016 | issue number 2 economy ph newsletter june 2016.pdf · 016 | issue number 2 th obustly...
TRANSCRIPT
ECONOMYPHJune 2016 | Issue Number 2
A S N A P S H O T O F T H E
P H I L I P P I N E S rsquo E C O N O M I C P A T H
Aquino legacy Robustly growing resilient Philippine economy
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surge
10-pt agenda of new admin bared
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swing
Right-of-way law Landmark reform to fast-track infra projects
New Customs modernization law sets PH customs process at par
with intrsquol standards
Nomura RHB Securities on the Philippine economy
2
6
9
12
12
13
16
WHATrsquoS INSIDE
ECONOMYPHJune 2016 | Issue Number 2
A S N A P S H O T O F T H E
P H I L I P P I N E S rsquo E C O N O M I C P A T H
Gross Domestic Product GrowthUnemployment Rate (as of January)
PopulationExportsImportsPer Capita GDP (Current Prices USD)
(Constant 2000 prices USD)
Balance of Payments Position Current Account Cash RemittancesGross International Reserves Inflation RateM3 Growth Php Close per USD (on last trading day)
BSP Rates Repurchase Rate
Reverse Repurchase Rate
SDA rate
Average Bank Lending Rate General Government DebtGDPNational Government DebtGDPNational Government BalanceGDPCredit Ratings Fitch
Moodyrsquos
Standard amp Poorrsquos
Japan Credit Rating Agency
NICE Investors Service
RampI Information Inc
91-day T-bill rate (as of last auction date for the period)
National Government RevenuesGDPPSEi Close (on last trading day)
ROP 10-Year Bond Spread over US Treasuries ROP 5-Year Bond Spread over US Treasuries ROP 10-Year CDS Spread ROP 5-Year CDS Spread
69581026 Mn$13109 Bn $18597 Bn$2932$1779-$210Mn$477Mn$656Bn$8300Bn111174607600400250573(data yet to be released)436-34BBB- PositiveBaa2 StableBBB StableBBB+ StableBBB StableBBB Stable146914772623015581 1053283136213
50661009Mn$14304Bn$17089Bn$2880 1
$1692 2
$877Mn$216Bn$628Bn$8046Bn25944470600400250564363452-11BBB- StableBaa2 StableBBB StableBBB+ StableBBB- PositiveBBB Stable1397155794049151039259111187830
STATS Q1 2016 Q1 2015
1
Quick Stats
1Q1 2016 figure is annualized Q12015 is actual FY2015 2Q1 2016 figure is annualized Q12015 is actual FY2015
PH seen to outperform anew in 2016 Special Feature
Aquino Legacy robustly growing resilient Philippine economy Quick look at accomplishments of outgoing administration
THE PHILIPPINES has been cited as one of the fastest and most resilient economies in the region and the world over the past six years of the Aquino administration Economic growth averaged at 62 percent from 2010 ndash 2015 and accelerated further to 69 percent in the first
quarter of 2016
Once called the ldquoSick Man of Asiardquo the Southeast Asian economy of about 100 million people is now commonly referred to as a ldquobright spotrdquo given its encouraging economic performance despite challenges hurled by the external environment Below is a summary of the Philippinesrsquo economic achievements over the past six years that give credence to its narrative of positive economic transformation
Economic Growth and Per-capita Income From 2010 ndash 2015 the Philippine economy measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 62 percent This is one of the fastest 6-year average in the region and the world and is also the fastest average that the Philippines has registered for the last 40 years
Robust growth over the past six years was driven mainly by favorable macroeconomic environment strong domestic consumption increasing contribution of investments and higher value-adding manufacturing sector Also growth has become more broad-based with the share of investments rising vis-agrave-vis consumption From 208 percent in 2010 investments accounted for 238 percent of the countryrsquos economic output in 2015 Moreover the share of industry sector led by manufacturing also has increased from 326 percent in 2010 to 334 percent in 2015
Growth remained robust in the first quarter of 2016 when GDP expanded by 69 percent the fastest in Asia Pacific during the period even beating Chinarsquos 67 percent
OUTGOING PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT BENIGNO AQUINO III
One of the fastest growing economies regionally and amongst similarly and higher rated peersReal GDP growth ()
Rising average incomePer capita income at current
prices USD
As economic growth outpaces the rise in population the countryrsquos per-capita income likewise improved over the past six years The rise in aggregate income has led to a widening middle class whose growing consumption made the Philippines a good investment destination for multinational companies
+39 +45 +45 +18 +20 +16 +7 +1 +1134th to 95th 2010 to 2015
148th to 103rd 2011 to 2015
115th to 70th 2010 to 2015
22nd to 40th 2010 to 2014
66th to 46th 2013 to 2015
48th to 64th 2012 to 2015
45th to 52nd 2010 to 2014
BB to BBB2010 to 2015
CCC to B2010 to 2015
Transparency International
Corruption Perception
Index
World BankEase of Doing
Business
Heritage Foundation
Index of Economic Freedom
World BankControl of Corruption
WGI
World Economic
ForumHuman Capital
Index
International Budget
PartnershipOpen Budget
Survey
World BankRegulatory
QualityWGI
EIUSovereign Risk
Country Risk Report
EIUPolitical RiskCountry Risk
Report
Global Competitiveness Rankings Favorable economic developments and governance reforms in the Philippines throughout the Aquino administration were widely recognized internationally with the countryrsquos rankings in various global competitiveness surveys taking a leap The Philippinesrsquo rankings have jumped substantially since 2010 including in Transparency Internationalrsquos Corruption Perceptions Index World Bankrsquos Ease of Doing Business Report Heritage Foundationrsquos Index of Economic Freedom and World Economic Forumrsquos Human Capital Index among others
2
Percentile Rank Inverse Ranking
Credit Ratings
The Philippines used to suffer from stubborn speculative credit ratings from almost all international debt watchdogs In 2013 however all major credit rating agencies ndash led by Fitch Ratings Moodyrsquos Investors Service and Standard amp Poorrsquos ndash finally assigned the Philippines the minimum investment grade recognizing the countryrsquos much improved macroeconomic fundamentals This milestone was followed by succeeding credit-rating upgrades in the following years making the Philippines the most upgraded sovereign in the world over the last three years
3
Foreign Direct Investments
Employment Generation
The surge in investments created more jobs thereby resulting in a significant decline in the unemployment rate Job creation is one of the concrete benefits of a growing economy enjoyed by ordinary Filipinos
Unemployment Rate as of April 2010 Unemployment Rate as of April 2016
80 61
Investment grade sovereign credit ratings and leap in global competitiveness which are anchored on sound economic policies and improved macroeconomic fundamentals helped place the Philippines in the radar screen of more investors This is proven by the huge jump in foreign direct investments (FDIs) over the past six years From a mere $107Bn in 2010 net inflow of FDIs reached $57Bn in 2015 marking an increase of over 400 percent
Credit Rating Agency PH Credit Rating in 2010 PH Credit Rating in 2015
Fitch Ratings BB Stable BBB- Positive
Moodyrsquos Investors Service Ba3 Stable Baa2 Stable
Standard amp Poorrsquos BB Stable BBB Stable
Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB - Stable BBB+ Stable
Ratings amp Investment Information Inc
BBB - Stable BBB Stable
NICE Investors Ratings BB+ Stable BBB Stable
Color LegendRed ndash Speculative GradeGreen ndash Investment Grade
ROP gaining attractiveness as an FDI destination
-120 -615 -835
Average Growth of FDI 2012-2015 ()
TH TW PH VN IN SG CH ID2 KR MY
Net Foreign Direct Investment Flows (USD bn)
Infrastructure
Infrastructure development had been one of the key priorities over the past six years with its budget allocation rising substantially year after year
From P1650 Bn or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 the allocation for infrastructure in the national budget ballooned to P7596Bn or 51 percent of GDP in 2016
In addition the government likewise strengthened the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program the framework for which has become an international model that foreign governments are eager to learn about
The PPP Center awarded 12 projects worth P2003Bn under the Aquino administration the most number of PPP deals in the countryrsquos history
4
Government Debt Burden
Rising revenue collection aided partly by administrative reforms that helped the Bureau of Internal Revenue plug tax leakages and prudent debt management policies helped the government bring down its debt burden (the percentage of government debt to the countryrsquos gross domestic product) to a much more manageable level
This has created fiscal space which has allowed government to spend more on development projects and program
Among the debt management strategies included the bias toward domestic borrowings which protected government against risk of foreign exchange movement and the bond swaps under which the Bureau of the Treasury would retire more expensive debt
From 422 percent in 2010 the general government debt as a percentage of GDP had continually dropped and settled at only 363 as of end-December 2015
Moreover the share of interest payments (IP) to both government revenues and expenditures had registered a declining trend over the past six years IPrevenues had fallen from 244 in 2010 to 147 in 2015 while IPexpenditures had decreased from 193 to 139 over the same period
Amount does not include premium payments Change in the total cost of awarded projects from USD48bn to USD44bn accounts for (1) exclusion of OampM cash support of MPOC and approved minimum bid price of CALA and (2) inclusion of variation cost (for MCX and NAIA Expressway) and ODA component (for LRT Line 1 Cavite Ext and OampM)
This does not include 15 projects with no estimated cost yetStatus as of 20 June 2016 USD 1 = PHP 4500
StatusNo of Projects
Est Project Cost (USD bn)
PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Awarded 12 446
Other projects under implementation 2 237
Sub-total 14 683
PPP Pipeline
Projects under procurement 15 1293
For approval of relevant government bodies
5 227
For finalization of project structure 1 1191
Projects with ongoing studies 3 009
Under conceptualization or development 14 TBD
Sub-total 39 2720
Total 53 3403
Steady decline in the Republicrsquos interest service burden
Economic Laws
Game-changing economic laws which are expected to provide long-term benefits were enacted during the Aquino administration These laws will help build on the economic gains achieved by the Philippines in the past and help bring about a sustainable and more inclusive growth
Some of the landmark pieces of economic legislation are listed below
Law Description
Government-Owned-and-Controlled Corporations Governance Act of 2011 (RA No 10149)
Promotes financial viability and fiscal sustainability in GOCCs and strengthens the role of the State in the governance and management of GOCCs to make them more responsive to public needs
Sin Tax Reform law (RA No 10351) Raised taxes on cigarettes and alcohol to generate more revenues for government Incremental revenues are earmarked to finance the Universal Health Care Program
Enhanced Basic Education Act (RA No 10533)
Adds two more years in the Philippine education system to be at par with international standards
Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act (RA No 10354)
Strengthens the governmentrsquos awareness campaign for responsible parenthood and beefs up government resources for family planning
Foreign Bank Liberalization Law (RA No 10641)
Fully opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign investments allowed foreign banks to set up shop in the country even without local partner
Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act (RA No 10708)
Requires reporting of fiscal incentives received by enterprises and for government to review cost effectiveness of tax- and duty-free perks
Foreign Vessels Co-loading Act (RA No 10668)
Allows foreign vessels to dock in multiple ports in the country thereby helping reduce transportation cost and overall cost of imported goods
Credit Surety Fund Cooperative Act (RA No 10744)
Institutionalizes the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program under which funds are pooled from cooperatives local government units state-owned banks and other contributors and the funds serve as collateral for bank loans applied for by micro small and medium enterprises
Philippine Competition Act (RA No 10667)
Puts in place an anti-trust authority ndash the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) ndash which seeks to promote fair market competition and penalize anti-competitive market practices This is meant to strengthen consumer protection and to open up industries to more investments
Right-of-Way Act (RA No 10752)
Provides clear and standard guidelines for governmentrsquos acquisition of properties and right of way in order to facilitate implementation of public infrastructure projects This addresses bottlenecks in infrastructure projects caused by right-of-way problems
Department of Information amp Communications Technology Act (RA No 10844)
Puts in place a government agency that will seek improvement in the delivery of information technology and telecommunication services in the country The agency is called the Department of Information amp Communications Technology
Amendments to the Charter of Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (RA No 10846)
Strengthens the PDIC and allows for streamlined procedures in liquidation of banks thereby ensuring faster recovery of assets of creditors of closed banks and faster payment of deposit insurance to depositors
Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (RA No 10863)
Modernizes the way the Bureau of Customs facilitates importation thereby hastening the release of shipments from customs ports
With the economic achievements of the Philippines over the past six years the Aquino administration indeed is turning over a much stronger Philippine economy to the incoming Duterte Administration
Along this line outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said ldquoWe are pleased to be turning over a strong and stable economy onto the next administration We have achieved significant socioeconomic progress over the last five years with the return of political and economic stability which we hope the incoming administration will build onrdquo
5
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
ECONOMYPHJune 2016 | Issue Number 2
A S N A P S H O T O F T H E
P H I L I P P I N E S rsquo E C O N O M I C P A T H
Gross Domestic Product GrowthUnemployment Rate (as of January)
PopulationExportsImportsPer Capita GDP (Current Prices USD)
(Constant 2000 prices USD)
Balance of Payments Position Current Account Cash RemittancesGross International Reserves Inflation RateM3 Growth Php Close per USD (on last trading day)
BSP Rates Repurchase Rate
Reverse Repurchase Rate
SDA rate
Average Bank Lending Rate General Government DebtGDPNational Government DebtGDPNational Government BalanceGDPCredit Ratings Fitch
Moodyrsquos
Standard amp Poorrsquos
Japan Credit Rating Agency
NICE Investors Service
RampI Information Inc
91-day T-bill rate (as of last auction date for the period)
National Government RevenuesGDPPSEi Close (on last trading day)
ROP 10-Year Bond Spread over US Treasuries ROP 5-Year Bond Spread over US Treasuries ROP 10-Year CDS Spread ROP 5-Year CDS Spread
69581026 Mn$13109 Bn $18597 Bn$2932$1779-$210Mn$477Mn$656Bn$8300Bn111174607600400250573(data yet to be released)436-34BBB- PositiveBaa2 StableBBB StableBBB+ StableBBB StableBBB Stable146914772623015581 1053283136213
50661009Mn$14304Bn$17089Bn$2880 1
$1692 2
$877Mn$216Bn$628Bn$8046Bn25944470600400250564363452-11BBB- StableBaa2 StableBBB StableBBB+ StableBBB- PositiveBBB Stable1397155794049151039259111187830
STATS Q1 2016 Q1 2015
1
Quick Stats
1Q1 2016 figure is annualized Q12015 is actual FY2015 2Q1 2016 figure is annualized Q12015 is actual FY2015
PH seen to outperform anew in 2016 Special Feature
Aquino Legacy robustly growing resilient Philippine economy Quick look at accomplishments of outgoing administration
THE PHILIPPINES has been cited as one of the fastest and most resilient economies in the region and the world over the past six years of the Aquino administration Economic growth averaged at 62 percent from 2010 ndash 2015 and accelerated further to 69 percent in the first
quarter of 2016
Once called the ldquoSick Man of Asiardquo the Southeast Asian economy of about 100 million people is now commonly referred to as a ldquobright spotrdquo given its encouraging economic performance despite challenges hurled by the external environment Below is a summary of the Philippinesrsquo economic achievements over the past six years that give credence to its narrative of positive economic transformation
Economic Growth and Per-capita Income From 2010 ndash 2015 the Philippine economy measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 62 percent This is one of the fastest 6-year average in the region and the world and is also the fastest average that the Philippines has registered for the last 40 years
Robust growth over the past six years was driven mainly by favorable macroeconomic environment strong domestic consumption increasing contribution of investments and higher value-adding manufacturing sector Also growth has become more broad-based with the share of investments rising vis-agrave-vis consumption From 208 percent in 2010 investments accounted for 238 percent of the countryrsquos economic output in 2015 Moreover the share of industry sector led by manufacturing also has increased from 326 percent in 2010 to 334 percent in 2015
Growth remained robust in the first quarter of 2016 when GDP expanded by 69 percent the fastest in Asia Pacific during the period even beating Chinarsquos 67 percent
OUTGOING PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT BENIGNO AQUINO III
One of the fastest growing economies regionally and amongst similarly and higher rated peersReal GDP growth ()
Rising average incomePer capita income at current
prices USD
As economic growth outpaces the rise in population the countryrsquos per-capita income likewise improved over the past six years The rise in aggregate income has led to a widening middle class whose growing consumption made the Philippines a good investment destination for multinational companies
+39 +45 +45 +18 +20 +16 +7 +1 +1134th to 95th 2010 to 2015
148th to 103rd 2011 to 2015
115th to 70th 2010 to 2015
22nd to 40th 2010 to 2014
66th to 46th 2013 to 2015
48th to 64th 2012 to 2015
45th to 52nd 2010 to 2014
BB to BBB2010 to 2015
CCC to B2010 to 2015
Transparency International
Corruption Perception
Index
World BankEase of Doing
Business
Heritage Foundation
Index of Economic Freedom
World BankControl of Corruption
WGI
World Economic
ForumHuman Capital
Index
International Budget
PartnershipOpen Budget
Survey
World BankRegulatory
QualityWGI
EIUSovereign Risk
Country Risk Report
EIUPolitical RiskCountry Risk
Report
Global Competitiveness Rankings Favorable economic developments and governance reforms in the Philippines throughout the Aquino administration were widely recognized internationally with the countryrsquos rankings in various global competitiveness surveys taking a leap The Philippinesrsquo rankings have jumped substantially since 2010 including in Transparency Internationalrsquos Corruption Perceptions Index World Bankrsquos Ease of Doing Business Report Heritage Foundationrsquos Index of Economic Freedom and World Economic Forumrsquos Human Capital Index among others
2
Percentile Rank Inverse Ranking
Credit Ratings
The Philippines used to suffer from stubborn speculative credit ratings from almost all international debt watchdogs In 2013 however all major credit rating agencies ndash led by Fitch Ratings Moodyrsquos Investors Service and Standard amp Poorrsquos ndash finally assigned the Philippines the minimum investment grade recognizing the countryrsquos much improved macroeconomic fundamentals This milestone was followed by succeeding credit-rating upgrades in the following years making the Philippines the most upgraded sovereign in the world over the last three years
3
Foreign Direct Investments
Employment Generation
The surge in investments created more jobs thereby resulting in a significant decline in the unemployment rate Job creation is one of the concrete benefits of a growing economy enjoyed by ordinary Filipinos
Unemployment Rate as of April 2010 Unemployment Rate as of April 2016
80 61
Investment grade sovereign credit ratings and leap in global competitiveness which are anchored on sound economic policies and improved macroeconomic fundamentals helped place the Philippines in the radar screen of more investors This is proven by the huge jump in foreign direct investments (FDIs) over the past six years From a mere $107Bn in 2010 net inflow of FDIs reached $57Bn in 2015 marking an increase of over 400 percent
Credit Rating Agency PH Credit Rating in 2010 PH Credit Rating in 2015
Fitch Ratings BB Stable BBB- Positive
Moodyrsquos Investors Service Ba3 Stable Baa2 Stable
Standard amp Poorrsquos BB Stable BBB Stable
Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB - Stable BBB+ Stable
Ratings amp Investment Information Inc
BBB - Stable BBB Stable
NICE Investors Ratings BB+ Stable BBB Stable
Color LegendRed ndash Speculative GradeGreen ndash Investment Grade
ROP gaining attractiveness as an FDI destination
-120 -615 -835
Average Growth of FDI 2012-2015 ()
TH TW PH VN IN SG CH ID2 KR MY
Net Foreign Direct Investment Flows (USD bn)
Infrastructure
Infrastructure development had been one of the key priorities over the past six years with its budget allocation rising substantially year after year
From P1650 Bn or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 the allocation for infrastructure in the national budget ballooned to P7596Bn or 51 percent of GDP in 2016
In addition the government likewise strengthened the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program the framework for which has become an international model that foreign governments are eager to learn about
The PPP Center awarded 12 projects worth P2003Bn under the Aquino administration the most number of PPP deals in the countryrsquos history
4
Government Debt Burden
Rising revenue collection aided partly by administrative reforms that helped the Bureau of Internal Revenue plug tax leakages and prudent debt management policies helped the government bring down its debt burden (the percentage of government debt to the countryrsquos gross domestic product) to a much more manageable level
This has created fiscal space which has allowed government to spend more on development projects and program
Among the debt management strategies included the bias toward domestic borrowings which protected government against risk of foreign exchange movement and the bond swaps under which the Bureau of the Treasury would retire more expensive debt
From 422 percent in 2010 the general government debt as a percentage of GDP had continually dropped and settled at only 363 as of end-December 2015
Moreover the share of interest payments (IP) to both government revenues and expenditures had registered a declining trend over the past six years IPrevenues had fallen from 244 in 2010 to 147 in 2015 while IPexpenditures had decreased from 193 to 139 over the same period
Amount does not include premium payments Change in the total cost of awarded projects from USD48bn to USD44bn accounts for (1) exclusion of OampM cash support of MPOC and approved minimum bid price of CALA and (2) inclusion of variation cost (for MCX and NAIA Expressway) and ODA component (for LRT Line 1 Cavite Ext and OampM)
This does not include 15 projects with no estimated cost yetStatus as of 20 June 2016 USD 1 = PHP 4500
StatusNo of Projects
Est Project Cost (USD bn)
PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Awarded 12 446
Other projects under implementation 2 237
Sub-total 14 683
PPP Pipeline
Projects under procurement 15 1293
For approval of relevant government bodies
5 227
For finalization of project structure 1 1191
Projects with ongoing studies 3 009
Under conceptualization or development 14 TBD
Sub-total 39 2720
Total 53 3403
Steady decline in the Republicrsquos interest service burden
Economic Laws
Game-changing economic laws which are expected to provide long-term benefits were enacted during the Aquino administration These laws will help build on the economic gains achieved by the Philippines in the past and help bring about a sustainable and more inclusive growth
Some of the landmark pieces of economic legislation are listed below
Law Description
Government-Owned-and-Controlled Corporations Governance Act of 2011 (RA No 10149)
Promotes financial viability and fiscal sustainability in GOCCs and strengthens the role of the State in the governance and management of GOCCs to make them more responsive to public needs
Sin Tax Reform law (RA No 10351) Raised taxes on cigarettes and alcohol to generate more revenues for government Incremental revenues are earmarked to finance the Universal Health Care Program
Enhanced Basic Education Act (RA No 10533)
Adds two more years in the Philippine education system to be at par with international standards
Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act (RA No 10354)
Strengthens the governmentrsquos awareness campaign for responsible parenthood and beefs up government resources for family planning
Foreign Bank Liberalization Law (RA No 10641)
Fully opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign investments allowed foreign banks to set up shop in the country even without local partner
Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act (RA No 10708)
Requires reporting of fiscal incentives received by enterprises and for government to review cost effectiveness of tax- and duty-free perks
Foreign Vessels Co-loading Act (RA No 10668)
Allows foreign vessels to dock in multiple ports in the country thereby helping reduce transportation cost and overall cost of imported goods
Credit Surety Fund Cooperative Act (RA No 10744)
Institutionalizes the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program under which funds are pooled from cooperatives local government units state-owned banks and other contributors and the funds serve as collateral for bank loans applied for by micro small and medium enterprises
Philippine Competition Act (RA No 10667)
Puts in place an anti-trust authority ndash the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) ndash which seeks to promote fair market competition and penalize anti-competitive market practices This is meant to strengthen consumer protection and to open up industries to more investments
Right-of-Way Act (RA No 10752)
Provides clear and standard guidelines for governmentrsquos acquisition of properties and right of way in order to facilitate implementation of public infrastructure projects This addresses bottlenecks in infrastructure projects caused by right-of-way problems
Department of Information amp Communications Technology Act (RA No 10844)
Puts in place a government agency that will seek improvement in the delivery of information technology and telecommunication services in the country The agency is called the Department of Information amp Communications Technology
Amendments to the Charter of Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (RA No 10846)
Strengthens the PDIC and allows for streamlined procedures in liquidation of banks thereby ensuring faster recovery of assets of creditors of closed banks and faster payment of deposit insurance to depositors
Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (RA No 10863)
Modernizes the way the Bureau of Customs facilitates importation thereby hastening the release of shipments from customs ports
With the economic achievements of the Philippines over the past six years the Aquino administration indeed is turning over a much stronger Philippine economy to the incoming Duterte Administration
Along this line outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said ldquoWe are pleased to be turning over a strong and stable economy onto the next administration We have achieved significant socioeconomic progress over the last five years with the return of political and economic stability which we hope the incoming administration will build onrdquo
5
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
PH seen to outperform anew in 2016 Special Feature
Aquino Legacy robustly growing resilient Philippine economy Quick look at accomplishments of outgoing administration
THE PHILIPPINES has been cited as one of the fastest and most resilient economies in the region and the world over the past six years of the Aquino administration Economic growth averaged at 62 percent from 2010 ndash 2015 and accelerated further to 69 percent in the first
quarter of 2016
Once called the ldquoSick Man of Asiardquo the Southeast Asian economy of about 100 million people is now commonly referred to as a ldquobright spotrdquo given its encouraging economic performance despite challenges hurled by the external environment Below is a summary of the Philippinesrsquo economic achievements over the past six years that give credence to its narrative of positive economic transformation
Economic Growth and Per-capita Income From 2010 ndash 2015 the Philippine economy measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) grew by an average of 62 percent This is one of the fastest 6-year average in the region and the world and is also the fastest average that the Philippines has registered for the last 40 years
Robust growth over the past six years was driven mainly by favorable macroeconomic environment strong domestic consumption increasing contribution of investments and higher value-adding manufacturing sector Also growth has become more broad-based with the share of investments rising vis-agrave-vis consumption From 208 percent in 2010 investments accounted for 238 percent of the countryrsquos economic output in 2015 Moreover the share of industry sector led by manufacturing also has increased from 326 percent in 2010 to 334 percent in 2015
Growth remained robust in the first quarter of 2016 when GDP expanded by 69 percent the fastest in Asia Pacific during the period even beating Chinarsquos 67 percent
OUTGOING PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT BENIGNO AQUINO III
One of the fastest growing economies regionally and amongst similarly and higher rated peersReal GDP growth ()
Rising average incomePer capita income at current
prices USD
As economic growth outpaces the rise in population the countryrsquos per-capita income likewise improved over the past six years The rise in aggregate income has led to a widening middle class whose growing consumption made the Philippines a good investment destination for multinational companies
+39 +45 +45 +18 +20 +16 +7 +1 +1134th to 95th 2010 to 2015
148th to 103rd 2011 to 2015
115th to 70th 2010 to 2015
22nd to 40th 2010 to 2014
66th to 46th 2013 to 2015
48th to 64th 2012 to 2015
45th to 52nd 2010 to 2014
BB to BBB2010 to 2015
CCC to B2010 to 2015
Transparency International
Corruption Perception
Index
World BankEase of Doing
Business
Heritage Foundation
Index of Economic Freedom
World BankControl of Corruption
WGI
World Economic
ForumHuman Capital
Index
International Budget
PartnershipOpen Budget
Survey
World BankRegulatory
QualityWGI
EIUSovereign Risk
Country Risk Report
EIUPolitical RiskCountry Risk
Report
Global Competitiveness Rankings Favorable economic developments and governance reforms in the Philippines throughout the Aquino administration were widely recognized internationally with the countryrsquos rankings in various global competitiveness surveys taking a leap The Philippinesrsquo rankings have jumped substantially since 2010 including in Transparency Internationalrsquos Corruption Perceptions Index World Bankrsquos Ease of Doing Business Report Heritage Foundationrsquos Index of Economic Freedom and World Economic Forumrsquos Human Capital Index among others
2
Percentile Rank Inverse Ranking
Credit Ratings
The Philippines used to suffer from stubborn speculative credit ratings from almost all international debt watchdogs In 2013 however all major credit rating agencies ndash led by Fitch Ratings Moodyrsquos Investors Service and Standard amp Poorrsquos ndash finally assigned the Philippines the minimum investment grade recognizing the countryrsquos much improved macroeconomic fundamentals This milestone was followed by succeeding credit-rating upgrades in the following years making the Philippines the most upgraded sovereign in the world over the last three years
3
Foreign Direct Investments
Employment Generation
The surge in investments created more jobs thereby resulting in a significant decline in the unemployment rate Job creation is one of the concrete benefits of a growing economy enjoyed by ordinary Filipinos
Unemployment Rate as of April 2010 Unemployment Rate as of April 2016
80 61
Investment grade sovereign credit ratings and leap in global competitiveness which are anchored on sound economic policies and improved macroeconomic fundamentals helped place the Philippines in the radar screen of more investors This is proven by the huge jump in foreign direct investments (FDIs) over the past six years From a mere $107Bn in 2010 net inflow of FDIs reached $57Bn in 2015 marking an increase of over 400 percent
Credit Rating Agency PH Credit Rating in 2010 PH Credit Rating in 2015
Fitch Ratings BB Stable BBB- Positive
Moodyrsquos Investors Service Ba3 Stable Baa2 Stable
Standard amp Poorrsquos BB Stable BBB Stable
Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB - Stable BBB+ Stable
Ratings amp Investment Information Inc
BBB - Stable BBB Stable
NICE Investors Ratings BB+ Stable BBB Stable
Color LegendRed ndash Speculative GradeGreen ndash Investment Grade
ROP gaining attractiveness as an FDI destination
-120 -615 -835
Average Growth of FDI 2012-2015 ()
TH TW PH VN IN SG CH ID2 KR MY
Net Foreign Direct Investment Flows (USD bn)
Infrastructure
Infrastructure development had been one of the key priorities over the past six years with its budget allocation rising substantially year after year
From P1650 Bn or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 the allocation for infrastructure in the national budget ballooned to P7596Bn or 51 percent of GDP in 2016
In addition the government likewise strengthened the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program the framework for which has become an international model that foreign governments are eager to learn about
The PPP Center awarded 12 projects worth P2003Bn under the Aquino administration the most number of PPP deals in the countryrsquos history
4
Government Debt Burden
Rising revenue collection aided partly by administrative reforms that helped the Bureau of Internal Revenue plug tax leakages and prudent debt management policies helped the government bring down its debt burden (the percentage of government debt to the countryrsquos gross domestic product) to a much more manageable level
This has created fiscal space which has allowed government to spend more on development projects and program
Among the debt management strategies included the bias toward domestic borrowings which protected government against risk of foreign exchange movement and the bond swaps under which the Bureau of the Treasury would retire more expensive debt
From 422 percent in 2010 the general government debt as a percentage of GDP had continually dropped and settled at only 363 as of end-December 2015
Moreover the share of interest payments (IP) to both government revenues and expenditures had registered a declining trend over the past six years IPrevenues had fallen from 244 in 2010 to 147 in 2015 while IPexpenditures had decreased from 193 to 139 over the same period
Amount does not include premium payments Change in the total cost of awarded projects from USD48bn to USD44bn accounts for (1) exclusion of OampM cash support of MPOC and approved minimum bid price of CALA and (2) inclusion of variation cost (for MCX and NAIA Expressway) and ODA component (for LRT Line 1 Cavite Ext and OampM)
This does not include 15 projects with no estimated cost yetStatus as of 20 June 2016 USD 1 = PHP 4500
StatusNo of Projects
Est Project Cost (USD bn)
PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Awarded 12 446
Other projects under implementation 2 237
Sub-total 14 683
PPP Pipeline
Projects under procurement 15 1293
For approval of relevant government bodies
5 227
For finalization of project structure 1 1191
Projects with ongoing studies 3 009
Under conceptualization or development 14 TBD
Sub-total 39 2720
Total 53 3403
Steady decline in the Republicrsquos interest service burden
Economic Laws
Game-changing economic laws which are expected to provide long-term benefits were enacted during the Aquino administration These laws will help build on the economic gains achieved by the Philippines in the past and help bring about a sustainable and more inclusive growth
Some of the landmark pieces of economic legislation are listed below
Law Description
Government-Owned-and-Controlled Corporations Governance Act of 2011 (RA No 10149)
Promotes financial viability and fiscal sustainability in GOCCs and strengthens the role of the State in the governance and management of GOCCs to make them more responsive to public needs
Sin Tax Reform law (RA No 10351) Raised taxes on cigarettes and alcohol to generate more revenues for government Incremental revenues are earmarked to finance the Universal Health Care Program
Enhanced Basic Education Act (RA No 10533)
Adds two more years in the Philippine education system to be at par with international standards
Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act (RA No 10354)
Strengthens the governmentrsquos awareness campaign for responsible parenthood and beefs up government resources for family planning
Foreign Bank Liberalization Law (RA No 10641)
Fully opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign investments allowed foreign banks to set up shop in the country even without local partner
Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act (RA No 10708)
Requires reporting of fiscal incentives received by enterprises and for government to review cost effectiveness of tax- and duty-free perks
Foreign Vessels Co-loading Act (RA No 10668)
Allows foreign vessels to dock in multiple ports in the country thereby helping reduce transportation cost and overall cost of imported goods
Credit Surety Fund Cooperative Act (RA No 10744)
Institutionalizes the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program under which funds are pooled from cooperatives local government units state-owned banks and other contributors and the funds serve as collateral for bank loans applied for by micro small and medium enterprises
Philippine Competition Act (RA No 10667)
Puts in place an anti-trust authority ndash the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) ndash which seeks to promote fair market competition and penalize anti-competitive market practices This is meant to strengthen consumer protection and to open up industries to more investments
Right-of-Way Act (RA No 10752)
Provides clear and standard guidelines for governmentrsquos acquisition of properties and right of way in order to facilitate implementation of public infrastructure projects This addresses bottlenecks in infrastructure projects caused by right-of-way problems
Department of Information amp Communications Technology Act (RA No 10844)
Puts in place a government agency that will seek improvement in the delivery of information technology and telecommunication services in the country The agency is called the Department of Information amp Communications Technology
Amendments to the Charter of Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (RA No 10846)
Strengthens the PDIC and allows for streamlined procedures in liquidation of banks thereby ensuring faster recovery of assets of creditors of closed banks and faster payment of deposit insurance to depositors
Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (RA No 10863)
Modernizes the way the Bureau of Customs facilitates importation thereby hastening the release of shipments from customs ports
With the economic achievements of the Philippines over the past six years the Aquino administration indeed is turning over a much stronger Philippine economy to the incoming Duterte Administration
Along this line outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said ldquoWe are pleased to be turning over a strong and stable economy onto the next administration We have achieved significant socioeconomic progress over the last five years with the return of political and economic stability which we hope the incoming administration will build onrdquo
5
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Credit Ratings
The Philippines used to suffer from stubborn speculative credit ratings from almost all international debt watchdogs In 2013 however all major credit rating agencies ndash led by Fitch Ratings Moodyrsquos Investors Service and Standard amp Poorrsquos ndash finally assigned the Philippines the minimum investment grade recognizing the countryrsquos much improved macroeconomic fundamentals This milestone was followed by succeeding credit-rating upgrades in the following years making the Philippines the most upgraded sovereign in the world over the last three years
3
Foreign Direct Investments
Employment Generation
The surge in investments created more jobs thereby resulting in a significant decline in the unemployment rate Job creation is one of the concrete benefits of a growing economy enjoyed by ordinary Filipinos
Unemployment Rate as of April 2010 Unemployment Rate as of April 2016
80 61
Investment grade sovereign credit ratings and leap in global competitiveness which are anchored on sound economic policies and improved macroeconomic fundamentals helped place the Philippines in the radar screen of more investors This is proven by the huge jump in foreign direct investments (FDIs) over the past six years From a mere $107Bn in 2010 net inflow of FDIs reached $57Bn in 2015 marking an increase of over 400 percent
Credit Rating Agency PH Credit Rating in 2010 PH Credit Rating in 2015
Fitch Ratings BB Stable BBB- Positive
Moodyrsquos Investors Service Ba3 Stable Baa2 Stable
Standard amp Poorrsquos BB Stable BBB Stable
Japan Credit Rating Agency BBB - Stable BBB+ Stable
Ratings amp Investment Information Inc
BBB - Stable BBB Stable
NICE Investors Ratings BB+ Stable BBB Stable
Color LegendRed ndash Speculative GradeGreen ndash Investment Grade
ROP gaining attractiveness as an FDI destination
-120 -615 -835
Average Growth of FDI 2012-2015 ()
TH TW PH VN IN SG CH ID2 KR MY
Net Foreign Direct Investment Flows (USD bn)
Infrastructure
Infrastructure development had been one of the key priorities over the past six years with its budget allocation rising substantially year after year
From P1650 Bn or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 the allocation for infrastructure in the national budget ballooned to P7596Bn or 51 percent of GDP in 2016
In addition the government likewise strengthened the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program the framework for which has become an international model that foreign governments are eager to learn about
The PPP Center awarded 12 projects worth P2003Bn under the Aquino administration the most number of PPP deals in the countryrsquos history
4
Government Debt Burden
Rising revenue collection aided partly by administrative reforms that helped the Bureau of Internal Revenue plug tax leakages and prudent debt management policies helped the government bring down its debt burden (the percentage of government debt to the countryrsquos gross domestic product) to a much more manageable level
This has created fiscal space which has allowed government to spend more on development projects and program
Among the debt management strategies included the bias toward domestic borrowings which protected government against risk of foreign exchange movement and the bond swaps under which the Bureau of the Treasury would retire more expensive debt
From 422 percent in 2010 the general government debt as a percentage of GDP had continually dropped and settled at only 363 as of end-December 2015
Moreover the share of interest payments (IP) to both government revenues and expenditures had registered a declining trend over the past six years IPrevenues had fallen from 244 in 2010 to 147 in 2015 while IPexpenditures had decreased from 193 to 139 over the same period
Amount does not include premium payments Change in the total cost of awarded projects from USD48bn to USD44bn accounts for (1) exclusion of OampM cash support of MPOC and approved minimum bid price of CALA and (2) inclusion of variation cost (for MCX and NAIA Expressway) and ODA component (for LRT Line 1 Cavite Ext and OampM)
This does not include 15 projects with no estimated cost yetStatus as of 20 June 2016 USD 1 = PHP 4500
StatusNo of Projects
Est Project Cost (USD bn)
PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Awarded 12 446
Other projects under implementation 2 237
Sub-total 14 683
PPP Pipeline
Projects under procurement 15 1293
For approval of relevant government bodies
5 227
For finalization of project structure 1 1191
Projects with ongoing studies 3 009
Under conceptualization or development 14 TBD
Sub-total 39 2720
Total 53 3403
Steady decline in the Republicrsquos interest service burden
Economic Laws
Game-changing economic laws which are expected to provide long-term benefits were enacted during the Aquino administration These laws will help build on the economic gains achieved by the Philippines in the past and help bring about a sustainable and more inclusive growth
Some of the landmark pieces of economic legislation are listed below
Law Description
Government-Owned-and-Controlled Corporations Governance Act of 2011 (RA No 10149)
Promotes financial viability and fiscal sustainability in GOCCs and strengthens the role of the State in the governance and management of GOCCs to make them more responsive to public needs
Sin Tax Reform law (RA No 10351) Raised taxes on cigarettes and alcohol to generate more revenues for government Incremental revenues are earmarked to finance the Universal Health Care Program
Enhanced Basic Education Act (RA No 10533)
Adds two more years in the Philippine education system to be at par with international standards
Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act (RA No 10354)
Strengthens the governmentrsquos awareness campaign for responsible parenthood and beefs up government resources for family planning
Foreign Bank Liberalization Law (RA No 10641)
Fully opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign investments allowed foreign banks to set up shop in the country even without local partner
Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act (RA No 10708)
Requires reporting of fiscal incentives received by enterprises and for government to review cost effectiveness of tax- and duty-free perks
Foreign Vessels Co-loading Act (RA No 10668)
Allows foreign vessels to dock in multiple ports in the country thereby helping reduce transportation cost and overall cost of imported goods
Credit Surety Fund Cooperative Act (RA No 10744)
Institutionalizes the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program under which funds are pooled from cooperatives local government units state-owned banks and other contributors and the funds serve as collateral for bank loans applied for by micro small and medium enterprises
Philippine Competition Act (RA No 10667)
Puts in place an anti-trust authority ndash the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) ndash which seeks to promote fair market competition and penalize anti-competitive market practices This is meant to strengthen consumer protection and to open up industries to more investments
Right-of-Way Act (RA No 10752)
Provides clear and standard guidelines for governmentrsquos acquisition of properties and right of way in order to facilitate implementation of public infrastructure projects This addresses bottlenecks in infrastructure projects caused by right-of-way problems
Department of Information amp Communications Technology Act (RA No 10844)
Puts in place a government agency that will seek improvement in the delivery of information technology and telecommunication services in the country The agency is called the Department of Information amp Communications Technology
Amendments to the Charter of Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (RA No 10846)
Strengthens the PDIC and allows for streamlined procedures in liquidation of banks thereby ensuring faster recovery of assets of creditors of closed banks and faster payment of deposit insurance to depositors
Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (RA No 10863)
Modernizes the way the Bureau of Customs facilitates importation thereby hastening the release of shipments from customs ports
With the economic achievements of the Philippines over the past six years the Aquino administration indeed is turning over a much stronger Philippine economy to the incoming Duterte Administration
Along this line outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said ldquoWe are pleased to be turning over a strong and stable economy onto the next administration We have achieved significant socioeconomic progress over the last five years with the return of political and economic stability which we hope the incoming administration will build onrdquo
5
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Infrastructure
Infrastructure development had been one of the key priorities over the past six years with its budget allocation rising substantially year after year
From P1650 Bn or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 the allocation for infrastructure in the national budget ballooned to P7596Bn or 51 percent of GDP in 2016
In addition the government likewise strengthened the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program the framework for which has become an international model that foreign governments are eager to learn about
The PPP Center awarded 12 projects worth P2003Bn under the Aquino administration the most number of PPP deals in the countryrsquos history
4
Government Debt Burden
Rising revenue collection aided partly by administrative reforms that helped the Bureau of Internal Revenue plug tax leakages and prudent debt management policies helped the government bring down its debt burden (the percentage of government debt to the countryrsquos gross domestic product) to a much more manageable level
This has created fiscal space which has allowed government to spend more on development projects and program
Among the debt management strategies included the bias toward domestic borrowings which protected government against risk of foreign exchange movement and the bond swaps under which the Bureau of the Treasury would retire more expensive debt
From 422 percent in 2010 the general government debt as a percentage of GDP had continually dropped and settled at only 363 as of end-December 2015
Moreover the share of interest payments (IP) to both government revenues and expenditures had registered a declining trend over the past six years IPrevenues had fallen from 244 in 2010 to 147 in 2015 while IPexpenditures had decreased from 193 to 139 over the same period
Amount does not include premium payments Change in the total cost of awarded projects from USD48bn to USD44bn accounts for (1) exclusion of OampM cash support of MPOC and approved minimum bid price of CALA and (2) inclusion of variation cost (for MCX and NAIA Expressway) and ODA component (for LRT Line 1 Cavite Ext and OampM)
This does not include 15 projects with no estimated cost yetStatus as of 20 June 2016 USD 1 = PHP 4500
StatusNo of Projects
Est Project Cost (USD bn)
PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
Awarded 12 446
Other projects under implementation 2 237
Sub-total 14 683
PPP Pipeline
Projects under procurement 15 1293
For approval of relevant government bodies
5 227
For finalization of project structure 1 1191
Projects with ongoing studies 3 009
Under conceptualization or development 14 TBD
Sub-total 39 2720
Total 53 3403
Steady decline in the Republicrsquos interest service burden
Economic Laws
Game-changing economic laws which are expected to provide long-term benefits were enacted during the Aquino administration These laws will help build on the economic gains achieved by the Philippines in the past and help bring about a sustainable and more inclusive growth
Some of the landmark pieces of economic legislation are listed below
Law Description
Government-Owned-and-Controlled Corporations Governance Act of 2011 (RA No 10149)
Promotes financial viability and fiscal sustainability in GOCCs and strengthens the role of the State in the governance and management of GOCCs to make them more responsive to public needs
Sin Tax Reform law (RA No 10351) Raised taxes on cigarettes and alcohol to generate more revenues for government Incremental revenues are earmarked to finance the Universal Health Care Program
Enhanced Basic Education Act (RA No 10533)
Adds two more years in the Philippine education system to be at par with international standards
Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act (RA No 10354)
Strengthens the governmentrsquos awareness campaign for responsible parenthood and beefs up government resources for family planning
Foreign Bank Liberalization Law (RA No 10641)
Fully opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign investments allowed foreign banks to set up shop in the country even without local partner
Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act (RA No 10708)
Requires reporting of fiscal incentives received by enterprises and for government to review cost effectiveness of tax- and duty-free perks
Foreign Vessels Co-loading Act (RA No 10668)
Allows foreign vessels to dock in multiple ports in the country thereby helping reduce transportation cost and overall cost of imported goods
Credit Surety Fund Cooperative Act (RA No 10744)
Institutionalizes the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program under which funds are pooled from cooperatives local government units state-owned banks and other contributors and the funds serve as collateral for bank loans applied for by micro small and medium enterprises
Philippine Competition Act (RA No 10667)
Puts in place an anti-trust authority ndash the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) ndash which seeks to promote fair market competition and penalize anti-competitive market practices This is meant to strengthen consumer protection and to open up industries to more investments
Right-of-Way Act (RA No 10752)
Provides clear and standard guidelines for governmentrsquos acquisition of properties and right of way in order to facilitate implementation of public infrastructure projects This addresses bottlenecks in infrastructure projects caused by right-of-way problems
Department of Information amp Communications Technology Act (RA No 10844)
Puts in place a government agency that will seek improvement in the delivery of information technology and telecommunication services in the country The agency is called the Department of Information amp Communications Technology
Amendments to the Charter of Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (RA No 10846)
Strengthens the PDIC and allows for streamlined procedures in liquidation of banks thereby ensuring faster recovery of assets of creditors of closed banks and faster payment of deposit insurance to depositors
Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (RA No 10863)
Modernizes the way the Bureau of Customs facilitates importation thereby hastening the release of shipments from customs ports
With the economic achievements of the Philippines over the past six years the Aquino administration indeed is turning over a much stronger Philippine economy to the incoming Duterte Administration
Along this line outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said ldquoWe are pleased to be turning over a strong and stable economy onto the next administration We have achieved significant socioeconomic progress over the last five years with the return of political and economic stability which we hope the incoming administration will build onrdquo
5
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Economic Laws
Game-changing economic laws which are expected to provide long-term benefits were enacted during the Aquino administration These laws will help build on the economic gains achieved by the Philippines in the past and help bring about a sustainable and more inclusive growth
Some of the landmark pieces of economic legislation are listed below
Law Description
Government-Owned-and-Controlled Corporations Governance Act of 2011 (RA No 10149)
Promotes financial viability and fiscal sustainability in GOCCs and strengthens the role of the State in the governance and management of GOCCs to make them more responsive to public needs
Sin Tax Reform law (RA No 10351) Raised taxes on cigarettes and alcohol to generate more revenues for government Incremental revenues are earmarked to finance the Universal Health Care Program
Enhanced Basic Education Act (RA No 10533)
Adds two more years in the Philippine education system to be at par with international standards
Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Act (RA No 10354)
Strengthens the governmentrsquos awareness campaign for responsible parenthood and beefs up government resources for family planning
Foreign Bank Liberalization Law (RA No 10641)
Fully opened up the domestic banking sector to foreign investments allowed foreign banks to set up shop in the country even without local partner
Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act (RA No 10708)
Requires reporting of fiscal incentives received by enterprises and for government to review cost effectiveness of tax- and duty-free perks
Foreign Vessels Co-loading Act (RA No 10668)
Allows foreign vessels to dock in multiple ports in the country thereby helping reduce transportation cost and overall cost of imported goods
Credit Surety Fund Cooperative Act (RA No 10744)
Institutionalizes the Credit Surety Fund (CSF) program under which funds are pooled from cooperatives local government units state-owned banks and other contributors and the funds serve as collateral for bank loans applied for by micro small and medium enterprises
Philippine Competition Act (RA No 10667)
Puts in place an anti-trust authority ndash the Philippine Competition Commission (PCC) ndash which seeks to promote fair market competition and penalize anti-competitive market practices This is meant to strengthen consumer protection and to open up industries to more investments
Right-of-Way Act (RA No 10752)
Provides clear and standard guidelines for governmentrsquos acquisition of properties and right of way in order to facilitate implementation of public infrastructure projects This addresses bottlenecks in infrastructure projects caused by right-of-way problems
Department of Information amp Communications Technology Act (RA No 10844)
Puts in place a government agency that will seek improvement in the delivery of information technology and telecommunication services in the country The agency is called the Department of Information amp Communications Technology
Amendments to the Charter of Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (RA No 10846)
Strengthens the PDIC and allows for streamlined procedures in liquidation of banks thereby ensuring faster recovery of assets of creditors of closed banks and faster payment of deposit insurance to depositors
Customs Modernization and Tariff Act (RA No 10863)
Modernizes the way the Bureau of Customs facilitates importation thereby hastening the release of shipments from customs ports
With the economic achievements of the Philippines over the past six years the Aquino administration indeed is turning over a much stronger Philippine economy to the incoming Duterte Administration
Along this line outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said ldquoWe are pleased to be turning over a strong and stable economy onto the next administration We have achieved significant socioeconomic progress over the last five years with the return of political and economic stability which we hope the incoming administration will build onrdquo
5
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
PH posts fastest Q1 growth in AsPac on back of investment surgeTHE PHILIPPINES again beat most of its neighbors in terms of economic growth with its gross domestic product (GDP) expanding by 69 percent in the first quarter Among the growth drivers during the period was spike in investments indicative of growing confidence of the business sector on the economy
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that fixed capital grew year-on-year by 256 percent in the first quarter accelerating from 242 percent in the same period of 2015
Moreover construction activities of the private sector accelerated to 71 percent from only 11 percent over the same period The Philippinesrsquo growth in the first quarter was the fastest in Asia Pacific and outpaced that of Chinarsquos 67 percent Vietnamrsquos 55 percent Indonesiarsquos 49 percent and Malaysiarsquos 42 percent
Outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said investments in the first three months of 2016 also would likely drive the countryrsquos economic output in the remainder of the year
ldquoThis robust performance of the economy increases the likelihood of achieving the official GDP growth projection of 68-78 percent for full year 2016rdquo the countryrsquos outgoing chief economist said in a press conference held May 19 Meantime the Philippines is expected by many to sustain robust economic growth throughout the year and to remain as one of the fastest growing economies in the region Below is a compilation of 2016 economic growth projections for the Philippines
OUTGOING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY EMMANUEL ESGUERRA
World Bank 64 HSBC 58
International Monetary Fund 60 Standard Chartered 64
Asian Development Bank 60 Citigroup 63
Fitch Ratings 59 Goldman Sachs 60
Moodyrsquos Investors Service 66 JP Morgan 58
Standard amp Poorrsquos 60 Nomura 65
2016 GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE PHILIPPINES ()
6
NEWS
20152016 GDP Growth Rate () of Select Asian Countries
1Q2015 FY2015 1Q2016
Philippines 50 59 69
India 75 75 69
China 70 69 67
Vietnam 61 67 55
Malaysia 56 50 42
Indonesia 47 48 49
Thailand 30 28 32
Korea 25 25 27
Singapore 26 20 18
Taiwan 40 09 -08
Sources Bloomberg government websites Indiarsquos fiscal year begins in April and ends in March
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
FINANCIAL MARKETS warmly welcomed the relatively peaceful conduct of elections held May 9 as this backed hopes of a smooth transition of the countryrsquos leadership from the Aquino to the Duterte administration
Euben Paracuelles executive director and economist at Nomura Securities Co Ltd described the conduct of the latest elections in the Philippines as commendable
ldquoI think it is quite commendable that the election process was orderly and peaceful with a relatively high voter turnout This likely cemented the credibility of the outcome and the strong margin of victory by President-elect [Rodrigo] Duterte as suggested by the rally in local markets right after the elections despite earlier concerns about the prospect of a Duterte presidency in the last few weeks of the campaignrdquo
Following a wait-and-see-stance of market players in the run-up to the national elections the Philippine peso rose intraday by 085 percent to close at 4672 against the US dollar on May 10 and appreciated further intraday by 038 percent to close at 4654 against the greenback on May 11
On the last trading day of May the local currency closed at 46755 against the US dollar Although weaker year-on-year by 464 percent the Philippine peso was still among the strongest-performing Asian currencies during this period
Meantime the local stock market likewise cheered the way the elections proceeded The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) jumped by 262 percent (intraday) on May 10 to close back to the 7000 territory at 717488 Then PSEi rose further by 309 percent on May 11 to close at 739652
The bond market likewise cheered along with the other markets Spread for the Philippine 10-year Treasury bonds narrowed to 8362 basis points over comparable US Treasuries on May 10 from 9408 basis points recorded on May 6 (the last trading day before the elections) Spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds tightened further to 8320 basis points on May 11
As of May 31 spread on the Philippine 10-year bonds settled at 6789 basis points This kept the Philippinesrsquo debt cheaper than that of many neighboring economies
Comparing indicators of country risks for peer Southeast Asian Countries over the same period the 5 year CDS prices was at 11233 basis points for the Philippines whereas this indicator stood 18684 basis points for Indonesia 12301 basis points for Thailand and 15751 basis points for Malaysia
Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia said the relatively peaceful elections showed that the Philippines is poised to remain stable despite leadership transition
ldquoThe overall smooth election without any radical temper or demonstration shows a good sign of stability which is very important to guarantee a sustainable economic growthrdquo Fajar said
Fajar opined that among the presidential candidates Rodrigo Duterte was not the financial market favorite but she added that pronouncements made by Duterte to keep the sound economic policies of the previous administration was comforting for investors
President Aquino will step down on June 30 the day incoming President Rodrigo Duterte will be inaugurated as the Philippinesrsquo new chief executive
Over the past six years of the Aquino administration the Philippines became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and the world and earned the previously elusive investment grade sovereign credit ratings
However recent developments in the United Kingdom particularly the result of a referendum favoring an exit from the European Union have caused new market jitters across the globe
The Philippines nonetheless is expected to be more resilient to this external shock compared with other emerging markets given its strong macroeconomic fundamentals
ldquoDespite this knee-jerk reaction the economy stands on solid footing given its strong macroeconomic fundamentalsrdquo outgoing Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel Esguerra said
Philippine peso stocks bonds improve as financial markets welcome peaceful elections
7
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Incoming Duterte administration presents economic team FOLLOWING the relatively peaceful elections held May 9 the incoming Duterte administration announced the names of individuals who will head the various agencies of government from 2016 ndash 2022 including those forming the economic cluster
Given the encouraging performance of the Philippine economy over the past six years incoming President Rodrigo Duterte said sound economic policies that have proven to work well for the country will be maintained while additional reforms will be implemented to help pull more people out of poverty as the economy grows
Below is the list of people forming the incoming Duterte administrationrsquos economic team
Agency Appointee Profile
Department of Finance Carlos
Dominguez
Former Agriculture Secretary under Pres Corazon Aquino former President of Philippine Airlines former Chairman of Planters Bank and member of the board of RCBC Capital Corp
Bureau of Internal Revenue
Cesar Dulay Lawyer former Commissioner of the Integrated Bar of the Philippines
Bureau of Customs Nicanor Faeldon Former Marine Captain
National Economic and Development Authority
Dr Ernesto PerniaUniversity of the Philippines Economics Professor Emeritus former ADB Lead Economist
Department of Budget Management
Dr Benjamin Diokno
Budget Secretary under Pres Joseph Estrada current Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics
Department of Trade and Industry
Ramon LopezVice President of RFM Corporation Executive Director of Go Nego-syo a non-stock non-profit organization that seeks to promote entrepreneurship in the country
Department of Energy Alfonso CusiFormer Manila International Airport Authority chief and Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
Department of Transportation
Arthur TugadeFormer President and CEO of Clark Development Corporation (an economic zone north of Manila and formerly a US Military Air Base) and founder of Perryrsquos Holding Corp
Department of Public Works and Highways
Mark VillarFormer Congressman lone district of Las Pintildeas City Metro Manila and served in family-owned businessesmdashas President of Crown Asia Corp and Managing Director of Vista Land and Lifescapes Inc
Department of Agriculture
Emmanuel Pintildeol Former Governor and Vice Governor of North Cotabato Mindanao credited for bringing down poverty incidence in his province to 256 in 2009 from 416 in 2000
Department of TourismWanda
Corazon TeoFormer President of the National Association of Independent Travel Agencies the biggest travel association in the Philippines
Department of Information and Communications Technology
Rodolfo SalalimaFormer Chief Legal Counsel of telecommunication firm Globe Tele-com
Department of Labor and Employment
Silvestre Bello III Human rights lawyer former Justice Secretary and Solicitor General
8
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
A 10-Point agenda to sustain and further enhance the quality of economic growth of the Philippines have been announced
At the lsquoSulong Pilipinasrsquo event a consultation by the incoming economic officials of the Duterte administration with the business community held in Davao from June 21 ndash 22 the officials led by incoming Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez presented the following socio-economic development agenda of the Duterte administration
10-point economic agenda of new admin bared
Incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the 10-point agenda the Duterte aministration will strive to make the Philippinesrsquo economic growth one that truly lifts people out of poverty
Meantime in the same press conference incoming Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said that with the help of the 10-point agenda the Philippines is poised to continue growing by a robust pace and in a manner that is more inclusive He projected that the Philippines will post a 65-percent GDP growth this year and register even higher growth rates in the 7-percent territory within the medium term
INCOMING SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNING SECRETARY ERNESTO PERNIA Continue and maintain current macroeconomic policies including fiscal monetary and the
trade policies Institute progressive tax reform and more effective tax collection indexing taxes to inflation A tax reform package will be submitted to Congress by September 2016
Increase competitiveness and the ease of doing business This effort will draw upon successful models used to attract business to local cities (eg Davao) and pursue the relaxation of the Constitutional restrictions on foreign ownership except as regards land ownership in order to attract foreign direct investments
Accelerate annual infrastructure spending to account for 5 of GDP with Public-Private Partnerships playing a key role
Promote rural and value chain development toward increasing agricultural and rural enterprise productivity and rural tourism
Ensure security of land tenure to encourage investments and address bottlenecks in land management and titling agencies
Invest in human capital development including health and education systems and match skills and training to meet the demand of businesses and the private sector
Promote Science technology and the creative arts to enhance innovation and creative capacity toward self-sustaining inclusive development
Improve social protection programs including the governmentrsquos Conditional Cash Transfer program to protect the poor against instability and economic shocks
Strengthen implementation of the Responsible Parenthood and Reproductive Health Law to enable especially the poor couples to make informed choices on financial and family planning
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte and Vice President-elect Leni Robredo took their oath of office on June 30 2016
Former Davao City Mayor Duterte is credited for helping Davao become one of the most progressive cities in the country outside Metro Manila owing to his policies that focused on peace and order as well as investment attraction
Former Congresswoman Robredo is a lawyer and a social activist known for her policy thrusts of participatory governance and government transparency
Meantime the Board of Canvassers have proclaimed the countryrsquos 12 new Senators who will have a term of six years ending 2022 These senators will be joining the existing 12 senators whose six-year terms are ending in 2019
Below is the complete senatorial list together with their terms of office
10
Philippines inaugurates Duterte as President Robredo as Vice President
INCOMING VICE PRESIDENT LENI ROBREDO
INCOMING PRESIDENT RODRIGO DUTERTE
Senator End of Term
Franklin Drilon 2022
Joel Villanueva 2022
Vicente Sotto III 2022
Panfilo Lacson 2022
Richard Gordon 2022
Juan Miguel Zubiri 2022
Manny Pacquiao 2022
Francis Pangilinan 2022
Risa Hontiveros 2022
Sherwin Gatchalian 2022
Ralph Recto 2022
Leila de Lima 2022
Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay 2019
Joseph Victor Ejercito 2019
Gregorio Honasan 2019
Loren Legarda 2019
Mary Grace Poe-Llamanzares 2019
Aquilino Pimentel III 2019
Antonio Trillanes 2019
Cynthia Villar 2019
Francis Joseph Escudero 2019
Alan Peter Cayetano 2019
Juan Edgardo Angara 2019
Paolo Benigno Aquino IV 2019
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
BSP implements interest rate corridor (IRC) systemNew system seen to further enhance monetary policy
THE BANGKO Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) implemented the interest rate corridor system on June 3 in a move meant to further enhance effectiveness of monetary policy in the country
With the implementation of the IRC system the BSP reduced the key policy rate (the overnight reverse repurchase rate) to 30 percent from the previous 40 percent and slashed the overnight repurchase rate to 35 percent from the previous 60 The rate for the overnight deposit facility (special deposit account) was kept at 25 percent
Moreover under the new system the BSP introduced 7-day and 28-day term deposit facilities which serve as additional tools for the BSP to mop up excess liquidity in the economy The interest rates on the term deposit facilities will be based on results of weekly auctions although these rates are expected to be higher than the SDA rate and lower than the repurchase rate
With the IRC in place the BSP effectively narrows the ldquocorridorrdquo around the key policy rate This is because the difference between the ceiling of 35 percent (the repurchase rate) and the floor of 25 percent (the overnight deposit rate) has been slashed to just 100 basis points Previously the gap between the highest and the lowest interest rates from the BSPrsquos liquidity facilities was 350 basis points
The BSP explained that a narrower ldquocorridorrdquo will improve the ability of adjustments in the key policy rate to influence movements of market interest rates In turn the BSP will have a better handle at managing liquidity within the economy
BSP Governor Amando M Tetangco Jr said that the primary aim of the adoption of the IRC is to improve the transmission of monetary policy
ldquoBy helping ensure that money market rates move within a reasonably close range around the BSPrsquos policy rate the IRC helps to enhance the link between the stance of BSP monetary policy and financial markets and thereby impact the real economyrdquo Tetangco said
BSP GOVERNOR AMANDO M TETANGCO JR
11
Ceiling (Lending Facility Rate)
Stylized Interest Rate Corridor
CB Policy RateMoney Market Rate
Floor (Deposit Facility Rate)
Period
Inte
rest
Rat
e
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
REFORMS
IMPLEMENTATION of public infrastructure projects is expected to be faster following the enactment of the Right of Way Act
The law or Republic Act No 10752 spells out standard procedures on how the government should secure locations and right of way for purposes of implementing public infrastructure projects
Clear and legislation-backed procedures will help government more easily address bottlenecks major of which are right-of-way issues in implementation of infrastructure projects
According to the law the government should enter into a negotiated sale with a property owner in case a private property is needed to fulfill an infrastructure plan
The government is also required to pay just compensation to the owner based on fair market value
For properties occupied by informal settlers the government should coordinate with concerned local government units and secure a relocation site for them
Outgoing Secretary Rogelio Singson of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) said the landmark law will significantly help in further accelerating implementation of infrastructure projects in the country
Since 2010 2891917 kilometers of national roads have been constructed paved and rehabilitated
ldquoNevertheless there remains a significant room for more public infrastructure projects given the continually rising economic activities in the country With RA No 10752 in place the next administration will be in a better position to farther accelerating infrastructure developmentrdquo he said
The national governmentrsquos budget allocation for infrastructure rose from a mere P1650 billion or 18 percent of GDP in 2010 to P7596 billion or 51 percent of GDP this year
Link to Right-of-way Act or Republic Act 10752 httpwwwgovph20160307republic-act-no-10752
OUTGOING DPWH SECRETARY ROGELIO SINGSON
lsquoRight of Wayrsquo law landmark reform to fast-track public infra projects
PHrsquos new anti-trust authority goes full swingIRR released as agency concludes public consultations
THE PHILIPPINE Competition Commission (PCC) the countryrsquos newly created anti-trust authority has gone full swing in the delivery of its mandate of instilling fair market practices across industries
This after the PCC issued on June 3 the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Philippine Competition Act (PCA) RA No 10667 The approved version of the IRR was officially issued following a
series of public consultations on the IRR organized by the PCC and held in Cebu Davao and Manila in May
ldquoThe release of the approved version of the IRR this month allows the PCC to fully implement the provisions of the Philippine Competition Actrdquo PCC Chairman Arsenio Balisacan said
ldquoWith the Philippine Competition Act businesses in the country are no longer simply encouraged but are now required to operate in a manner that observes fair market competition We expect the law to translate into significant benefits for consumers for industries and for the economy in generalrdquo he said
Enacted last year the law seeks to promote fair market practices and to penalize anti-competitive actions The creation in February of the PCC which is tasked to enforce the provisions of the law is also embodied in the Philippine Competition Act
Prohibited acts under the law include engaging in cartels abuse of dominant position and entering into anti-competitive agreements which may include market-sharing deals and bid rigging among others
ldquoAbuse of dominant positionrdquo refers to an anti-competitive act committed by a big industry player to maintain or increase its market share Example is when a dominant player temporarily reduces price to levels below cost in order to force competitors out of business
By promoting competition the law on one hand is expected to provide more options for consumers and protect them against unscrupulous acts of sellers
On the other hand the law is also expected to open industries to even more investments and to better support the development of micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)
As such the law complements the goal of sustaining robust economic growth and of making growth more inclusive
Link to Philippine Competition Act or Republic Act 10667 httpwwwgovph20150721republic-act-no-10667
PCC CHAIR ARSENIO BALISACAN
12
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
New customs modernization law sets PH customs procedures at par with international standards OUTGOING PRESIDENT Benigno Aquino III signed into law the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act RA No 10863 which is expected to address smuggling head on and to significantly enhance trade facilitation in the country ldquoPresident Aquinorsquos signing of CMTA into law has set the Bureau of Customs (BOC) on an even faster pace of reform Embracing technology and updating regulatory frameworks reduce opportunities for corruption and streamline client experience with the BOCrdquo outgoing Finance Secretary Cesar V Purisima said
ldquoBetter institutions deliver better outcomes We look forward to a stronger more efficient BOC aiding our bid for trade liberalization and competitivenessrdquo Purisima added The law signed on 30 May 2016 mandates modernization of systems in the Bureau of Customs In particular it requires electronic and simplified processing of all documents and forms as well as streamlined methods of valuation of goods
This effectively sets the BOCrsquos systems at par with international standards Also the law rationalizes the way the BOC imposes duties
In particular it updates the de minimis value ndash the minimum cost of items needed to formally go through customs procedures and be subject to taxes and duties ndash from P10 to P10000 It also raised the tax-exemption ceiling for packages sent home by overseas Filipino workers from P10000 to P150000 With RA No 10863 which amends the 38-year-old Tariff and Customs Code the BOC is expected to more speedily facilitate the release of shipments from the countryrsquos ports Faster processing of shipments in customs ports in turn bodes well for operations of import- and export-oriented enterprises in the country Meantime with electronic processing face-to-face interaction between customs employees and stakeholders are minimized if not totally eliminated thereby substantially curbing opportunities for corruption The Department of Finance is in the process of drafting the implementing rules and regulations (IRR) of the Customs Modernization and Tariff Act The law adds to the string of game-changing legislation enacted during the Aquino administration Link to Customs Modernization and Tariff Act or Republic Act 10863 httpwwwgovph20160530republic-act-no-10863
OUTGOING FINANCE SECRETARY CESAR V PURISIMA
13
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Deposit insurerrsquos charter strengthened further Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III signed into law the bill enhancing the process of liquidation of banks ordered closed and strengthening the capacity of the countryrsquos deposit insurer to better protect depositors and creditors of failed banks
Under Republic Act No 10846 which effectively amends the charter of the Philippine Deposit Insurance Corp (PDIC) the deposit insurer now has authority to proceed directly with the process of liquidating assets of banks ordered closed by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
The law does away with the 90-day ldquoreceivership periodrdquo which previously prevented liquidation of banks within 90 days upon closure
The benefit of this is that dissipation of assets is prevented and that PDIC is able to immediately assign encumbered assets of a closed bank to its creditors thereby assuring better recovery rate for the creditors
Moreover the law allows PDIC to pay insured deposits without netting out depositorsrsquo loan obligations with the closed bank In addition depositors are paid deposit insurance based on evidence of deposit and not solely on bank records
The law likewise authorizes PDIC to remove deposit insurance of banks found to be engaged in unsafe and unsound banking practice
PDIC President Cristina Que Orbeta said in a statement ldquoThe amendments to the deposit insurance law will ultimately redound to the benefit of the depositing publicrdquo
Link to new PDIC law or Republic Act 10846 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10846
PDIC PRESIDENT CRISTINA QUE ORBETA
Law creating Dept of Information amp Communications Technology (DICT) adds to string of game-changing reforms in PH Outgoing President Benigno Aquino III recently signed into law the bill creating the Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) which adds to the string of game-changing reforms implemented to ensure sustainability of the countryrsquos economic gains
President-elect Rodrigo Duterte has recently appointed Rodolfo Salalima a former executive of Globe Telecom Inc as Secretary of the DICT
Republic Act No 10844 effectively transfers to the DICT the communications aspect of the services rendered by the existing Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) which shall be renamed Department of Transportation
With the DICT in place internet and telecommunications services rendered by the private sector are expected to be more closely regulated thereby resulting in benefits for consumers
Link to DICT Act of 2015 or Republic Act 10844 httpwwwgovph20160523republic-act-no-10844
14
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Investor Relations Updates
15
THE PHILIPPINES is expected to keep if not improve further its investment grade sovereign credit ratings over the medium term even as the country is headed for a leadership change
This was the message delivered by BSP Deputy Governor Diwa Guinigundo to executives from Goldman Sachs and its corporate clients mostly fund managers who visited Manila on 1 June 2016 for an investor tour
In an investor tour investment banks bring their clients in select countries to meet with economic officials to learn more about economic developments in the said countries Information gathered serve as inputs for any potential investment decision making in the future
In its investor tour on June 1 meetings for which were arranged by the Investor Relations Office (IRO) Goldman Sachs and its clients met with officials from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and the Department of Finance
ldquoThe Philippines is in an interesting period [given the political leadership transition] but rest assured that we do not intend to reverse the gains we achieved so far in relation to credit ratingsrdquo Guinigundo told the foreign visitors during the meeting
Guinigundo said strong macroeconomic fundamentals and positive structural reforms implemented over the years will help the Philippines maintain its creditworthiness
The BSP official likewise presented the BSPrsquos favorable outlook on inflation and details of the interest rate corridor (IRC) system which has taken effect on June 3 With the IRC system under which the BSP adjusted rates on its existing liquidity facilities and under which it created additional deposit facilities the central bank is expected to further enhance its ability to manage liquidity in the economy
Finance Undersecretary Gil Beltran who also met with the visiting executives presented the Philippine governmentrsquos latest fiscal performance and outlook
Beltran said the Philippines under the incoming Duterte administration has room to accelerate spending on infrastructure and other social services because of the governmentrsquos manageable budget deficit and debt burden The governmentrsquos budget deficit stood at 09 percent of GDP in 2015 below the official ceiling set at 2 percent of GDP
The general governmentrsquos debt as a percentage of GDP continued to fall to 363 percent in 2015 from 364 percent the previous year and 422 percent in 2010
Under the fiscal program for 2016 the government intends to keep the deficit ceiling at 2 percent of GDP and to sustain the drop in the debt-to-GDP ratio Beltran said the government can afford a significant pickup in spending this year without putting the governmentrsquos fiscal health at risk
After suffering from speculative credit ratings the Philippines finally earned minimum investment grade sovereign credit ratings from all major international debt watchdogs in 2013 This was followed by additional credit rating upgrades in 2014 and 2015
Besides Goldman Sachs other institutions that visited andor brought clients to the Philippines in May and June for investor meetings were Nomura Securities Co Ltd PT RHB Securities Indonesia Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corp and Morgan Stanley
PHrsquos investment grade ratings lsquointactrsquo
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA GUINIGUNDO
BSP DEPUTY GOVERNOR DIWA ENGAGES EXECUTIVES FROM GOLDMAN SACHS AND ITS CLIENTS IN AN INVESTOR MEETING ARRANGED BY THE IRO
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581
Following the impressive 69-percent economic growth in the first quarter Nomura expects growth of the Philippines to accelerate in the second quarter to above 7 percent and to settle at an average of 65 percent for the full year to become one of the fastest growing in Asia
ldquoThis [2016 growth projection] is not all about election-related spending the quality of growth continues to improve with larger contributions from investment spending Whether this can continue beyond this year will depend in large part on the new administrationrsquos economic agenda Our baseline view remains that President-elect Dutertersquos policy approach will be pragmatic and he is unlikely to reverse the reform progress made in the last few years As a result we are optimistic that the medium term growth outlooks will stay solidrdquo Paracuelles said
Nomura is an Asia-headquartered financial services group with an integrated global network spanning over 30 countries By connecting markets East amp West Nomura services the needs of individuals institutions corporates and governments through its three business divisions Retail Asset Management and Wholesale (Global Markets and Investment Banking) Founded in 1925 the firm is built on a tradition of disciplined entrepreneurship serving clients with creative solutions and considered thought leadership
In the Philippines Nomura operates under two entities - Nomura Securities Philippines Inc which was established in 1999 and handles the companyrsquos wholesale business and BDO Nomura Securities Inc a retail broking joint venture with BDO Unibank Inc Nomura holds a 49-percent stake in this joint venture which was established in January 2016RHB Securities Indonesia expects the Philippines to maintain solid growth in 2016
ldquoThe Philippinesrsquo economy remains on track to sustain its growth trajectory in 2016 on the back of robust household consumption coupled with efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending and ample fiscal space to stimulate government spending As a whole the economy will likely continue to hold up and we envisage it to grow by 60 in 2016 compared with +58 in 2015rdquo said Rizki Fajar vice president and economist at PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Fajar also said the Philippines is expected to continue enjoying a manageable inflation environment and a relatively stable exchange rate
ldquoThe expected widening current account surplus in 2016 should provide an underlying support to the peso in 2016 Elsewhere inflation will likely remain subdued and manageable which in turn will not warrant additional stimulus from monetary policy and the policy rate will likely remain stable in 2016rdquo Fajar said
ldquoUnder the assumption of no sudden change in main policies we foresee the economy will continue to grow even higher as the private investment started to recoverrdquo she added
PT RHB Securities Indonesia was established in 1990 and was acquired by OSK Investment Bank Berhad in 2008 After OSK Investment Bank merged into RHB Investment Bank the company changed name into PT RHB OSK Securities Indonesia It is headquartered in Jakarta with over350 staffs across Indonesia The company provides a full array of financial services including equity brokerage fixed income corporate finance and advisory research and asset management
The Grouprsquos regional presence now spans eight countries including Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Hongkong Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Vietnam
What they say about The Philippines
Rizki FajarVice President and Economist PT RHB Securities Indonesia
Euben Paracuelles Executive Director Economist Nomura Securities Co Ltd
16
This is an official publication of the
Investor Relations Office (IRO) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
visit us at wwwiroph
email us at infoiroph
follow us on TwittercomEconomyPH
like us on facebookcomEconomyPH
Room 410 fourth floor 5-storey
building Bangko Sentral ng
Pilipinas FB Harrison corner Vito
Cruz Streets Malate Manila 1004
+63 2 303 1581