01-philiphine_climate trends april 2012

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PAGASA

International workshop on the digitization of Historical Climate Data , the new SACA&D Database and Climate Analysis in the ASEAN Region

April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASAPAGASA

Climate Trends in the Philippines

Presented by:Thelma A. Cinco

²

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April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia PAGASA

PAGASA-DOSTPAGASA-DOST

The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United Nations.

MISSION: To provide weather, flood, climate and

astronomical products and services to promote the people’s safety and well-being & contribute to national development

Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977

PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider

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NORTHERN LUZON

(Tuguegarao)

NORTHERN LUZON

(Tuguegarao)

MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro)

MINDANAO (Cagayan de Oro)

VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu)

VISAYAS (Mactan, Cebu)

NCR (Quezon City)NCR

(Quezon City)

SOUTHERN LUZON

(Legaspi)

SOUTHERN LUZON

(Legaspi)

5 Regional Centers

PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment

58 Synoptic stations 23 Agromet stations80 Climat/Rain stations69 AWS 10M wind mast76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI)75ARG381 total

6 Upper air stations10 Doppler radars (2 under construction)2 Marine buoys5 Telemetered major river basins3 Satellite receivers

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Highly Suceptable to Floodings and Inundation• Archipelago, composed of

low lying small islands

• 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas

• Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

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TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006

Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)

June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)TY Milenyo, Sept 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE

Feb 2006

Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms, Typhoons and very intense rainfallTyphoons and very intense rainfall

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How is global warming manifested in the

Philippines?

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Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010) Departures from 1971-2000 normal values

An increase of 0.65°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)

Philippines mean temperature

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Diffe

rence (�C

) fr

om

1971-2000)

Year

Annual mean temp

Smoothed series (5 year running mean)

Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST

Period Rate1981-2010 (last 30 yrs) - 0.0164 1951-2010 (60 years) - 0.0108

Years � C/year

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Rate of increase almost 3 times higher compared with the maximum temperature

Maximum & Minimum Temperature

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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency of days with maximum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Hot days).

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature above the 1961-1990 mean 99th percentile (Warm nights)

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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the PhilippinesPeriod: (1951 – 2008)

Trend in the frequency with maximum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentileCool Days

Trend in the frequency with minimum temperature below the 1961-1990 mean 1st percentile

Cold nights

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Classification of Tropical Cyclones

1. Tropical depression - maximum sustained winds is from 45 to 63 kph;

2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds is from 64 to 118 kph;

3. Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is greater than 118 kph.

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Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).

s. Tropical Cyclone Frequencyusing 1°x1° (1948-2010)

s.Visited by an average

19 to 20 Tropical cyclonesEVERY YEAR

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North PacificPeriod: (1948-2010)

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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines Period: 1948-2010

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Nu

mb

er

of T

rop

ical C

yclo

nes

Year

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PARPeriod: 1948-2010

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Five-year running mean

Linear (Five-year running mean)

y = -0.0223x + 20.124

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Nu

mb

er

of T

rop

ical C

yclo

nes

Year

Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PARPeriod: 1948-2010

Number of Tropical Cyclones

Five-year running mean

Linear (Five-year running mean)

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2006). Updating Tropical Cyclone climatology in the PAR., Phil. Met-Hydro Congress 2006.

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Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the PAR Period: 1951-2010

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

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Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the Philippines

*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.

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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above

9, 1987(10), 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Freq

uenc

y of

TC

Year

Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)Period: 1971-2010

Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs

Neutral yearEl Niño yearLa Niña year

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Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines Period: 1948-2010

17 13 9 1134 48

126 130111

7144 3610 6 9 18

30

46

80 6777

88

87

47

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Num

ber o

f Tro

pica

lCyc

lone

s

Number of Landfalling TC's

Number of non-Landfalling TC's

MonthlyMean 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.6 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.4

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Tropical cyclone statistics in PHDISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010

TC NAME Date of OccurrenceTotal damage in Billion PhP

TY_PEPENG (Parma) Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009 27.296722TY PEDRING SEP 24- 28, 2011 15.552000TY FRANK (Fengshen) Jun 18 – 23, 2008 13.500000TY JUAN (Megi) Oct16 – 21, 2010 11.500000TS_ONDOY (Ketsana) Sep 24 – 27, 2009 10.952198TY_RUPING NOV 8-14, 1990 10.846000

DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE Number of Casualties > 300

TC NAME Date of OccurrenceCasualti

es TS Uring * Nov 1-6, 1991 5101TS Sendong (Washi) * Dec 15-17, 2011 1268TY Nitang Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984 1029TY Trix Oct 17-23, 1952 995TY Amy Dec 6-11, 1951 991TY Rosing Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995 936

MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum Wind

(kph)Date of

Occurrence

TY Reming 320 (Virac) Nov 30, 2006TY Loleng 287 (Virac) Oct 21, 1998TY Anding 280 (Virac) Nov 27, 1981TY Sening 276 (Virac) Oct 13, 1970TY Wening 269 (Aparri) Oct 27, 1974TY Trining 269 (Masbate) Dec 15, 1987

MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC

TC NAMEMaximum 24-hour

rainfall (mm)Date of

Occurrence

TY Feria 1085.8 (Baguio) July 4, 2001TY Iliang 994.6(Baguio) Oct 14, 1998TY Trining 979.4 (Baguio) Oct 17, 1967TY Susang 781.4 (Baguio) Oct 11, 1974TY Trining 760.0 (Baguio) Oct 27, 1991

TY Ditang 730.3(Baguio) May 15, 1980

*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were characterized by flashfloods.

Increasing cost of Damage

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Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm

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Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)

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IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALLIMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL

REDRED colored years arecolored years are EL NINOEL NINO years, years, BLUEBLUE colored years are colored years are LA LA NINANINA years and years and BLACKBLACK colored years are colored years are NON_ENSONON_ENSO years years

Legend: Legend:

Severe drought Severe drought impactsimpacts

Drought Drought impacts with impacts with major lossesmajor losses

Moderate Moderate drought drought impactsimpacts

Near normal to Near normal to above normal above normal conditioncondition

Way above Way above normal normal conditioncondition

Potential for Potential for flood damageflood damage

Severe flood Severe flood damagedamage

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Monthly Mean Rainfall DistributionNeutral La NiñaEl Niño

Wetter in

the eastern

part

Wetter in

the

western

part

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Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 168.5 142.6 103.6

Neutral 84.8 64.5 60.2 35.6 70.0 135.8 136.1 94.5 112.7 152.7 148.2 120.7

EL NINO 43.0 24.2 13.9 17.8 50.2 103.1 122.3 122.2 104.1 136.8 109.1 83.4

LA NNA 114.9 80.8 66.4 91.9 125.6 164.6 134.0 137.2 177.9 206.6 214.4 136.2

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

Rain

fall A

mou

nt (m

m)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Dumaguete (Type III)


NORMAL 7100 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581.0 461.8 124.6 23.7

Neutral 16.1 14.6 40.3 99.9 354.4 459.6 777.1 907.4 639.6 258.1 162.6 20.1

El niño 10.2 6.6 16.1 46.4 265.2 489.41025.7 847.0 567.7 364.3 64.0 24.0

La Niña 13.6 26.6 45.4 126.8 373.8 460.9 476.4 819.1 537.2 603.2 157.8 37.8

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

Rain

fall A

mou

nt (m

m)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Baguio City(Type I)


NORMAL 7100 321.9 209.8 185.0 163.0 169.9 259.8 279.0 236.1 261.6 353.8 486.3 563.1

Neutral 285.2 187.2 191.7 142.4 184.2 248.4 251.2 252.4 283.5 375.9 426.4 422.0

El niño 245.4 119.3 122.2 105.4 126.9 223.2 284.8 252.3 252.5 226.2 420.1 419.4

La Niña 407.2 290.7 267.7 235.8 212.1 225.0 229.2 253.5 233.2 351.7 578.8 714.8

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

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700.0

800.0

Rainf

all Am

ount

(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Legazpi City Type II


NORMAL 7100 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181.0 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5

Neutral 135.3 123.5 99.6 134.1 184.1 182.4 171.3 164.0 161.0 169.1 153.7 124.1

El niño 87.0 67.2 45.4 80.7 203.2 220.9 155.2 155.3 171.7 182.0 133.2 79.3

La Niña 153.1 109.1 120.7 166.3 186.7 177.9 182.6 197.6 201.5 165.5 135.0 132.0

0.0

100.0

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700.0

800.0

Rain

fall A

mou

nt (m

m)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Davao City (Type IV)

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Climate Trends in Manila

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Manila

An increase of 2.21 °C from 1901-2010 (110 years)

y = 0.0201x + 26.513

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

19

01

19

06

19

11

19

16

19

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26

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31

19

36

19

49

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54

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64

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69

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74

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79

19

84

19

89

19

94

19

99

20

04

20

09

Me

an T

em

pe

ratu

re (

°C)

YEAR

Annual Mean Temperature (°C) Manila (1901 - 2010)

Annual Mean Temperature5-year moving averageLinear (5-year moving average)

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Manila

1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010

Manila 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

Temp

earu

tre°C

Comparison of the 30-years average of MeanTemperature for Manila

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Manila

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

18

65

18

70

18

75

18

80

18

85

18

90

18

95

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00

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55

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65

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85

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90

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95

20

00

20

05

20

10

Rai

nfa

ll A

mo

un

t (m

m)

Rainfall Anomaly in ManilaPeriod: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values)

Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)

5 yr moving ave

Linear (5 yr moving ave)

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Manila

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009

Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila

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NORMAL 7100 19.0 7.9 11.1 21.4 165.2 265.0 423.2 486.0 330.7 270.9 129.6 75.3

Nuetral 14.1 9.1 14.4 19.8 152.8 265.5 382.0 494.7 335.3 223.7 111.5 56.6

EL NINO 15.4 5.8 4.4 5.3 101.5 226.5 576.1 429.8 375.9 169.7 89.3 47.8

LA NNA 21.8 13.8 15.8 39.1 187.1 313.4 293.3 430.6 389.4 276.7 175.4 89.2

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

Rain

fall

Amou

nt (m

m)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila

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01-philiphine_climate trends april 2012

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