- woc 1 sg 1.1 18 october 2007 teheran iran

93
1 INTERNATIONAL GAS UNION 3rd WOC 1 Committee Meeting 18th October 2007, National Iranian Gas Company, Tehran, IRAN SG 1.1 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

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INTERNATIONAL GAS UNION 3rd WOC 1 Committee Meeting 18th October 2007, National Iranian Gas Company, Tehran, IRAN SG 1.1. 1. - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran. SG 1.1 Main topics. Mature areas Deep offshore Arctic zones Gas monetization technologies. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

1

INTERNATIONAL GAS UNION3rd WOC 1 Committee Meeting

18th October 2007, National Iranian Gas Company,

Tehran, IRANSG 1.1

- WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Page 2: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

2 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

SG 1.1 Main topics

Mature areas

Deep offshore

Arctic zones

Gas monetization technologies

Page 3: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

3 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Target : involve the main operators in our work

Why do we need to involve them ? They have a real experience of their own history in these areas. They must have a view on the future of these areas.

How will we manage to involve them ? We need to identify these main operators We need to prepare the work so that they properly contribute to our work

Preliminary reviews (following slide) Have a good knowledge of the history (at least the recent history) of these areas Have reasonable ideas on the challenges met by the operators

Propose a way to get the information from the operators

Get the information

Page 4: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

4 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Preliminary review

History (or recent history) Recent production profile (since 2000)

Cumulative gas production since 2000 Growth, plateau or decline? Main fields.

Recent discovery events Discovered reserves : comparison with production (replacement or not) And comparison with past years : more or less discoveries New exploration ideas.

Recent fields start-ups Fields whose production began since 2000

Recent development decisions Developments decided since 2000 (green or brownfield)

Page 5: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

5 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Operators

Identification of the main operators of the the main producing fields the main discoveries the main start-ups the main new developments

Involvement of the identified operators give our view of the main past events ask them to give their own views

From the industry point of view (past and future performance) On their own performances (past and future performance)

Page 6: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

6 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas

Main mature areas Europe

United Kingdom Norway Nederlands Germany Central Europe …

North America Lower 48 Conventional GOM …

South America Argentina …

Page 7: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

7 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

Main deep offshore areas (Gas) Gulf of Mexico Brazil Australia …

Page 8: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

8 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Main Arctic zones Russia Norway Greenland Canada Alaska

Page 9: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

9 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Gas monetization technologies

LNG (?)

GTL

DME

Methanol/Petrochemicals

Gas to Wire

Page 10: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

10 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas

Page 11: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

11 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas

UK

Page 12: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

12 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas : United Kingdom

2002 2007 production profiles Cumulative production since 2002 : 17 TCF Production peak in 2002 Production decline will accelerate Main producing fields in 2007 are : Alwyn (Total), Morecambe South (Centrica),

Elgin Franklin (Total), Britannia (Chevron ConocoPhillips), Brae (Marathon), Bruce (BP), Brent (BP), others produce less than 250 Mscfpd…

Main production growth since 2002 : Goldeneye (Shell), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Atlantic & Cromarty (BG Amerada Hess), Rhum (BP), Rivers (ConocoPhillips), Carrack (Shell), others increased less than 100 Mscfpd…

Main production decline since 2002 : Brent (BP), Bruce (BP), Morecambe South (Centrica), Morecambe North (Centrica), Armada (BG), Brae (Marathon), others decreased less than 150 Mscfpd…

Page 13: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

13 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas : United Kingdom

2007 2012 production trends Main production growth from 2007 to 2012 : Harding (BP), Sean (Shell), Laggan

(Total), Devenick (BP), Leman (Shell), others will increase less than 100 Mscfpd Main production decline from 2007 to 2012 : Morecambe South (Centrica), Brae

(Marathon), Britannia (Chevron ConocoPhillips), Brent (BP), Alwyn (Total), Bruce (BP), Elgin Franklin (Total), Atlantic & Cromarty (BG Amerada Hess), Goldeneye (Shell), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Armada Area (BG), Easington Catchment Area (BG), others will decrease less than 100 Mscfpd.

Page 14: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

14 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas : United Kingdom

Main discoveries : Cumulative discovered reserves since 2000 : 1 TCF Only one discovery above 500 Bcf : Jura (Total)

Main production start-ups Since 2002 : Carrack (Shell), Rhum (BP), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Rivers

(ConocoPhillips), Goldeneye (Shell), Rhum (BP)…other start ups were on fields with less than 200 Bcf.

After 2007 : Harding (BP), Brodgar/Callanish (ConocoPhillips), Kessog and Devenick (BP), Jura and Laggan (Total)…other start-ups will be on fields with less than 200 Bcf.

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15 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK Main operators

Shell No significant gas discoveries since 2002 Production start-ups before 2007: Goldeneye, Shearwater, Carrack Significant production increases before 2007 : Shearwater Significant production increases before 2012 : Sean, Leman Significant decline before 2012 : Goldeneye

BP No significant gas discoveries since 2002 Significant declines since 2002 and after 2007 : Brent, Bruce Production start-up before 2007 : Rhum Production start-ups after 2007 : Harding, Kessog and Devenick

Page 16: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

16 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK Main operators

Total Discoveries before 2007 : Jura Significant production in 2007 and significant decline before 2012 : Alwyn, Elgin-

Franklin Production start-ups after 2007 : Jura and Laggan

ConocoPhillips No significant gas discoveries since 2002 Significant production in 2007 and decline before 2012 : Britannia (with Chevron) Production start-up before 2007 : Saturn area, Rivers Production start-up after 2007 : Brodgar/Callanish Significant decline after 2007 : Saturn area, Britannia,

Page 17: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

17 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK Main operators

BG No significant gas discoveries since 2002 Significant decline before 2007 : Armada area, Significant decline after 2007 : Atlantic & Cromarty, Easington Catchment Production start-ups before 2007 : Atlantic & Cromarty

Centrica No significant gas discoveries since 2002 Significant decline after 2002 : Morecambe South, Morecambe North,

Page 18: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

18 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : questions to all the selected operatorsExploration results

Would you agree with this : Since 2002 the industry has not been able to replace its production

1 TCF discovered for 17 TCF produced. Jura is the largest discovery

What are the reasons for that performance?

Will this trend go on or, if not, at which conditions will gas reserve replacement get closer to 100%?

Would you agree with this : Between 2007 and 2012 gas production will decrease.

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19 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : questions to all the selected operatorsStart-ups

Would you agree with this : Less than 4 Tcf of reserves have been put in production since end 2002 : Carrack

(Shell), Rhum (BP), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Rivers (ConocoPhillips), Goldeneye (Shell), Rhum (BP)…

After 2007 : Brodgar/Callanish (ConocoPhillips), Kessog and Devenick (BP), Jura and Laggan (Total)…

Until 2012, do you see other start-ups than the ones listed above ?

Page 20: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

20 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : questions to all the selected operatorsProduction profiles

Your comments on the following points :

From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production growth will be the most significant are : Harding (BP), Sean (Shell), Laggan (Total), Devenick (BP), Leman (Shell).

From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production decline will be the most significant are : Morecambe South (Centrica), Brae (Marathon), Britannia (Chevron

ConocoPhillips), Brent (BP), Alwyn (Total), Bruce (BP), Elgin Franklin (Total), Atlantic & Cromarty (BG Amerada Hess), Goldeneye (Shell), Saturn Area (ConocoPhillips), Armada Area (BG), Easington Catchment Area (BG).

Page 21: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

21 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : Questions to Shell

Shell did not make any significant discovery since 2002. Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or

what else

Does Shell anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Shell started gas production from 2 fields : Goldeneye, Carrack Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Production from Sean and Leman will increase : Any comment on these increases (difficulties, key success factors, innovations).

Production from Goldeneye will decline. Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 22: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

22 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : Questions to BP

BP did not make any significant discovery since 2002. Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or

what else

Does BP anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

BP started gas production from 1 field : Rhum. Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

BP will start gas production from 2 fields : Kessog, Devenick and Harding

Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations).

Production from Brent and Bruce will go on declining. Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 23: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

23 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : Questions to TOTAL

Since 2002, TOTAL discovered Jura. Any comment on this result?

Does TOTAL anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

TOTAL did not start any new gas field since 2002.

TOTAL will start gas production from 2 fields : Jura and Laggan Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Production from Alwyn and Elgin-Franklin will begin its decline. Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 24: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

24 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : Questions to ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips did not make any significant discovery since 2002. Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or

what else

Does ConocoPhillips anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

ConocoPhillips started gas production from 2 fields : Saturn area and Rivers

Any comment on these developments : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

ConocoPhillips will start gas production from 1 field : Brodgar Callanish Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations).

Production from Britannia and Saturn area will begin its decline. Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 25: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

25 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : Questions to BG

BG did not make any significant discovery since 2002. Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or

what else

Does BG anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

BG started gas production from 1 field : Atlantic & Cromarty Any comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Production from Armada area have begun to decline and productions from Atlantic & Cromarty, Easington Catchment will begin their declines.

Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 26: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

26 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

UK : Questions to Centrica

Centrica did not make any significant discovery since 2002. Any reason for that? Is it due to a reduction of budget, or to exploration risks or

what else

Does Centrica anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Production from Morecambe South, Morecambe North will go on declining

Is that right? Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 27: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

27 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas

Norway

Page 28: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

28 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature Areas

Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, others

Page 29: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

29 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

Page 30: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

30 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

GOM

Page 31: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

31 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

Brazil, Australia…

Page 32: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

32 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Page 33: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

33 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Russia

Page 34: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

34 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Canada

Page 35: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

35 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Norway

Page 36: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

36 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Greenland…

Page 37: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

37 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Gas monetization

Page 38: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

38 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Gas monetization

Overall trends

Page 39: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

39 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

LNG

Status

Changes since last WGC Status of projects which were identified in 2006 Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought

to be launched soon. What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from

what was anticipated in 2006? Costs, competition, markets, politics…

New projects (not identified in 2006) How did they arise?

Page 40: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

40 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

GTL

Status

Changes since last WGC Status of projects which were identified in 2006 Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought

to be launched soon. What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from

what was anticipated in 2006? Costs, competition, markets, politics…

New projects (not identified in 2006) How did they arise?

Suggestion : costs, risks, sometimes DME competition?

Page 41: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

41 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

DME

Status

Changes since last WGC Status of projects which were identified in 2006 Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought

to be launched soon. What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from

what was anticipated in 2006? Costs, competition, markets, politics…

New projects (not identified in 2006) How did they arise?

Suggestion : look at China

Page 42: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

42 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Methanol

Status

Changes since last WGC Status of projects which were identified in 2006 Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought

to be launched soon. What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from

what was anticipated in 2006? Costs, competition, markets, politics…

New projects (not identified in 2006) How did they arise?

Suggestion : look at China

Page 43: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

43 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Gas to Wire

Status

Changes since last WGC Status of projects which were identified in 2006 Particular focus on projects which were not launched at that time but were thought

to be launched soon. What are the main reasons for projects status in 2008 or 2009 being different from

what was anticipated in 2006? Costs, competition, markets, politics…

New projects (not identified in 2006) How did they arise?

Page 44: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

44 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

The events which impacted Gas Monetization since 2006

From LNG to Gas to Wire Capital costs

Effects on risk management and contracting

Competition Marketing Politics

Page 45: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

45 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature areas

Norway

Page 46: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

46 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway

2002 2007 production profiles Cumulative production since 2002 : 15 TCF Production will increase significantly after 2007 Main producing fields in 2007 are : Troll (Statoil), Asgard (Statoil), Sleipner

Vest and Ost (Statoil), Kristin (Statoil), Gullfaks satellites (Statoil), Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro), Ekofisk (ConocoPhillips), Oseberg (Norsk Hydro), Snohvit (Statoil), others produce less than 200 Mscfpd.

These fields are also the ones whose production increased the most between 2002 and 2007.

Main production declines since 2002 : Huldra (Statoil), Sleipner Vest (Statoil) … others decreased less than 100 Mscfpd…

Page 47: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

47 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway

2007 2012 production trends Main production growth from 2007 to 2012 : Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro),

Troll (Statoil), Snohvit (Statoil), Kvitebjorn (Statoil), Oseberg (Norsk Hydro), Fram (Norsk Hydro), others will decrease by less than 100 Mscfpd

Main production declines : Sleipner Vest (Statoil), Sleipner Ost (Statoil), Gullfaks satellites (Statoil), Tune (Norsk Hydro), Kristin (Statoil), Huldra (Statoil), Skirne (Total), others will decrease by less than 100 Mscfpd

Page 48: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

48 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway

Main discoveries No significant discoveries has occurred since 2002

Main production start-ups Since 2002 : Mikkel (Statoil), Kvitebjorn (Statoil), Kristin (Statoil), Snohvit

(Statoil), Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro), Oseberg Sor (Norsk Hydro), Fram (Norsk Hydro),

After 2007 : Tyrihans (Statoil), Gjoa (Statoil), Vega and Vega Sur (Norsk Hydro), Skarv (BP), Valemon (Statoil), Hild (Total)

Page 49: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

49 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : main operators

Statoil No discovery Main producing fields : Troll , Asgard, Sleipner Vest and Ost, Kristin, Gullfaks

satellites, Snohvit, Main production growth after 2007 : Troll, Snohvit, Kvitebjorn, Main production declines after 2007 : Sleipner Vest, Sleipner Ost, Gullfaks

satellites, Kristin, Huldra, Production start-ups before 2007 : Mikkel, Kvitebjorn, Kristin, Snohvit, Production start-ups after 2007 : Tyrihans, Gjoa, Valemon

Page 50: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

50 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : main operators

Norsk Hydro No discovery Main producing fields : Ormen Lange, Oseberg Main production growth after 2007 : Ormen Lange Main production declines after 2007 : Tune Production start-ups before 2007 : Ormen Lange, Oseberg Sor, Fram Production start-ups after 2007 : Vega and Vega Sur

Page 51: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

51 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : main operators

BP No discovery Production start-ups after 2007 : Skarv

ConocoPhillips No discovery Main producing fields in 2007 : Ekofisk

Total No discovery Main production declines after 2007 : Skirne

Page 52: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

52 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : questions to all the selected operatorsExploration results

Would you agree with this : No significant discovery since 2002 What are the reasons for that performance? Any comment about the relatively

small size of the discoveries?

Will the performance improve or not, if not, at which conditions will gas reserve replacement get closer to 100%?

Would you agree with this : Production will increase significantly due to Ormen Lange and Snohvit build-ups

and then the country production plateau will last for several years.

Page 53: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

53 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : questions to all the selected operatorsStart-ups

Would you agree with this : Around 25 Tcf of reserves have been put in production since end 2002 : Mikkel,

Kvitebjorn, Kristin, Snohvit, Ormen Lange. Fields to be developed after 2007 are smaller : Tyrihans, Gjoa, Vega and Vega

Sur, Skarv, Valemon, Hild

Until 2012, do you see other start-ups than the ones listed above ?

Page 54: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

54 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : questions to all the selected operatorsProduction profiles

Your comments on the following points :

From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production growth will be the most significant are : Ormen Lange (Norsk Hydro), Troll (Statoil), Snohvit (Statoil), Kvitebjorn (Statoil),

Oseberg (Norsk Hydro), Fram (Norsk Hydro),

From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production decline will be the most significant are : Sleipner Vest (Statoil), Sleipner Ost (Statoil), Gullfaks satellites (Statoil), Tune

(Norsk Hydro), Kristin (Statoil), Huldra (Statoil), Skirne (Total)

Page 55: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

55 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : Questions to Statoil

Since 2002, no significant discovery

Does Statoil anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, Statoil started gas production from 4 fields : Mikkel, Kvitebjorn, Kristin, Snohvit,

comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

After 2007, Statoil will start production from 3 fields : Tyrihans, Gjoa, Valemon Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations).

Production from Troll will grow after 2007 Any comment?

Production from Sleipner Vest, Sleipner Ost, Gullfaks satellites, Kristin, Huldra, will decline after 2007

Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 56: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

56 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : Questions to Norsk Hydro

Since 2002, no significant discovery

Does Norsk Hydro anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, Norsk Hydro started gas production from Ormen Lange, Oseberg Sor, Fram :

comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

After 2007, Norsk Hydro will start production from Vega and Vega Sur Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations).

Production from Tune will decline after 2007 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 57: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

57 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : Questions to ConocoPhillips

Since 2002, no significant discovery

Does ConocoPhillips anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, ConocoPhillips did not start gas production from any field comment ?

After 2007, ConocoPhillips will not start gas production from any field Any comment ?

Production from Ekofisk will decline after 2007 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 58: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

58 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : Questions to BP

Since 2002, no significant discovery

Does BP anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, BP did not start gas production from any field comment ?

After 2007, BP will start gas production from Skarv comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Page 59: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

59 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Norway : Questions to Total

Since 2002, no significant discovery

Does Total anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, Total did not start gas production from any field comment ?

After 2007, Total will not start gas production from any field Any comment ?

Production from Skirne will decline after 2007 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 60: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

60 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Mature Areas

Argentina, Germany, Netherlands, others

Page 61: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

61 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Argentina Main operators are Repsol YPF, Total, Panamerican

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62 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

New Zealand No significant discoveries since Pohokura (2000) Main producers in 2007 : Maui (Shell Todd Services), Pohokura (Shell), Kapuni

(Shell Todd Services), Decline of the main field Maui Growth on a recently developed field : Pohokura Probable development of Kupe (Origin energy). Country production stable until 2010+ and then strong decline.

Questions to Shell (or Shell Todd services) No discovery in the future? Maui : any ways to slow the decline?

Page 63: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

63 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

Page 64: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

64 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

GOM

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65 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore : GOM

2002 2007 production profiles Cumulative production since 2002 : 6 TCF Production quite stable Main producing fields in 2007 are : Na Kika (BP), RamoPowell (Shell), Mensa

(Shell), Mars (Shell), Red Hawk (Anadarko), Nansen (Kerr-McGee),…others produce less than 100 Mscfpd.

Main production growth since 2002 : Na Kika (BP), Falcon (Marubeni), …others increased less than 80 Mscfpd…

Main production decline since 2002 : Marlin (BP), Hoover/Diana (ExxonMobil), Mica (ExxonMobil) … others decreased less than 80 Mscfpd…

Page 66: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

66 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore : GOM

2007 2012 production trends Main production growth from 2007 to 2012 : Atlantis (BP), Jubilee (Anadarko)…

others will increase by less than 50 Mscfpd Main production declines : Na Kika (BP), Ram-Powell (Shell), Mensa (Shell),

Mars (Shell), Red Hawk (Anadarko), Falcon (Marubeni), Rigel (Dominion Resources), Hoover/Diana (ExxonMobil)… others will decrease by less than 50 Mscfpd

Page 67: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

67 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore : GOM

Main discoveries Cumulative discovered reserves since 2002 : 2.5 TCF

Great White (Shell), Jubilee Spiderman (Anadarko), Tahiti (Chevron), Tubular Bells (BP) others less than 200 Bcf.

Main production start-ups Since 2002 : Red Hawk (Anadarko), Gunnison, Jubilee, Spiderman (Anadarko),

Falcon (Marubeni), Na Kika (BP), Atlantis (BP), Holstein (BP)…other start ups were on fields with less than 200 Bcf.

After 2007 : Great White (Shell), Thunder Horse (BP), Tahiti (Chevron), Bass Lite (Mariner Energy)…other start ups will be on fields with less than 200 Bcf.

Page 68: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

68 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

GOM : main operators

BP Discoveries : Tubular Bells Production start-ups since 2002 : Holstein, Atlantis Production start-ups after 2007 : Thunder Horse Production growth since 2002 and decline after 2007 : Na Kika Production decline since 2002 : Marlin

Anadarko Discoveries : Jubilee, Spiderman Production start-ups since 2002 : Gunnison, Jubilee, Spiderman, Red Hawk Production decline after 2007 : Red Hawk

Page 69: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

69 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

GOM : main operators

Shell Discoveries : Great White Production start-ups after 2007 : Great White Production decline after 2007 : Na Kika Ram-Powell, Mensa, Mars

ExxonMobil Production decline since 2002 : Hoover Diana, Mica

Chevron Discovery : Tahiti Production start-ups after 2007 : Tahiti

Marubeni Production start-up since 2002 : Falcon

Page 70: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

70 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

GOM : main operators

Mariner Energy Production start-ups after 2007 : Bass Lite

Marubeni Production start-up since 2002 : Falcon Production decline after 2007 : Falcon

Kerr-McGee Significant production in 2007 : Nansen

Page 71: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

71 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep GOM : questions to all the selected operatorsExploration results

Would you agree with this : Since 2002 the industry has not been able to replace its production

2.5 TCF discovered for 6 TCF produced. Great White (Shell), Jubilee, Spiderman (Anadarko), Tahiti (Chevron), Tubular Bells (BP). The initial reserves of the largest discovery (Great White) is around 600 Bcf. The second initial gas reserves are in Jubilee (350). All the others are less than 250 Bcf.

What are the reasons for that performance? Any comment about the relatively small size of the discoveries?

Will this trend go on or, if not, at which conditions will gas reserve replacement get closer to 100%?

Would you agree with this : After 2010 gas production will decrease.

Page 72: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

72 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep GOM : questions to all the selected operatorsStart-ups

Would you agree with this : Around 5 Tcf of reserves have been put in production since end 2002 : Red Hawk

(Anadarko), Gunnison, Jubilee, Spiderman (Anadarko), Falcon (Marubeni), Na Kika (BP), Atlantis (BP), Holstein (BP),

After 2007 : Great White (Shell), Thunder Horse (BP), Tahiti (Chevron), Bass Lite (Marine Energy)

Until 2012, do you see other start-ups than the ones listed above ?

Page 73: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

73 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep GOM : questions to all the selected operatorsProduction profiles

Your comments on the following points :

From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production growth will be the most significant are : Atlantis (BP), Jubilee (Anadarko)

From 2007 to 2012, the fields whose production decline will be the most significant are : Na Kika (BP), Ram-Powell (Shell), Mensa (Shell), Mars (Shell), Red Hawk

(Anadarko), Falcon (Marubeni), Rigel (Dominion Resources), Hoover/Diana (ExxonMobil)

Page 74: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

74 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to BP

Since 2002, BP discovered Tubular Bells. Any comment on this result?

Does BP anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, BP started gas production from 2 fields : Atlantis and Holstein comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

After 2007, BP will start production from Thunder Horse Any comment on these start-ups (difficulties, key success factors, innovations).

Production from Na Kika will decline after 2007 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 75: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

75 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to Anadarko

Since 2002, Anadarko discovered Jubilee and Spiderman Any comment on this result?

Does Anadarko anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

Since 2002, Anadarko started gas production from 4 fields : Gunnison, Jubilee, Spiderman, Red Hawk

comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Production from Red Hawk will decline after 2007 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 76: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

76 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to Chevron

Since 2002, Chevron discovered Tahiti Any comment on this result?

After 2007, Chevron will start production from Tahiti Any comment on this start-up what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Page 77: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

77 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to Shell

Since 2002, Shell discovered Great White Any comment on this result?

Does Shell anticipate significant discoveries in the next five years.

After 2007, Shell will start production from Great White Any comment on this start-up what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Production from Ram-Powell, Mensa and Mars will decline after 2007 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 78: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

78 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to ExxonMobil

Production from Hoover/Diana and Mica will decline after 2007-2010 Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 79: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

79 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to Marubeni

Since 2002, Marubeni started gas production from Falcon comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Falcon’s production will decline after 2007 : Any way to slow down the decline?

Page 80: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

80 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Questions to Mariner Energy

Since 2002, Mariner Energy started gas production from Bass Lite comment on this development : what were the key success factors for these

developments? Did the operator find any particular difficulty to overcome? Did some of these developments involved some sort of innovation in terms of technology, marketing, contracts, or …?

Page 81: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

81 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Deep offshore

Brazil, Australia…

Page 82: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

82 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Australia Scarborough operator ExxonMobil 8 TCF depth 900 m discovered in 1979.

Development not decided. Greater Gorgon project operator Chevron 17 TCF depth 114 to 1350 m discovered

1973 to 2000 (Io/Jansz) not decided Production in Australia is very much dependant on North West Shelf and Greater

Gorgon project (not decided)

Brazil Roncador (Campos Basin) operator Petrobras 1 TCF depth 1853 m discovered in

1996. Marlim Sur (Campos) operator Petrobras 1 TCF depth 1200 m discovered in 1987

start 2002 Urugua pole (BS 500) (Santos) depth 1012 1595 m discovered in 2001 1.6 TCF

probable development start in 2010 Mexilhao (Santos) operator Petrobras depth 334 912 m discovered in 2001 under

development start 2009

Page 83: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

83 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Page 84: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

84 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Russia

Page 85: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

85 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Russia Arctic : which fields are in the Arctic areas

Shtokmanovskoye to developed arctic offshore disc 1988

Bovanenkovskoye onshore prod start 2011 operator gazprom

Urengoiskoye onshore disc 1966 start 78 gazprom

Yamburgskoye onshore disc 1969 start 85 gazprom

Zapolyarnoye onshore disc 1965 start 2001 gazprom

South Russkoye onshore disc 1965 start 2001 gazprom

North Urengoiskoye (Northgas) onshore disc 1970 start 2001 gazprom

Pestsovoye onshore disc 1974 start 2004 gazprom

Nakhodinskoye onshore disc 1974 start 2005 Lukoil

Medvezhye onshore disc 1967 start 1972 gazprom

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86 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Russia

No significant discoveries since 1988 (Shtokman)!!!?????

All fields are onshore except Shtokman.

Page 87: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

87 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Canada

Page 88: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

88 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Beaufort Sea & MacKenzie Delta

The largest gas discovery in the area is the Taglu field which is estimated to hold recoverable reserves in the order of 3.0 tcf of gas. The second largest is the Parsons Lake field with reserves of 2.3 tcf of gas. In 2003, the Langley discovery was made and is estimated by Wood Mackenzie to contain 300 bcf of gas. The three recent gas discoveries in the north of the territory have also added close to 1 tcf.

Taglu : 3 TCF disc 75 prod start 2015 Imperial oil

Parsons lake : 2.3 TCF disc 72 prod start 2015 ConocoPhillips

Page 89: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

89 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Other discoveries : Total discovered reserves for this region are 1,022 mmbbl of oil and 7.1 tcf of gas.  Amaugilak 1 Tcf ConocoPhillips discovered 1984 Issungnak 1 Tcf ConocoPhillips discovered 1980

Page 90: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

90 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

No significant recent discoveries????

Page 91: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

91 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Norway

Page 92: -  WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

92 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Snohvit, Goliat

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93 - WOC 1 SG 1.1 18 october 2007 Teheran Iran

Arctic zones

Greenland…