01 ntp development dr.tran.thuc part01 climate.change.in.vietnam

8/14/2019 01 NTP Development Dr.tran.Thuc Part01 Climate.change.in.Vietnam

1/17

CLIMATE CHANGE

AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM

CLIMATE CHANGE

AND IMPACTS IN VIET NAM


2/17

Viet Nam is considered as one of the most vulnerable

countries due to CC and sea level rise. If sea level rise of 1 m, Viet Nam will loose about 12% of

land, 23% of population will be affected.

Typhoons occur more frequently with higher intensity.

Temperature increases and change in rainfall pattern will

affect agriculture and water resources.


3/17

1 m

2 m

3 m

4 m

5 m

WB 2007

Impacts of sea level rise

Large percentage ofVietnams population and

economic activities are

located in these two river

deltas. 14% of Vietnampopulation would be

impacted by a 1m SLR. This

is the largest percentage of

impacted population among

all 84 countries. Vietnam

impacted population would

reach 35% with a 5m SLR.The impact of SLR on

Vietnams GDP and urban

extent follow the impact on

its population.


4/17

Inundation in Mekong River Delta

due to 1 m Sea Level Rise

Source: HMS


5/17

Annual average temperatureincreases about 0.10C per decade.In some summer months,temperature increases about 0.1-0.3oC per decade.

Source: Vietnam National communication

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2

1

3 4

O

C

Year

Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time

step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi

station.

Annual temperature

Climate Change in VietnamClimate Change in Vietnam

More heavy

rainfalls

causing severe

floods; Rainfall

decreases in

dry season

(Jul., Aug.) andincreases in

rainy season

(Sep. to Nov.).1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004

2

1

3 4

mm

Year

Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average(time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-

December rainfall at A Luoi station.

Rainfall of Aug.-Dec.


6/17

Typhoon trajectory moves southward

and typhoon season shifts to later

months of the year;


Cumulative tracks of tropical cyclones (19852005)

[Nicholls et al.., 2007]


7/17

High floods occur more frequently in the Central

and Southern Vietnam.

Drought happen every year in most regions of theDrought happen every year in most regions of thecountry.country.



8/17

ENSO has stronger effects

on weather regime and

climatic features in variousareas of Viet Nam;

Sea level rises from 2.5-3

cm per decade in the last

century.

Climate Change VietnamClimate Change Vietnam


9/17

Vulnerability of delta dwelling populations

[Source: Nicholls et al., 2007]

Impacts on Coastal ZoneImpacts on Coastal Zone


10/17

Impacts ofImpacts of

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Public

Health

Environ

ment

Tourism Energy

Forestry

Agriculture

Water

Respurses

Climate

Change


11/17

Impact on AgricultureImpact on Agriculture

Shift of planting boundary: By 2070s,tropical trees/ crops would be able to growat the altitude 100-550 meters higher andmove 100-200 km northwards compared to

present. Large areas in Mekong and Red River deltas

would be under salt water due to sea levelrise.

Yield of rice decreaseYield of rice decreaseby 10% for every 1by 10% for every 1ooCC

increase in growingincrease in growing

season minimumseason minimum

temperaturetemperature (IPCC AR4WG2TS, 2007)

Source: Vietnam

National

communication


12/17

Impacts on Water ResourcesImpacts on Water Resources

Instability in rainfall would causemore severe floods in rainy seasonand droughts in dry season.

Increase in frequency and intensity

of typhoons, storms would causehigh floods & inundation, flashfloods, landslide and erosion.

Increasing water shortage and

growing water demand threatenwater supply, water use conflicts.



13/17

Impacts on ForestryImpacts on Forestry

Decrease of mangrove forest,due to sea level rise.

Forest with drought standvarieties would increase due to

low soil moisture and high

evapotranspiration.

Biodiversity degradation:extinction of endangered

species;

Increasing risk of forest fire; Increase and wide spread ofplant pests and diseases.



14/17

Impacts on Aquaculture & FisheriesImpacts on Aquaculture & Fisheries

Sea level rise would reduce freshwater creatures in rivers &

estuaries, high temperature reduce high valuable sub-tropicalfishes;

Habitat loss for young creatures

due to mangrove decrease; Reducing sea products

productivity and commercialquality due to:

Migration of fishes;

Reduction of body weight.



15/17

Impacts on Coastal ZoneImpacts on Coastal Zone

Large areas of the Mekong, Red Riverdeltas and Central coastal zone wouldbe inundated due to sea level rise.

Coastal & estuarine wetlands wouldbe affected due to frequent floods,severe drought & salinity (Ca Mau,Ho Chi Minh City, Vung Tau and

Nam Dinh) Livelihood of coastal population will

be affected by more severe storms,

flood, drought and sea level rise.Projections for a 1 m sea level rise: 15,000-

20,000 km2 of Mekong River delta flooded,

affecting 3.5 to 5 million people, respectively.IPCC AR4, 2007


16/17

Impacts on Energy, TransportationImpacts on Energy, Transportation

Oil, gas platforms would beaffected by typhoons, storms;

Seaports and roads designedbasing on historical sea levelwould be affected.

Less energy generation due to drought ;

Unstable flow regimes may lead to conflict in waterregulation at hydropower stations. More energy consumption for due to high temperature and

humidity.Source: Vietnam National communication


17/17

Impacts on Human Health

Negative Impact Positive

Impact

Very high confidence

Malaria: contraction and expansion,

changes in transmission season

High confidence

Increase in malnutrition

Increase in the number of people suffering

from deaths, disease and injuries fromextreme weather events

Increase in the frequency of cardio-respiratory

diseases from changes in air quality

Change in the range of infectious disease vector

Reduction of cold-related deaths

Medium confidence

Increase in the burden of diarrheal diseases

01 ntp development dr.tran.thuc part01 climate.change.in.vietnam

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