© itto 2000 the international tropical timber organization forest products markets in the new...
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© ITTO 2000
THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
Forest Products Markets in the New
Millenium:Tropical Hardwoods
ECE Timber Committee Market Discussions
10 October 2000
S. Johnson, ITTO Secretariat
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Trends in ECE imports
• Logs and sawnwood more or less stable, but main markets shifting (northern Europe down, southern Europe up)
• Plywood stable or increasing in most markets
• SPWP from tropical countries increasing in all markets
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ECE Tropical Log Imports
2562
2041 2052
2764
2323 2400
2575
2062 2067
2783
2348
2417
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Volu
me,
100
0 m
3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
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ECE Tropical Sawnwood Imports
2436
18111992
25632306 2400
237
322323
355
3573602347
2165
2697
2954
26992796
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Vo
lum
e,
10
00
m3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
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ECE Tropical Veneer Imports
366332 349
245 262 250
70 53
6261
65
385 409 407
313
329
322
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Volu
me,
100
0 m
3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
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ECE Tropical Plywood Imports
1439 1311 1347 1484 1397 1375
1320 1459 1396
1559 1680 1700
2891 2916 2883
3199 3245 3245
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Volu
me,
100
0 m
3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
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Tropical Timber Trade, US$billions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
(dashed line = estimate)
Primary Secondary
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Main Asian Markets
• Japan housing starts stagnant at about 1.2 million last 3 years, total slightly up in first 8 months 2000 but wood houses down
• HQAL affecting market• Logs imports down about 8% this year,
sawn up about 5%, ply stable• China housing starts Jan-May up 40% on
1999, state bank mortgages +145% in 99, at least +100% in 2000
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Supply situation
• Africa - Cameroon log ban, log supply shifting to Congo, CAR, Liberia, Gabon (?)
• ITTO assisting harmonizing of C&I, setting up of PAFC
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Supply situation
• Asia - weakness of Euro hurting exporters to ECE
• Sabah ban on Selangan Batu exports • Sabah processing capacity about 7 times
long term sustainable cut• Malay log exports up 25% in 99• lots of (unsustainable?/illegal?) logs going
from Indonesia-Malaysia-China• Indonesia ply production likely to fall 0.5-
1.0 million m3 this year due to provincial unrest, log shortage
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Supply situation
• Latin America - Brazil monitoring mahogany exports more closely, all exports must be harvested as per management plan
• Peru banned all exports of mahogany and cedar temporarily, situation unclear
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Issues facing ITTO: Certification
• Auditing guidelines to be developed to complement ITTO C&I, will assist countries to implement
• Assisting Malaysia and Indonesia with NTCC and LEI schemes, Fiji and Ghana projects also funded
• Tropical countries not well served by currently available international certification schemes
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Breakdown of FSC Certified Forests
73%
12%
4%
1%1%11%
10%
Americas AfricaAsia/Oceania/S.Africa Asia-PacificEurope Latin America/Caribbean
ALL(17.7 m ha)
TROPICAL(2.1 m ha)
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Map of FSC Certified Forests
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Tropical Forest Certification Issues
•costs of attaining SFM and carrying out certification higher than in non-tropical forests
•ODA, FDI and market access to help achieve tropical SFM still lacking
•“green premium” (and market niche(s)) for certified timber small compared to cost of SFM/certification
•certification of products arising from forest conversion/plantation establishment
•certification of substitutes/life cycle analysis
•increasing trend towards SPWP
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Issues facing ITTO: Illegal Logging
• ITTO currently in negotiations with Indonesia, Malaysia and several African countries to address
• Need to distinguish between coordinated illegal felling for export, for domestic mills and for subsistence, different strategies needed for each
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THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
www.itto.or.jp