policies data collected for noecd countries

CAPRI CAPRI

3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna

POLICIES DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIESPOLICIES DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIES

DEMANDE SYSTEM ESTIMATIONDEMANDE SYSTEM ESTIMATION

THE AGGREGATION METHODTHE AGGREGATION METHOD

Kamel ELOUHICHI

Belgium Team

SENSITIVITY TEST WITH THE MARKET MODULE SENSITIVITY TEST WITH THE MARKET MODULE

PROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCLPROJECT PLANNING FOR THE THIRD YEAR AT UCL

CAPRICAPRICommon Agricultural Policy Regional ImpactCommon Agricultural Policy Regional Impact

CAPRI CAPRI


POLICY DATA COLLECTED FOR POLICY DATA COLLECTED FOR NOECD COUNTRIESNOECD COUNTRIES

TRQ : Tariff rate quota TRQ : Tariff rate quota •TRQNT : the TRQ in tonsTRQNT : the TRQ in tons•TAPREF : ad valorem tariff applied inside the TRQTAPREF : ad valorem tariff applied inside the TRQ•TAMF : ad valorem tariff outside the TRQTAMF : ad valorem tariff outside the TRQ

TARS : Most favourite nation specific tariffTARS : Most favourite nation specific tariff

PSE : Producer subsidy equivalentPSE : Producer subsidy equivalent CSE : Consumer subsidy equivalentCSE : Consumer subsidy equivalent

Expsub : Per unit export subsidyExpsub : Per unit export subsidy Exps : Subsidized exportsExps : Subsidized exports Qute : WTO quantity limit on subsidized exportsQute : WTO quantity limit on subsidized exports

Cpri :Cpri : Consumer priceConsumer price Ppri : Producer pricePpri : Producer price Padm : Administrative pricePadm : Administrative price

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ORGANISATION OF COUNTRY DATA ORGANISATION OF COUNTRY DATA POLICIESPOLICIES

CAPRI CAPRI


)(

5.0

)1(Im

I

regionRj

Dsale

Dsale

p

mpW

jj

j

jj

jj

Import quantity of jth country

Aggregationcoefficient

Domestic sale of jth country

Import quantity of regional aggregation (CEE, ACP, MAD…)

Domestic sale of regional

aggregation(CEE, ACP,…)

AGREGATION RULEAGREGATION RULE

CAPRI CAPRI

3rd CAP-STRAT Workshop, 24./25.03.2003, Bologna Bologna : 25-26/03/2003

INTRODUCTION OF DATA POLICIES IN THE MODELINTRODUCTION OF DATA POLICIES IN THE MODEL

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CEECEE (11 C)(11 C)

CADCAD (19 C)(19 C)

MEDMED(11 C)(11 C)

CHNCHN(1 C)(1 C)

INDIND(1 C)(1 C)

ACPACP(74 C)(74 C)

ROWROW(91 C)(91 C)

SourcesSources

TRQTRQ Most Most Most Most Most Most Most AMAD/GTAP 5

TARSTARS Most Most Most Most Most Most Most AMAD/WTO

PSEPSE All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)

CSECSE All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)

ExpsuExpsubb

Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO / GTAP 5

ExpsExps Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO

QuteQute Most Few Few None None Few Few WTO

CpriCpri All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)

PpriPpri All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)

PadmPadm All None Few All None None Few OECD (2002)

ImporImportt

All All All All All Most Most FAO (2002)

D. D. salesale

All All All All All Most Most FAO (2002)

POLICY DATA COVERAGE FOR NOECD COUNTRIES POLICY DATA COVERAGE FOR NOECD COUNTRIES

CAPRI CAPRI


jj

j

ijj

ijii

PwP

p

XPW

og1og1

)og(11og

Budget shareallocated to ith good

Stone’s price index for the group

Total expenditurePrice of the jth good

THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM

(AIDS MODEL)(AIDS MODEL)

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THEORETICAL PROPERTIES OF LA/AIDS MODELTHEORETICAL PROPERTIES OF LA/AIDS MODEL

jiij

jij

i iijii i

0

0,0,1HomogeneityHomogeneity

Adding-upAdding-up

SymmetrySymmetry

CAPRI CAPRI


i

ijijij w

Price elasticities

The Kronecker delta Share of total expenditure allocated to ith good

Bologna : 25-26/03/2003

APPROACH USED TO ESTIMATING DEMAND APPROACH USED TO ESTIMATING DEMAND ELASTICITIES FROM THE LA/AIDS MODELELASTICITIES FROM THE LA/AIDS MODEL

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CEREALS CEREALS and and

SUGAR SUGAR

OILSEEDS and OILSEEDS and VEGETABLESVEGETABLES

OILSOILS DAIRY DAIRY PRODUCTS PRODUCTS

FRUITSFRUITS MEATS MEATS and EGGS and EGGS

WINE WINE

• SOFTSOFT

WHEATWHEAT• DURUM DURUM WHEATWHEAT•RYE AND RYE AND MESLINMESLIN• BARLEYBARLEY• OATSOATS• MAIZEMAIZE• OTHER OTHER CEREALSCEREALS• RICE MILLEDRICE MILLED• STARCHSTARCH• SUGARSUGAR

• OLIVES FOR OILOLIVES FOR OIL• OTHER OILSEEDSOTHER OILSEEDS• PULSESPULSES•POTATOESPOTATOES•TOMATOESTOMATOES• OTHER OTHER

VEGETABLESVEGETABLES

•RAPE RAPE SEED OILSEED OIL•SUNFL-SUNFL-OWER OWER

SEED OILSEED OIL• SOYA SOYA OILOIL• OLIVE OLIVE OILOIL

• COW MILKCOW MILK• BUTTERBUTTER• SKIMMED MILK SKIMMED MILK POWDERPOWDER• CHEESECHEESE• FRESH MILK FRESH MILK PRODUCTSPRODUCTS• CREAMSCREAMS•CONCENTRA-CONCENTRA-TED MILKTED MILK•WHOLE MILK WHOLE MILK POWDERPOWDER

•APPLES APPLES PEAR & PEAR & PEACHESPEACHES•CITRUSCITRUS• OTHER OTHER FRUITSFRUITS•TABLE TABLE GRAPESGRAPES

• BEEFBEEF• VEALVEAL• PORKPORK• SHEEP & SHEEP & GOATGOAT•POULTRYPOULTRY•EGGSEGGS

•TABLETABLE

WINEWINE• OTHER OTHER WINEWINE

GROUPS OF PRODUCTS (SEPARABILITY ASSUMPTIONS)GROUPS OF PRODUCTS (SEPARABILITY ASSUMPTIONS)

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1

SOFT WHEAT

2

DURUM WHEAT

3

MAIZE

4

OTHER CEREALS

(RYE AND MESLIN,

BARLEY,OATS, OTHER CEREALS)

PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON THE GROUP OF PRELIMINARY RESULTS BASED ON THE GROUP OF CEREALS LA/AIDS MODELCEREALS LA/AIDS MODEL

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SOFT WHEAT

DURUM WHEAT

MAIZE OTHER CEREALS

EXP

SOFT WHEAT

-2,094**

(1.257)

1,118*

(0.109)

DURUM WHEAT

-4,911*

(1.138)

0,557**

(0.336)

MAIZE 7,797

(18.355)

0.571

(1.413)

OTHER CEREALS

-15,911*

(4.921)

-1.371*

(0.475)

ESTIMATED MARSHALLIAN ELASTICITIES AT THE SAMPLE MEANESTIMATED MARSHALLIAN ELASTICITIES AT THE SAMPLE MEANPRELIMINARY RESULTS – FRENCH MARKET - CEREALS - LA/AIDS MODELPRELIMINARY RESULTS – FRENCH MARKET - CEREALS - LA/AIDS MODEL

PRICEPRICE

Note 1 : standard errors are in parenthesesNote 1 : standard errors are in parenthesesNote 2 : *significant at the 5%Note 2 : *significant at the 5%Note 3 : **significant at the 10%Note 3 : **significant at the 10%

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SENSIBILITY ANALYSISSENSIBILITY ANALYSIS

Change Change thethe Armington elasticities (1, 2) of wheat at the EU and we observe the change of :

SP1 : SP1 : CES scale parameterCES scale parameterSP2 : SP2 : CES scale parameter second stage CES scale parameter second stage dp :dp : CES distribution parameter CES distribution parameter

The first example of sensitivity testThe first example of sensitivity test

CAPRI CAPRI


22

11

1

1,,1

1,,,,

1

,,,,,,,,

1

1;

1

1

22

211

22

111

rrir

rririri

rirririrwririri

StreamsdpspArm

DSalesdpArmdpspArm

First stage Armington quantity aggregate

Second stage Armington

quantity aggregate

TWO STAGE ARMINGTON SYSTEMTWO STAGE ARMINGTON SYSTEM

Domestic sales

Armington parameter

Trade streams from r1to r

Elasticity of substitution

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SENSIBILITY ANALYSISSENSIBILITY ANALYSIS

Change Change the shift factor in the supply equation tothe shift factor in the supply equation toincreaseincrease supply for the EU by 10% and compare : supply for the EU by 10% and compare : ProductionProductionPricePriceImports and exportsImports and exportsArm1 : Arm1 : Armington first stage aggregateArmington first stage aggregate Arm2 : Arm2 : Armington second stage aggregateArmington second stage aggregateArm1p : Arm1p : Average price of foreign originsAverage price of foreign originsArm2p : Arm2p : Average price of foreign an domestic originsAverage price of foreign an domestic origins

For different sets of Armington elasticitiesFor different sets of Armington elasticities

The second example of sensitivity test The second example of sensitivity test

j rindex

rjrjiriri p

ppribsasSupply

,

,,,,,

Producer priceSupply for output i and region r Shift factor

CAPRI CAPRI


WP 1 : CAPRI Data BaseWP 1 : CAPRI Data Base1.1. Collection of data premium for Bel. and Lux.Collection of data premium for Bel. and Lux.2.2. Verification of grassland yields for Bel. and Lux.Verification of grassland yields for Bel. and Lux.3.3. Verification of cost estimations for Bel. and Lux.Verification of cost estimations for Bel. and Lux.

WP 4 : Regional Disaggregation of the MarketWP 4 : Regional Disaggregation of the Market ModuleModuleAccess to additional sources to complete the Access to additional sources to complete the policy database for NOECDpolicy database for NOECD


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WP 8 : Revision of the Market ModuleWP 8 : Revision of the Market Module1.1. Continuation of the estimation of the elasticities Continuation of the estimation of the elasticities of the demand for human consumptionof the demand for human consumption2.2. Sensibility tests of Armington elasticities of Sensibility tests of Armington elasticities of substitutionsubstitution3.3. Estimation of Armington elasticities of Estimation of Armington elasticities of substitutionsubstitution4.4. Validation of the market module from the Validation of the market module from the calibration years 1997-1998-1999 to the validation calibration years 1997-1998-1999 to the validation years 2000-2000-2002years 2000-2000-2002

WP 11 : reference run WP 11 : reference run

WP 12 : Simulation run WP 12 : Simulation run

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