05 carrera 20111012 carrera ec smap.ppt · microsoft powerpoint - 05 carrera...
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Assimilation and Impact Evaluation of SMAP Observations in Environment Canada’s
Numerical Prediction Systems
SMAP Applications Workshop, Washington DC, 12-13 October 2011
Stephane Belair and Marco Carrera
Science and Technology Branch,
Environment Canada
L
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MOTIVATION: WHY EC NEEDS SMAP OBSERVATIONS
Land Surface
Surface fluxes (H, LE, momentum)
Boundary-layer mixing
Near-surface air conditions
Clouds
Precipitation
Convective systems
Large-scale systems
Sp
ati
al a
nd
Tim
e s
cal
es
PROCESSES
Impact on numerical weather prediction (all scales, all ranges)
Impact on hydrological prediction
Impact on other types of environmental prediction (drought, air quality, urban)
New products in collaboration with partners (e.g., Agriculture Canada, Health Canada)
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ROLE of SMAP OBSERVATIONS in EC’s NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS
UPPER-AIRASSIMILATION
CaLDAS(n)
T T+6h
NWP FORECAST MODEL (FIRST GUESS)
NWP FORECAST MODELS
CaPAPr
CaLDAS(n)
Forcing
La
nd
var
iab
les
Global / RegionalDeterministic / Ensemble
Global 4DVARGlobal EnKFRegional 3DVAR
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ROLE of SMAP OBSERVATIONS in EC’s NUMERICAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS
UPPER-AIRASSIMILATION
CaLDAS(n)
T T+6h
NWP FORECAST MODEL (FIRST GUESS)
NWP FORECAST MODELS
CaPAPr
CaLDAS(n)
Forcing
La
nd
var
iab
les
Global / RegionalDeterministic / Ensemble
Global 4DVARGlobal EnKFRegional 3DVAR SMAP
OBSERVATIONS
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The CANADIAN LAND DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM (CaLDAS)
LANDMODEL
OBS
ASSIMILATION
xb
y (with ensemble Kalman filter or
simplified variational approach)
xa = xb+ K { y – H(xb) }
K = BHT ( HBHT+R)-1
with
CaLDASIN OUT
Ancillary land surface data
Atmospheric forcing
Observations
Land surface initial conditions for NWP and hydro systems
Land surface conditions for atmospheric
assimilation systems
Current state of land surface conditions
for other applications (agriculture, drought, ...
Screen-level (T, Td)Surface stations snow depthL-band passive (SMOS, SMAP)C-band active (ASCAT)MW passive (AMSR-E)Multispectral (MODIS)Combined products (GlobSnow)
T, q, U, V, Pr, SW, LW
Orography, vegetation, soils, water fraction, ...
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CURRENT RESEARCH at EC for SOIL MOISTURE DATA ASSIMILATION
Assimilation of screen-level data in all NWP systems (ensemble and deterministic, local to global, short-range to seasonal)
Synthetic experiments for the assimilation of L-band passive data
Assimilation of real SMOS data for the CanEx-SM10 experiment
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LAND SURFACE ANALYSES for the GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC and ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS
Global, 33km (for GDPS)
Obs: T_2m, Td_2m, SD
Ctrl variables: wg, w2, Ts, T2, SWE
48 members (or more)
Assimilation step: 3h or 6h (using obs from -2h to +2h)
First cycle from April 2008 to March 2009 ongoing
Impact on GDPS / GEPS is being evaluated
YIN YANG YIN-YANG
YIN
YANG
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GLOBAL ASSIMILATION of SOIL MOISTURE: MEAN INNOVATIONS for T2m (6h) (Belair et al, in preparation)
GDPS-OP
GDPS-CaLDAS
(K)
(August 2008)
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GLOBAL ASSIMILATION of SOIL MOISTURE: STD for T2m INNOVATIONS (6h) (Belair et al, in preparation)
(August 2008)
GDPS-OP
GDPS-CaLDAS
(K)
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ASSIMILATION of SCREEN-LEVEL DATA: IMPACTS (preliminary)
Objective evaluation:
Impact on medium-range prediction of near-surface T and Td
25 cases, from 18 June to 30 August 2008
All surface stations in Canada (~500)
BIAS
STDE
Temperature
Temperature
Dew point temperature
Dew point temperature
GDPS-CaLDAS
GDPS-OP
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SYNTHETIC ASSIMILATION of L-Band PASSIVE DATA for SOIL MOISTURE (Carrera et al., in preparation)SYNTHETIC Tb L-band (H-pol) at 40o (K)
Synthetic L-band TBs from 1km nature/reality run
Average at 40km and perturbed
Assimilated in CaLDAS
Comparison against “reality”
Useful for setting up CaLDAS configurations
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Canadian Experiment for Soil Moisture in 2010(CanEX-SM10)
• Originated as an experiment for Canadian researchers to support SMOSCal/Val activities over land and to develop soil moisture retrieval algorithms.
• Experiment was expanded to include pre-launch validation and algorithmdevelopment for SMAP through a collaboration with US scientists.
• Period : 31 May – 17 June 2010
• Study Sites :
• (i) Kenaston agricultural site (~ 80 km south of Saskatoon) (33 km x 71km).
• (ii) BERMS (Boreal Ecosystem and Research and Monitoring Sites) innorthern Saskatchewan (33 km x 71 km).
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CanEX-SM10
Kenaston Site :
• High-density network : 24permanent Environment Canadamonitoring sites with measurementsof soil moisture at depths of 5, 20and 50 cm.
• Low-density network : 16 sites operated by the University of Guelph recording soil moisture at depths of 5, 20 and 50 cm.
• Additional 20 manual survey sites were added for CanEX-SM10 which record soil moisture at a depth of 6 cm.
• National Research Council TwinOtter aircraft equipped with apassive microwave radiometermeasuring emission in L-band at40o incidence angle. NASAUAVSAR fully polarimetric L-bandradar.
Image courtesy R. Magagi
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Considerable inter-field variability in superficial soil moisture values.
Very wet conditions on the ground.
Temporal trends in soil
moisture captured well
by SMOS.
SMOS Level 1C Brightness Temperatures(40o Incidence Angle) – Exclusive alias free zone
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Problem : Persistent negative
soil moisture increments.
Indicates that work needs to be done
on the quality-control side.
5-cm soil moisture
Dry-Downs are too rapid and strong in the
EnKF run.
EnkF
Oloop
Mean soil moisture sfc-50 cm
Very Wet Soil Conditions : Assimilation in a near saturated environment
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Bias Correction : Forward Modelling ComparisonsComparisons First-Guess TB vs SMOS TBs : Kenaston Agricultural Site
CMEM : Community Microwave Emission Model
Dielectric Mixing Models : D (Dobson), W (Wang and Schmugge), M (Mironov)Vegetation Model : J (Jackson and Schmugge), K (Kirdyashev)Soil Roughness Model : W (Wigneron et al. 2007); Ws (Wigneron et al. 2001)
Sensitivity to Dieletric Mixing
ModelJackson
Vegetation
Sensitivity to Dieletric Mixing
ModelKirdyashev Vegetation
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Bias Correction : Forward Modelling ComparisonsComparisons First-Guess TB vs SMOS TBs : Kenaston Agricultural Site
CMEM : Community Microwave Emission Model
Strong sensitivity to soil roughness modelWigneron et al. (2007) vs Wigneron et al. (2001)
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Bias Correction : Forward Modelling ComparisonsComparisons First-Guess TB vs SMOS TBs : Kenaston Agricultural Site
CMEM : Community Microwave Emission Model
Sensitivity to Dieletric Mixing
ModelJackson
Vegetation
Sensitivity to Dieletric Mixing
ModelKirdyashev Vegetation
Agreement for TByy is not as good as TBxx.
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Bias Correction : Forward Modelling ComparisonsComparisons First-Guess TB vs SMOS TBs : Kenaston Agricultural Site
CMEM : Community Microwave Emission Model
Very poor correlations for the Wigneron et al. 2001 roughness parameterization.
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PROPOSED APPROACHES for CaLDAS
Currently operational: assimilation of screen-level data to analyze surface temperatures and soil moisture
Proposed-1: joint assimilation of screen-level, brightness temperatures, and backscatters for surface temperatures and soil moisture
Proposed-2: sequential assimilation... screen-level data for surface temperatures and SMAP data for soil moisture
Proposed-3: hybrid approach... screen-level data used as forcing (stronger constraint on first guesses) and SMAP data assimilated for soil moisture
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tta
HRx t
bHRx
HRy
tbH HRHR xyK
HR model
HRB
HRR
PREVIOUSANALYSIS
BACKGROUNDand
OBSERVATIONS
NEWANALYSIS
HIGH-RESOLUTION
(1-3 km)
LOW-RESOLUTION(10km-40km) Passive obs at
low resolution
taHRx
ASSIMILATION of PASSIVE / ACTIVE SMAP OBSERVATIONSOPTION: HIGH-RESOLUTION ASSIMILATION (LOCAL/REGIONAL)
Ensemble at high resolution
Tby
Analysis at high resolution
Downscaling
Active obs at high resolution
y
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tta
MRx t
bMRx
tbH MRMR xyK
MR model
MRB
MRR
PREVIOUSANALYSIS
BACKGROUNDand
OBSERVATIONS
NEWANALYSIS
MEDIUM-RESOLUTION
(10 km)
Active / Passive retrievals
taMRx
ASSIMILATION of PASSIVE / ACTIVE SMAP OBSERVATIONSOPTION: MEDIUM-RES ASSIMILATION (GLOBAL)
Ensemble at medium resolution
Analysis at medium resolution
SMAP_y
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HOW we ARE PROCEEDING
Continue current approach for the assimilation of screen-level data (implementations in 2012-2013)
Synthetic tests for passive and active L-band data (prior to launch)
Synthetic evaluation of impacts on NWP (and possibly hydrological) systems
Assimilation of real SMAP data (post-launch)
Generation of Canadian products for SMAP
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THANK YOU for your ATTENTION
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CaLDAS within the Global model data assimilation cycle
OBST + 6h
OBST + 9h
OBST + 9h
OBST + 9h
OBST + 3h
OBST + 3h
OBST + 3h
06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC00 UTC
240hglobal
fcst
9-hglobal
first guess
9-hglobal
first guess
9-hglobal
first guess
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
9-hglobal
first guess
9-hglobal
first guess
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
4D-VarAnalysis
OBST + 6h
144hglobal
fcstG1
G2
CaLDAS
CaLDAS
CaLDAS
CaLDAS
SF
C I
.C.
SF
C I
.C.
AT
MO
SP
HE
RIC
FO
RC
ING
AT
MO
SP
HE
RIC
FO
RC
ING
G2 = Global Assimilation CycleG1 = Global Forecast Run
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Problem : Persistent negative soil
moisture increments.
Indicates that work needs to be done on the quality-control
side.
5-cm soil moisture
Dry-Downs are too rapid and strong in the
EnKF run.