, r.e. massey and m.c. shannon agricultural and applied...

40
J.A. Lory 1 , R.E. Massey 2 and M.C. Shannon 3 1 Plant Sciences, 2 Agricultural and Applied Economics, 3 Animal Science University of Missouri, Columbia MO 65211

Upload: duongdiep

Post on 13-Apr-2018

217 views

Category:

Documents


2 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

J.A. Lory1, R.E. Massey2 and M.C. Shannon3

1Plant Sciences, 2Agricultural and Applied Economics, 3Animal ScienceUniversity of Missouri, Columbia MO 65211

Page 2: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Feeder Pig, $38.55

Feed, $107.18

Variable Costs, $22.19

Operating Interest, $3.32

Fixed Costs, $8.45

Costs: $184.04 /hog (58% feed)Loss: $ 12.47 /hogManure1: $ 8.41 /hog

1ISU analysis did not include manure value.

Page 3: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

-40.00

-30.00

-20.00

-10.00

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Includes Full Manure Value

No Manure Value

Pro

fit/

Lo

ss (

$/p

ig)

Page 4: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Assess the impact of incorporating manure into feed management decisions.

How have changes in low-cost diets over the period from 2002 to 2011 affected estimated fertilizer value of manure?

Period covers the widespread adoption of incorporating corn dried distillers grains with solubles (DDG) into swine diets.

Determine how low-cost diets would have changed if fertilizer value of excreted was integrated as a co-product into linear programming feed optimization routines.

The goal is no longer least cost ration formulation but jointly considering ration cost and manure value.

Page 5: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Percen

t

50-70 lb No DDG 50-70 lb 40% DDG 210-250 lb No DDG 210-250 lb 30% DDG

Page 6: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Regulatory and voluntary strategy to minimize impact of manure management on water quality is to fully utilize manure nutrients as fertilizer for crop production(USEPA, 2008).

Fertilizer nutrients can be a significant component of net income on swine operations (e.g. Lory et al., 2004).

Fertilizer value of nutrients excreted by livestock can vary widely due to many factors including: diet, manure handling system, method of application and soil nutrient status.

Page 7: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Software is commonly used to optimize diets based on nutritional needs of the animal and costs of available ingredients.

Feed optimization programs primarily consider input costs for evaluating low-cost rations.

Some research suggests adding environmental costs for over feeding N and P.

Our research is asking if the market for feed and fertilizer nutrients can address N and P pollution.

Page 8: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

National Swine Nutrition Guide (NSNG) Diet Formulation and Evaluation Software (NSNG, 2010) estimates manure fertilizer value of different diets

Does not include manure value as part of the optimization routine.

Nutritional constraint changes in recent years Available P was reduced in 2007 for 50-130 lb pigs;

constant, otherwise.

Ca was reduced in 2007 for all diets – affects Ca:P ratios that can affect P in the manure.

Amino Acids changed (some increased, some decreased) in 2007 – can affect N in manure by affecting crude protein in diet.

Page 9: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

$6

$7

$8

Do

lla

rs/b

ush

el

Page 10: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Co

st

($

/to

n)

Corn Soybean Meal (47.5%) DDG

Page 11: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

$0.00

$200.00

$400.00

$600.00

$800.00

$1,000.00

$1,200.00

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Co

st

($

/to

n)

MonoCal (21%P) DiCal (18.5%P) Anhy Ammon DAP Potash

Page 12: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Evaluated seven diets: 50-70 lb pigs

70-90 lb pigs

90-130 lb pigs

130-170 lb pigs

170-210 lb pigs

210-250 lb pigs

Greater than 250 lb pigs

Evaluated with or without DDG as a feed component option. 50-130 lb pigs limited to 40% DDG in ration

130 to 250 lb pigs limited to 30% DDG in ration

Greater than 250 lb pigs were not fed DDG in ration.

Evaluated with an without manure value in the optimization function.

Page 13: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

USDA Annual Prices for Corn Soybean Meal Anhydrous Ammonia Fertilizer Diammonium Phosphate Fertilizer Potassium Fertilizer

By-Product Feed Price Database –DDG Missouri Swine Feed Group (personal communication)

Dical Monocal L-Lysine L-Threonine Phytase - effectiveness based on Naturophos option in

NSNG (2010).

Page 14: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Phase Finisher 1 (50-70 lb.) Finisher 6 (210-250 lb.)Year of nutrient constraints 1997 2007 1997 2007ME (kcal/lb) 1,510 1,512 1,517 1,521Total Lys 1.21 1.10 0.54 0.66Iso 0.72 0.61 0.32 0.37Met 0.33 0.31 0.15 0.19Met&Cys 0.66 0.63 0.29 0.38Thr 0.78 0.67 0.35 0.41Try 0.22 0.18 0.10 0.11Val 0.00 0.72 0.00 0.43

Ca 0.76 0.56 0.50 0.49

Avail P 0.34 0.27 0.19 0.19Ca:TP ratio 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25

Ca:AP ratio 2.23 2.07 2.70 2.62DDGS limit 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3

Page 15: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Diet nutrients constraints based on Kansas State University Swine Nutrition Guide (1998; 2007) and NRC (1998, 2012).

Feed component composition based on NSNG (2010).

Nutrient retention (N, P, K) of pigs based on equations in NSNG (2010).

Nutrient availability for crop production of excreted nutrients based on slurry tank manure injected into soil. Excreted N, P and K were assumed to be 70%, 100% and100% available, respectively.

Linear programming optimization routines executed in Microsoft Excel Solver.

Page 16: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Excreted nutrients are the difference between fed nutrient and retained nutrients.

Over feeding nutrients in swine diets does not further increase nutrient retention of pigs(e.g. Henley et al., 2012;McDonnell et al., 2011) .

Curvilinear relationship between phytase units (FTU kg-1) and P availability (%) linearized for optimization routine by transforming relationships into six linear segments with decreasing effectiveness.

Farmers received full fertilizer value for plant-available manure N, P and K.

Page 17: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Results

Page 18: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cost

diffe

rence b

etw

een w

ith a

nd w

ithout

DD

G in d

iet

50 70 90 130 170 210

Page 19: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Pounds o

f N

/ton o

f Feed

Beginning Weight: DDG in diet/DDG out of diet

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

50 70 90 130 170 210 250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

DDG always increase diet CP and excreted N

Page 20: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Beginning Weight: DDG in diet/DDG out of diet

Pounds o

f P2O

5/t

on o

f Feed

0

5

10

15

20

25

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

50 70 90 130 170 210 250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Page 21: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Beginning Weight: DDG in diet/DDG out of diet

Pounds o

f P2O

5/t

on o

f Feed

Grower: DDG is always increase diet CP and excreted N

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

50 70 90 130 170 210 250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Positive value: DDG in diet increases P2O5 in manureNegative value: DDG in diet decreases P2O5 in manure

Page 22: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Beginning Weight: DDG in diet/DDG out of diet

Pounds o

f K2O

/ton o

f Feed

0

5

10

15

20

25

In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out In Out

50 70 90 130 170 210 250

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Page 23: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

lb.

P/t

on f

eed

No DDG in diet

Corn P SBM P DDG P Mineral P

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

40% DDG in diet

Corn P SBM P DDG P Mineral P

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

Page 24: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Valu

e (

$/

ton

of

feed

)

50-70 lb No DDG 50-70 lb 40% DDG 210-250 lb No DDG 210-250 lb 30% DDG

Page 25: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

DDG always the low-cost diet.

DDG always increased diet CP and excreted N.

DDG usually decreased excreted P prior to 2007. DDG usually increased excreted P after 2007.

On the whole, excretion of N, P and K have decreased over time. Due to increasing value of fertilizer nutrients, the value of manure has increased over time.

Page 26: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Results

Page 27: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Year: no = Diet optimization onlyYes = Diet and Manure optimization

Pounds o

f P/t

on o

f Feed

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sum of TP Mineral

Sum of TP DDG

Sum of TP SBM

Sum of TP Corn

Note: Phytase used in 2009, 2010 and 2011 when manure value not optimized

Limestone: AP = 0?

Page 28: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Change ($/ton)

Year Diet Cost Manure Value Net Value

2007 1.91 2.45 0.542008 0.00 0.00 0.002009 0.00 0.00 0.002010 0.35 0.38 0.042011 1.03 1.20 0.17Average .66 .81 .15

Page 29: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Year: no = Diet optimization onlyYes = Diet and Manure optimization

Pounds o

f P/t

on o

f Feed

2007 high P not seen when no DDG in diet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no yes

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sum of TP Dical

Sum of TP MonoCal

Sum of TP SBM

Sum of TP Corn

Note: Phytase used in 2009, 2010 and 2011 when manure value not optimized

Page 30: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Change ($ ton feed)

Year Diet Cost Manure Value Net Value

2007 0.06 0.08 0.022008 0.11 0.26 0.152009 0.03 1.54 1.502010 0.57 1.43 0.862011 0.75 1.69 0.94Average .30 1.00 .70

Page 31: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

$0.00 $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70 $0.80 $0.90 $1.00

50-70

70-90

90-130

130-170

170-210

210-250

Difference in Net Feed Costs ($/ton)

Weig

ht

Range

Net Feed Cost Difference between Manure included

and Manure not included in optimizationNet Feed Cost = Feed Cost –Manure Value

DDG

No DDG

Page 32: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

1. Had no effect on diet composition 2001-2006.

2. Small benefits but worth evaluating in 2007-2011.

3. Eliminated phytase from diets containing DDG.

4. Reduced or eliminated phytase in C-SBM diets. Controlled by energy in diet and P-density of P sources.

Page 33: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

Manure is a significant source of value to livestock producers.

Opportunities exist to integrate the value of manure into the least cost diet decision so that net income is optimized. Impact is currently small.

Caveat: cost of diets are certain expense; value of manure is uncertain revenue.

Minimizing P Excretion in C-SBM diets still limited by P availability of corn.

Page 34: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

J.A. Lory1, R.E. Massey2 and M.C. Shannon3

1Plant Sciences, 2Agricultural and Applied Economics, 3Animal ScienceUniversity of Missouri, Columbia MO 65211

Page 35: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

Cost

($/t

on)

50-70 lb phase

No DDG 40% DDG

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

170-210 lb phase

No DDG 30% DDG

Page 36: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

lb.

N/t

on feed

50-70 lb phase

No DDG 40% DDG

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

210-250 lb phase

No DDG 30% DDG

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

Page 37: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

5

10

15

20

25

lb.

P2O

5/t

on feed

50-70 lb phase

No DDG 40% DDG

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

0

5

10

15

20

25

210-250 lb phase

No DDG 30% DDG

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

Page 38: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

5

10

15

20

25

lb.

K2O

/ton feed

50-70 lb phase

No DDG 40% DDG

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

0

5

10

15

20

25

210-250 lb phase

No DDG 30% DDG

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

Page 39: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

lb.

P/t

on feed

Manure value not in

optimizationCorn P SBM P DDG P MonoCal P DiCal P

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Manure value in

optimization

Corn P SBM P DDG P

MonoCal P Dical P

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

Page 40: , R.E. Massey and M.C. Shannon Agricultural and Applied ...nmplanner.missouri.edu/regulations/heartland/2014/07_Manure_Feed... · into linear programming feed optimization routines

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

lb.

P/t

on feed

Manure value not in

optimizationCorn P SBM P DDG P MonoCal P DiCal P

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Manure value in

optimizationCorn P SBM P DDG P

MonoCal P Dical P

1997 Constraints 2007 Constraints