05_croadapt_skugor_en.pdf

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Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013

ClimVar & ICZMDaria

Povh

Škugor

[email protected]‐com.hr

PAP/RAC

CroAdapt ‐ Nacionalno savjetovanje: “Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj”, Zagreb, 23. siječ nja, 2014.


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Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013

Established in 1977, as one of 7 Regional Activity

Centres of Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP)

MAP is one of 18 regional seas of UNEP

Today’s key mission of

PAP/RAC

is

asistance to

countries to implement the ICZM Protocol

Priority Actions ProgrammeRegional Activity Centre

MED POL

REMPEC

SPA/RAC

BP/RAC PAP/RAC

INFO/RACCP/RAC

PAP/RAC


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MAP STRUCTURE

MED POL REMPEC SPA/RACBP/RAC PAP/RAC INFO/RAC CP/RAC 100 HS

Meeting of the Contracting

Parties

to the BarcelonaConvention

Bureau

MEDU(Co-ordinating Unit

acting as secretariat)

United Nations

specialised agencies

UNEP(United Nations Environment

Programme)

MCSD

(Mediterranean Commissionon Sustainable Development)

National Focal Points


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4

Coastal Area

Management

Programmes (CAMPs) ‐MAP's programmes for sustainable coastal management

1993 1996 1997 1999 2000 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 Ongoing...

Key PAP/RAC Achievements

ICZM PROTOCOLSigned in 2008Entered into force 2011



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Project

presentation

Climagine

ICZM Plan

Cost assessment ‐ DIVA



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ClimVar & ICZM in a nutshell

To assist countries tomainstream the issue ofclimate variability and changeinto the ICZM by usinginstruments provided byMediterranean ICZM Protocol.

Main objectives

US$ 2.3M (GEF funds) plusUS$ 7M co-financing

Financing

2-year duration (2013-2014)

Duration

IMPLEMENTING AGENCY

UNEP

EXECUTING AGENCIES

Coordinating Unit of the UNEP/MAP; PAP/RAC; GWP‐

Med and Blue Plan

COUNTRIES OF IMPLEMENTATION

Morocco, Algeria,

Tunisia,

Egypt, Palestinian Authority, Albania, Montenegro and

Croatia



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ClimVar & ICZM

‐ a

part

of

wider

perspective

‐

MedPartnership project

Climate Variability

and

ICZM

The biggest

partnership

project

in

Mediterranean ‐ against land‐based pollution, for conservation of

biodiversity and for ICZM

Mission: To include climate variability and change

12 countries,

10 partnersBudget: 12,9MUS$ +36 M cofinancingDuration: 5 years


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Project Components

MedPartnership ClimVar and ICZM

INTEGRATED APPROACHES

LAND BASED

POLLUTION

BIODIVERSITY

CONSERVATION

DATA MANAGEMENT

KNOWLEDGE

BUILDING

INTEGRATION

INTO

ICZM

INTEGRATED APPROACHES

KNOWLEDGE

BUILDING

INTEGRATION

INTO

ICZM



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Project Activities


INTEGRATED APPROACHES:National ICZM Strategies: Algeria& Montenegro

Economic & Social Assess. forCroatian Marine & CoastalStrategy

ICZM plans: Reghaia (Algeria) ,Buna/Bojana TB

Integrative MethodologicalFramework

LAND BASED POLLUTION

BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

DATA MANAGEMENT

KNOWLEDGE BUILDING:

DIVA: Croatia & Tunisia

Downscaling of DIVA Šibenik-Knin

County (Croatia)

INTEGRATION INTO ICZM:

ICZM Plan with focus on CVC –Šibenik-Knin County (Croatia)

Awareness raisingReplication: Croatian Marine andCoastal Strategy



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Project Activities


INTEGRATED APPROACHES:National ICZM Strategies: Algeria& Montenegro

Economic & Social Assess. forCroatian Marine & CoastalStrategy

ICZM plans: Reghaia (Algeria) ,Buna/Bojana TB

Integrative MethodologicalFramework

LAND BASED POLLUTION

BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION

DATA MANAGEMENT

KNOWLEDGE BUILDING:

DIVA: Croatia & Tunisia

Downscaling of DIVA Šibenik-Knin

County (Croatia)

INTEGRATION INTO ICZM:

ICZM Plan with focus on CVC - ŠKCounty (Croatia)

Awareness raisingReplication: Croatian Marine andCoastal Strategy



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NOW

DIVA

Downscaling of DIVA ŠK County

Economic & Social Assessment

ICZM Plan ‐ ŠK County

Marine & Coastal Strategy

Preliminary results

Final results

National level

Regional level

Activities in Croatia

Climagine


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• Dynamic Interactive Vulnerabili ty Assessment – considered ascurrently most comprehensive and most relevant method policy-wise

• integrated global model for assessing biophysical and socio-economic consequence of sea-level rise and associated extremewater levels acc. to various physical and socio-economic scenarios,

taking into account various adaptation strategies.

• DIVA was formed within DINAS COAST project, and applied inothers such as PESETA, CLIMATE-COST, ADAM and BRANCH,UNFCCC report on coastal area adaptation, in Asia-Pacific Integrated

Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Network of Southeast and East Asia, COMPASS project for Argentina, Bracil and Chile etc.

DIVA

What is DIVA?

University of Kiel


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DIVA – DATA COLLECTION



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DIVA – COASTAL SEGMENTATION


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DIVA

– CROATIAN

COASTLINE



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Croatia

– People

below

2m

in

2011



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Croatia

– Population

scenarios● We use 3 socio-

economic scenarios●

SSP3: poor, denselypopulated world● SSP5: rich, less densely

populated world● SSP2: in between● Declining population for

Croatia in all scenarios● 2100: 2.2 to 3.4 million

people● Source: SSPs, IIASA


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Croatia

– Sea

level

rise

scenarios● Three SLR scenarios:

RCP2.6, RCP4.5,RCP8.5

● All computed withHadGEM2-ES and anice-shield meltingprojection

● SLR for Croatia between28 and 105 cm in 2100

● Uplift included


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Croatia

– People

Flooded


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Croatia – People Flooded2100, SSP2, RCP4.5, no Adaptation


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COASTAL CONSTRUCTION TRENDS…



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4,3M 16,7M

6278 km

CROATIA NETHERLANDS

460 km

61 129

COAST LINE

GDP per capita in PPS

WHO WILL COVER THE COST…



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Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013CroAdapt ‐ Nacionalno savjetovanje: “Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj”, Zagreb, 23. siječ nja, 2014.


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Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013CroAdapt ‐ Nacionalno savjetovanje: “Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj”, Zagreb, 23. siječ nja, 2014.


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PURPOSE OF IZCM PLAN DEVELOPMENT

• Defining sustainable development policy of the Šibenik‐Knin County’s coastal zone

• Coordination of development initiatives

• Support to formulation of sectoral policies and plans

• Support to mainstreaming sectoral plans into coastal zone sust. development

policy


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LEGAL BASIS• ICZM Protocol

• Zoning Plan of the Šibenik‐Knin County• At national level, no legal obligations to prepare ICZM plans or CC adaptation plans exist yet

EXPECTED RESULTS• ICZM plan is not a zoning, normative or regulatory document, but an indicative plan

• It defines specially endangered areas in relation to coastal processes, particularly areas vulnerable to climate change and variability

• It suggests mitigation measures which should be incorporated into normative plans

• It defines a system of coastal zone management: instruments to avoid conflicts,achieve agreement and consensus • Primarily a long‐term plan, in line with the long‐term nature of the consequences of

coastal processes



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ICZM PLAN PREPARATION PROCESS

C

l i m a g i n e

D I V A

L

o c a l A s s e s s m e

n t

ICZM PLAN LAUNCH

ICZM PLAN ready for adoption

06/2014

01/2013



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1. Territory as

the

key

resource

of

coastal

zone

2. Climate variability and change, a transversal theme that impacts:

• waters

& water

management• infrastructure,

• biodiversity,

• economy and society.

3. Tools – GIS

THEMES:



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• Coastal resources • Development pressures/drivers

• Analysis of existing vulnerability/status

• Nature‐based

• Socio‐economic • Institutional

• Developmental and climatic scenarios

• Analysis of future vulnerability

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS:



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Dolac, 2012

Dolac, 2013

Jadrija

Pirovac, 2010 Tisno

Vodice, 2008


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Geospatial data analysis

• Ortophoto map• Topography• Administrative division

• Demographic data & economic statistics• Coastal zone • Hydrological data

• Physical planning data (purpose, infrastructure, protection)

• Protection of territory



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•Climate hazards

•Negative impacts of development processes

•Vulnerabilities

Geospatial analysis



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Impacts

Climatevariability

Existing

vulnerability

NaturalSocio-economic

Institutional

Endangered sectorsand zones

Existingadaptive

capacity Adaptationpossibilities

Development processes

Existing experience,data and knowledge

Climatechange

Coastal development

Developmental/physical plans

Climate projections and scenarios

Impacts,threats

opportunities

Future

vulnerability

NaturalSocio-economic

Institutional

Endangered sectorsand zones

Futureadaptive

capacity

Social development/Demographic processes

Accumulated knowledge

ICZM PlanClimate change

adaptation plan


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Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013CroAdapt ‐ Nacionalno savjetovanje: “Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj”, Zagreb, 23. siječ nja, 2014.

is a participatory method that enables identification of the vision ofsustainable development; describe, assess and question the past, presentand future sustainability levels of local systems by using sustainabilityindicators and thresholds; set the goals and define necessary monitoring

schemes for sustainable development achievements – with special focus onclimate change, all with the help of relevant social actors.

CLIMAGINE

What is Climagine?


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PARTICIPATORY APPROACH

ICZM PLAN LAUNCH

ICZM PLAN ready for adoption

Climagine 1

Climagine 2

Climagine 3

04/2013

11/2013

03/2014

06/2014

01/2013

Interviews with key actors

Field trip

07/2013

09/2013

Stakeholder analysis

Communication strategy

Interviews with key actors10/2013



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Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013Meeting to present initial resullts – DIVA and LA, Split, 4‐5 November, 2013CroAdapt ‐ Nacionalno savjetovanje: “Prilagodba klimatskim promjenama u Hrvatskoj”, Zagreb, 23. siječ nja, 2014.

• tourism

• coastline infrastructure (facilities, watersupply & sewage, ports/harbours,…)

• agriculture

• mariculture

• fires

• heat waves

• drinking water (accessibility, salinity, quality)

• pollution (industry near Knin)

• lake eutrophication

• sea level rise in Krka river estuary

• local economy on islands

• …

Themes identified

What did Climagine reveal?


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• Identified as the nearest climate hazard

• High temperatures, less precipitation and more drought periods will certainly

increase the

fire

hazards

(IPCC)

• Extended duration of fire season is expected, extreme conditions in many areas, as well as increased risk zones and higher probability of fires over large‐areas (ForestEurope, 2010)

• According to EFFIS database, Croatia is among the European countries with the highest

fire

hazard

OPEN‐AREA FIRES



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Average forest fire density and average burned forest percentage in Europe,

1998–2007

Source: FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010


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Thank You for your

attention!


05_croadapt_skugor_en.pdf

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