objective hotspot software gaussian dispersion equation meteorology effects: wind and air...
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Air Dispersion Modeling:Planning for Airborne Terrorism
Release
Tiffany LeBlanc Gerald GruberREU Program
University of Texas at Arlington
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Outline
Objective Hotspot Software Gaussian Dispersion Equation Meteorology Effects: Wind and Air
Stability Scenarios Modeling Results Conclusion
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REU Objective
The objective of this project was to create a scenario portraying a nuclear terrorist attack using the software HotSpot. This software evaluates and models how a pollutant disperses into the atmosphere depending on certain variables.
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Hotspot
The HotSpot program provides approximation of the radiation effects associated with the atmospheric release of radioactive materials.
Short term accidents or releases
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Gaussian Dispersion Equation
C = Downwind concentration, µg/m3
Q = Pollution source emission rate, µg/su = Average wind speed, m/sσy = y direction plume standard deviation, mσz = z direction plume standard deviation, m
x = Position in the x direction or downwind direction, m
y = Position in the y direction, mz = Position in the z direction, mH = Effective stack height, m
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Gaussian Dispersion Equation
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Air Stability
Turbulent dispersion causes the pollutant concentrations to disperse away from the mean flow.
What are the categories of air stability?› A = Very Unstable› B = Moderately Unstable› C = Slightly Unstable› D = Neutral› E = Slightly Stable› F = Stable
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Air Stability How do you determine air stability?
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Wind
What causes changes in wind flow? Wind is summarized with direction and
velocity. Urban vs. Rural Environments
› Urban environments produce more wind friction than rural environments.
› Concentration is inversely proportional to wind speed.
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Scenario
There is a terrorist attack outside the stadium of the 2012 Super Bowl releasing Plutonium-238.
Variables:› Wind speed (2 m/s,
12m/s)› Air Stability (Category
A and F)› Amount of explosive
(Backpack 20 lbs., Car 200 lbs.)
http://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/afc/LucasOilStadium.htm, 2006
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Plutonium-238 Why Plutonium- 238? Health effects of Plutonium-238 What is MAR? (Materials at Risk)
http://www.clarku.edu/departments/marsh/projects/community/plutonium.pdf, 2002http://news.discovery.com/space/as-nasas-plutonium-supply-dwindles-esa-eyes-nuclear-energy-program.htm, 2010
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Scenario
Backpack Scenario› MAR 2,000 Ci of Plutonium-238› Urban environment› 2 m/s and 12 m/s wind speed from the South› Air Stability Category A and F› 20 lbs. of explosive
Car Scenario› MAR 2,000 Ci of Plutonium-238› Urban environment› 2 m/s and 12 m/s wind speed from the South› Air Stability Category A and F› 200 lbs. of explosive
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Methods using HotSpotStep 1: Models
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Methods using HotSpotStep 2: Source Term
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Methods using HotSpotStep 3: Meteorology
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Methods using HotSpotStep 4: Output
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Using Google Earth: Plotting our source
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Modeling- Backpack Category F 2 m/s
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Modeling- Backpack Category F 2 m/s
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Table Output
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Results
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Modeling-Car Category F 12 m/s
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Table 1: Total Results
Scenario Stabilit
y ClassWind Speed(m/s)
Lbs of explosive
MAR(Curies)
Area of 1000 rem isopleths(km2)
Backpack A 2 20 2,000 0.076
Backpack A 12 20 2,000 0.019
Backpack F 2 20 2,000 0.14
Backpack F 12 20 2,000 0.017
Car A 2 200 2,000 0.037
Car A 12 200 2,000 0.015
Car F 2 200 2,000 0.046
Car F 12 200 2,000 0.008
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Conclusion
By changing the variables, we were able to model the most devastating scenario. The variables that caused the most destruction were wind speed at 2 m/s in a stable environment and a lower amount of explosive. This evidence supports all of the background information we learned about Air Dispersion before we modeled our scenarios.
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Sources
Cooper, C. David., and F. C. Alley. "Chapter 20 Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling." Air Pollution Control: a Design Approach. Third ed. Prospect Heights, IL: Waveland, 2002. 607-48. Print.
Burns, Casey. Overview of Plutonium and Its Health Effects (2002): 6-9. Web. 07 July 2011. <http://www.clarku.edu/departments/marsh/projects/community/plutonium.pdf>.
Homann, Steven G. HotSpot. Computer software. National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC). Vers. 2.07.1. 2 Mar. 2010. Web. <https://narac.llnl.gov/HotSpot/HotSpot.html>.
Lucas Oil Stadium. Photograph. Indianapolis. Stadiums of Pro Football. Web. 13 July 2011. <http://www.stadiumsofprofootball.com/afc/LucasOilStadium.htm>.
O'Neil, Ian. "As NASA's Plutonium Supply Dwindles, ESA Eyes Nuclear Energy Program : Discovery News." Discovery News: Earth, Space, Tech, Animals, History, Adventure, Human, Autos. Spaceflight Now, 09 July 2010. Web. 07 July 2011. <http://news.discovery.com/space/as-nasas-plutonium-supply-dwindles-esa-eyes-nuclear-energy-program.html>.
"Radiation Risk and Realities." United States Environmental Protection Agency. May 2007. Web. 4 July 2011. <http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/docs/402-k-07-006.pdf>.
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