02.09.2014 china's top commodity trends and what this means for mongolia, john johnson
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
China’s top commodity trends and what
this means for Mongolia John Johnson, CEO CRU China
Prepared for:
Invest Mongolia 2014, UB
2nd September, 2014
![Page 2: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• China’s Top 10 Commodities.
• Will China’s economic restructuring lead
to less imports of key commodities?
• Or will environmental issues reduce
production levels and create opportunities
for imports?
• Future megatrends, prices and margins.
• What opportunities are there for
Mongolian commodities in China?
Agenda
![Page 3: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
China’s top 10 commodities
CRU China 10 report
3
Rank Commodity Value $ billion Value $ billion Value $ billion
2004 2013 2023
1 Steel 143 582 893
2 Coal 111 411 506
3 Aluminium 13 58 122
4 Copper 7 53 116
5 Fertilisers 9 37 42
6 Stainless Steel 6 26 56
7 Gold 2 18 16
8 Zinc 3 13 29
9 Lead 2 11 15
10 Tin 1 4 6
Top Ten Total Value 297 1213 1801
Proportion of China's GDP 15% 14% 7%
Data: CRU
China's ten largest commodities, by value of production, 2004, 2013, 2023
![Page 4: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
China’s economic restructuring…
4
![Page 5: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
…accompanied by cost increases…
5
![Page 6: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
…leads to China’s commodity importance declining
6
![Page 7: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
But will it lead to less commodity imports?
7
![Page 8: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The answer is no, with imports largely rising
8
![Page 9: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Will environmental issues reduce production?
9
![Page 10: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
1. China will continue to be resource constrained
2. Environmental issues will escalate
3. Structural changes will disproportionately impact different
commodities
4. China production costs will increase more than in most other
countries
5. Domestic margins will remain under pressure
Five important Chinese Megatrends
10
![Page 11: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Future prices and margins differ by commodity
11
![Page 12: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
China still presents some opportunities for
Mongolia, despite the slowdown, in coal
12
![Page 13: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
China still presents some opportunities for
Mongolia, despite the slowdown, in copper conc.
13
![Page 14: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
China still presents some opportunities for
Mongolia, despite the slowdown, in iron ore
14
![Page 15: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
China may also present Mongolia opportunities in
other commodities such as:
Gold Zinc Tin
15
![Page 16: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
16
![Page 17: 02.09.2014 China's top commodity trends and what this means for Mongolia, John Johnson](https://reader030.vdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022021507/58e9e6cf1a28aba2208b45e5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Thank you
John Johnson
CEO CRU China
CRU | THE INDEPENDENT AUTHORITY
517 Tower 2, Bright China Chang An Building, 7 Jianguomennei Avenue, Beijing 100005, China
Phone: +86 10 65102208
Mobile: +86 13911122605
http://www.crugroup.com