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The futures of safety,

compensation and recovery:

Final report on theFutures Research Initiative

Fawkes S, Palmer J, Inayatullah S, Burke R, Miller M, Worland P, Ellis N

Institute for Safety, Compensation

and Recovery Research Futures Workshop

27 October 2010

Queens Hall, Parliament House, Melbourne

August 2011Research Report # 0811-017-R2

Accompanying documents to this report

Title Report number

The futures of safety, compensation and

recovery A brief report on the Futures

Research Initiative

Research Report No. 0811-017-R1


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Research Report No. 0811-017-R1 Page 2of 105

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ....................................................................................... 5

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................... 7

2. INTRODUCTION AND AIMS .................................................................................... 8

3. METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................... 9

4. METHODS .............................................................................................................. 11

4.1 OVERVIEW 11

4.2 METHODS: HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT 12

4.2.1 DATA MINING 12

4.2.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 15

4.3 METHODS: STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT 15

4.3.1 WARM UP WORKSHOPS 15

4.3.2 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) 15

4.3.3 FUTURES WORKSHOP: OVERVIEW 184.3.4 FUTURES WORKSHOP: INTRODUCTION 18

4.3.5 FUTURES WORKSHOP: EXPLANATION OF FUTURES THINKING 19

4.3.6 FUTURES WORKSHOP: VIDEO 19

4.3.7 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FISHBOWL 19

4.3.8 FUTURES WORKSHOP: REPORT ON ONLINE BLOG DISCUSSIONS 20

4.3.9 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEEL EXERCISE, SCENARIODEVELOPMENT AND BACKCASTING 20

4.3.10 FUTURES WORKSHOP: PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS 22

4.4 METHODS: ISCRR ANALYSIS AND REPORTS 23

5. RESULTS OF HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT ................................................. 23

5.1 DATA MINING 23

5.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY 24


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6.0 RESULTS OF STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT ....................................... 24

6.1 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) 24

6.2 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEELS AND SCENARIOS 266.2.1 GROUP 1: DIVERSITY IS EMBRACED, PEOPLE ARE MORE VALUABLE27

6.2.2 GROUP 2: NEW WAYS OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS 29

6.2.3 GROUP 3: GREATER FOCUS ON EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS 32

6.2.4 GROUP 4: 30% OF SCHEME BUDGET IS PREVENTION 36

6.2.5 GROUP 5: BROADER WAYS OF MEASURING SUCCESS IN IMPROVINGHEALTH OF SOCIETY 39

6.2.6

GROUP 6: UNIVERSAL CARE FOR SUPPORT AND DISABILITY 41

6.2.7 GROUP 7: EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON TRUST 45

6.2.8 GROUP 8: NEW PARTNERSHIPS AND RELATIONSHIPS IN THE SYSTEM TARGETED PROVIDERS 49

6.3 EMERGING KNOWLEDGE NEEDS AND PRIORITY RESEARCH AREAS 52

6.3.1 INTERVENTION RESEARCH 52

6.3.2 INDICATORS AND MEASURES 53

6.3.3 SOCIAL RESEARCH 546.3.4 TRANSLATION RESEARCH 54

6.3.5 SYSTEM CAPACITY RESEARCH 54

6.3.6 SUMMARY 54

7. RESULTS OF ISCRR ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION .......................................... 55

7.1 INTRODUCTION 55

7.2 ANALYSIS OF HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT 55

7.3 ANALYSIS OF ONLINE BLOG DISCUSSIONS 57

7.4 OVERVIEW OF STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE SCENARIOS 58

7.5 BIG IDEAS EMERGING FROM SCENARIOS 59

7.6 PREVENTIVE VERSUS COMPENSATION FOCUS IN TIMES OF BOOM ANDBUST 61

7.7 PARTNERSHIPS VERSUS GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP IN TIMES OF

BOOM AND BUST 63

7.8 FUTURES OF SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY IN A NATIONALAND GLOBAL CONTEXT 66


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8. FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE: METHODOLOGY ASSESSMENT .............. 68

8.1 EVALUATION OF METHODOLOGY IN DEVELOPING NEW KNOWLEDGE 68

8.2 EVALUATION OF METHODOLOGY IN PROMOTING STAKEHOLDERENGAGEMENT 70

9. CONCLUSION ........................................................................................................ 71

10. APPENDICES ......................................................................................................... 72

APPENDIX 1.METHODOLOGY USING THE SIX PILLARS OF STRATEGICFORESIGHT 73

APPENDIX 2.EXAMPLE OF AN ONLINE DISCUSSION SCREEN (OHS BLOG) 76

APPENDIX 3.STRUCTURE FOR ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) SUMMARIES 77

APPENDIX 4.SYNOPSIS OF BLOGS 78

APPENDIX 5.FUTURES WORKSHOP PROGRAM 80

APPENDIX 6.LIST OF FUTURES WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS 82

APPENDIX 7.WELCOME LETTER FROM ISCRR BOARD CHAIR 87

APPENDIX 8.PURPOSES OF SCENARIOS 88

APPENDIX 9.THREE SCENARIO METHODS 89

APPENDIX 10. STEPS IN CONSTRUCTING FUTURES WHEELS 91

APPENDIX 11. PARTICIPATION IN ONLINE DISCUSSIONS 92

APPENDIX 12. RESEARCH QUESTIONS IN ORDER OF VOTES RECEIVED 93

APPENDIX 13. RESEARCH QUESTIONS NOT PUT UP FOR VOTING 95

APPENDIX 14.RESEARCH QUESTIONS CLASSIFIED BY DOMAIN OF RESEARCH * 96

APPENDIX 15. FEEDBACK FORM - ISCRR FUTURES WORKSHOP 98

APPENDIX 16. SUMMARY OF ISCRR FUTURES WORKSHOP FEEDBACK

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LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES

FIGURE 1. METHODOLOGICAL SEQUENCE ................................................................................. 9FIGURE 2. PATH OF KNOWLEGE FLOWS IN THE FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE ............ 10

FIGURE 3. CONTINUUM OF FUTURES STUDIES METHODS .................................................... 11

FIGURE 4. OVERVIEW OF FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE ACTIVITIES .............................. 12

TABLE 1. THOUGHT LEADERS FOR ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS) .................................... 16

FIGURE 5. GROUP 1: FUTURES WHEEL ...................................................................................... 27

FIGURE 6. GROUP 1: FUTURES OF THE SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY

SYSTEM - EMBRACING DIVERSITY ............................................................................................. 28FIGURE 7. GROUP 2: FUTURES WHEEL ...................................................................................... 30

FIGURE 8. GROUP 2: FUTURES OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS .............................. 31

FIGURE 9. GROUP 3: FUTURES WHEEL ...................................................................................... 34

FIGURE 10. GROUP 3: FUTURES OF EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS IN SAFETY,

COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY SYSTEMS ............................................................................. 35

FIGURE 11. GROUP 3: BACKCASTING - EMBRACING EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS IN

COMPENSATION BY 2035 .............................................................................................................. 36

FIGURE 12. GROUP 4: FUTURES WHEEL .................................................................................... 37

FIGURE 13. GROUP 4: FUTURES OF THE COMPENSATION SCHEME BUDGET FOR

PREVENTION ................................................................................................................................... 38


FIGURE 15. GROUP 5: FUTURES OF MEASUREMENT OF SUCCESS IN IMPROVING HEALTH

OF SOCIETY ..................................................................................................................................... 41


FIGURE 17. GROUP 6: FUTURES OF UNIVERSAL CARE FOR SUPPORT AND DISABILITY .. 43FIGURE 18. GROUP 7: FUTURES WHEEL .................................................................................... 46

FIGURE 19. GROUP 7: FUTURES OF EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON TRUST .. 47

FIGURE 20. GROUP 7: FUTURES OF EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON TRUST .. 47

FIGURE 21. GROUP 7: FUTURES OF EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS BASED ON TRUST: A

DAY IN THE LIFE .............................................................................................................................. 48


FIGURE 23. GROUP 8: FUTURES OF PARTNERSHIPS AND RELATIONSHIPS IN THE SYSTEM........................................................................................................................................................... 51

FIGURE 24. GROUP 8: BACKCASTING ......................................................................................... 52


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FIGURE 25. GLOBAL FUTURES: PROACTIVE VERSUS REACTIVE .......................................... 56

FIGURE 26. GLOBAL FUTURES: COOPERATIVE VERSUS INTERESTS-BASED ..................... 56

FIGURE 27. GLOBAL FUTURES AND BLOG THEMES................................................................. 57

FIGURE 28. BEST AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS ................................................................... 58

FIGURE 29. SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY FUTURES: PREVENTIVE VERSUS

REACTIVE ......................................................................................................................................... 63

FIGURE 30. SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY FUTURES: PARTNERSHIP VERSUS

GOVERNMENT-LED ........................................................................................................................ 65

FIGURE 31. PREVENTIVE PARTNERSHIPS AND BLOG THEMES ............................................. 66

FIGURE 32. INTERSECTION OF PREFERRED GLOBAL FUTURES AND SAFETY,

COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY FUTURES AT BLOG THEMES ............................................ 67

FIGURE 33: PATHWAY FROM UNSHARED KNOWLEDGE TO CONSTRUCTED KNOWLEDGE

EMBEDDED IN SCENARIO BUILDING ........................................................................................... 69


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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The ISCRR Futures Research Initiative has been designed to provide a rich information

context and opportunity for debate for its stakeholders about knowledge needs in safety,

compensation and recovery over the next 25 years.

Information on national and global trends and futures writing across 11 areas of interest

was generated by a Horizon Scanning Project. From over a million references, this project

selected 183 articles which considered trends and possible futures and factors which

shape them, including the underlying worldviews and myths.

The 183 articles became the catalyst for the first stage in the Stakeholder Dialogue project

- 11 online discussions (blogs) involving invited contributors. The outcomes of these

discussions were analyzed by ISCRR and generated themes of critical significance to the

future of safety, compensation and recovery. These themes seeded discussions at a

Futures Workshop among a wide range of stakeholders, and the production of both

optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for the future of health and safety.

The Futures Workshop then addressed itself to the critical paths required to achieve the

scenarios preferred by participants, in which prevention was the focus and partnership was

the operating model. This process of backcasting laid the groundwork for developing

research questions to address the knowledge needs of a preferred future. Voting by

Workshop participants on the research questions they had generated showed a clear

priority for research on improving intervention policies and programs, ahead of developingnew indicators of health, identifying future social issues, translating research more

effectively and increasing capacity of systems in research and program delivery.

This report draws together the outcomes of the Horizon Scanning Project and the

Stakeholder Dialogue Project. ISCRR analysis of the Horizon Scanning Project is

presented within the framework of those global prospects most commonly considered in

the articles environmental crisis and hi-tech new world and the underlying drivers

most commonly identified - global cooperation versus pursuit of sectoral interests and

proactive versus reactive approaches to the future. In the Stakeholder Dialogue Project

the future context was generally characterised by participants as one of economic flux;

thus the scenarios generated in the Futures Workshop have been analyzed by ISCRRwithin the framework of economic boom and bust, together with and the underlying

drivers identified in the Workshop preventive approach versus reactive/compensation

focus, and a partnerships model versus government leadership.

The ISCRR analysis points to the intersection between alternative global futures and the

forces shaping them, and Futures Workshop participants' preferred futures of safety,

compensation and recovery and the means of achieving them. It is this intersection

across the nine themes which emerged from the blog discussions and which seeded the

Stakeholder Dialogue project that the Futures Research Initiative has opened up as the

context in which knowledge needs and research questions can be considered. The reportconcludes that, in each of these nine areas, there will be opportunities for developments at

the global level and those in Australian safety, compensation and recovery to inform and

engage with each other.


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This report is a technical report, intended to be a repository of information about the

methodology and key results from the Initiative as a whole. It is not intended that it be

read by the audience for this work, but rather as a reference for future projects and those

interested in futures studies.

A number of other outputs have been produced for the audience for this work. These are:

ISCRR Futures Research Annotated Bibliography, October 2010

http://www.iscrr.com.au/files/news/Annotated_bibliography_21102010.pdf

Ellis N and Fawkes S. Drivers for futures in SCR: themes from blogs. Presentation at

ISCRR Futures Workshop, 27 October 2010, Parliament House, Melbourne

http://www.iscrr.com.au/futures_bibliog_pres.html

Past, present and future of WorkSafe Victoria and TAC, video presented at ISCRR

Futures Workshop, 27 October 2010

Horizon Scanning Project technical review, ISCRR Research Brief No: 1010-011-

R1B

Fawkes S, Palmer J, Inayatullah S, Burke R, Miller M, Worland P, Ellis N. The futures of

safety, compensation and recovery: A brief report on the Futures Research Initiative,

ISCRR, August 2011

Stylianou M. To strike a balance: A history of Victorias workers compensation scheme,

1985 2010. School of Philosophical, Historical and International Studies, Faculty of Arts,

Monash University, ISCRR Research Report No: 0611-018-R1B

2. INTRODUCTION AND AIMS

ISCRR aims to maximize the potential impact of its research on safety, compensation and

recovery scheme performance by:

optimizing engagement with stakeholders in setting the research agenda;

conducting research; and

translating research into policy and practice.

A priority for ISCRR at present is to establish an agenda for research which will meet the

short and longer term knowledge needs of the Transport Accident Commission (TAC) and

WorkSafe Victoria (WorkSafe).

ISCRR's approach to achieving the above objectives has been to embark on the

development of the organisation as an international centre of excellence for futures studies

in safety, compensation and recovery, exemplified in the 2010-2011 Futures Research

Initiative.

This report on the Futures Research Initiative explains the exploration of global long-term

futures through the Horizon Scanning Project and the engagement of ISCRR stakeholders

in a Stakeholder Dialogue Project. The aim of the Initiative was to identify possible health


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and safety futures within a wider context, and the knowledge needs for realizing a

preferred future.

3. METHODOLOGY

The methodology of the Futures Research Initiative was consistent with general

approaches to futures studies projects. These involve gathering inputs (data and

information); undertaking (using selected futures studies methods) the linked processes of

analysis, interpretation and prospection; accompanied by futures studies 'products' such

as reports, presentations, workshop and multimedia (Voros, 2003)1.

Hence the ISCRR Futures Research Initiative is an integration of three components:

A Horizon Scanning Project to identify national and global trends relevant to

the future of safety, compensation and recovery

A Stakeholder Dialogue Project to engage key stakeholders and opinion

leaders in reviewing these broad trends and identifying trend drivers

(causes, worldviews and underlying myths), then exploring possible futures

for the safety, compensation and recovery sector over the next 25 years

and the knowledge needs of a preferred future.

Analysis and reports of these data by ISCRR.

The chronological sequence of these three components is illustrated in the following

diagram:

FIGURE 1. METHODOLOGICAL SEQUENCE

However the three main components are much more closely integrated than this sequence

suggests. At the heart of the methodology is an analysis and report to stakeholders

following a series of online (blog) discussions about the Horizon Scanning Project. This

analysis is the critical link which connects the Horizon Scanning Project and the

Stakeholder Dialogue Project in two ways:

by seeding discussions in the Stakeholder Dialogue process (nine blog

themes presented to the Futures Workshop)

1Voros,J.(2003).Agenericforesightprocessframework.Foresight5(3),1021


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through synthesising, at the end of the Futures Research Initiative, the

outputs from both the Horizon Scanning Project and the Stakeholder

Dialogue Project (the analysis presented in this Report).

The path of knowledge flows through the Initiative is shown in the following diagram, andprovides the framework for the analysis in this Report.

FIGURE 2. PATH OF KNOWLEGE FLOWS IN THE FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE

The methodology for stakeholder engagement was designed by Professor Sohail

Inayatullah and Dr Robert Burke (in close association with ISCRR) using Inayatullah's

approach to strategic foresight2. This was based on the six pillars approach and 'linked

methodologies (see Appendix 1) to enable a systematic examination of drivers, trends andindicators, the articulation of alternative possible futures and the pathways to achieving

preferred futures.

One of the key ideas underpinning the methodology was that the techniques should allow

participants to delve beyond the 'official public description' of an issue (such as how a

compensation scheme works and how its effectiveness is assessed). Ideally, the

methodology would assist participants to recognise and describe structures and processes

in the system that directly shape performance and then go beyond this to questioning why

the system is structured and managed in this way. This last phase involves uncovering the

worldviews of those associated with creating and sustaining the system and at a deeperlevel, the notions embedded in society - 'metaphors and myths' - that support these

worldviews.

2Inayatullah,S.2008,'Sixpillars:futuresthinkingfortransforming',Foresight,vol.10,no.1,pp.421,


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4. METHODS

4.1 OVERVIEW

Methods were selected to provide and information-rich context for dialogue between

stakeholders responsible for decision making at a number of levels. The aim was to

explore uncertainties (and thus reveal potential areas for research) rather than try to

identify certainties. The methods included:

a horizon scanning data search and expert review to provide context

a series of participatory exercises with stakeholders and experts which

included online blog discussions, and a Futures Workshop with expert

presentations and discussion, mind mapping using the futures wheel, andscenario development and backcasting.

Each of these methods had a specific purpose related to the production of some form of

required knowledge on Ling's (2003) continuum (Figure 3) from 'soft' (intuitive/learning)

expertise to the hard analytical expertise.

FIGURE 3. CONTINUUM OF FUTURES STUDIES METHODS 3

ISCRR analysis and reports throughout the Initiative enabled the transitions between each

stage and the synthesis present in this Final Report.

An overview of the methods used in the Futures Research Initiative is represented in

Figure 4 below.

3Ling,T.(2003).ExAnteEvaluationandtheChangingPublicAuditFunction:TheScenarioPlanning

Approach.Evaluation,9(4),p447


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FIGURE 4. OVERVIEW OF FUTURES RESEARCH INITIATIVE ACTIVITIES

The methods used in each part of the Futures Research Initiative are briefly described

below.

4.2 METHODS: HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT

4.2.1 DATA MINING

The Horizon Scanning Project posed the following questions in a data search:

What are the global future trends in social, technological/scientific, economic,

environment, political, legal and ethical (STEEPLE) areas, and in health, work,transport, safety, compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer fields? (so-called

'PUSH' factors)

What is the current status of health, work, transport, safety, compensation,

recovery and knowledge transfer fields? ('WEIGHT' factors)

What are the preferred futures in health, work, transport, safety, compensation,

recovery and knowledge transfer fields? (PULL' factors)


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The criteria for selecting documents in the data search were deliberately broad, to ensure

all trends were captured which could impact on this sector. The broad criteria were as

follows: Topics related to STEEPLE, health, work, transport, safety, compensation,

recovery and knowledge transfer.

English language only

All countries

2006-current

Any data source (e.g. peer-reviewed articles, newspaper, websites, blogs)

Related to humans.

Ideas are said to follow a developmental path - from the seed, where few people are

talking about the idea and it may be discounted as radical, to where it becomes acceptedand implemented into practice. The aim of the sources strategies was to include sources

from these different stages in the development of ideas. These strategies were as follows.

Database search

Scopus is the largest abstract and citation database of research literature and quality web

sources covering nearly 18,000 titles from more than 5,000 publishers. This database

searches a number of different sources which are associated with different stages in idea

development.

Search terms used were related to (1) STEEPLE, health, work, transport, safety,compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer; and (2) PUSH, PULL, WEIGHT factors.

Expanding and refining the terms was an iterative process. Initially relevant terms were

listed. These were expanded by feedback from experts. A list of related/associated terms

and synonyms was then generated using WordNet. The user group to assess the

usefulness/appropriateness of each potential expanded term and selected a small number

of additional terms. Terms were combined in a number of ways. Initially all the STEEPLE

and other terms were combined with the Boolean operator OR. Then all the all PUSH,

PULL WEIGHT terms where combined with the Boolean operator OR. The collection of

STEEPLE etc terms were limited (Boolean operator AND) with the PUSH, PULL, WEIGHT

terms. This combination has limited by the years 2006, 2009 and 2010. This producednearly one million references. As it was only possible to download a maximum of 2,000

references, smaller searches where then conducted. Again the STEEPLE and other terms

were limited by the PUSH, PULL, WEIGHT terms.

Google

A Google search was also conducted using the same search terms. Topic models and

prototypical documents were also produced from the resulting corpus and submitted for

review by the panel of experts.

Journal searches


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Futures journals, and occupational, health and safety journals were searched manually for

articles related to the three questions being asked. Future journals were searched for

articles related to STEEPLE, health, work, transport, safety, compensation, recovery and

knowledge transfer; occupational, health and safety journals were searched for articles

related to PUSH, PULL and WEIGHT.

Futures websites

Futures websites were manually searched for articles related to STEEPLE, health, work,

transport, safety, compensation, recovery and knowledge transfer.

Serendipity

Documents which were identified by associates or by people working on the project were

also included if appropriate.

Similarity search

As a result of the above processes, a corpus of potential documents was assembled. The

SCOPUS and Google corpuses were then scanned using TFIDF techniques to identify

documents that were similar to the documents that had been selected to date. These were

then submitted to the reference panel and further potential documents identified.

Gap search

A review by the reference panel of the documents found through this process identified a

number of gap areas that were not covered. A number of more specific Scopus and

Google searches were conducted to locate these specific areas.

For some of these searches the above computer technique was used to select key

documents for submission to the reference panel. For a number of searches that returned

small numbers of results, manual review was used to select documents for review.

To obtain the final set of articles, more than 600 documents were found by the above

strategies and were presented to experts at ISCRR for review. Out of this number, nearly

200 were selected for potential inclusion on the short list. These were generally chosen

independently by two reviewers and any discrepancies were resolved by discussion. This

collection of documents was subjected to topic modelling using the MALLET software with

models for 8, 10 and 12 topics considered. Topic descriptors (words which appearedfrequently in the documents) were identified for each topic. A discussion was held

regarding which words and topics best suited the objectives of the exercise. Informed by

these inputs, 11 topics were finally identified:

1. The future of disability and rehabilitation service delivery models

2. The future of health

3. The future of work

4. The future of individual responsibility versus the welfare state

5. The future of occupational health and safety

6. The future of technology

7. The future of sustainability8. The future of corporate social responsibility

9. The future of avoiding unintended harm in compensation systems


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10. The future of at risk sub groups

11. The future of transport.

Documents in these topics were further short listed. These documents were chosen to

select the most relevant that is, relating to local issues, recent, well-written, interestingand thought-provoking. There was also the aim of balancing academic articles with more

controversial articles. Synopses of the articles were prepared. Licensing and copyright

issues were addressed, applying for permission where necessary. On the Think Tank blog,

weblinks were provided for full text articles, or abstracts of the articles. For those few

articles unavailable as full text or abstract, a summary of the article was written.

4.2.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY

An annotated bibliography of 183 articles selected from the Horizon Scan was prepared by

ISCRR for use in the online blog discussions and at the Futures Workshop.

4.3 METHODS: STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT

4.3.1 WARM UP WORKSHOPS

Three warm up workshops were held to introduce key individuals to the Initiatives aims

and futures studies-based methodology. These were held for TAC, WorkSafe and Monash

University in order to:

provide staff in partner organisations with the opportunity to gain an understanding

of futures thinking

inform staff about the program

recruit interested staff to participate in the stakeholder dialogue.

4.3.2 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)

Blogs focussing on the 11 topic areas identified through horizon scanning were set up on

the ISCRR Futures Research website. The blog sites were designed to facilitate

participation by contributors. 'Thought Leaders' engaged to introduce the blogs and to

participate in discussion as a way of ensuring the initiative in general and the online

discussion were selected for their ability to think broadly and inspire others.


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The Thought Leaders are listed in Table 1 below.

Online Discussion ThemeThought

LeaderPosition

Health Prof StephenLeeder

Director of the Menzies Centre for HealthPolicy, University of Sydney

Work Greg Tweedly CEO, WorkSafe

Occupational Health and Safety Dr Ben Amick Adjunct Scientist, Institute of Work and Health

Technology Prof Jim FalkDirector, Australian Centre for Science,Innovation and Society, University ofMelbourne

SustainabilityKathleenTownsend

Managing Director, Kathleen TownsendExecutive Solutions Pty Ltd

Transport David Anderson CEO, Ports Australia

At Risk Sub-groups Janet Dore CEO, Transport Accident Commission

Disability and RehabilitationServices

Anna BoothNon-Executive Chair, Slater & GordonLawyers - Specialist in workplace relations

Avoiding Unintended Harm inCompensation Systems

Prof Arno JAkkermans

Professor of Private Law, University ofAmsterdam

Corporate Social Responsibility Richard PriceSenior Principal, Natural Resources Group,Macquarie Capital Advisers Ltd

Individual Responsibility versusthe Welfare State

Prof EdwinaCornish

Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Research), MonashUniversity

TABLE 1. THOUGHT LEADERS FOR ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)

Potential contributors were identified and personally invited by email or telephone to

access the site and take part in the blog discussion. They were emailed details for

accessing the site and instructions on how to comment. 'Bloggers' names and comments

were both visible on the blogs.

The blogs were structured as follows:

Welcome message by the Thought Leader of the specific theme area

Background to the project

Summary of four stimulus articles identified through horizon scanning

Links to each of the articles Instructions on how to participate in the blog

Stimulus questions


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o What today is impossible to do in OH&S but if it could be done would

fundamentally change it for the better?

o Why is it impossible?

o What would make it possible?

o How can you make it possible? Video of Professor Niki Ellis, ISCRR, presenting an overview of the ISCRR Futures

Research Initiative

Video of Dr Robert Burke, Mt Eliza Business School, Monash University,

presenting an overview of futures thinking

Additional resources.

A screen-shot of one blog site (Occupational Health and Safety) is shown in Appendix 2.

The blogs remained open from September to October 2010. Two weeks prior to the

Futures Workshop, all online discussions were analyzed to identify key themes within each

blog. The approach used to analyze each blog comprised a sequence of steps:

Collate all blog postings

Read and clean data for spelling and clarity

Code data for sub-themes:

o What is impossible?

o Why is it impossible?

o What would make it possible?

o Issues/ Barriers

o Visions/Projections/ Trends

o Examples of policy, practice, programs

o Other themes emerging

Organize and present data.

The structure used for each blog summary is shown in Appendix 3. The summaries (see

Appendix 4) were provided in draft form to Thought Leaders and the ISCRR team in

advance of the Futures Workshop to inform their thinking and preparation.

An early analysis was also undertaken by the ISCRR team to identify themes across the

blogs, which may indicate key areas for research, change or development. This was

presented at the Futures Workshop and incorporated in the Powerpoint presentation by

Professor Ellis (see Appendix 4).


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4.3.3 FUTURES WORKSHOP: OVERVIEW

The workshop was designed to bring together key experts and stakeholders from TAC,

WorkSafe, Monash University and related organisations and fields to identify priority

research questions that would help to shape ISCRR's research agenda. Effort was madeto ensure the workshop was information rich and structured to stimulate interaction, open

discussion and debate among participants. The opening addresses to the workshop were

designed to establish the authority, relevance, significance and expectations of the

workshop.

The program for the Futures Workshop is shown in Appendix 5, and a list of participants at

Appendix 6.

The process elements of the workshop program, and a brief description of them, are as

follows.

4.3.4 FUTURES WORKSHOP: INTRODUCTION

At the opening section of the workshop, guests and participants were welcomed by ISCRR

Chief Executive Professor Niki Ellis, who provided background on the workshop and its

development, aims and structure.

The Hon Tim Holding, Minister for Water, Finance, Tourism and Major Events then

welcomed participants to the workshop on behalf of the State Government. He stressed

the record of achievement by TAC and WorkSafe in Victoria and the opportunity to build on

them, through research, to further improve safety, recovery and compensation

performance in the state. He invited participants to bring an open mindedness to the

workshop deliberations.

The Chair of the ISCRR board, Mr James MacKenzie, welcomed participants in a pre-

taped video presentation. (See Appendix 7 for the welcome letter from Mr MacKenzie to

the participants). He noted that TAC and WorkSafe had emerged as world leaders in the

way they help people recover who are injured at work or on the roads, and in their

approach to compensation. Both organisations have high public visibility through their

advertising campaigns on safety on the roads and at work. He stressed the importance of

ISCRR planning well for the future and understanding challenges such as those emerging

from the ageing of the population and workforce. He saw the input from stakeholdersrepresented at the workshop as very important in helping ISCRR understand the issues

and how these will shape safety, compensation and recovery systems.


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4.3.5 FUTURES WORKSHOP: EXPLANATION OF FUTURES THINKING

Professor Inayatullah provided an overview of the field of futures studies combined with

some key trends and ideas that are shaping our common futures. He outlined how futures

studies had enabled private and public organisations and sectors gain a long rangestrategic perspective on their social role and operations.

Professor Inayatullah then scoped the workshop process for participants: the use of

futures wheels to explore the key issues shaping safety, recovery and compensation

systems identified from the horizon scanning and online discussions; the formulation of

scenarios, using these ideas, to depict alternative futures; linking narratives underpinning

these different scenarios to organisational or sector strategy; backcasting from a selected

scenario to the present day; and identifying the research which needs to be undertaken in

order to realise the longer term scenario. Excerpts from Professor Inayatullahs

presentation are shown in Appendix 8 and Appendix 9.

4.3.6 FUTURES WORKSHOP: VIDEO

Timing the future is a pillar in Inayatullahs methodology. By looking back participants can

gain a sense of the pace and scope of change which can assist to push participants into

the future. To assist with this ISCRR commissioned a video, Past, present and future of

WorkSafe Victoria and TAC. Subsequently the interviews undertaken for the video

became a source of information for a written history of WorkSafe Victoria, also undertaken

by ISCRR.

4.3.7 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FISHBOWL

The 'fishbowl' was a facilitated panel comprising the 11 blog Thought Leaders or their

representatives of each online discussion theme. The lead workshop facilitator

interviewed each Thought Leader/ representative in turn, noting and remarking on key

ideas and themes.

Issues discussed included the changing makeup of the workforce and implications of this

for operating transport and health care systems and the way work is organized, located

and managed. Another issue discussed was equity and the role of workplaces as well as

transport and compensation systems to progress health and social equity objectives for

social and economic reasons.


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4.3.8 FUTURES WORKSHOP: REPORT ON ONLINE BLOG DISCUSSIONS

Feedback prepared by ISCRR on the online discussions was included in the workshop to

provide an overview to participants of the blog postings. A synopsis of the online

discussions was presented by Professor Ellis (see Appendix 4). She noted statistics onparticipation in the blogs and identified nine key cross-blog themes that emerged from the

early analysis of the blogs:

1. Universal care and support for disability

2. Greater focus on non-financial needs, especially emotional, to reduce

unintended harm of compensation schemes

3. Increased engagement with workers through the employment relationship

and with clients through consumer empowerment in care systems

4. Broader ways of measuring success in improving health of society, needs an

evidence base5. New ways of assessing and managing risks dealing with emerging risks

6. New relationships (partnerships and collaborations): governments, NGOs,

business, unions, workers, communities, including globally

7. Technological change paced by social change: reclaiming humanity

8. Diversity as the norm equity as the challenge

9. System integration.

4.3.9 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEEL EXERCISE, SCENARIO

DEVELOPMENT AND BACKCASTING

Pre-designated groups were seated at tables to undertake a sequence of futuresexercises. They were asked to select a topic from a list (two groups could not do the same

topic). The topics were derived from the nine blog themes and represented important

strategic challenges for the compensation system.

Instructions on using the three futures methods to be used by the groups - futures wheel

exercise, scenario development, and backcasting - were set out in a guide prepared by

futurist and workshop facilitator Professor Sohail Inayatullah (Scenario and Research

Implications) and supplied for use in the workshop.

Futures Wheel

In the first futures studies exercise, groups created a futures wheel. A futures wheelis an

exercise in mind-mapping the impacts of an issue. An issue is placed at the centre of the

wheel and produces a radial pattern of primary/secondary/tertiary impacts. It provides a

structured way of exploring futures related to a topic or theme, and of organizing thinking

and questioning.

An issue, trend or event was selected by each group, which then responded to the

question - what are the impacts of this issue/trend/event? The group then responded to the

question - what are the secondary impacts of these impacts? Further questions identified

the tertiary and more far reaching impacts of impacts. (See Appendix 10 for more detail

and diagrams on this process).


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Scenario development

The groups then embarked on a scenario development exercise, drawing on the ideas

generated in the futures wheel exercise.

Scenarios are internally consistent portrayals of future states, integrate trends across arange of fields and have multiple purposes including understanding the views of different

stakeholders and perspectives; finding new areas of growth, products, processes, people,

possibilities; and helping clarify often hidden assumptions about the future (see Appendix

8). Scenario development exercises take a range of forms and can be adapted for

particular uses and settings. Sophisticated scenario development initiatives have become

well established in the private sector as part of advanced, longer term strategy

development and are apparently increasingly being adopted for use in the public sector as

the need increases to understand interactions between trends 4.

Three different scenario methods were described in the Futures Workshop workbook:double variable method, multivariable scenario technique and organisation scenario

technique (see Appendix 9). Groups were invited to choose whichever technique

appealed to them and made sense for their topic, and then to apply it to develop four

different future scenarios.

Groups were then asked to deepen their insights into one of the scenarios by discussing

and responding to the following four questions:

What is the core strategy in this scenario?

What are the narratives, stories, metaphors, that can help realise this

scenario?

What are the narratives, stories and metaphors that can prevent the

realisation of this scenario?

In what ways can you re-script the narrative so the scenario has a greater

possibility of being realised or avoided?

Backcasting

Backcasting (sometimes portrayed as the opposite of forecasting) involves selecting a

scenario (a desired future state) then working back in time to identify the necessarystages, events or innovations leading from the present day to the desired future. In a

sense, it tells the story of the factors that brought about one particular, preferred, future

state. It reveals areas where research and development would be needed in order for

particular innovations or decisions to come to fruition.

The workshop facilitators undertook a backcasting exercise in plenary to show how it wasdone. The results of this were printed out from the electronic whiteboard and given to eachgroup for reference.

4Fawkes,S(2009).Howandwhyfuturesstudiesareusedinhealthpolicymaking.UnpublishedPhDthesis.

LaTrobeUniversity.


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Groups were then invited to apply this method to their choice of one of the scenarios.

Questions they were asked to use to develop their backcasting process were:

What events and trends transpired to make the scenario a reality? List at

least three.

What are some strategic pathways?

The groups were encouraged to develop a timeline representing their backcasting work

and reflect on its implications for research.

4.3.10 FUTURES WORKSHOP: PRIORITY RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Groups were then asked to scope the research questions that were evident from or

suggested through the scenario work and backcasting, and write these up on large sheets

of paper. These sheets were then placed at the front of the room and all participants were

asked to move to the front and nominate, by placing sticky dots, the five questions that in

their view were priority questions to address through research. Questions with the most

dots next to them were understood to be those that participants, as a whole group,

regarded as being most important to capture in the ISCRR research agenda.

At the conclusion of the workshop, ISCRR staff took photographs of the sheets of paper on

which the small groups documented their work during the day, for the purposes of

analysing the workshop and its outcomes.


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4.4 METHODS: ISCRR ANALYSIS AND REPORTS

ISCRR analyses, presentations and reports enabled transitions between the variousstages of the Futures Research Initiative, culminating in this Report which synthesizes the

outputs of the Initiative. ISCRRs activities included:

Review and cataloguing of Horizon Scan data into 11 topic areas by an

expert panel

Preparation and publication of the Annotated Bibliography of selected

Horizon Scan articles

The analysis of blog postings and development of nine emerging themes

which was presented to the Futures Workshop

The synthesis of outputs from both the Stakeholder Dialogue Project and

the Horizon Scanning Project which is presented in this Report

A summary of feedback received on the Futures Research Initiative,

presented later in this Report

Preparation of technical and other reports on the Futures Research Initiative

listed at the end of this Report

This Report builds on the outputs of the Horizon Scanning Project and the Stakeholder

Dialogue Project. It highlights the dominant themes in writings on global/national futuresand in the safety, compensation and recovery futures canvassed by stakeholders, then

draws attention to important connections between them.

5. RESULTS OF HORIZON SCANNING PROJECT

5.1 DATA MINING

As noted above, the ISCRR panel shortlisted 183 articles across 11 areas of interest:

1. The future of disability and rehabilitation service delivery models

2. The future of health

3. The future of work

4. The future of individual responsibility versus the welfare state

5. The future of occupational health and safety

6. The future of technology

7. The future of sustainability

8. The future of corporate social responsibility

9. The future of avoiding unintended harm in compensation systems

10. The future of at risk sub groups


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11. The future of transport.

The innovative data text mining methodology used in the Horizon Scanning Project has

been written up in a separate report Horizon Scanning Project technical review, ISCRR

Research Brief No: 1010-011-R1B.

5.2 ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY

The annotated bibliography was written so that the reader could understand not only the

focus of the article but also the character (eg research report) or tone (eg speculative) of

the article. It was posted on the 11 blog sites, and provided to participants in the Futures

Workshop.

6.0 RESULTS OF STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE PROJECT

6.1 ONLINE DISCUSSIONS (BLOGS)

Participation in the blogs is tabulated in Appendix 11. A target of blogs of 100 postings

was set at the start of the project, and a total of 105 postings resulted from the contribution

of 73 individuals (excluding Thought Leaders). Three blogs had twelve postings -

Occupational Health and Safety, Disability and Rehabilitation, and Health and Health Care.

Two blogs had eleven postings - Avoiding Unintended Harm in Compensation Systems

and Work. The blogs with the lowest number of postings were 'at risk' sub-groups (7

postings) and Individual responsibility vs. the Welfare State (6). Participants' postings

provided a range of insights reflecting their professional expertise and experience as well

as personal values. They proposed trends that operate to push circumstances and

systems forward; visions that work to pull circumstances and systems towards futures;

and the past that that serves to create a weight that makes circumstances and systems

resistant to change.

Trendsidentified by bloggers were diverse in scope, indicating the complex context of

safety, compensation and recovery. Demographic trends noted included increasing

population size, ageing of the population and diversification of the working and work

capable - population. Bloggers noted broad social trends such as towards the adoption of

active transport which enables exercise, mobility and social connectedness; participation

by and increasing power of groups previously excluded from the workforce including

women, people with disabilities and migrants. Numerous trends that will shape workfutures were either assumed or identified. As the Victorian workforce contracts and

stagnates because of reducing availability of labour (in turn related to the ageing of the

population), workplaces will need to respond to the requirements and characteristics of the

population groups who will comprise the workforce. These will include people who have

been underrepresented in the past such as women and from more diverse backgrounds.

The prevention of systemic discrimination (discrimination that is serious and impacts on a

whole group of people in a similar way) and promotion of equal opportunity will become

prominent as a consequence of this shift in workforce makeup. Motivation of this workforce

will be key as the scarcity of labour increases. A slowing down of new workforce entrants

will have an impact on areas including the economy, industry, the typical career path andperhaps the standards of education that many will aspire to achieve before entering the

workforce and during their career.


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Technology trends are also reshaping work, including where and what work can be

conducted, introducing new challenges for occupational health and safety, performance

management and work/life balance for individuals and families. Broad technological trends

identified by bloggers included the development of innovations that serve the interests of

energy efficiency and sustainability objectives such as alternative vehicle and fueltechnologies; advances that enable more efficient ways of doing things, such as

computerization of technical processes, but which are at the same time serving the

interests of a culture of instant gratification. Trends in specific sectors are also reshaping

work, injury patterns, potential for prevention and demands on the compensation system.

Where trends in health care such as the availability of prevention technologies meet

increasing consumer demand for personalized care, demand will increase for injury and

disease prevention based on biological, social and psychological factors.

The visions and aspirations portrayed by bloggers gave voice to attributes they want to

see develop in the safety, compensation and recovery fields as well as society and

sectors. Some of the simplest visions had enormous implications for leadership and

harnessing social and technological innovation. For example, every journey is a safe one;

'a society that marshals the capability, effort and funding (its adequacy and duration) more

efficiently, effectively and sustainably around prevention of the problem', in order to reduce

the number of citizens we add to the long term cohort (of people who are disabled or

unemployed for instance) each year'; and 'As a 21st century society, we aspire to a

situation where no-one should expect that their loved ones will be injured, maimed,

diseased or worse as a consequence of their work. And, should they be, that they will have

an assured entitlement to expert treatment and rehabilitation - and fair and just

compensation.'

Some visions were coherent representations of the ways in which workplaces should

function for example: [w]orkplaces will promote participation by all (at-risk ) groups in the

community including mothers, people with a disability, older workers, CALD workers by

having equal opportunity for people to demonstrate their capacity and ability; and providing

a work environment in which people feel confident to speak up where there are issues or

problems and make a complaint without being frightened of victimization or

consequences. Some visions of health were expansive but in line with recent research

and advocacy efforts: 'All new health investments are directed to wellness approaches

based on an understanding of what the major determinants of health or wellness are (such

as employment, good housing, clean air and water).' Others focused on the role ofindividuals in preventing injury and disease, such as 'patients take full responsibility for

their health care needs to prevent illness & disease to prevent hospital admissions, and to

follow recommended rehabilitation/recovery guidelines to prevent re-admissions'.

The counterpoint to visions was barriersto realizing them. Some barriers are enduring

and obstinate factors that inhibit change in systems and the community. A fundamental

issue is that the status quo across a variety of areas serves the interests of some parties

and not others and change can be limited by vested interests and the scale of existing

investments in how particular systems work. Commenting on the transport sector, for

example, bloggers expressed visions related to how transport needs are addressed (eg a

top down multimodal strategic approach) and what future transport systems would look like(eg integrated). The barriers to these visions lie in the entrenched mode silos, that is,

where a car is a solution to a local problem of getting to work or shopping; and an airline is


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a solution to the local, national or international problem of travelling intrastate, interstate or

internationally.

Barriers to change in the occupational health and safety field related to issues including:

perceptions of what OHS is, its relative importance in an organisation and associatedissues such as the level of investment in OHS and where control of OHS sits; the balance

between strong OHS programs and being competitive in an international context; the pace

of change and the limits to proactive actions; lack of agreement about whose role it is to

lead macro level change; and gaps in evidence needed for policy and practice and

difficulty getting investments in research. Barriers to realizing preferred health and health

care futures included the orientation of the values and investments of the health care

system, lack of population health planning involving key non-health sectors, obstacles to

creating incentives for 'healthy choices to be the easy choices' and resistance by or

inability for people to assume more responsibility for health-related decisions. Health and

health care futures are shaped by supply side (health system) factors and demand side

(individuals and populations) factors. On the supply side, the funding models currently

used for the health system are based on illness management. Investment returns in the

health system come from ill health not good health.

6.2 FUTURES WORKSHOP: FUTURES WHEELS AND SCENARIOS

Futures Workshop groups selected from a range of propositions about the future which

were based on the nine themes emerging from the blog discussions, as follows:

Group 1: Diversity is embraced by the scheme (people are more valuable)

Group 2: New ways of assessing and managing risks, especially emergingrisks eg nanotechnology and genomics

Group 3: Greater focus on emotional and mental needs

Group 4: 30% of scheme budget is prevention

Group 5: Broader ways of measuring scheme success in improving the health

of society

Group 6: Universal care and support for disability

Group 7: Employment based on trust

Group 8. New partnerships and relationships in the system.

Each group developed futures wheels and, using the ideas generated, formulated

scenarios. Depictions of futures wheels and scenarios from all groups were gleaned from

notes taken at the workshop by each group. The futures wheels and scenarios are

presented in the following sections. The results of backcasting are also included. (Only two

groups completed backcasting).


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6.2.1 GROUP 1: DIVERSITY IS EMBRACED, PEOPLE ARE MORE

VALUABLE

Futures Wheel

The futures wheel created by Group 1, shown in tabular form in Figure 5, scoped several

implications for compensation systems from embracing diversity, then the implications of

these factors. Practical implications were that employer attitudes to their workforce

composition had to change and because of increasing cultural diversity, services for

workers would need to be tailored through providing interpreters for example. At a macro

level, the implications of embracing diversity were significant and included increased costs

initially but reduced societal costs over time. The need to tap into communities to increase

engagement by community members had wider social implications such as the potential to

form partnerships and to create networks and communities where none existed before or

strengthening these networks and communities.Implications if diversity is embraced by the scheme and people are more valuable

Primary Secondary Tertiary

Diverse workforce skills Changing employer attitudes

Design of infrastructureCalculation of costs - long term

focus

Early prevention measures

Tailored services Access to interpreters

Initial cost factors Reduced societal costs

Success measures Societal impact measures

Tapping into communities toincrease engagement

Creating networks/ communities

Partnerships

Flexible work arrangements

FIGURE 5. GROUP 1: FUTURES WHEEL


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Scenarios

Group 1 applied the Multiple Variable scenario to then explore futures associated with the

challenge of the safety, compensation and recovery scheme (or system) embracing

diversity. Participants identified four key drivers as differentiating one future scenario fromanother:

demography cost (financial and economic) technology social.

The four scenarios generated by Group 1 are presented in Figure 6.

2035

DIVERSITY

Driver: Demography

Headline Workplaces embrace diversity

Systemic causes/ characteristics -

Workforce shortage

Medical technology

Legislation change

High net migration

Worldview

No different

Metaphor

No different

Driver: Financial and economic

Headline Centrelink goes broke


Mental health issues

Increase in refugees

Productivity decrease

Structural shift in social support systems

More self reliant

Worldview

Self reliance

Metaphor

Self reliance

Driver: TechnologyHeadline First b ionic person in AustraliaSystemic causes/ characteristics -Reduction in health costsImproved research costs and investmentNanotechnology implantsStem cellRemote workingTelemedicineWorldview My battery never expires

Metaphor Techno worker

Driver: SocialHeadline Victoria tops happiness scaleSystemic causes/ characteristics -Lower working hours legislatedBalanced lifestyleWork hubs

Worldview Im connected to my community

Metaphor Happy community

FIGURE 6. GROUP 1: FUTURES OF THE SAFETY, COMPENSATION ANDRECOVERY SYSTEM -

EMBRACING DIVERSITY


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6.2.2 GROUP 2: NEW WAYS OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS

Overview

Group 2 noted two major issues as having a significant influence on how emerging risks

such as those associated with nanotechnology and genomics will be assessed and

managed in future. Firstly, technology will play a significant role in better assessing risk.

Secondly, the extent to which individuals will assume more personal responsibility for

safety will play a role in how risks are assessed and managed. To be able to assume more

responsibility however, individuals will require accurate perceptions of risk which is

contingent on quality information being conveyed to them in ways they can understand and

use. Group 2 used the analogy of driving safety to characterize what they meant by new

ways that risk could be assessed and managed. While the speedometer on a vehicle

instrument panel indicates what speed a driver is doing and therefore communicates a

measure of risk, information about other factors impacting on safety such as blood alcohol

level, fatigue, lighting, road conditions and the mood of driver, are important if an individualis to assess their actual level of risk.

New ways of assessing and managing risks contributing to safety will require sharing

information about individuals risk profiles with government and relevant agencies,

although this has significant implications for privacy. As in many areas of public health,

such an assessment would need to balance absolute personal freedom (to injure oneself,

but then also others) against curtailed personal freedoms in the public interest.

With the blurring of boundaries between home and work and the separation of the

information systems of several agencies working on safety and reducing risks, Group 2

believed there is an argument for developing a combined system addressing universalhealth and safety not just workplace or vehicle safety.

Group 2 felt that there was a need for more research on how to stop things going wrong.

For example, experiments to assess why an incident nearly happened, what was going on

at the time, what piece or pieces of information was/ were not available/ understood/

applied that led to a near miss.

Futures Wheel

The futures wheel created by Group 2 is shown in tabular form in Figure 7. A key

implication of the issue of new ways of assessing and managing risks was that theseactivities have ethical dimensions covering various aspects of data management (data

security, what data is collected and how it is used and lack of data as a basis for decision

making) and these need to be addressed in measuring the outcomes of the system.

Another implication was that new risks are inherent in innovations and a preventive

approach (perhaps along the lines of the prevention principle in public health) should be

applied as innovations are developed and adopted.


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Implications of new ways of assessing and managing risks especially emergingrisks

Primary impact Secondary impact Tertiary impact

Assess environmentalimpact

- criteria for approval

International implications World market

Utilizing technology toassess

Pick up risks earlier

Ethical implications Data security

What we collect and how we use data

Lack of data

Measurement ofoutcomes

Corporate responsibility

Technology Self health assessment

Benefits for societyGovernment research body for newproducts

Need to assess from this perspective

Impact of technology and products egIPad, Coca Cola

New risks

Prevention

Broader support - allaccidents

Fragmentation of safetyknowledge

Rethink structures of today - VicPol,TAC, MFB, CFA

Broader definition of risk egwellness

Focus on prevention

Skills

Resources

Holistic view

Social implications

New issues Ageing population

Technology - IPods, hearing

Mental health impact Resilience



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Scenarios

Group 2 applied the Double Variable technique to explore futures associated with new

ways to assess and manage risks (especially those that are emerging). Participants

identified two key variables as shaping the four futures scenarios: prevention/compensation and universal coverage/Work and road injury coverage. Group 2 noted that

to broaden the scope of compensation, there needed to be a shift to prevention and to

increased individual responsibility. A number of tensions around the issue of assessing

and managing risks (especially emerging risks) were identified by Group 2:

extent of coverage need for / role of compensation system individual responsibility versus state responsibility safety versus broad notion of holistic health prevention versus compensation.


Universal focus (health and safety)

Prevention

Headline - UtopiaSystemic causes/ characteristics -We know what health is (populationlevel)Individuals are responsible and capableand knowledgeableTechnology enabledUnhealthy behaviour incentives forhealthy behaviourOne agency - nationalSupport based on need if desiredMetaphor - Universal (health andsafety)

Headline - Busting the BankSystemic causes/ characteristics -No individual accountabilityAll healthcare needs are metHigh taxationIncome security

Metaphor - Universal (health and safety)

Compensation

Headline - Half way houseSystemic causes/ characteristics -EducationTargeted but effective preventiontherefore decreased incidence of roadand traffic accidentsBusinesses thrivesLawyers go bankrupt

Fault-based systemMetaphor - Prevention

Headline - Lawyers dreamSystemic causes/ characteristics -Government led - no individualaccountabilityCause of injury-based, not needs basedPeople with injuries who dont haveaccess because not work or road injuryInjury-based therefore health problems

neglectedPrevention under-developedMetaphor - Living in the past

Work and road injury focus

FIGURE 8. GROUP 2: FUTURES OF ASSESSING AND MANAGING RISKS

Group 2 deepened their exploration of the scenario Utopia by responding to the questions

posed in the workbook. The key points made were as follows.

Group 2s core strategy was about broadening coverage to all health and safety matters

(not just those associated with roads and work). The realisation of the strategy would

involve:


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Defining universal health and safety in terms of proper measures, standards

and KPIs

A shift in the system focus to prevention

Emphasizing physical, social and behavioral factors.

Increasing individual accountability and support using knowledge and

technology from government, business, etc (individual empowerment)

Developing universal access to knowledge we model

Developing an integrated system (national)

Utilizing social innovation as a driver of technological development for

prevention

Encouraging innovation to solve the problems we dont yet have.

Barriers to the realisation of the strategy were identified as the removal of individual

freedom/ choice; and the predilection of humans to take risks.

Group 2 believed they learned that to broaden coverage requires a shift to prevention with

greater emphasis on physical, social and behavioral factors.

6.2.3 GROUP 3: GREATER FOCUS ON EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDS

Overview

Group 3 had a vision of a greater focus on emotional and mental wellbeing. The metaphor

of a jazz band playing harmoniously together was used as a way of emphasizing that

while individuals are responsible for their own actions, we as a community have to play in

harmony with each other. Embodied in the metaphor are values, for example, some

instruments are equally important and all are valued; some musicians may have solos, but

these are all part of the song; and working well together creates a beautiful whole

harmony and listening to rest of band is vital.

The group felt that in the past, communities relied on institutions such as churches to

reinforce community values, of the importance of sharing responsibility. As churches have

lost their influence, a new approach is needed to take up this role and other institutions

have sought to promote shared values. This is a role that is bigger than TAC, Worksafe

and ISCRR's current agenda.

The significant trend which has a major influence on how they could realize the vision, was

the effective use of social marketing/mass communication campaigns which had

demonstrated positive outcomes Life be in it, the Gun Buy Back initiative, the TAC road

safety campaigns and the Worksafe campaigns. Social marketing was thought to help

convey ideas and encourage shared values in the community in the way that the churches

or other major social institutions once did. The group discussed a QUIT type campaign

aimed at achieving these goals. Media advertising to achieve such changes in behaviourand attitudes to life and responsibility for others was thought to be a long term, expensive

project just as TAC and Worksafe programs were in their initial years. There appears to


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have been a reduction in the budget for these programs and that this could explain the

increase in accidents this year.

The backcasting process showed that the greatest challenge is the political will to invest in

this approach - $30 million a year would be required which is huge by Victorian mediacampaign standards but not large when cost savings are considered. The group thought

that the election of the new state government, and its stated policy on advertising, meant

that this investment will be impossible to achieve without some other way of giving

TAC/Worksafe/ ISCRR other income.

Lack of political will/timing was noted as a significant barrier to addressing this issue. The

Port Arthur atrocity provided a context for the Liberal government to stand up to traditional

conservative government support base (farmers/gun lobby) to introduce both the Gun

Buyback scheme and tighter legislation governing gun ownership.


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Futures Wheel

The futures wheel created by Group 3 is shown in tabular form in Figure 9. The

implications of bringing a greater focus to emotional and mental needs at the third tier level

were identified as: whether ISCRR is the right body to develop greater communityawareness of these issues or whether another agency is better placed; promoting social

inclusiveness, the interconnectedness of people and communities, is at the heart of

bringing a greater focus to emotional and mental needs; and a stronger recognition of

these areas of health and wellbeing has implications for workplaces in terms of expanding

existing programs and services to cover these areas as well a physical health.

Implications of bringing a greater focus to emotional and mental needs


Greater community

awareness of i ssues

What is the role of WorkSafe/ TAC

in this?

Is there another agency?

Individual and communityresponsibility, social thinking tocome to the fore

Social inclus iveness,interconnectedness ofpeople and communities

Huge shift to preventionChanges to how we can engage/support people through systemsWhat is the responsibility ofemployers to understand wellbeingneeds/ emotional needs of workers

Prevention message spreadthroughout community inother areasNew including non-medical

workfo rce to tackle issueswith family/ community focus

Research project to understand

workforce

Preventive issues focus onunemployment

Stop unemployment after 18months and people feelingworthless

Greater acceptance andsupport

More open to what people need -young people/ emotional needsIncrease in number identifying ashaving mental health issues

Implications forworkplace to treatmental health issues

More effectivecommunication

What is media/ communicationmode for next generations

Greater investment in mentalhealth

Implications for funding models,government


Scenarios

Group 3 applied the Organisation Scenario technique to develop futures related to with

bringing about a greater focus on emotional and mental needs in the area of safety,

compensation and recovery. Participants identified factors that differentiated four different

scenarios as worst, best, business as usual and outliers. The four scenarios generated

by Group 3 are presented in Figure 10.


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2035

Worst caseHeadline - Youre on your own > No-onecares

Systemic causes/ characteristics -Reactive Demand >Supply from systemNot viableUnfunded schemeInformation/ knowledge poorCompensation dependentImpacting everythingNo health or social responseIneffective/ repeat customers

Best caseHeadline - Positive attitude to lifeSystemic causes/ characteristics -

Early intervention/ PreventionPeople valueFully integrated systemTrustInformation richIndividual awareness of benefits to a safer lifeCommunity responsibilityNo stigma

Business as UsualHeadline - WorkSafe and TAC will look aftermeSystemic causes/ characteristics -

Medical focusFollow the trendsTodays trendsTreatment vs. Prevention

OutliersHeadline - Im OK, Everyone is OKSystemic causes/ characteristics -Instant cure

Happiness IndexDetection screeningGet treatment you needAbundant amount of suppliers

FIGURE 10. GROUP 3: FUTURES OF EMOTIONAL AND MENTAL NEEDSIN SAFETY, COMPENSATION AND RECOVERY SYSTEMS

The best case scenario Positive attitude to life was examined by Group 3 in more

detail. Group 3 also did a backcasting exercise to define what actions or innovations would

be needed in order for the compensation system to embrace emotional and mental needs.

The results are presented in Figure 11.


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2035

Positiveattitude tolife

Earlyintervention

Prevention

All valued

Understand issues

Awareness

Communication to improvepositiveattitudes to life

Startbenchmarking (Vicpopn.)

Evidenceto supporttargetedcampaign

Groupresearch tomeasureattitudes

Wellnesscentres

2

011

2

012

2

013

2

015

2

020

2

025

2

030

2

035

FIGURE 11. GROUP 3: BACKCASTING - EMBRACING EMOTIONAL AND MENTALNEEDS IN COMPENSATION BY 2035

Through this exercise, the group determined that realizing the vision would require a ten

year effort to: establish a foundation of understanding issues and measuring attitudes,

benchmark to establish baseline information about emotional mental needs, create

infrastructure such as wellness services/ centres; and to generate evidence to support a

targeted campaign.

6.2.4 GROUP 4: 30% OF SCHEME BUDGET IS PREVENTION

Overview

Group 4 focused on scenarios associated with extra money being spent on the prevention

of accidents that cause personal injuries (additional 30%). The group discussed how

additional funds might be spent and the possible roles of the regulator in relation to this

objective. The group observed that some of the most successful TAC and WorkSafe

innovations had come from "leaps of faith" lead by a strong regulator in an environment of

"crisis". The observation was also made that in all likelihood, a "portfolio" approach would

be preferred with some investment across a variety of approaches to prevention.


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Futures Wheel

The futures wheel created by Group 4 is shown in tabular form in Figure 12. A number of

implications of the central proposition were traced. Industry and its expertise would have to

broaden if one third of the schemes budget is dedicated to prevention and mental healthand stress would need to be included as a stream of focus for schemes. The role of

regulators would shift to one of enabling prevention. Workers, in assuming more market

power, would be in a position to demand information from employers or prospective

employers about their compensation history.

Implications if 30% of scheme budget is prevention


New ways for prevention Broaden industry and expertise

Mental health/ stress?

Society prevents

More collaboration betweenemployees and employers

Role of indiv iduals?

Role of government?

Role of the regulator To enable?

Incentive - employer focus

New way of measuringsuccess?? Not jus t $$

Workers have market power What's your compensation history?

What's your safety history?

Political backlash at where $are spent

How to prove results?

Employers laying off staff

Increased premium initiallythen reduced

Society's attitude changes School contributes education Whole of safety focus

Most dominant message

Less injured and dead

More advice to employee

Increase enforcement - everyworkplace



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Scenarios

Group 4 applied the Double Variable technique to explore futures associated with bringing

the percentage of schemes budgets for prevention to 30%. Participants identified two key

variables as shaping the four futures scenarios: community-society collaboration vs.independent authority-strong regulation control, and public vs. science.


2035

Community/ Society

Collaboration

Public

Headline - Speculative


Car companies and workplaces sponsor

community for safe workMany ideas from many community and

industry

Small seeds lead to big change/ deep in

community

- strong ownership/ social

movement

- differential outcomes

- success and failures

- political risk and controversy

- farmers markets

Headline - Collective IQ


Grants/ community and industry

Self insurance modelGovernment and industry collaboration/

technology

Incentives/ fines to innovate

Slow and bureaucratic

Science

Headline - Leaps of faithSystemic causes/ characteristics -

Public

- ego/ guts

Confident regulator

Strategic risk taking and venture capital

model

Big scale changes

Social judgment

Big brother / GPS 100% monitored

vehicle

Big Brother hoons drive bicycle

Headline - Tried and trueSystemic causes/ characteristics -

Technology innovation

Evidence, science, statistics

Super safety

Risk averse decisions

Data based

Small gains/ little resistance

Lack of innovation

No dramas/ traditional

Independent authority/ regulation

Control

FIGURE 13. GROUP 4: FUTURES OF THE COMPENSATION SCHEME BUDGET FORPREVENTION


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6.2.5 GROUP 5: BROADER WAYS OF MEASURING SUCCESS IN

IMPROVING HEALTH OF SOCIETY

Overview

The group scoped the business as usual situation, where activities are driven by what is

currently measured, then imagined a broader system that uses a variety of techniques

(qualitative & quantitative) to measure clients' recovery, the contribution of the

compensation scheme to a healthy society and broader aspects of scheme performance.

The group generated the analogy between managing the compensation system and flying

an aeroplane to explore what would need to be measured and by whom. In this analogy,

'business as usual' would be the single pilot operating the plane using a narrow range of

instruments on the control panel. The new system would have co- or multiple pilots (eg

representing the compensation system, consumers, other key stakeholders) and multiple

instruments on the control panel (reflecting a desire to manage the system in response to

a broader range of inputs). The broader range of instruments would provide informationthat shows the dynamic relationship between population health, system performance and

client/ community satisfaction. This would remove dependency on one type of data and

result in a more community-driven system measuring scheme success in improving the

health of society. While the group had limited time to discuss specific measures of a

healthy society, the point was made that such measures have the properties listed in the

best case scenario.

Futures wheel

The futures wheel created by Group 5 is shown in tabular form in Figure 14. A number of

implications of broadening the measures of the schemes success were noted.Establishing the scope and duration of measures was identified as an important basis, with

approaches like life course and holistic health offering conceptual frameworks for

designing a measurement system. Integrating worker and transport compensation

schemes was identified as an implication of wanting to measure the longer term impact of

schemes on wellbeing. An overall implication is that scope of a schemes mandate would

need to be reassessed.


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Implications o f broadening ways to measure scheme success in improv ing thehealth of society


Measurement over extendedduration

Measure sustainability of impact ofscheme

Integrate schemes(work, transport etc)

Measure health beyond thescheme return to work, lifespanapproach

Measurement across broaderrange of factorsWe do what we measureMandate of schemeschallenged

Narrower?

Define what a healthy societyis

What is the story

- physical indicators- mental indicators- happiness- satisfaction- disability management ofintegration- attitudes to vulnerable groups(inclusiveness)

Virtual schemeLess segregation betweenschemes



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Scenarios

Group 5 applied the Organisation Scenario technique to develop futures related to

measurement of the success in safety, compensation and recovery schemes in improving

the health of society. The four scenarios generated by Group 5 are presented in Figure 15.2035

Business as Usual

Headline - Data driven


Narrower focus

Focus on those who are injured

Reactive

Inward focused

Lagged indicators

Keep doing the same thingInnovation within current boundaries

Change only occurs from reaction

World view doesnt change

Outlier

Headline - Self driven

Systemic ca