Violetville & IrvingtonTeam 1

Team 1: Chris Calitz, Zachary Evans, Sandra Ho, Summer Xia, Chen Yu

Contents

①Study sites

②Context

a. Spatial features

b. Demographics

③Human capital theory

④Amenities theory

⑤Observations and interview

⑥Summary of measures supporting theories

⑦Synopsis of key findings

Treatment Comparison

Census track 2501.03 Census track 2008.00

“Violetville” “Irvington”

Violetville reversed the decline in households during 1990-2000 and grew its households in 2000-2010 whereas Irvington continued to decline

Study sites

Change in households

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (1990, 2000 and 2010)

1990 2000 20100

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Change in households

VioletvilleIrvington

Year

Num

ber o

f hou

seho

lds

Violetville Irvington

1990-2000 2000-2010 1990-2000 2000-2010

-12.9% 7.1% -1.1% -9.9%

Context

Spatial features

Violetville: pics (to follow)

St. Agnes (anchor institution)Housing stockVioletville parkLocal shops

Irvington: enclaves in close proximity

vs

Demographics

Metric Violetville IrvingtonHousing units 1,815 842

Housing type Detached with lawns Mixed, mostly rowhouses

Racial composition Mostly white (74%) Mostly African-American (85%)

Median household $ $36,957 $32,711

Live in poverty 15% 27%

Own-vs-rent 53% / 47% 53% / 47%

Human capital theory: strong support

Measurement Violetville Irvington1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

% Employed 51 92 98 49 87 78

% Unemployed 49 8 2 51 13 22

% Poverty 8 9 15 13 21 26

Employment• Violetville increased over both decades• Irvington increased during the 90’s, decreased in the last decade• Civilian labor force participation remained stablePoverty• Violetville has approximately 40% less residents living in poverty• Increase in both sites during the last decade may be due to the Great Recession

Employment: percent change

90-'00 00-'10

-30-20-10

0102030405060

Percentage change in employment

VioletvilleIrvingtonBaltimore

Year

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e

Weak support

Human capital theory: weak support

Measurement Violetville Irvington1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

% Bachelor’s degree or higher 6 9 15 10 10 13

% High-school drop-out 49 39 30 33 36 19

Bachelor’s degree or higher• Violetville increased over both decades• Irvington decreased during the 90’s, increased in the last decadeHigh school drop out• Contrary to expectation, Violetville has a higher prevalence• Violetville declined in both decades, Irvington significantly in the last decade

Educational attainment: percent change

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

Percent change in Bachelor’s degrees or higher

VioletvilleIrvingtonBaltimore

Year

Perc

ent c

hang

e

Amenities theory: strong support

Measurement Violetville Irvington1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Median sales price ($) 111,535 85,951 127,500 71,465 63,768 56,500

% Vacancy 3.4 6.2 5.6 8.9 13.1 17.8

Median sales price• xxxxx• Xxxxxx

Vacancy• xxx• xxxx

Median sales price: the recession

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

2010 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Change in median sales price

IrvingtonVioletville

Year

Med

ian

sale

s pr

ice

($)

Amenities theory: mixed support

Crime• Crime declined in study sites and city as a whole• Violetville has less overall crime than Irvington

Violetville Irvington Baltimore City0

50

100

150

200

250

111

210225

94

144 149

Change in Total Crime Per 1,000

20002010

Tota

l Cri

me

/ 1,

000

Mixed support: school quality

Violetville Irvington Baltimore State0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

63

32 31

56

73 73 74

83

Percent Proficient and Advanced in Math

20002010

Perc

ent C

hang

e

School quality• Contrary to expectation, study sites perform well in relation to the city and state• Irvington improved significantly during 2000’s to be on par with Violetville

Violetville Beechfield Baltimore State0

102030405060708090

100

46

31

44

66

84 81 8189

Percent Proficient and Advanced in Eng-lish

20002010

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Observations and interviews

- City planner

- Irvington Community Association

- Local priest and activist

- Local principal

- New homeowners in Violetville

Decline vs. stability

Decline of Irvington• Decline of the Catholic church since 1980’s

• From “community parish” to “commuter parish”• Loss of quality amenities• Perceived increase in crime and influx of “street drugs”• Unemployment

Stability of Violetville• Relatively “isolated” from Irvington (cemetery and highways)• Proximity of St. Agnes Hospital (anchor institution)• Proximity to Arbutus and affordable “county-like” living

Summary: human capital theory

Measure Support from study sites

Bachelor’s degree of higher Strong

High-school drop-out Mixed

Per capita income Strong

Employment Strong

Unemployment Strong

Own vs. rent Weak

People living in poverty Strong

Summary: amenities theory

Measure Support from study sites

Median sales price Strong

Rent value Weak

Vacant housing Strong

Abandonment Strong

Foreclosure Mixed

Crime Mixed

School quality Weak

Synopsis of key findings

Theories of growth• A balance of strong and mixed support for the human capital and

amenities theories

Violetville• A stable, quiet middle-class neighborhood with low poverty, high

employment, good property values and low vacant housing and abandonment

Irvington• A moderately declining lower-middle class neighborhood

currently struggling with high poverty, unemployment and vacant housing