© h. maurer 1 how to deal with the potential breakdown of computer networks invited presentation...
TRANSCRIPT
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How to Deal with the Potential Breakdown of Computer Networks
Invited Presentation ED-MEDIA 2005Montreal, July 2, 2005
Hermann MaurerGraz University of Technologyand JOANNEUM RESEARCHGraz/ Austria
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Computerization is enabling and speeding up this process and introduces a new phenomenon:
Division of labor and globalization extend more and more also to non- material products (information, software, publishing, knowledge,…)
We live in an age of extensive division of labor
and globalization.
Good example: WWW (Wikipedia!) and digital libraries.
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Advantages of Globalization
Access to many things that otherwise we would not have
More efficient production (climate, raw-material,…),
Certain efforts are only possible through massivecollaboration:
The ‚animal‘ humankind is able to do things small groups of individuals could not do
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Disadvantages of GlobalizationPotential exploitation (without consideration for people and environment,…)
Arbitrary shift of production facilities (unemployment, waste,…)
Increases transport (i.e. dependency on oil which is a danger for peace and environment!)
Globalization creates dangerous dependencies
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... and then the Internet collapsed one day…
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Could it really happen that computers and computer networks fail in large regions for prolonged
periods?
Yes. The danger is particularly high due to a targeted attack. It is a miracle that no serious case of cyber-attack has occurred yet!
Note interconnection between power grid andcomputers / computer networks ! Power gride.g. out for 6 weeks in Auckland in 2002!
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The latest book inmy “Xperts-Series”describes exactlysuch a scenario.
www.iicm.edu/Xperts
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The Telekinetic(Maurer)
The Paradoppelganger(Maurer)
The Parawarriors(Maurer)
The Paranet(Maurer)
Fighting big Brother(Maurer)
eSmog!(Backhaus)
The Paracommunicator (Lennon)
The Parashield(Osborne)
The XPERTS- Saga
Mindwave(Shearer)
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Some figures
Incidents 2003: 137.729http://www.cert.org/stats/
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Further figures
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Who believes in a dramatic collapse within the next ten years?
“Some 66% agreed with the following prediction: At least one devastating attack will occur in the next 10 years on the networked infrastructure or the nationwide power grid” (PEW Report on “The Future of the Internet”, January 9, 2005)
Persons interviewed included e.g. Vincet Cerf, Esther Dyson, Bob Metcalfe, Dan Gillmore, Simon Garfinkel, Howard Rheingold, David Weinberger, usw.
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Report for the PresidentFebruary 2005
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Consequences of complete breakdown are catastrophic: clear
How can we avoid them?
(1) Increase stability of computers and networks!
(2) Globalization where necessary, but regionalization wherever reasonable
(3) Reduce terrorism. One aspect is to reduce injustice in world as one of the reasons for terrorism. Help third world with IT
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“Balance or Destruction” F.J. Radermacher
Basic idea: future increase in productionis possible without further damaging the environment. This growth has to be distributed unevenly.
Reduce injustice in the world
“Global Marshall Plan”
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Help in the third world using IT
Spread new local knowledge world wideExample: How to boil water with limited fuel
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Boiling water
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Help in the third world with IT
Spread new local knowledge world –wideOther examples are e.g.can-houses, sandbags, chistosoma,…
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Globalization where necessary, regionalization where reasonable
e.g.:“Asymmetric distance tax” based on GNP:--- increases stability through self sufficiency--- supports new distribution of wealth--- supports regionalization and natural life--- also holds for non-material aspects
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Computers und networks must become more secure (stable)!
Operating systems and basic software on chips
Write-once storage (may be with mechanical override)
e.g. radical approach:Give up John von Neumann computer concept
Use network only when needed
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Other approaches
Thin clients in networks where much is done inservers
Redundant networks and addressing schemes
Variety of operating systems/ configurable OSCroquet project: www.opencroquet.org
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Other approaches
Use of crytopgraphic co-processors
Like in:www.trustedcomputinggroup.org
Can possibly lead to unwanted control www.cl.cam.ac.uk/~rja14/tcpa-faq.html
www.iicm.edu/Xperts
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F.J. Radermacher in “Balance or Destruction” talks about the balance
between countries.
We need this, but we also need a healthy balance between globalization and regionalization, and a clean solution for secure computing without the dangers inherent in “Trusted Computing”.
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What will YOU do after this talk to help improvethe stability of our systems?
At least--- tell everyone:
In a very globalized networked society we are more vulnerable than is good for us, unless we start to increase the safety of our systems right now!
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Just think: what would happen if electricity fails for 6 weeks in the central USA and a 1400 miles
radius around it in, say, January 2007?
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Thanks for your attention!H.Maurer
URLs:
www.know-center.at www.hyperwave.comwww.iicm.edu/maurer
More on related stuff: www.iicm.edu/Xperts
email: [email protected]