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City Council Agenda December 2, 2013/

File No.:194-18

CITY COUNCIL AGENDA REPORT

Subject: RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS Recommendation(s) That the report titled Retail Market Analysis as shown in Attachment 1 to the agenda report dated December 2, 2013 be received as information.

Purpose of Report This report is being presented to provide Council and the Public with the information that will help guide current and future business investment decisions in St. Albert. This report examines the current state of the Retail Market in St. Albert as well as projects the future demands that the growing St. Albert and area residential sector will be able to support. Council Direction On October 15, 2012, Council passed the following motion: (C467-2012) Moved by Councillor Lemieux That the plans to enact the Economic Development Plans outlined in the Economic Development Plans report dated October 15, 2012, be approved. Background and Discussion Economic Development has been a high priority for the City of St. Albert for many years and has received a heightened focus in recent years. Over the course of 2012 to date, significant efforts have been made toward building toolsets directed at expanding and diversifying the economy in St. Albert. The Economic Development Division presented Council with a work plan on October 15, 2012 that outlined the specific efforts and projects which would be undertaken working towards the goal of attracting non-residential development to St. Albert. It was determined that a Retail Market Analysis report would be a significant component in direct support of several of key aspects of the work plan, such as; Business Retention and Expansion, Investment Attraction and the ongoing development of our Marketing Plan. A call for proposals to undertake the analysis went out in May 2013, and Colliers International Consulting was selected based on proposals received from two firms.


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The Colliers Retail Market Analysis report received November 20, examines the shopping habits of St. Albertans, the existing distribution of most of the retail sectors, and compares this to the disposable income of our residents. One of the most notable aspects of these statistics shows that St. Albert residents, as a collective, have the second highest per household and per capita incomes in the province. The following table summarizes the responses to a survey that was undertaken as part of this analysis to determine the shopping habits of St. Albertans.

The Retail Market Analysis also examines and makes some assumptions regarding the City’s close proximity to the City of Edmonton and to other


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populations scattered north of St. Albert in order to analyze the trade area influences on St. Albert’s retail sector. Using this information, and industry standard approaches, the vitality of retail sectors in St. Albert is demonstrated through a ‘leaking’ and ‘surplus’ designation for each major retail sector. It should be noted that this is the current state of the retail market in St. Albert that is being sustained by the real world shopping habits and purchasing powers of the shoppers who use these stores in St. Albert. The following table highlights specific sectors which indicate that there are more people shopping in St. Albert than our population would support (‘surplus’ designation). It also indicates which retail sectors that many St. Albert residents shop outside of the City (‘leakage’ designation). ‘Surplus’ does not suggest that these sectors are in jeopardy but merely indicates that a proportion of their customers are coming from outside of the St. Albert resident population. ‘Leakage’ sectors are an opportunity for potential retail expansion within St. Albert that could be supported by St. Albert residents choosing to shop locally.

The next level of review undertaken in the analysis examines St. Albert’s undeveloped areas and the pace of growth. Each of the residential areas is examined for future population and an estimate of the personal disposable income that residents in these neighborhoods may generate. This collection of future


File No.:194-18

buying power information from all of St. Albert’s known development areas is then converted into retail floor space by sector. This growth component is then added to the existing floor space inventory to determine the future demand. The timeframe associated with the residential build out scenario in the analysis is 20 - 25 years. The following table indicates the amount of additional future retail space in each sector (doubling of the existing total) that will be required in St. Albert over the next 20 - 25 years.

The previous tables provide a current and future demand snapshot of the potential retail market in St. Albert. The ease of mobility of St. Albert residents and shoppers within the region and beyond has a significant impact on the capture of the retail sector in St. Albert. Although this mobility aspect cannot be predicted, past shopping trends and the results of the survey do help inform the future. Next Steps Upon acceptance of this report as information, Economic Development will undertake the following actions:

1. Issue a press release on December 3rd indicating the highlights of the analysis

2. Provide copies of the report to all interested parties such as:


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a. Existing St. Albert land developers b. Future St. Albert land developers c. Targeted retailers

i. Furniture/Home Furnishings ii. Clothing and Clothing Accessories iii. Motor vehicle and Parts

d. Commercial listing agents, retail marketers, retail brokers, leasing agents

e. Property management groups holding property in St. Albert f. Potential investors that have a relationship with Economic

Development 3. Distribute to potential interested parties at trade shows such as

a. International Council of Shopping Centre’s (Schedule one-on-one meetings to present)

b. Real Estate Forums (Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver, Toronto) 4. Hold a redevelopment symposium for interested market sectors 5. Presentation at Business Breakfast 6. Presentation at Chamber of Commerce 7. Featured on City and Economic development web pages

Stakeholder Communications or Engagement A significant component of this analysis included a survey of the 351 residents in St. Albert. The Market Research was undertaken by the Mustel Group Market research firm from June 11 – 20, 2013. Their findings, Shopping Habits of the City of St. Albert Residents report, are included in the Colliers report. On October 30, 2013, the Community of St. Albert Facebook Page posed a question to its members asking what types of businesses (and specific stores) they would like to have in St. Albert, and that they would actually patron. Suggested businesses ranged from hobby shops to big box stores, including but not limited to: IKEA, Bed Bath & Beyond, Bulk Barn, Apple and a movie theatre. Also mentioned were a number of clothing franchises. There were a total of 223 comments posted over a two day period. In addition the report was vetted through the Economic Development Advisory Board on November 5, 2013. Implications of Recommendation(s) The Retail Market Analysis report is a highly sought after and practical tool used extensively in the industry. Investors such as land assemblers, retail marketers, retailers, entrepreneurs, investment houses rely on these sources of information in determining where and when they make investment decisions. Administration has learned, through many dialogues with representatives from the full spectrum of the investment community in venues across Canada, that St.


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Albert has a high potential for investment. Administration has also learned that information such as the Retail Market Analysis is very time sensitive and needs to get into as many investment decision makers hands as possible immediately after production. This report will be made available to the industry immediately after Council accepts it as information. • Financial: None at this time. • Legal / Risk: None at this time. • Program or Service:

This report could spur significant investment interest and activity demands on Economic Development Staff as well as others in the corporation who provide information supporting investment decisions (Planning and Development, Engineering, Assessment, Finance, Legal).

• Organizational: None at this time. Alternatives and Implications Considered The status quo approach of being reactionary to inquiries of the potential business attraction opportunities in St. Albert has not driven the degree of business investment into St. Albert that will serve to meet the goal of increased pace and volume of non-residential development. This tool is seen as being a proactive approach in working towards this goal and as stated earlier in the report, the Retail Market Analysis is highly anticipated by the industry and several inquiries have been received over the past month regarding the status of the report and the timing of its release. Strategic Connections a) Council’s Goals and Priorities

• ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: Build and diversify St. Albert’s economy in partnership with the community and key stakeholders.

b) Long Term Plans c) Corporate Objectives

• Deliver programs and services that meet or exceed our standards; • Exercise strong fiscal management; • Ensure our customers are very satisfied.


File No.:194-18

d) Policies • N/A

e) Other Plans or Initiatives • N/A

Attachment(s) 1. Retail Market Analysis Report 2. Executive Summary, Retail Market Analysis

Originating Department(s): Economic Development Author(s): General Manager Approval: Guy Boston, Executive Director City Manager Signature:

Date:

Attachment 1

Attachment 1

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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GDP Growth % Forecast

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Attachment 1

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Real GDP $ millions

Forecast

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Personal income percapita growth

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Attachment 1

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Housing Starts

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Attachment 1

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Residential

Industrial

Commercial

Public

Attachment 1

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Retail Sales $ millions

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Attachment 1

Attachment 1

Source: Edmonton Real Estate Board

Attachment 1

Attachment 1

Total Population 61,465 60,994 64,377

Total Population by Age Number % Number % Number %

0 to 4 years 3,385 5.51% 2,640 4.68% 3,522 5.50%

5 to 9 years 3,655 5.95% 3,475 6.16% 3,805 5.90%

10 to 14 years 4,200 6.83% 3,818 6.77% 4,119 6.40%

15 to 19 years 4,550 7.40% 4,174 7.40% 4,500 7.00%

20 to 24 years 4,090 6.65% 3,704 6.57% 4,288 6.70%

25 to 29 years 3,345 5.44% 2,988 5.30% 3,682 5.70%

30 to 34 years 3,420 5.56% 3,110 5.52% 3,874 6.00%

35 to 39 years 3,915 6.37% 3,463 6.14% 4,294 6.70%

40 to 44 years 4,420 7.19% 3,973 7.05% 4,625 7.20%

45 to 49 years 5,180 8.43% 4,465 7.92% 5,048 7.80%

50 to 54 years 5,170 8.41% 4,784 8.48% 5,284 8.20%

55 to 59 years 4,545 7.39% 4,337 7.69% 4,897 7.60%

60 to 64 years 3,840 6.25% 3,643 6.46% 4,030 6.30%

65 + 7,760 12.63% 7,817 13.86% 8,409 13.06%

2012 St. Albert

Municipal Census*

Source: Environics 2013 data Estimates at Block Level & 2012 St. Albert Municipal Census

*4,453 residents were not included in the age breakdown as they elected not to provide their age information

2013 Environics

Projections

2011 Canadian Census

Occupied Private Dwellings by

Structure Type

22,515 22,397 23,919

Houses 19,905 88.41% 19,796 88.39% 21,166 88.50%

Single-detached house 16,690 74.13% 16,630 74.25% 17,772 74.30%

Semi-detached house 1480 6.57% 965 4.31% 1,595 6.70%

Row house 1,735 7.71% 2,201 9.83% 1,799 7.50%

Apartment, building low and high

rise

2,605 11.57% 2,601 11.61% 2,588 10.80%

2012 St. Albert

Municipal Census

2013 Environics

Projections

Source: Environics 2013 data Estimates at Block Level & 2012 St. Albert Municipal Cenus

2011 Canadian Census

Attachment 1

% % %

2013 Total Population by Age 64,377 1,241,933 3,897,557

0 to 4 years 3,522 5.50% 78,202 6.30% 261,233 6.70%

5 to 19 years 12,424 19.30% 209,738 16.90% 695,785 17.90%

20 to 24 years 4,288 6.70% 95,943 7.70% 280,073 7.20%

25 to 34 years 7,556 11.70% 211,108 17.00% 633,732 16.30%

35 to 44 years 8,919 13.90% 177,056 14.30% 563,852 14.50%

45 to 54 years 10,332 16.00% 179,775 14.50% 566,273 14.50%

55 to 64 years 8,927 13.90% 144,839 11.70% 452,354 11.60%

65 to 74 years 4,926 7.70% 80,505 6.50% 249,263 6.40%

75 years & over 3,483 5% 64,767 5% 194,992 5%

Median Age 40.1 36.4 36.4

St. Albert (CY), AB Edmonton, AB Alberta

Source: Environics 2013 data Estimates at Block Level

2013 2013 2013

Households 23,919 483,358 1,486,633

Growth

Households by Size of

Household

23,919 483,358 1,486,633

1 person 4,398 18.40% 123,444 25.50% 361,052 24.30%

2 persons 8,508 35.60% 161,881 33.50% 507,667 34.10%

3 persons 4,148 17.30% 79,416 16.40% 242,010 16.30%

4 persons 4,746 19.80% 73,632 15.20% 229,200 15.40%

5 persons 1,581 6.60% 28,915 6.00% 92,344 6.20%

6 or more persons 538 2.20% 16,070 3.30% 54,360 3.70%

Persons in Households 63,314 1,223,139 3,821,310

Persons per household 2.65 2.53 2.57


% % %


Attachment 1

2013 2013 2013


Tenure

23,919 483,358 1,486,633

Owned 21,293 89.00% 349,161 72.20% 1,114,850 75.00%

Rented 2,622 11.00% 133,558 27.60% 361,030 24.30%

Band housing 4 0.00% 639 0.10% 10,753 0.70%


% % %


2013 2013 2013


Structure Type

23,919 483,358 1,486,633

Houses 21,166 88.50% 349,538 72.30% 1,130,487 76.00%

Single-detached house 17,772 74.30% 285,167 59.00% 948,666 63.80%

Semi-detached house 1,595 6.70% 24,987 5.20% 77,585 5.20%

Row house 1,799 7.50% 39,384 8.10% 104,236 7.00%

Apartment, building low and high

rise

2,588 10.80% 116,562 24.10% 270,906 18.20%

Less than five floors 121 0.50% 27,930 5.80% 62,857 4.20%

Five or more floors 2,467 10.30% 88,632 18.30% 208,049 14.00%

Detached duplex 155 0.60% 9,129 1.90% 34,766 2.30%


% % %


Attachment 1

2013 % 2013 % 2013 %

2013 Population 15 years and

over by Educational Attainment

51,895 1,010,696 3,105,311

No certificate, diploma or degree 6,612 12.70% 195,025 19.30% 674,340 21.70%

High school certificate or equivalent 12,529 24.10% 248,233 24.60% 768,919 24.80%

Apprenticeship or trades certificate

or diploma

4,497 8.70% 104,478 10.30% 319,402 10.30%

College, CEGEP or other non-

university certificate or diploma

10,133 19.50% 181,011 17.90% 538,337 17.30%

University certificate or diploma

below bachelor

3,058 5.90% 46,816 4.60% 138,032 4.40%

University certificate or degree 15,066 29.00% 235,133 23.30% 666,281 21.50%



2013 % 2013 % 2013 %

2013 Labour Force 15 years and

over by Occupation

39,495 744,726 2,326,883

Management 5,865 14.80% 74,402 10.00% 231,068 9.90%

Business, finance and

administration

7,651 19.40% 139,198 18.70% 413,290 17.80%

Natural and applied sciences and

related

2,684 6.80% 54,219 7.30% 180,244 7.70%

Health occupations 2,738 6.90% 46,575 6.30% 127,059 5.50%

Occupations in social science,

education, government service and

religion

3,762 9.50% 58,946 7.90% 163,827 7.00%

Occupations in art, culture,

recreation and sport

957 2.40% 18,163 2.40% 52,659 2.30%

Sales And Service 9,080 23.00% 169,636 22.80% 518,031 22.30%

Trades, transport and equipment

operators and related

5,165 13.10% 135,336 18.20% 417,357 17.90%

Occupations unique to primary

industry

754 1.90% 20,248 2.70% 129,083 5.50%

Occupations unique to processing,

manufacturing and utilities

628 1.60% 22,612 3.00% 77,493 3.30%



Attachment 1

2013 Estimates

Household Income

2013 % 2013 % 2013 %

2013 Households by Income

(Current Year $)

23,919 %base 483,358 %base 1,486,633 %base

Under $10,000 288 1.20% 13,244 2.70% 41,722 2.80%

$ 10,000 - $19,999 539 2.30% 26,518 5.50% 81,244 5.50%

$ 20,000 - $29,999 626 2.60% 29,273 6.10% 91,517 6.20%

$ 30,000 - $39,999 842 3.50% 33,710 7.00% 105,566 7.10%

$ 40,000 - $49,999 1,029 4.30% 35,576 7.40% 111,282 7.50%

$ 50,000 - $59,999 1,127 4.70% 34,016 7.00% 106,515 7.20%

$ 60,000 - $69,999 1,261 5.30% 33,011 6.80% 102,972 6.90%

$ 70,000 - $79,999 1,338 5.60% 31,896 6.60% 98,976 6.70%

$ 80,000 - $89,999 1,433 6.00% 29,284 6.10% 90,977 6.10%

$ 90,000 - $99,999 1,395 5.80% 28,438 5.90% 84,041 5.70%

$ 100,000 - $ 199,000 11,139 46.60% 152,331 31.60% 443,376 29.80%

$ 200,000 and over 2,902 12.10% 36,061 7.40% 128,445 8.60%

Average income $133,198 $103,668 $108,874

Median Income $115,364 $81,514 $80,387

Average Income Per Capita $50,263 $40,975 $42,363



Attachment 1

Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Retail Supply (sf)Major Retail Category

2013

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 122,728 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 15,608 Electronics and appliance stores [443] 41,552 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 281,265 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 280,962 Convenience stores [44512] 11,734 Specialty food stores [4452] 23,609 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 63,961 Health and personal care stores [446] 129,608 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 104,920 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 47,470 General merchandise stores [452] 759,926 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 87,467 Restaurant Food & Beverage 247,481

Total Retail Supply 2,218,290

Source: City of St. Albert & Colliers International Consulting

Attachment 1

Attachment 1

AB

St. Albert

2013

2013 Population Estimate 3,897,557 64,377 Average HH Income (2013

estimate) 108,874$ 133,198$ Avg. Household Size

(2013) 2.57 2.65Average Per Capita

Income Estimate (2013) 42,363$ 50,263$

Provincial PDI Per Capita 40,681$ n/a

Income Differential 100% 119%

PDI Per Capita 40,681$ 48,267$

Source: Conference Board of Canada & Environics 2013

Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Retail DemandResident Expenditure Potential

2013Population 64,377 INCOME (PDI) 48,267$

TOTAL INCOME POTENTIAL $3,107,269,880RETAIL SALES / INCOME 41.4%

TOTAL RETAIL POTENTIAL $1,285,777,300

Source: Colliers International Consulting

City of St. Albert Retail DemandResident Expenditure Potential




Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 346,670,525$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 43,642,191$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 48,484,376$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 68,554,218$ Food and beverage stores [445] 251,023,615$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 185,665,664$ Convenience stores [44512] 14,447,320$ Specialty food stores [4452] 8,356,144$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 42,554,300$ Health and personal care stores [446] 55,874,111$ Gasoline stations [447] 170,777,855$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 74,453,877$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 32,195,114$ General merchandise stores [452] 164,376,309$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 29,725,110$

TOTAL - MAJOR RETAIL CATEGORIES (3-Digit NAICS Codes) 1,285,777,000$


Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Retail DemandResident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales

Reqm't 2013Major Retail Category ($/Sq. Ft.)

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 770,379 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 96,982 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 53,871 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 171,385 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 265,237 Convenience stores [44512] $700 20,639 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 11,937 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $500 85,108 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 69,843 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 165,453 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 71,544 General merchandise stores [452] $400 410,940 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 74,313 NET WARRANTED RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 2,267,600


Attachment 1

St. Albert

Resident Food & Beverage Spending (2013)

City of St. Albert

Food purchased from restaurants $2,709Alcohol purchased at licensed establishments $468

Food purchased from restaurants $1,022Alcohol purchased at licensed establishments $177Total $1,199

Source: Colliers PCensus areas, Environics 2012 Household Spending Survey data.

Household Spending

Per Capita Spending

St. Albert Restaurant Food & Beverage Potential 2013

City of St. Albert Current F & B Spending 77,179,520$ $/sf Productivity $650City of St. Albert Supportable F&B Floor Area (sf) 118,738 Source: Colliers PCensus areas, Environics 2012 Household Spending Survey data.

Attachment 1

Attachment 1

North Inflow Trade AreaResident Expenditure Potential



TOTAL RETAIL POTENTIAL $645,495,200


TOTAL - MAJOR RETAIL CATEGORIES (3-Digit NAICS Codes) 645,495,000$


Attachment 1

North Inflow Trade AreaResident Sales Capture by Category

Market

Capture 2013Major Retail Category (%)

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 10% 17,403,804$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 30% 6,573,000$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 30% 7,302,000$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 30% 10,325,000$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 10% 9,321,000$ Convenience stores [44512] 10% 725,000$ Specialty food stores [4452] 10% 420,000$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 10% 2,136,000$ Health and personal care stores [446] 10% 2,805,000$ Gasoline stations [447] 0% -$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 30% 11,213,000$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 30% 4,849,000$ General merchandise stores [452] 30% 24,756,000$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 30% 4,477,000$

TOTAL, NET RETAIL EXPENDITURES - Above Categories 102,306,000$

Source: Colliers International Consulting - Rounded to nearest $1,000.

Attachment 1

North Inflow Trade Area Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales

Reqm't 2013Major Retail Category ($/Sq. Ft.)

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 38,675 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 14,607 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 8,113 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 25,813 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 13,316 Convenience stores [44512] $700 1,036 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 600 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $500 4,272 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 3,506 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 24,918 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 10,776 General merchandise stores [452] $400 61,890 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 11,193 NET WARRANTED RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 218,700


Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Retail Demand

Total Warranted Retail-Commercial Floor Area by CategoryMajor Category Including Inflow 2013

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 886,092 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 121,287 Electronics and appliance stores [443] 67,372 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 214,336 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 305,077 Convenience stores [44512] 23,738 Specialty food stores [4452] 13,731 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 97,891 Health and personal care stores [446] 80,333 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 206,916 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 89,474 General merchandise stores [452] 513,924 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 92,936 NET WARRANTED RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Traditional Retail Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 2,713,100

Restaurant Food & Beverage 140,600

Total Supportable Retail 2,853,700


Attachment 1

Attachment 1

Growth Area Current (2013) Build-Out Population

Riverside/Giroux Growth

Node 8 8,714 Elysian Fields/Avenir

Growth Node - 4,000 North West Growth Node - 6,000 Erin Ridge North Growth

Node - 3,430 Pineview II/Kingswood

Growth Node 3,540 5,940 Downtown Infill Growth

Node 631 2,800 South Riel - 1,440 Growth Area Total 4,179 32,324

Growth Area Population Projections

Source: City of St. Albert & Colliers International

Attachment 1

Riverside Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential

Build-OutIncremental Population (Relative To 2013) 8,706 INCOME (PDI) 66,151$

TOTAL INCOME POTENTIAL $575,912,160RETAIL SALES / INCOME 40.3%





Riverside Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales

Reqm't Build-OutMajor Retail Category ($/Sq. Ft.)

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 139,093 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 17,511 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 9,727 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 30,945 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 47,889 Convenience stores [44512] $700 3,726 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 2,156 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $800 9,604 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 12,610 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 29,873 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 12,918 General merchandise stores [452] $400 74,195 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 13,418 GROSS RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 403,700


Attachment 1

Elysian Fields/Avenir Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential

Build-OutINCREMENTAL POPULATION (RELATIVE TO 2013) 4,000 INCOME (PDI) 65,831$



Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 28,663,213$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 3,608,399$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 4,008,757$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 5,668,160$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 15,351,102$ Convenience stores [44512] 1,194,525$ Specialty food stores [4452] 690,898$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 3,518,450$ Health and personal care stores [446] 4,619,751$ Gasoline stations [447] 14,120,156$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 6,155,953$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 2,661,938$ General merchandise stores [452] 13,590,868$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 2,457,714$



Attachment 1

Elysian Fields/Avenir Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales


Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 63,696 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 8,018 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 4,454 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 14,170 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 21,930 Convenience stores [44512] $700 1,707 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 987 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $800 4,398 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 5,775 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 13,680 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 5,916 General merchandise stores [452] $400 33,978 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 6,145 GROSS RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 184,900


Attachment 1

North West Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential




Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 48,669,864$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 6,127,026$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 6,806,832$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 9,624,483$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 26,066,025$ Convenience stores [44512] 2,028,292$ Specialty food stores [4452] 1,173,138$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 5,974,295$ Health and personal care stores [446] 7,844,294$ Gasoline stations [447] 23,975,892$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 10,452,749$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 4,519,945$ General merchandise stores [452] 23,077,164$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 4,173,176$



North West Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales


Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 108,155 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 13,616 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 7,563 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 24,060 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 37,237 Convenience stores [44512] $700 2,897 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 1,676 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $800 7,468 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 9,805 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 23,229 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 10,044 General merchandise stores [452] $400 57,693 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 10,433 GROSS RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 313,900


Attachment 1

Attachment 1

Erin Ridge North Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential




Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 26,648,644$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 3,354,785$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 3,727,005$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 5,269,779$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 14,272,163$ Convenience stores [44512] 1,110,569$ Specialty food stores [4452] 642,339$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 3,271,159$ Health and personal care stores [446] 4,295,056$ Gasoline stations [447] 13,127,733$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 5,723,287$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 2,474,846$ General merchandise stores [452] 12,635,645$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 2,284,976$



Erin Ridge North Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales




Attachment 1

Attachment 1

Pineview II/Kingswood Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential




Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 20,829,367$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 2,622,199$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 2,913,137$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 4,119,015$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 11,155,544$ Convenience stores [44512] 868,053$ Specialty food stores [4452] 502,071$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 2,556,834$ Health and personal care stores [446] 3,357,143$ Gasoline stations [447] 10,261,024$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 4,473,490$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 1,934,413$ General merchandise stores [452] 9,876,393$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 1,786,005$



Pineview II/Kingswood Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales




Attachment 1

Downtown Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential




Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 16,306,933$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 2,052,872$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 2,280,642$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 3,224,702$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 8,733,473$ Convenience stores [44512] 679,583$ Specialty food stores [4452] 393,062$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 2,001,699$ Health and personal care stores [446] 2,628,246$ Gasoline stations [447] 8,033,169$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 3,502,214$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 1,514,416$ General merchandise stores [452] 7,732,049$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 1,398,231$



Attachment 1

Downtown Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales


Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 36,238 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 4,562 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 2,534 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 8,063 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 12,476 Convenience stores [44512] $700 971 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 561 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $800 2,503 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 3,285 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 7,782 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 3,364 General merchandise stores [452] $400 19,330 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 3,495 GROSS RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 105,200


Attachment 1

South Riel Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Expenditure Potential




Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 10,826,190$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 1,362,904$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 1,514,121$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 2,140,883$ Food and beverage stores [445] 7,839,228$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 5,798,162$ Convenience stores [44512] 451,176$ Specialty food stores [4452] 260,954$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 1,328,930$ Health and personal care stores [446] 1,744,895$ Gasoline stations [447] 5,333,230$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 2,325,124$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 1,005,423$ General merchandise stores [452] 5,133,316$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 928,287$



South Riel Incremental Retail DemandProjected Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales


Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 24,058 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 3,029 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 1,682 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 5,353 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 8,283 Convenience stores [44512] $700 644 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 373 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $800 1,661 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 2,181 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 5,167 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 2,233 General merchandise stores [452] $400 12,833 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 2,320 GROSS RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 69,800


Attachment 1

Total Incremental Retail Demand

Gross Retail Floor Area By Growth Area

Build-OutRiverside/Giroux Growth Node 403,700 Elysian Fields/Avenir Growth Node 184,900 North West Growth Node 313,900 Erin Ridge North Growth Node 171,900 Pineview II/Kingswood Growth Node 134,300 Downtown Infill Growth Node 105,200 South Riel 69,800 GROSS TRADE AREA RESIDENT SUPPORT - TRADITIONAL RETAIL 1,383,700


Attachment 1

North Inflow Trade AreaResident Expenditure Potential

Build-OutPopulation 84,344 INCOME (PDI) 44,212$




TOTAL - MAJOR RETAIL CATEGORIES (3-Digit NAICS Codes) 1,675,918,000$


Attachment 1

North Inflow Trade AreaResident Sales Capture by Category

Market

Capture Build-OutMajor Retail Category (%)

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 10% 45,186,003$ Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 30% 17,065,000$ Electronics and appliance stores [443] 30% 18,959,000$ Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 30% 26,807,000$ Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 10% 24,200,000$ Convenience stores [44512] 10% 1,883,000$ Specialty food stores [4452] 10% 1,089,000$ Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 10% 5,547,000$ Health and personal care stores [446] 10% 7,283,000$ Gasoline stations [447] 0% -$ Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 30% 29,114,000$ Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 30% 12,589,000$ General merchandise stores [452] 30% 64,276,000$ Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 30% 11,623,000$

TOTAL, NET RETAIL EXPENDITURES - Above Categories 265,621,000$

Source: Colliers International Consulting - Rounded to nearest $1,000.

North Inflow Trade Area Resident Floor Area Support By Category

Sales


Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] $450 100,413 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] $450 37,922 Electronics and appliance stores [443] $900 21,066 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] $400 67,018 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] $700 34,571 Convenience stores [44512] $700 2,690 Specialty food stores [4452] $700 1,556 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] $500 11,094 Health and personal care stores [446] $800 9,104 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] $450 64,698 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] $450 27,976 General merchandise stores [452] $400 160,690 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] $400 29,058 NET WARRANTED RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Above Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 567,900


Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Retail Demand

Total Warranted Retail-Commercial Floor Area by CategoryMajor Category Including Inflow Build-Out

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 1,472,251 Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 210,622 Electronics and appliance stores [443] 116,997 Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 372,210 Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 506,886 Convenience stores [44512] 39,443 Specialty food stores [4452] 22,812 Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 140,922 Health and personal care stores [446] 133,474 Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 359,324 Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 155,375 General merchandise stores [452] 892,462 Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 161,388 NET WARRANTED RETAIL FLOOR AREA - Traditional Retail Categories (Nearest 100 sf) 4,584,200

Restaurant Food & Beverage 273,800

Total Supportable Retail 4,858,000


Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Leakage/Surplus AnalysisMajor Retail Category

2013

Supply

2013

Demand

Leakage/

Surplus

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 122,728 886,092 -763,364Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 15,608 121,287 -105,679Electronics and appliance stores [443] 41,552 67,372 -25,820Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 281,265 214,336 66,929Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 280,962 305,077 -24,115Convenience stores [44512] 11,734 23,738 -12,004Specialty food stores [4452] 23,609 13,731 9,878Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 63,961 97,891 -33,930Health and personal care stores [446] 129,608 80,333 49,275Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 104,920 206,916 -101,996Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 47,470 89,474 -42,004General merchandise stores [452] 759,926 513,924 246,002Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 87,467 92,936 -5,470Restaurant Food & Beverage 247,481 140,600 106,881Source: Colliers International Consulting

Attachment 1

Attachment 1

City of St. Albert Leakage/Surplus AnalysisMajor Retail Category

2013

Supply

Build-

Out

Demand

Leakage/

Surplus

Motor vehicle and parts dealers [441] 122,728 1,472,251 -1,349,523Furniture and home furnishings stores [442] 15,608 210,622 -195,014Electronics and appliance stores [443] 41,552 116,997 -75,445Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers [444] 281,265 372,210 -90,945Supermarkets and other grocery (except convenience) stores [44511] 280,962 506,886 -225,924Convenience stores [44512] 11,734 39,443 -27,709Specialty food stores [4452] 23,609 22,812 797Beer, wine and liquor stores [4453] 63,961 140,922 -76,961Health and personal care stores [446] 129,608 133,474 -3,866Clothing and clothing accessories stores [448] 104,920 359,324 -254,404Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores [451] 47,470 155,375 -107,905General merchandise stores [452] 759,926 892,462 -132,536Miscellaneous store retailers [453] 87,467 161,388 -73,921Restaurant Food & Beverage 247,481 273,800 -26,319Source: Colliers International Consulting

Attachment 1

Attachment 1

Attachment 2

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$ 250,000and over

St. Albert Edmonton Alberta

Attachment 2

Attachment 2

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL

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MAIN +1 604 681 4111 FAX +1 604 681 2309 TOLL FREE +1 866 681 2655

This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers International. © 2013. All rights reserved.

Attachment 2

: retail market analysispbtech.org/.../6.2_retail_market_analysis.pdf · the colliers retail market...

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