02. the world rubber industry – review and prospects to 2020- stephen evans.pdf
DESCRIPTION
world rubberTRANSCRIPT
The World Rubber Industry: review to 2020
India Rubber Expo 2011
Chennai, India
19-21 January 2011
Prepared by the IRSG Secretariat
www.rubberstudy.com
International Rubber Study Group
Themes
World economy as defined by GDP
Vehicle Sector
Tyre sector
Rubber demand forecast
Rubber supply forecast
Potential supply constraints
Potential pricing direction
Data Sources
World economy as defined by GDP is provided by the
IMF and last published in October 2010. Beyond 2015,
IRSG uses its own model projections.
Rubber demand forecast as defined by IRSG
Vehicle and Tyre sector data supported by LMC
Natural Rubber supply potential as defined by IRSG
Oil price forecast as defined by US EIA, May 2010
Feedstock and Synthetic Rubber sector data supported
by CMAI & IISRP.
Global GDP Growth (IMF sourced, %)
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Vehicles in Use, (Millions of Units)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PC
LCV
M/HCV
Vehicle Production, (Millions of Units)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PC
LCV
M/HCV
Growth in Vehicle Production, (% per annum)
% Annual Growth
Passenger Cars Commercial
Vehicles
2008 -4.7 -1.4
2009 -12.4 -22.7
2010 20.1 29.9
2011 7.4 18.3
2012 6.6 8.3
2015 3.8 0.3
2018 -0.2 -3.9
2020 1.6 2.1
Vehicle Tyre Sales, Original Equipment,
(Millions of Units)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PC
LCV
M/HCV
Vehicle Tyre Sales, Replacement, (Millions of Units)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
PC
LCV
M/HCV
Growth in Tyre Sales, (% per annum)
% Annual Growth
Passenger Car
Tyres
Commercial
Vehicle Tyres
2008 -2.6 -0.9
2009 -5.4 -10.3
2010 10.6 16.2
2011 6.1 11.0
2012 5.5 8.2
2015 4.0 4.0
2018 1.9 0.8
2020 3.5 4.8
Rubber Consumption 2020, (Millions of MT)
Tyres 21.4 General Rubber Goods 12.5 Total 33.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Natural Rubber Consumption 2020 (Millions of MT)
Tyres 11.4 General Rubber Goods 3.9 Total 15.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2005 2010 2015 2020
Synthetic Rubber Consumption 2020 (Millions of MT)
Tyres 9.9 General Rubber Goods 8.6 Total 18.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005 2010 2015 2020
Global Rubber Consumption by Type to 2020, (Millions of MT)
Natural Rubber 15.4 Synthetic Rubber 18.5 Total 33.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Tyre Rubber Consumption by Type to 2020, (Millions of MT)
Natural Rubber 11.4 Synthetic Rubber 9.9 Total 21.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2010 2015 2020
Global Rubber Consumption by Type to 2020
Low Oil Price Scenario (Millions of MT)
IMF Natural Rubber 15.4 Synthetic Rubber 18.5 Total 33.9
Low Oil Natural Rubber 14.9 Synthetic Rubber 19.0 Total 33.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
World Rubber Consumption, (Millions MT)
Consumption
Total Rubber
Volume
Million MT
Annual Growth
%
2008 22.8 -2.5
2009 21.1 -7.5
2010 24.3 15.3
2011 25.8 6.3
2012 27.3 5.5
2015 30.4 3.6
2018 32.5 0.2
2020 33.9 3.3
Rubber Consumption, (KT)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
China
Europe
India
Japan
USA
Global
Global Natural Rubber Consumption, (Millions of MT)
Consumption
Natural Rubber
Volume
MT
Annual Growth
%
2008 10.2 0.0
2009 9.3 -9.1
2010 10.7 15.0
2011 11.2 4.6
2012 11.6 3.9
2015 13.1 4.3
2018 14.4 1.5
2020 15.4 4.1
Global Synthetic Rubber Consumption, (Millions of MT)
Consumption
Synthetic Rubber
Volume
MT
Annual Growth
%
2008 12.6 -4.7
2009 11.8 -6.3
2010 13.6 15.6
2011 14.7 7.6
2012 15.7 6.7
2015 17.3 3.0
2018 18.1 -0.8
2020 18.5 2.7
Natural Rubber Consumption Share to 2020 (%)
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Global Natural Rubber Normal Production, (KT)
0
2500
5000
7500
10000
12500
15000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Total 13.8 million MT in 2020
Thailand Age Distribution of Area (KHa)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
<0-6> <7-13> <14-20> <21-27> <28-34> <35 +>
Thailand Natural Rubber Production (KT)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Indonesia Smallholding Age Distribution of Area (KHa)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
<0-6> <7-13> <14-20> <21-27> <28-34> <35 +>
Indonesia Natural Rubber Production (KT)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Malaysia Smallholding Age Distribution of Area (KHa)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
<35 +> <28-34> <21-27> <14-20> <7-13> <0-6>
Malaysia Natural Rubber Production (KT)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Vietnam Age Distribution of Area (KHa)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
<35 +> <28-34> <21-27> <14-20> <7-13> <0-6>
Vietnam Natural Rubber Production (KT)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Synthetic Rubber Supply to 2020
IRSG has historically assumed that monomer
feedstocks and manufacturing capacity is available on
an unlimited basis, going forward.
Based on recent market experience, with
petrochemical cracker diets going lighter, butadiene
supply being constrained, plus its price becoming
uncoupled from traditional crude oil price drivers,
this above narrow view must now be challenged and
built into future scenarios for modeling activities.
Butadiene Demand 2014, (KT)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
ABS
Adiponitrile
Synthetic
Rubber
Others
Butadiene Supply 2014, (KT)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
BD Capacity
BD Production
BD Demand
C4 Supply
Olefin Cracker Yields, (MT for MT of Feedstock)
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
Ethane Propane Butane Naphtha Gas Oil
Bitumen
Gas oil
Gasoline
Fuel gas
Butadiene
Butylene
Propylene
Ethylene
Theoretical Global Natural Rubber Scenarios (KT)
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
16000
2000 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Actual Production
Demand
Negative Factors
New Surge NP
Normal Production
Theoretical Global Synthetic Rubber Scenarios (KT)
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Actual Production
Demand
Nameplate Capacity
Price Trends (USD per MT)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
NR
BR
BD
Crude
Crude Oil Price to 2020, (EIA sourced in USD per barrel)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Price Ratio Trends
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
NR-Crude
SR-Crude
BD-Crude
SR-BD
NR-BD
NR-SR
Conclusions
Supply of Natural Rubber (based on Normal Production)
and Synthetic Rubber (based on Nameplate Capacity) are
both undersupplied by more than 1MMT each by 2020
versus premised demand.
Current high market prices for Natural Rubber may
stimulate a further surge in new planting area as last
seen in the 2005-08 period, which is not fully reflected
in current supply forecasts.
It is vital to understand the global Oil – Natural Gas
position and their impact on Butadiene and Synthetic
Rubber availability and price going forward.
International Rubber Study Group
Who are we?
Established in 1944 as an inter-governmental
organisation, headquartered in London, UK
As of July 2008, the Group has been based in Singapore.
IRSG is the forum for the discussion of matters affecting
the supply and demand for natural as well as synthetic
rubber.
Authoritative source of statistical data and analysis for
all aspects of the rubber industry.
PLEASE COME AND JOIN IRSG AND TALK TO US!!!
Thank You for Your Attention
International Rubber Study Group