05 2009 elec pjm archive

8/8/2019 05 2009 Elec Pjm Archive

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Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Market Oversight @ FERC.gov

P J M El e c t r i c M a r k e t : Ov e r v i e w a n d Fo c a l Po i n t s

1045

PJM Electric Market

Page 1 of 17

May 2009


2/17


Updated May 3, 2007


1045

Overview

Market Description: PJM Interconnection (PJM)

Geography

States covered: All or most of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, District of Columbia, Virginia, WestVirginia and Ohio. Parts of Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina and Tennessee.

Reliability region: Reliability First Corporation (RFC) and SERC Reliability Corporation (SERC)

Balancing authority: PJM

Load zones: Allegheny Power Systems (APS), American Electric Power (AEP), Atlantic Electric Power Company, Inc.(AECO), Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE), ComEd, Dayton Power and Light Company (DAY), DelmarvaPower and Light Company (DPL), Dominion (DOM), Duquesne Light (DUQ), Jersey Central Power and LightCompany (JCPL), Metropolitan Edison Company (METED), PPL Electric Utilities (PPL), PECO Energy (PECO),Pennsylvania Electric Company (PENELEC), Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO), Public Service Electric and

Gas Company (PSEG), and Rockland Electric Company (RECO).

Hubs: AEP GEN, AEP-Dayton, Chicago GEN, Chicago, Dominion, Eastern, N. Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, West INT,Western.

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May 2009


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Updated August 3, 2007


1045

RTO/ISO

PJM Interconnection (PJM) operates the regions power grid and wholesale electric markets:

Energy market: two-settlement (day ahead and real-time) spot market with locational marginal pricing (pricesare calculated at each bus every five minutes),Capacity market,

Ancillary services markets, andFinancial transmission rights (FTR) market.

Energy and capacity in the region are also traded bilaterally through brokers and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).

PJM 2007 State of the Markets ReportMarket Monitor: Joseph E. Bowring Internal Market Monitor

Generation/Supply

Marginal fuel type: Coal and natural gas

Generating capacity (summer 2006): 164,634 MW

Capacity reserve (summer 2006): 19,990 MW

Reserve margin (summer 2006): 14%Demand

All time peak demand: 144,644 MW (set August 2, 2006)

In summer of 2006, demand reached record levels on several occasions due to extremely hot weather.

Peak demand growth: 8.1 % (2005-2006)

Summer Peak Demand (MW) 133,762 (2005) 144,644 (2006) ( Source: PJM)

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May 2009
http://www.pjm.com/markets/market-monitor/som.htmlhttp://www.pjm.com/markets/market-monitor/som.html


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Updated May 13, 2008


1045

Prices

Annual Average Day-Ahead Price

PJM Western Hub (a basket of 109 buses stretching from Erie PA to Washington DC)2004: $41.73/MWh

2005: $60.89/MWh2006: $50.07/MWh2007: $56.87/MWh

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May 2009


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Supply and Demand Statistics for PJM

Updated May 16, 2007 Source: Derived from PJM data.

PJM Elec t r i c Mark e t : Supp ly and Demand

1046

2004 2005 2006Summer Generating Capacity MW 106,250 166,950 164,634Summer Peak Demand MW 77,887 133,762 144,644

Summer Reserves MW 28,363 33,188 19,990Summer Reserve Margin: 36% 25% 14%Annual Load (GWh): 438,874 684,592 696,165Annual Net Generation GWh 441,778 701,443 714,091

Supply Demand Statistics

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May 2009


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Annual Average Bilateral Prices

Source: Derived from Platts data.

PJ M El e c t r i c M a r k e t : A n n u a l B i l a t e r a l Pr i c e s

1047Updated February 6, 2009

Annual Average Day Ahead On Peak Prices ($/MWh)2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 5-Year Avg

Mass Hub $61.47 $89.87 $69.85 $77.39 $91.55 $78.01Ny Zone G $61.74 $92.46 $75.95 $83.51 $100.99 $82.91NY Zone J $76.67 $110.03 $85.96 $94.15 $112.63 $95.87NY Zone A $52.49 $76.04 $58.70 $64.02 $68.34 $63.91PJM West $51.10 $76.64 $61.90 $71.15 $83.70 $68.88

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May 2009


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Daily Average of PJM Day-Ahead Prices - All Hours

Source: Derived by Bloomberg from PJM data as reported by Bloomberg .

P J M E l ec t r i c M a r k e t : L a s t M o n t h s RT O P r ic e s

1131

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

4 / 1 / 0 9

4 / 4 /

0 9

4 / 7 /

0 9

4 / 1 0 / 0

9

4 / 1 3 / 0

9

4 / 1 6 / 0 9

4 / 1 9 / 0

9

4 / 2 2 / 0

9

4 / 2 5 / 0

9

4 / 2 8 / 0

9

P r i c e

( $ / M W h )

N Illinois Hub

Eastern Hub

Western HubDominion Hub

30 Day Rolling Average

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140

J a n - 0

7

A p r - 0

7 J u

l - 0 7

O c t - 0

7

J a n - 0

8

A p r - 0

8 J u

l - 0 8

O c t - 0

8

J a n - 0

9

A p r - 0

9

Updated May 7, 2009

Page 7 of 17

May 2009

P g 8 f 17


8/17


Daily Average of PJM Day-Ahead Prices - All Hours

Source: Derived by Bloomberg from PJM data as reported by Bloomberg .

P J M E l e c t r i c M a r k e t : RT O Pr i c e s

1048

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

J a n - 0 8

F e b - 0 8

M a r - 0 8

A p r - 0 8

M a y - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

J u l - 0

8

A u g - 0 8

S e p - 0 8

O c t - 0

8

N o v - 0 8

D e c - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

F e b - 0 9

M a r - 0 9

A p r - 0 9

P r i c e

( $ / M W h )

N Illinois Hub

Eastern Hub

Western Hub

Dominion Hub

30 Day Rolling Average

$0

$40

$80

$120

$160

J a n -

0 3

J u l - 0

3

J a n -

0 4

J u l - 0

4

J a n -

0 5

J u l - 0

5

J a n -

0 6

J u l - 0

6

J a n -

0 7

J u l - 0

7

J a n -

0 8

J u l - 0

8

J a n -

0 9

Updated May 7, 2009

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May 2009

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9/17


Eastern Daily Bilateral Day-Ahead On-Peak Prices


PJ M El e c t r i c M a r k e t : Ea s t e r n B i l a t e r a l P r i c e s

1049

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

J a n - 0 8 F e

b - 0 8 M a

r - 0 8 A p

r - 0 8

M a y - 0

8 J u n

- 0 8 J u l

- 0 8 A u

g - 0 8

S e p - 0

8 O c

t - 0 8 N o

v - 0 8

D e c - 0

8 J a n

- 0 9 F e

b - 0 9 M a

r - 0 9 A p

r - 0 9

Into Cinergy

PJM West

Dominion Hub

West New YorkMass Hub

Monthly Average

-$15$10$35$60$85

$110$135$160

J a n - 0 4 M a

y - 0 4

S e p - 0

4 J a n

- 0 5 M a

y - 0 5

S e p - 0

5 J a n

- 0 6 M a

y - 0 6

S e p - 0

6 J a n

- 0 7 M a

y - 0 7

S e p - 0

7 J a n

- 0 8 M a

y - 0 8

S e p - 0

8 J a n

- 0 9 M a

y - 0 9

P r i c e (

$ / M W h )

Updated May 7, 2009

Page 9 of 17

May 2009

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10/17


Eastern Daily Bilateral Day-Ahead On-Peak Prices


PJ M E l e c t r i c M a r k e t : L a s t M o n t h s Ea s t e r n B i l a t e r a l P r i c e s

13562

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

4 / 1 / 2 0

0 9

4 / 3 / 2 0

0 9

4 / 5 / 2 0

0 9

4 / 7 / 2 0

0 9

4 / 9 / 2 0

0 9

4 / 1 1

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 1 3

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 1 5

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 1 7

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 1 9

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 2 1

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 2 3

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 2 5

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 2 7

/ 2 0 0 9

4 / 2 9

/ 2 0 0 9

Into Cinergy

PJM West

West New York

Mass Hub

Dominion Hub

Monthly Average

-$15$10$35$60$85

$110$135$160

J a n - 0

7

A p r - 0

7 J u

l - 0 7

O c t - 0

7

J a n - 0

8

A p r - 0

8 J u

l - 0 8

O c t - 0

8

J a n - 0

9

A p r - 0

9

P r i c e (

$ / M W h )

Updated May 7, 2009

Page 10 of 17

May 2009

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11/17


Implied Heat Rates at Eastern Trading PointsWeekly Averages

Source: Derived from Platts data

PJM Elec t r i c Mark e t : Eas t e rn Im p l i ed Hea t Ra t e s

1138Updated May 7, 2009

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

J a n - 0 8

F e b - 0 8

M a r - 0 8

A p r - 0 8

M a y - 0 8

J u n - 0 8

J u l - 0

8

A u g - 0 8

S e p - 0 8

O c t - 0

8

N o v - 0 8

D e c - 0 8

J a n - 0 9

F e b - 0 9

M a r - 0 9

A p r - 0 9

I m p l

i e d H e a

t R a t e

( B t u / k W h )

East New York Zone J-Transco Zone 6 NY

PJM West-Columbia Gas Appalachia

West New York-Niagara

Mass Hub-Tennessee Zone 6

g

May 2009

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12/17


Weekly Electric Generation Output and TemperaturesMid Atlantic Region

PJM Elec t r i c Mark e t : Gene ra t ion Ou tpu t and Tempera tu re s

1113Source: Derived from EEI and NOAA data.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

E l e c

t r i c G e n e r a t

i o n ( G W h )

2004-2008 Range

2009

-100-75-50-25

0255075

100125

W a r m e r

T e m p e r a

t u r e s

t h a n

N o r m a l

( D e g r e e

D a y s

2009

Heating SeasonHeating Season Cooling Season

Updated May 7, 2009

May 2009

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13/17


Weekly Electric Generation Output and TemperaturesCentral Industrial Region

PJM Elec t r i c Mark e t : Gene ra t ion Ou tpu t and Tempera tu re s

1114Source: Derived from EEI and NOAA data.

02,000

4,0006,0008,000

10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

E l e c t r i c

G e n e r a t

i o n ( G W h )

2004-2008 Range2009

-150-120

-90-60-30

0306090

120150

W a r m e r

T e m p e r a

t u r e s

t h a n

N o r m a l

( D e g r e e

D a y s )

2009

Heating SeasonHeating Season Cooling Season

Updated May 7, 2009

May 2009

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14/17


PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE Capacity Prices

PJM Elec t r i c Mark et : RTO Capaci t y Pr ic es

1146

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

PJM PJMSWMAAC

PJM DPL-South

NYISONYC

NYISOROS

$ / k W - y r

2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006

2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009

2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012

Note: PJM values are for Base Residual Auctions only.ISO-NE results for 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 are based on preliminary FCM auction before pro-rationing and EAS adjustment.Source: Derived from PJM, NYISO and ISO-NE data Updated February 6, 2009

May 2009

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PJM West Electric Forward Price Curvesand Implied Heat Rates

Source: Derived from Nymex data.

PJ M El e c t r i c M a r k e t : Fo r w a r d P r i c e C ur v e

1052Updated May 7, 2009

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

E l e c t r i c

P r i c e

( $ / M W h )

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

G a s

P r i c e

( $ M M B t u )

PJM West Columbia Gas Appalachia

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

J u n 0

9

A u g 0 9

O c t 0 9

D e c 0 9

F e b 1

0

A p r 1 0

J u n 1

0

A u g 1 0

O c t 1 0

D e c 1 0

I m p l

i e d H

e a t R a t e

May 2009

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PJM Western Hub Forward and Swap Volumes

Source: Derived from ICE and Nymex ClearPort data. ICE on-peak forward (physical) and swap (financial)volumes are for PJMs Western Hub and include monthly, dual monthly, quarterly, and calendar year contracts traded for each month. Nymex ClearPort on-peak swap (financial) volumes are for PJMs WesternHub traded b month.

PJ M E l e c t r i c M a r k e t : Ph y s i c a l & Fi n a n c i a l M a r k e t Vo l u m e s

1050

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

J a n - 0

8

F e b - 0

8 M a

r - 0 8

A p r - 0

8

M a y - 0

8

J u n - 0

8 J u l - 0

8 A u

g - 0 8

S e p - 0

8 O c

t - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

D e c - 0

8 J a

n - 0 9

F e b - 0

9 M a

r - 0 9

A p r - 0

9

M a y - 0

9

J u n - 0

9 J u l - 0

9 A u

g - 0 9

S e p - 0

9 O c

t - 0 9

N o v - 0

9

D e c - 0

9

T h o u s a n

d s o f

G W h

ICE PJM Swaps Volume

ICE PJM Forwards Volume

ClearPort PJM Swaps

Updated May 7, 2009

May 2009

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17/17


Daily Settlement Price, Monthly Volume and Open Interest

Source: Derived from Nymex data.

PJM Elec t r i c Marke t : Month ly Fu tu res Con t rac t

1107

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

1 / 1 / 0 6

1 / 3 1 / 0 6

3 / 2 / 0 6

4 / 1 / 0 6

5 / 1 / 0 6

5 / 3 1 / 0 6

6 / 3 0 / 0 6

7 / 3 0 / 0 6

8 / 2 9 / 0 6

9 / 2 8 / 0 6

1 0 / 2 8 / 0 6

1 1 / 2 7 / 0 6

1 2 / 2 7 / 0 6

1 / 2 6 / 0 7

2 / 2 5 / 0 7

3 / 2 7 / 0 7

4 / 2 6 / 0 7

5 / 2 6 / 0 7

6 / 2 5 / 0 7

7 / 2 5 / 0 7

8 / 2 4 / 0 7

9 / 2 3 / 0 7

1 0 / 2 3 / 0 7

1 1 / 2 2 / 0 7

1 2 / 2 2 / 0 7

1 / 2 1 / 0 8

2 / 2 0 / 0 8

3 / 2 1 / 0 8

4 / 2 0 / 0 8

5 / 2 0 / 0 8

6 / 1 9 / 0 8

7 / 1 9 / 0 8

8 / 1 8 / 0 8

9 / 1 7 / 0 8

1 0 / 1 7 / 0 8

1 1 / 1 6 / 0 8

1 2 / 1 6 / 0 8

1 / 1 5 / 0 9

2 / 1 4 / 0 9

3 / 1 6 / 0 9

4 / 1 5 / 0 9

0

50

100

150

200

J a n - 0 6

F e b

- 0 6 M a

r - 0 6

A p r - 0

6

M a y

- 0 6 J u n

- 0 6 J u l

- 0 6

A u g -

0 6

S e p

- 0 6 O c

t - 0 6

N o v - 0

6

D e c -

0 6 J a n

- 0 7

F e b

- 0 7 M a

r - 0 7

A p r - 0

7

M a y

- 0 7 J u n

- 0 7 J u l

- 0 7

A u g -

0 7

S e p

- 0 7 O c

t - 0 7

N o v - 0

7

D e c -

0 7 J a n

- 0 8

F e b

- 0 8 M a

r - 0 8

A p r - 0

8

M a y

- 0 8 J u n

- 0 8 J u l

- 0 8

A u g -

0 8

S e p

- 0 8 O c

t - 0 8

N o v - 0

8

D e c -

0 8 J a n

- 0 9

F e b

- 0 9 M a

r - 0 9

A p r - 0

9

Clearport VolumeOpen Interest

N u m

b e r o

f C o n

t r a c t s

( T h o u s a n

d s )

F u

t u r e

S e t

t l e m e n

t P r i c e

( $ / M W h )

Updated May 7, 2009

May 2009

05 2009 elec pjm archive

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