- icrat 2004 - dipl.-wirtsch.-ing. michael schultz dipl.-ing. susann lehmann
DESCRIPTION
Development of a computer-aided model for reliable terminal evacuation simulation – a statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behavior. - ICRAT 2004 - Dipl.-Wirtsch.-Ing. Michael Schultz Dipl.-Ing. Susann Lehmann Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Hartmut Fricke Zilina, 23.11.2004. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Development of a computer-aided model for reliable terminal evacuation simulation – a statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger
behavior
- ICRAT 2004 -
Dipl.-Wirtsch.-Ing. Michael SchultzDipl.-Ing. Susann Lehmann
Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. Hartmut Fricke
Zilina, 23.11.2004
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 2
Structure Of Presentation
1. Institute Of Aviation
2. Motivation
3. Motion Behavior Of People
4. Cellular Automaton Approach
5. Model Details
6. Conclusion And Perspective
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 3
1. Institute Of Aviation
• director of the institute: Professor Hartmut Fricke
• young team (9 assistants) of aviation experts and engineers
• key aspects of research:– Air Transport Infrastructure Planning– Air Transport System Technologies– Optimizing Ground Handling and Passenger Flow Processes– Capacity Analysis: Correlating Capacity and Safety
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 4
2. Motivation
• airport terminal– complex infrastructure ( passenger dispatch vs. leisure)
– high passenger frequency, capacity often nearly saturated
– accentuation of security conditions
– highest security/safety standards in transportation
terminal as a reference for granting security in buildings
• unpredictable human behavior in emergency cases
• identification of bottlenecks and comparison of possible evacuation strategies
• proposed security assessment systematic to validate strategies
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 5
3. Motion Behavior Of People- In Emergency Cases -
• The motion pattern of people in emergency cases differ heavily from normal, well-known motion patterns.
• An experiment in a Japanese supermarket shows the motion behavior under stress conditions [1]:
– 46,7 % uses the information of warning and information signs and follows properly staff instructions
– 26,3 % move away from impact zone and intend to leave the consequence area
– 16,7 % use the next reachable exit
– 3 % follow other persons
– 3 % avoid gathering
– 2,3 % prefer the "brightest" exit
– 1,7 % choose arbitrarily any door to escape
[1] Abe "Human Science of Panic", Brain Pub. Co., Tokyo, 1986
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 6
3. Motion Behavior Of People- In Emergency Cases -
• classification of escape behavior according to SCHNEIDER[2]
– approx. 10 - 15 % act rational and are able to lead other persons out of the hazard area
– approx. 70 % are astonished and composed, they can be led by clear instructions
– approx. 10 - 15 % act unpredictable, do freeze or start to stampede
[2] Schneider "Evakuierung bei Brandereignissen", lecture at Technische Akademie Esslingen,
Institute for Building Materials, Building Physics, and Fire Protection, Vienna University of Technology, 2004
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 7
4. Cellular Automaton Approach
• microscopic model (simulation of individuals)
• two dimensional
• spatial, time and state discrete
• regular lattice with Moore neighbourhood relationship
• one cell has two states empty, occupied
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 8
4. Cellular Automaton Approach- model description -
• one person per cell dimension 40 cm x 40 cm
• person moves one cell per time step (single speed model)
• max. walking speed according to WEIDMANN [3] vmax= 1,34 ms-1
• renunciation of acceleration, persons reach vmax within 0,5 s [4]
• time step t 0,3 s
[3] Weidmann "Transporttechnik der Fußgänger", Schriftenreihe des IVT, 90, Zürich, 1992
[4] Henderson "The Statistics of Crowd Fluids", p381, Nature 229, 1971
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 9
• independency of longitudinal p und transversal q motion components
• probability distribution by variance , mean value and probability
• explicit probability is given by
4. Cellular Automaton Approach- statistical model -
)(2
1 221 w
)(2
1 221 w
)(1 220 w
iIi
Iii
Iii
wi
wi
w
22 )(
1
jiij qpM
M-1 -1
M 0 -1
M 1 -1
M 0 -1
M 0 0
M 0 +1
M 1 -1
M 0 1
M 1 1
pi
qj
w
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 10
• variance p
and mean value p of longitudinal component p
• variance q
and mean value q of transversal component q
4. Cellular Automaton Approach- statistical model -
10 p
222
12
1
4
1ppp
0q
10 2 q
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 11
• overlapping of – spatial discrete cellular automaton statistical model– spatial discretized continuous model potential theory
• statistical model – changing of person motion behavior parameter
velocity, purposefulness
– position of obstacles– line of sight
• potential model– changing of person motion behavior parameter
repulsion, attraction effects due to signs, marks, walls
repulsion, attraction effects due to persons, traces
5. Model Details
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 12
using a layer structure to
describe scenarios, where each
layer contains specific information
example for layers:
• building structure
• obstacles and barriers
• guidance, evacuation system
• person traces (active walker)
5. Model Details - layer model -
1. layer
2. layer
3. layer
4. layer
n. layer
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 13
• tests of different evacuation strategies
• identification of safety parameters in addition to walking range and evacuation time
• recommendations for evacuation strategies (rescue management)
6. Conclusion And Perspective
A statistical approach to handle unpredictable passenger behaviour M. Schultz, S. Lehmann, Prof. H. Fricke 14
Thank you for your attention!
Contact: [email protected]