BFSI, Healthcare & LS and Hi-tech & Industrial, impact on Salesforce services; customer approvals and optimal WFH levels (including ODC support).

Discretionary/critical services component in TSU business and contract durations/annuity component.

Outlook & disruption of Alliance business and growth strategy, opportunities from Red Hat ecosystem.

Impact of pricing discount/payment terms changes from key accounts; risk of financial stability of customer portfolio (tail risk from share of VC/PE-backed clients).

Sonata Software We expect International IT services (IITS) USD revenue to

decline 3.0% QoQ to USD 45mn led by drop in revenue from one large client in Travel vertical (Covid-19 impact).

Top travel client in Europe is 65% of Travel and 17% of IITS. This client revenue is impacted almost by 70% as per current situation. The potential impact on revenue could be ~USD 13-14mn (~8% of TTM IITS revenue). The full year impact could be ~15% on revenue based on some recovery in the 2HFY21E.

International IT services/DPS EBITDA margin is expected to be at 21.0/3.7%, -417/+74bps QoQ.

Consolidated revenue will stand at Rs 8.75bn down 29.3% QoQ due to fall in DPS and IITS revenue.

DPS revenue will fall 40.0% QoQ to Rs 5.47bn and EBIDTA will decline 25.0% QoQ to Rs 0.20bn.

Net profit is expected to be Rs 0.68bn down 10.6% QoQ. We estimate IITS USD revenue growth of -2.6/+7.8% and

EBITDA% of 17.9/20.0% for FY21/22E. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4Q FY21 QoQ USD rev at -12.3/-5.0/+3.0/+3.1%.

Outlook on the business ex Travel. Outlook on the OPD and Retail business post in the Covid-19 scenario.

Margin outlook for the IITS business near term revenue pressure. Measures taken to protect margins in terms of hiring, salary hikes, variable pay and rationalisation of sub-con expenses.

DPS outlook in the lock down, steps taken to protect profitability for the DPS business.

Receivables in the DPS business considering slowdown in domestic market.

Deal pipeline and health of the Microsoft account considering increasing Covid-19 impact in USA. This is a key area to watch as the revenue concentration is high.

Page | 13


What’s Likely Key Monitorables Majesco Ltd We expect USD revenue to increase by 0.1% QoQ to USD

37.2mn, led by stable Cloud revenue (+2.5/+2.5% QoQ/YoY). Non-cloud revenue will decline by 1.7/0.3% QoQ/YoY.

Gross margin will stand at 46.5% up 21bps QoQ, EBIT margin will remain flat at 8.5%. Cloud subscription revenue and currency has helped in maintaining margins.

Net profit to stand at Rs 0.14bn up 2.7% QoQ. We estimate USD revenue growth of +2.1/+11.5% and

EBIT% of 9.0/9.8% for FY21/22E. Cloud revenue to grow at 13.8/19.6% for FY21/22E. FY21 growth implies 1Q-4Q FY21 QoQ USD rev at -0.3/-2.1/+2.3/+2.5%.

Growth drivers for the cloud business (~40% of rev) and stability in the legacy business (~15% of revenue).

Update on the progress on the phase-2 of the Metlife implementation program and possible extension of go-live of phase- due Covid-19 impact.

Order-book and deal pipe-line from the IBM and the core channel. Possible impact on the order book as there is no pre-sales activity.

Demand environment for the Insurance vertical, both L&A and P&C. Any signs of acceleration in shift to cloud activity post the recent Covid-19 issue.

Margin outlook and cost cutting measures implemented to keep cost under check.

Mastek Mastek’s 4Q revenue estimated at GBP 33.5mn, +26.4

QoQ and +15.2% YoY. USD revenue will grow 24.4% QoQ led by currency (GBP - USD 1.27 vs. 1.29 QoQ). Growth is led by Evosys integration (ex Middle East business) and will have a contribution of ~USD 8mn in 4Q. Organic growth for 4Q is +1.0/-8.7% QoQ/YoY.

We expect recovery in UK Govt. revenue while UK private will continue to be under pressure. US ramp up was strong till Feb-20 but Mar-20 has been impacted due to Covid-19.

INR revenue estimated at Rs 3.07bn, +26.2%/+15.1% QoQ/YoY.

EBIT% estimated at 12.8%, +139bps QoQ due to integration of higher margin Evosys. APAT estimated at Rs 0.32bn +5.0/+19.4% QoQ/YoY.

We cut the value of stake in Majesco to Rs 31/sh (earlier Rs 55/sh). The concerns around delay in decision making, currency fluctuations and slowdown is UK Private remains, but we are hopeful of some improvement in the UK Govt business post the Covid-10 impact.

IT spending outlook of in UK Govt. related to Covid-19 impact. Spending of the various UK Govt departments like NHS, Home Office, HMRC and Police.

Impact on the US business due to Covid, as the portfolio is mostly Retail.

Complete integration of Evosys and the growth outlook of Evosys Middle East business after the recent oil price crack.

Margin outlook and cost cutting measures taken in view of Covid-19.Impact on margins due to sharp depreciation of GBP again USD.

Update on the UK Private where the impact of Covid-19 is higher (Retail and BFSI).

Update on sale of the remaining 5% stake in Majesco US.

4QFY20E: Exchanges and Staffing

What’s Likely Key Monitorables MCX

We expect revenue to increase 19.8/35.2% QoQ/YoY to Rs 1.07 bn led by 18.7% QoQ increase in ADTV to Rs 366.26bn.

Bullion/Energy ADTV is up 41.0/12.9% QoQ to Rs 141.25/170.035bn. Metals volume is impacted due to compulsory physical delivery, down QoQ since last four quarters.

EBITDA margin to increase 271bps to 46.6%, APAT is expected to increase 14.4% QoQ to Rs 0.59bn due to higher revenue offset by contribution to SGF

We expect some volume impact due to current lock down and reduction in trading hours.

Launch of new products like Indices, pricing for options and timeline for implementation.

Update on the Institutional participation volume post SEBI approval.

Volume up-tick from the tie-up with broking subsidiaries of leading Retail banks.

Impact on volumes due to temporary suspension of physical delivery and higher margins for Gold and Crude contracts.

Open interest build up for major contracts like Gold, Silver, crude, Copper, Cotton etc.

Margin outlook and increase in fixed costs.

Page | 14


What’s Likely Key Monitorables BSE We expect revenue to increase 8.1% QoQ to Rs 1.19 bn

led by 25.8% QoQ increase in Transaction revenue. Cash ADTV is up 19.3% QoQ to Rs 30.24bn while currency derivative turnover is down 18.7% QoQ. Cash market share has improved slightly, stands at 6.9% vs 8.8% YoY.

StAR MF orders increased 27.2/70.4% QoQ/YoY to 18.18mn while INX no. of daily trades is up 175% YoY to 66.7K.

EBITDA margin will stand at +5.1% vs -1.0% QoQ and APAT will increase 11.5% QoQ to Rs 0.32bn.

Strategy to gain cash segment market share and benefit from interoperability of clearing corporations.

Steps taken to improve StAR MF volume (only growth driver for the company).

Timeline for revenue generation from the INX exchange. Investment in INX is eating margins.

Strategy to scale up revenue from emerging segments like SME, StAR MF and INX.

Cost cutting initiatives specially when core business is under stress.

Impact of Covid-19 on volumes and implementation of WFH. CDSL We expect revenue to increase 2.7% QoQ to Rs 0.56bn led

by growth in annual issuer changes and transaction charges offset by decline in and IPO/corporate action charges. The KYC revenue is not impacted due to Covid, the online channel KYC volume is strong in 4Q.

The issuer charges will be boosted by addition of ~150 unlisted public companies in the quarter. New additions got impacted in March-20 due to Covid-19.

EBIT margin will increase 64bps QoQ to 44.3% and PAT will come at Rs 0.30bn down 3.2% QoQ.

Impact of Covid on transaction volumes, addition of unlisted companies.

Growth drivers for KYC business from the online channel. BO account addition and incremental market share.

Annual Issuer charges hike and progress on the new revenue streams like NAD, e-warehouse receipts etc.

Steps taken to withstand the impact of Covid-19 and any increase in cost structure (IT cost).

TeamLease We expect revenue to increase 0.4/16.6% QoQ/YoY to Rs

13.56bn. Core staffing, NETAP has not witnessed any client exit in 4Q, but the lock down and stress in Banking & NBFC will have an impact in 1HFY2E.

EBIT margin will expand 10bps QoQ to 1.6% led by productivity improvement. APAT will stand at 0.24bn down 9.2% QoQ.

Core Staffing+NETAP/Specialised staffing revenue to grow by 0.4/0.0% QoQ and EBITDA margins to stand at 1.7/7.6% respectively.

Core staffing mark-up to increase to Rs 766/employee/ month.

Staffing/NETAP/Specilaised staffing headcount to grow by 0.3/0.4/0.0% QoQ.

Update on the demand environment across top sectors (BFSI, Retail, Manufacturing, e-commerce).

Impact of the slowdown in GDP and stress in BFSI segment. WFH implementation for core staff and associates.

Update on TDS refunds which has to be collected from the IT department. Impact of accumulated Mat credit if we shift to the new tax regime.

Performance Evolve (Telecom), IMSI (IT Captives) and margin improvement.

Possibility of reduction in associate headcount in General Staffing/NETAP due to contract cancellations.

Page | 15


Stock Performance and valuation trend

TCS P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend Infosys P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend

s

Source: Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research

Wipro P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend HCL Tech P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


Tech Mahindra P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend L&T Infotech P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


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Mphasis P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend Mindtree P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


L&T Technology P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend Hexaware P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


Cyient P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend Persistent P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


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11131517192123

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eClerx P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend Zensar P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


Sonata P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend Mastek P/E (1-yr fwd) Trend


Intellect EV/Revenue (1-yr fwd) Trend Majesco EV/Revenue (1-yr fwd) Trend


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Rating Criteria BUY: >+15% return potential ADD: +5% to +15% return potential REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Disclosure: We, Apurva Prasad, MBA, Amit Chandra, MBA & Vinesh Vala, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –YES HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is solely for information of the recipient only. The report must not be used as a singular basis of any investment decision. The views herein are of a general nature and do not consider the risk appetite or the particular circumstances of an individual investor; readers are requested to take professional advice before investing. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment advice. 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HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report. HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022) 3045 3600 HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX: INZ000186937; AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549; PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 11092018; IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: CA0062; SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475; SEBI Investment Adviser Reg. 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Page | 19

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