0 nestor osteuropa fonds access to the eastern european opportunities (as of 31 jan, 2006)
TRANSCRIPT
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NESTOR Osteuropa FondsAccess to the
Eastern European Opportunities
(as of 31 Jan, 2006)
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+158,0%
+210,8%
+98,5%
+160,9%
-50%
+0%
+50%
+100%
+150%
+200%
+250%
MSCI EM Eastern Europe NESTOR Osteuropa (best fund) Worst fund Median fund
Performance
Performance NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds
Source: S&P Micropal Data as of 31 Dec 2005
WARBURG INVEST takes overmanagement of the fund
+69.5 %+220.5 %+282.1 %+170.8 %+18.5 %
1 year:3 years:5 years:since launch:since launch p.a.:
+11.2 %+7.3 %
+43.1 %+32.1 %+69.5 %
2001:2002:2003:2004:2005:
Rankings
A
CHART: Performance NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds, benchmark & competitors
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Portfolio (31.12.2005)
Country allocation
Russia =61,20 %
Poland =11,00 %
Caspian Region = 6,53 %
Hungary = 4,47 %
Czech Republic = 2,38 %
Others =4,67 %
Cash = 9,75 %
Sector allocation
Oil & Gas =39,10 %
Metals =12,82 %
Telecoms = 9,92 %
Banks =11,82 %
Utilities = 5,84 %
Media = 3,71 %
Others =16,79 %
-6
4
14
24
34
44
5464
74
84
94
104
114
124
134
May 2002 Dec. 2002 Dec. 2003 Dec. 2004 Dec. 2005
Fundvolume, Mio. EUR
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Why Eastern Europe? – Ideas
„New“ Russia
The value system of people is changing
Development process and momentum of change is being underestimated
by the west
There are a lot undiscovered opportunities
Europe is going East
Growth potential is higher than in Western Europe
Process is well known and understood
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Fund Outlook
Priorities
Russia
Commodities
Local Gazprom Shares via a special vehicle
Utilities
Mobile telephone companies
Poland
Western Companies with main businesses in Eastern Europe
Oil companies in Caspian region
New potential EU Members: Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine
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Growth and Perspectives
Russia finds itself in a growth trend
Big Central European countries grow less dynamically, with problems in state finance
Country GDP, in %Current account,
in % of GDP
Budget,
in % of GDP
01 02 03 04F 05F 01 02 03 04F 05F 01 02 03 04F 05F
Russia 5.0 4.3 7.3 7.0 6.0 11.0 8.6 9.4 9.9 7.5 2.9 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.0
Poland 0.9 1.4 3.5 5.5 5.5 -3.9 -3.5 -1.6 -3.1 -1.7 -5.3 -5.1 -5.3 -7.1 -6.0
Hungary 3.8 3.3 2.7 3.6 3.8 -2.1 -4.0 -6.5 -5.2 -8.4 -3.4 -9.6 -5.5 -4.7 -3.4
Czech Republic
3.1 2.0 2.8 3.8 3.4 -5.8 -6.4 -5.7 -5.7 -6.0 -5.1 -6.7 -7.9 -8.1 -4.9
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Russia: More promising than ever
Basic background information:
Improving political stability
Democratisation process should sustain, even though the
way is not easy
Structural reforms (not dependent on Yukos affair)
Basic economic information:
Russia has investment grade from all three major
agencies
Positive trend in capital flows after all
Corporate governance is improving
„Yukos“ failure is the „one-off“
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Poland: Taking off
Basic background information:
EU membership is a stabilising factor
Political changes are not harming economic situation
Structural reforms are being continued
Basic economic information:
Polish companies have been restructured during the economic slowdown
Monetary policy is not an obstacle anymore for economic development
Competitive advantage through cheaper but nevertheless well educates
labour force
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Caspian Region: Oil „Bonanza“
Basic background information:
No „Yukos-like“ oligarchy
Stable and investor friendly legislation in Kazakhstan
The political system is authoritarian and might stay so
Western Countries and especially USA have big political and
economic interests in the region
Basic economic information:
Region holds 5 % of world oil and gas reserves
Low costs and high profit margins
Transportation problems will be solved in the near future
The majority of western fund managers are not familiar with the region
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Approach
Portfolio Approach
Benchmark: MSCI EM Eastern Europe (EUR)
Combination of «Top Down» and «Bottom Up» approachies
No hesitation to go into cash in case of negative market development
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Approach
Top Down Approach: countries
Political situation: sources of disturbance / social peace / ethnic peace
Economic development, business climate
GDP Growth and industrial production
Current account
Fiscal discipline
Indebtedness
Interest rates
Inflation / money supply / currency reserves / capital flows
Development of real income / trends of labor market
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Approach
Bottom up: Stock Selection
Market capitalization 200 Mio. EUR
Shareholder-Value-Orientation Leading position in it‘s sector
Financials better than in average in the sector
„Western-minded“ and well trained management
Strategical use of information technology
Accounting under western standards
Audited by well known western companies
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Valuation
P/E
28.02.2005
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Market Capitalization (28 Feb, 2005)
0
50
100
150
200
250B
illio
n U
SD
Index 227 102 59 41 31 112
Russia Turkey PolandCzech
RepublicHungary Nestlé
Peculiarities
Russia – 58 % in oil shares
Poland – 50 % in banking and telecom shares
Czech Republic – 85 % in 6 stocks
Hungary – 90 % in 4 stocks
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Risk and Return
Admixture of Eastern European stocks to international stock portfolio30.06.1995 - 30.06.2005, in €
MSCI USA
MSCI Japan
MSCI Germany
MSCI Europe
MSCI World
MSCI Russia
MSCI Poland
MSCI Hungary
MSCI Czech Repulic
MSCI Eastern Europe70% Europe, 20% USA,
10% Japan
-5%
+0%
+5%
+10%
+15%
+20%
+25%
+30%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Risk p.a.
Ret
urn
p.a
.
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Fund outlook
Features of the fund worth mentioning
Active management, focused portfolio
Fund manager from the region
Deep understanding of specific regional risk profile of those markets
Investment in stocks out of benchmark universe many of those not monitored by most of our competitors
Currency hedging (EUR/USD)
NESTOR Osteuropa Benchmark MSCI EM EE
Number of stocks 54 54
Bluechips 50 % 80 %
Number of stocks out of benchmark universe
34 -
Stand: 31.12.2005
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The Fund manager
Mr. Gegham Ananyan WARBURG INVEST KAG since 01.04.2005
Oct 2004 – Feb 2005 Bankworld Inc. USA USAID Securities Market Strengthening Activity in
Armenia Securities Market Expert 2002
Jan – Sep 2004 IBM Business Consulting ServicesUSAID Capital Market Development Project in Armenia
Consultant
June 1998 – Dec 2003 Central Bank of ArmeniaFinancial Market Operations Department
Head of Department – Treasurer
Jan – May 1998 HSBC London, UKTreasurySecondment
July 1995 – Oct 1997 Central Bank of ArmeniaState Reserves Management Division
Head of Division
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The Fundmanager
Key skills and achievements
Key fields: reserves managements, capital markets, macroeconomics
Analytical, languages, managerial, teamwork, communication skills and contacts
Became Head of State Reserves Management Division of the Central Bank of Armenia in 1 year after graduation
A pioneer of state foreign exchange reserves management in Armenia (Author of the number of articles on reserve management)
Became Head of Financial Market Operations Department-Treasurer of the Central Bank in 4 years after graduation
Member of the Committee for Developing of Armenian Precious Metals Industry and Gold Market under the Prime Minister of Armenia
Made headed Committee for conducting primary auctions of Government Securities
As a key negotiator of the Central Bank and the Government of Armenia, was responsible for the relations with the international private financial institutions
Seconded for work in the Capital and Emerging Markets desks of the global international bank in London
Trainings, including „on-the-job“ in the leading world financial institutions: Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citibank, HSBC, Commerzbank, Credit Suisse First Boston, Chase
Manhattan, Bundesbank, Bank England, De Nederlandsche Bank, World Bank, IMF
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Investment focus:
Investment company:
Fund manager:x
ISIN Code:
Fund currency:
Initial issue:
End of commercial year:
Dividend policy:
Calculation of the Net Asset Value:
Registered for sale in:
Eastern- and South Eastern European equities
NESTOR Investment Management S.A., Luxembourg
Gegham ANANYAN,Warburg Invest KAG mbH, Frankfurt/Main
LU0108457267
Euro
21 February, 2000
June, 30
thesaurierend
täglich
Germany, Luxembourg, Austria
Die Fondsdaten
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Depository bank:
Partner for institutional investors:
Settlement:
KassenvereinClearstream
Fundsettle
Cut-off time:
Partner for any sales matters:
M.M.Warburg & CO Luxembourg S.A.
Daniela Schiffels, Sylvia Bono Tel: +352 45 45-279Fax: +352 42 45 45-405E-Mail: [email protected]
Delivery against paymentM.M.Warburg & CO Luxembourg S.A.30493086414878
on every valuation day in Luxembourg at the latestby 16 p.m.; application shall be dealt with at thefollowing valuation day
NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs-GmbHTel: 0800/063 78 67E-Mail: [email protected]
Die Fondsdaten
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NESTOR Investment Management S.A.
2, Place Dargent, L-1413 Luxembourg
Tel. + 352/42 70 42 Fax: +352/42 74 54
E-Mail: [email protected]
NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs-GmbH
Ottostraße 5, D-80333 München
Tel. 089/54 59 03-80 Fax: 089/54 59 03-85
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.nestor-fonds.de
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Rechtlicher Hinweis
Diese Präsentation wurde von der NESTOR Investment Management S.A., Luxemburg publiziert und stellt kein Angebot zum Kauf von Anteilen und keine Aufforderung zur Abgabe eines Angebotes zum Kauf von Anteilen der NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds dar. Die bisherige Wertentwicklung ist keine Garantie für zukünftige Ergebnisse. Der Anteilerwerb erfolgt ausschließlich auf der Grundlage des gültigen Verkaufsprospektes in Verbindung mit dem letzten Jahresbericht des Fonds und, wenn dessen Stichtag länger als 8 Monate zurückliegt, zusätzlich mit dem letzten Halbjahresbericht. Alle Verkaufsunterlagen sind kostenlos am Sitz der Verwaltungsgesellschaft sowie bei allen Zahl- und Informationsstellen erhältlich (NESTOR Investment Management S.A. oder M.M.Warburg Bank Luxembourg S.A., beide 2, Place Dargent, L-1413 Luxembourg oder NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs-GmbH, Ottostraße 5, D-80333 München).
Wertpapieranlagen besitzen nicht nur die Möglichkeit zur Wertsteigerung des eingesetzten Kapitals, sondern sind auch mit erheblichen Verlustrisiken behaftet. Dies trifft insbesondere auf Anlagen in Aktien und in davon abgeleitete Wertpapiere wie Optionsscheine zu, die Eigenkapital von Aktiengesellschaften und damit Risikokapital im ureigensten Sinne darstellen.
Die in dieser Ausarbeitung enthaltenen Informationen beruhen auf Aussagen des Investmentmanagers Warburg Invest KAG mbH, Frankfurt, die aus verlässlichen Quellen stammen und ggf. die persönliche Meinung des Managers wiedergeben. Sie erheben nicht den Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit und sind daher unverbindlich. Soweit in dieser Ausarbeitung Aussagen über Preise, Zinssätze oder sonstige Indikationen getroffen werden, beziehen sich diese ausschließlich auf den Zeitpunkt der Erstellung der Ausarbeitung und enthalten keine Aussage über die zukünftige Entwicklung, insbesondere nicht hinsichtlich zukünftiger Gewinne oder Verluste.
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