? how to tell south african development stories… …that enough people believe for the stories to...
TRANSCRIPT
? How to tell South African development stories…
…that enough people believe for the stories to be influential**
**sufficiently influential to move development trajectory to a climate compatible one ?
DDPP South Africa
How do we use DDDP methodology to tell a credible development story that is consistent with 2DC ?
1. Primarily, it has to be about South African residents2. It has to satisfy** interest groups to remain policy relevant3. It has to tell a story that interest groups can believe
**have not defined this, a first try would include the idea that… (a) members of interest groups HAVE to see themselves clearly in the story and (B) see themselves in an acceptable*** role
***significant efforts might be required to build acceptance based on building a shared understanding of external constraints
What do interest groups demand from “development” ?
The very minimum we need to deliver to remain relevant:1. Income (distribution)2. Employment (non-grant based income)3. Emissions pathway to avoid catastropheEXOGENOUS, our Visionmodels and expert judgment help paint credible pictures
4. Credible economic pathways that can deliver thesemodels and expert judgment help paint credible pictures
Phase 1 ONLY includes income** distribution
• …proxy for poverty reduction• …used to show other services possible– Housing, services– Transport
”development pathway”
**employment information not available
Typical mitigation data
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
Household fuel usage
ElectricityParaffinLPGBiomass WoodNatural GasCoal[P
J]
DASHBOARD – households
2010 2020 2030 2040 20500
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Household categories
Low Income Electrified Middle Income ElectrifiedHigh Income Electrified Low Income Non-ElectrifiedMiddle Income Non-Electrified
Mill
ions
of p
eopl
e in
cat
egor
y
DASHBOARD – households
given the above, and the emissions intensity of electricity, household emissions pathway can be calculated
Phase 2 adds skills profile
It’s about:- people-(and economic structure)
14,7 million people registered for tax 3,3 million taxpayers paid almost 99% of income tax16 million receive grants
+40%
2015 2050 20500
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
TWO skills futures
High skilled Semi-skilled Unskilled
Two thirds un-employed
IndicativeStats
Match skills to economic sectors
THREE relevant matches:High skills high energy intensiveHigh skills low energy intensiveLow skills high energy intensive
• Show how all people can be employed in an economy with a credible economic structure– eSAGE linked to SATIM
An aside: who works in South Africa ?
Another aside: where is South Africa ?(…and do we disbelieve models if they tell us difficult things ? )
Source: United Nations, Get the data
ditto
Is it worth fine tuning if you’re on the wrong station ?