05/10/2001 the ima special event: vladimir keilis-borok 80th birthday festschrift 1 rise of...

05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift

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Rise of activity, i.e. inverse Rise of activity, i.e. inverse cascading, at the approach of cascading, at the approach of an extreme eventan extreme event

Vladimir Kossobokov

International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics,

Russian Academy of Sciences,

79-2 Warshavskoye Shosse, Moscow 113556, Russian Federation

Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris,

4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris, Cedex 05, France

E-mail: [email protected] or [email protected]


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OutlineOutline

Universality of multiple fracturing and cascading activity Example: The longest sequence of “starquakes” on Soft Gamma Repeater, SGR1806-20

Cascading of earthquakes by far more

diverse than a power-law family yet it implies…… Earthquake PredictionWhat stands behind?


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SeismicSeismicbackgroundbackground

A 5000-km segment of the area where the standard versions of M8 and MSc algorithms were setup for real-time monitoring.


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1992/011992/01


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1992/071992/07


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1993/011993/01


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1993/071993/07


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1994/011994/01


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1994/071994/07


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1995/011995/01


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1995/071995/07


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1996/011996/01


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1996/071996/07


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1997/011997/01


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1997/071997/07


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1998/011998/01


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1998/071998/07


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1999/011999/01


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1999/071999/07


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2000/012000/01


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2000/012000/01

The M8-MSc prediction pinpoints the epicenter and aftershocks of the 4 June 2000, Ms8.0 Southern Sumatera earthquake.


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SGR1806-20 sequenceSGR1806-20 sequence

Soft-Gamma-Repeater 1806-20 is the source in Sagittarius, from which more than a hundred X-ray pulsations have been detected. Its location on the sky (1806-20 refer to celestial coordinates: 18 hours 06 minutes right ascension,

-20 degrees declination) is near the Galactic center, which is 25,000 light years away.

The energy of one burst varies from 1.4·1040

erg to 5.3·1041 erg (the largest earthquakes release about 1026 erg).


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Common general featuresCommon general features

A fundamental property of multiple fracturing is the power-law distribution of energy log10N(E) = a + b·log10E

(Gutenberg-Richter relation)


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Symptoms of transition Symptoms of transition to the main ruptureto the main rupture

Escalation of fracturing lasting nearly 1000 days and culminated with the largest starquake on November 16

The power-law increase of activity, e.g. Benioff strain release (t), with a possible trace of the four log-periodic oscillations.


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Seismic premonitory patternsSeismic premonitory patterns

Pattern E2/3 Keilis-Borok & Malinovskaya, 1964

Pattern B Keilis-Borok, Knopoff & Rotwain, 1980

M8 algorithm Keilis-Borok & Kossobokov, 1990


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SSimilarity of starquakes and imilarity of starquakes and earthquakesearthquakes

Qualitative so far Gutenberg-Richter relation Premonitory changes Decay of “aftershocks” – Omori power-law

Starquakes evidence drastic expansion of the Realm of Multiple Fracturing previously observed from the lithosphere of the Earth to laboratory samples

Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok & Cheng, 2000


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How to explain such similarity?How to explain such similarity?

The simplest answer is –The simplest answer is –Multiple fracturing reflects scenarios

of critical transition, common for a broader class of non-linear systems

Turcotte, 1995. Fractals and Chaos in Geophysics.

Newman, Gabrielov, & Turcotte, editors. 1994. Nonlinear Dynamics and

Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena.


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Cascading of earthquakesCascading of earthquakes

Apparently more complicated than so far suggested power-laws…


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Bowman, Ouillon, Sammis, Sornette, & Sornette, 1998Bowman, Ouillon, Sammis, Sornette, & Sornette, 1998 It is still unclear if “the best fit”

is random… ?Free parameters:

dT, Mc, aftershocks


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Zoller, Hainzl Zoller, Hainzl

& Kurths, 2001& Kurths, 2001

Does “the best fit” fit

data points

?


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Does “the best fit” fit

data points

?

Romashkova & Romashkova &

Kossobokov, 2001Kossobokov, 2001


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Cascading of earthquakesCascading of earthquakes

… detectable by reproducible earthquake prediction methods

Case histories of the recent earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above prove it and evidence consecutive stages of inverse cascading of seismic activity to the main shock.


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Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc:

Magnitude 8.0 or more.

The significance level estimates use the most conservative measure of the alarm volume accounting for empirical distribution of epicenters.

Test period

Large earthquakes

Total Predicted by

M8 M8-MSc

Percentage of alarms

M8 M8-MSc

Significance, %

M8 M8-MSc

1985-2001

1992-2001

9 8 7

7 6 5

34.9 18.0

30.2 15.3

99.86 99.98

99.61 99.87


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How earthquake prediction How earthquake prediction methods work?methods work?

“Predicting earthquakes is as easy as one-two-three. Step 1: Deploy your precursor detection

instruments at the site of the coming earthquake. Step 2: Detect and recognize the precursors. Step 3: Get all your colleagues to agree and then

publicly predict the earthquake through approved channels.”

Scholz, C.H., 1997. Whatever happened to earthquake prediction. Geotimes, 42(3), 16-19

Routine seismological data bases, e.g. US GS/NEIC

Reproducible intermediate-term algorithms, e.g. M8

Number of earthquakes have been predicted


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What stands behind?What stands behind?

… Of course, the correct answer

is very uncertain

Geophysics is lacking continuous data over extended areas and times.

Hopefully, their collection has started.


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One example from ENE off TibetOne example from ENE off Tibet

An ULF electromagnetic signal around 21 July 1995, M5.7, Yong Deng (China) earthquake


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Schematic representation of Schematic representation of the electromagnetic station at Song Shanthe electromagnetic station at Song Shan

Two independent, 110 and 250 m long, lines


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Frequency-Time diagrams for the NS 250 m lineFrequency-Time diagrams for the NS 250 m line


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Signal evolutionSignal evolutionBoth Intensity and Period

GROW


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The signal start The signal start and collapseand collapse

The Yong Deng earthquake has occurred in a near vicinity of electromagnetic observations at the time when the characteristic ULF and/or its exponential show decrease, on the component pointing at epicenter.

The start of the ULF decrease was accompanied with a seismic activation of associate segment of Haiyuan fault system.

The collapse of the characteristic ULF happened before the Yong Deng aftershocks vanished exponentially.


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ConclusionConclusion

… an obvious one -More seismological and other data

should be analyzed systematically to establish reliable correlations between the occurrence of extreme earthquakes and observable geophysical phenomena


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This presentation was supported from the ISTC grant #1538.This presentation was supported from the ISTC grant #1538.

Bufe and Varnes, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 9,871-9,883, 1993 Global Hypocenters Data Base CD‑ROM, version III, 1994. NEIC/USGS, Denver,

CO. and its PDE and QED updates) Healy, Kossobokov, and Dewey, U. S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401, 1992. Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61:73-83, 1990 Keylis-Borok and Malinovskaya. J. Geophys. Res. 69: 3019-3024, 1964. Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok and Cheng, 2000. Phys. Rev. E, 61: 3529-3533 Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, Romashkova, and Healy. Phys. Earth and Planet.

Inter., 111, 3-4: 187-196, 1999. Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, and Smith. J. Geophys. Res., 95: 19763-19772, 1990. Romashkova and Kossobokov, Comput. Seismol., 32: 162-189, 2001. Sadovsky (Ed.). Long-Term Earthquake Prediction: Methodological

Recommendations, Moscow: Inst. Phys. Earth, 127 p. (in Russian), 1986. Varnes, Pure Appl. Geophys. 130, 661–686, 1989 Zlotnicki, Kossobokov and Le Mouël, 2001. Tectonophysics, 334, 3-4: 259-270

05/10/2001 the ima special event: vladimir keilis-borok 80th birthday festschrift 1 rise of...

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