from: turner harrison

From: STANDEN Kathie [[email protected]]Sent: Friday, 20 April 2018 3:30 PMTo: JOLLY StephanieSubject: Fwd: Electric Vehicles in QueenslandAttachments: image001.png; ATT00001.htm; image002.jpg; ATT00002.htm; 180308 ODG Scoping Paper - ElectricVehicles.docx; ATT00003.htm

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: TURNER Harrison <[email protected]>Date: 20 April 2018 at 14:30:23 AESTTo: BARR Benn <[email protected]>, STANDEN Kathie <[email protected]>, LEAVER Gayle<[email protected]>

Cc: Energy ODDG <[email protected]>Subject: Electric Vehicles in Queensland

Afternoon All

James has asked that I coordinate some research on how electric vehicles will impact the state’s electricity system, as well as the greenhouse gasdividends associated with electric vehicle uptake.

Attached is an outline of the research task and some preliminary ‘scoping’ work I have pulled together for the analysis. Benn, you will note that thecontent is in many parts based on the 2016 AEMO paper you shared with James earlier this year.

At this stage, it would be excellent to get your sense of:

· What might be missing from both the scope and preliminary analysis

· Whether there are any assumptions made in the paper that are not accurate

· What capacity your team/s would have to contribute to further analysis?

There is no specific timeframe for this task, although I do not that Benn and others are meeting with James on 3 May to discuss energy policy

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generally. Some commentary before then would be excellent.

Please feel free to give me a buzz if you would like to discuss.

Many thanksHarry

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Electric Vehicle Evaluation

Internal Scoping Paper – Not Government Policy

March 2018

ODG Working Draft (Version 0.1)

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This publication has been compiled by Harrison Turner of the Office of the Director-General, Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy.

© State of Queensland, 2018

The Queensland Government supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of its information. The copyright in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.

Under this licence you are free, without having to seek our permission, to use this publication in accordance with the licence terms.

You must keep intact the copyright notice and attribute the State of Queensland as the source of the publication.

Note: Some content in this publication may have different licence terms as indicated.

For more information on this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The Queensland Government shall not be liable for technical or other errors or omissions contained herein. The reader/user accepts all risks and responsibility for losses, damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from using this information.

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Research TaskThis document contains scoping research undertaken by the Office of the Director-General (ODG), Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy (DNRME) to inform further analysis of the:

1. Impact of electric vehicle uptake in Queensland on energy demand;

2. Impact of electric vehicle uptake in Queensland on greenhouse gas emissions;

3. Policy levers available to the Queensland Government to manage these impacts.

This paper sets out the assumptions and current knowledge pertinent to these questions at greater length below. The main matters to be considered for further analysis are:

1. Regarding electric vehicles in the Queensland fleet:

a. What proportion of the Queensland fleet are electric or hybrid vehicles?

b. How will this change?

c. What is driving (and restricting) demand?

d. What alternatives fuels and vehicles?

2. Regarding energy demand and supply:

a. What technologies are available to power electric vehicles, and what is emerging?

b. What is the impact of electric vehicle recharging on the Queensland electricity supply system:

i. Currently;

ii. If all power is sourced for the grid (assuming this is not the current state);

iii. If all power is sourced from solar PV (assuming this is not the current state);

iv. If power is sourced from the grid and solar PV, including scenarios where solar PV is excess to, sufficient and insufficient for energy demand; and

3. Regarding greenhouse gas emissions:

a. What are the prospective greenhouse gas dividends?

b. How do they compare to other alternative fuel and vehicles

c. Are there other factors relevant to greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles?

d. What is the relevance of current and emerging battery technology?

4. What policy levers are available to the Queensland Government to influence the impact of electric vehicles on electricity demand and greenhouse gas emissions?

5. Are there any tensions or divergences between electric vehicle, transport and climate change policy in Queensland?

6. Other matters determined at the discretion of the research team.

Electric Vehicle EvaluationDRAFT Scoping Paper: ODG, DNRME i

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Table of contents

1 Background.................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Purpose of this paper ...................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Key Terms: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas and generation ...................................................... 1

2 Electric Vehicles in the Queensland Fleet .................................................................................. 2

2.1 Current and Projected Electric Vehicle Adoption ............................................................................ 2

2.2 What is driving (and restricting) electric vehicle demand?.............................................................. 2

3 Electric Vehicles and Energy Demand........................................................................................ 3

3.1 Forecasted EV Consumption .......................................................................................................... 3

3.2 Factors Impacting Total Energy Consumption ................................................................................ 4

3.3 Is total energy consumption the whole story? ................................................................................. 4

4 Electric Vehicles and Greenhouse Gas Abatement................................................................... 5

4.1 Carbon Dioxide Dividend................................................................................................................. 5

4.2 What about batteries? ..................................................................................................................... 5

5 Policy Levers to Impact Electric Vehicles ......................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Appendix................................................................................................................................................. 1

References.............................................................................................................................................. 3

Electric Vehicle EvaluationDRAFT Scoping Paper: ODG, DNRME ii

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1 Background1.1 Purpose of this paperThis paper outlines preliminary analysis and assumptions relevant to the research task described above, which is to consider the impact of electric vehicle (EV) uptake on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in Queensland now and over the next 10 years.

1.2 Key Terms: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas and generationAn electric vehicle (EV) is a vehicle propelled by an electric motor, rather than an internal combustion engine. These and other relevant vehicle types are tabled below.

A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs infrared radiation, some of which is released to earth or otherwise trapped in the earth’s atmosphere. This effect, the ‘greenhouse effect’, is a major contributing cause to climate change. Most energy resources emit greenhouse gasses over the course of their lifecycle, to differing degrees, and this is why fuel and energy technologies are known to have different ‘greenhouse’, ‘environmental’ and ‘sustainability’ (dis)benefits.

The greenhouse gas benefits of EVs vis petrol cars depend largely on how the electricity is generated. Electricity in Queensland is generated from various sources including coal, gas, biomass, water, wind and solar. Another important factor is the battery used to power the EV, and whether the EV emits other particulates.

Table 1 – What’s an electric vehicle?

Vehicle Type Definition

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

These vehicles are powered exclusively by energy stored in on-board batteries, which are usually charged via the grid.

Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICE)

These vehicles are powered by a standard internal combustion engine using petrol, diesel or gas. Most privately owned vehicles are ICEs.

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

These vehicles have both an electric engine and ICE. The ICE is typically the primary power source for propulsion.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

These vehicles also combine an electric engine and ICE. However, the electric engine in a PHEV is able to plug in to the grid, making the electric engine the primary propulsion power source.

Hydrogen Vehicles (HVs)

These vehicles may be powered by a hydrogen fuel cell, or burn hydrogen in an ICE. There are no commercially available HVs in Australia, although a Hyundai model is slated for release in 2018.

Natural Gas Vehicles These are ICEs that use natural gas, including compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG) and biofuels like E10.

Electric Vehicle EvaluationDRAFT Scoping Paper: ODG, DNRME 1

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2 Electric Vehicles in the Queensland Fleet2.1 Current and Projected Electric Vehicle AdoptionTables below are based on predictions made by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) (2016), verified by other contemporary analyses. Figure 1 plots projected EV uptake in Queensland through to 2036, noting that projections for Queensland are close to the national median.

Figure 1 – EV uptake in Queensland: EVs on the road, as a proportion of total fleet (%)

Source: Adapted from AEMO 2016a. Relevant data is tabulated in the Appendix.

2.2 What is driving (and restricting) electric vehicle demand?Some relevant policy and market factors are set out below – all are factored into uptake predictions.

Table 2 – What’s driving EV demand?Factor Impact Notes

Electricity and fuel prices High Difference between petrol and electricity prices, esp. on relative regional uptake

Alternative fuels and vehicles High Market penetration of other alternative fuels and vehicles

Fuel Efficiency and Vehicle Emission Standards (Cth)

Mid-High Stimulates demand for alternative fuel vehicles, including EVs

Priority lanes, parking permits for EVs Low-mid Not slated for Australia

Carbon Price Mid-High Direct and de facto carbon pricing stimulates alternative vehicle demand. Impact on EVs vis other vehicles and fuels unclear.

Model availability High AEMO modelling assumes range expansion

Vehicle range and efficiency High BEVs in particular have relatively limited range, although this is improving.

Procurement policy High Government, corporate procurement significant proportion of Australian fleet.

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3 Electric Vehicles and Energy Demand3.1 Forecasted EV ConsumptionAEMO’s analysis indicates that EVs will not cause any increase in peak energy demand anywhere in Australia through to at least 2036, and will increase total annual consumption in Queensland by no more than 4%. Figures 2 and 3 below indicate forecasted EV electricity consumption in Queensland, assuming EVs are powered exclusively through the grid. Most notable is the fact that even a ‘shock’ scenario of strong uptake would only increase consumption by 6% come 2036.

Figure 2 – Queensland: EV consumption in gigawatts per hour

Source: Adapted from AEMO 2016. Relevant data is tabulated in the Appendix.

Figure 3 – Queensland: EV consumption relative to total consumption in gigawatts per hour


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3.2 Factors Impacting Total Energy ConsumptionIncreased electric vehicle uptake will give rise to additional electricity demand, which in turn will affect the electricity system. Further to EV penetration (above 2.2), some factors likely to impact EV consumption are tabled below.

Factor Impact* Notes

Charging technology and infrastructure

High Improvements in regenerative driving, availability of solar-charged EVs, and dedicated off-grid charging infrastructure are major factors in total EV consumption.

Energy Queensland plan to roll out 18-plus charging stations along the Queensland coast, from Cairns through to the Gold Coast. They are investigating supplying the stations via renewable energy.

Battery efficiency High Battery technology developments may reduce energy demand

Driving and charging behaviour High Increase in travel distance (and comfortable range of vehicles) will increase energy demand, and potentially timing of maximum EV demand (as drivers recharge mid-trip)

Tariff settings High Structure, rate of tariffs flagged as significant ‘known unknown’ in AEMO analysis

Vehicle parameters Medium Vehicle aerodynamics (mass, drag), power required for acceleration, auxiliary power draws all impact energy demand

Driving style and conditions Low-Medium Road incline, road quality will become more significant as EVs used to travel greater distances

Operating conditions Low Temperature in particular (extreme lows and highs) may reduce battery capacity

*The table indicates the impact on relative EV energy consumption (i.e. impact might be ‘high’ but still only lead

to a small increase in EV consumption as a proportion of total consumption)

3.3 Is total energy consumption the whole story?AEMO analysis indicates that EVs will only have a modest impact on total energy consumption. According to predicted uptake- and based on existing technology - current generation, transmission and distribution networks should have capacity to accommodate EVs. While the grid can theoretically cope, AEMO projections do not shed light on what challenges and opportunities exist at the household and neighbourhood levels. It may be that households and neighbourhoods with low(er)-voltage networks and/or smaller transformers may not be able to cope with PEVs.


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4 Electric Vehicles and Greenhouse Gas Abatement4.1 Carbon Dioxide DividendThe Commonwealth Government’s Green Vehicle Guide (2018) webpage indicates that the average new light vehicle in Australia emits approximately 188 grams of CO2 per km travelled. Popularefficient models like the Toyota Corolla and Mazda 3 Hatch respectively produce 96 g/km and 129 g/km CO2. Current model hybrid electric vehicles produce closer to 80 g/km, excluding upstream emissions from electricity generation.

The CO2 emissions attached to EVs depend largely on their power source. An analysis by Jarvinen et al (2012) suggests that an EV charged using Australia’s 2010 average generation mix would have produced approximately 85-95 g/km, comparable to efficient light ICE vehicles and hybrid EVs. The grid, however, is de-carbonising at a faster rate than the petrol fleet (Jarvinen et al 2012; Office of the Chief Economist 2016). The depth of and timeline for decarbonisation of the grid is unclear.Notwithstanding this, energy providers are beginning to offer clean energy products; an example is AGL’s GreenPower which offers 10%, 20% and 100% renewable power supply to household consumers.

The graph below estimates CO2 reduction where AEMO-project neutral EV uptake is powered completely through the grid, 90% through the grid with 10% from renewables, 80% through the grid with 20% renewables and 50% each from the grid and renewables. In all cases, the graph assumes the generation mix for the grid remains constant at the 2010 level. The graph does not compare EVs to other alternative fuels and vehicles.

Figure 4 - Reduction in Australian Fleet CO2 Emissions, assuming neutral EV uptake

4.2 What about batteries?Next-gen battery technologies with high storage capacity are core to many EV manufacturers’ market penetration strategy. Lead-acid, nickel and lithium-ion batteries are among the primary (current) types of technology available. The batteries, packs, other materials and associated manufacturing and disposal processes all have significant life cycle environmental impacts. These factors demand analysis when considering the environmental benefits of EVs vis ICEs and other alternative fuel vehicles.

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4.3 Factors Impacting Greenhouse Gas DividendsFactor Impact* Notes

Generation mix of grid High A greener mix of energy sources for the grid will also improve EV GHG profile

Green charging infrastructure High Availability of dedicated green charging stations

Battery technology High Emissions associated with battery materials and production


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AppendixTable 1 – EV uptake: EVs on the road, as a proportion of total fleet (%)

Year Strong (Qld) Neutral (Qld) Neutral (Aus) Weak (Qld)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

2018 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

2019 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.2

2020 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.2

2021 2.1 0.9 1.1 0.4

2022 3.5 1.3 1.6 0.5

2023 5.1 1.8 2.1 0.7

2024 7.0 2.5 2.8 0.9

2025 8.9 3.2 3.6 1.2

2026 10.9 4.5 4.9 1.5

2027 12.9 5.7 6.2 1.9

2028 15.0 7.1 7.5 2.3

2029 17.4 8.4 8.9 2.7

2030 20.2 9.9 10.4 3.8

2031 23.3 11.5 12.0 4.9

2032 25.3 12.5 12.9 5.7

2033 27.3 13.6 14.0 6.6

2034 29.2 14.9 15.1 7.5

2035 31.3 16.3 16.4 8.4

2036 33.3 17.8 17.7 9.3


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Table 2 – EV Consumption in Queensland, in Watts p/hour

Year Strong Neutral (Most Likely) Weak

2016 1,500 864 498

2017 9,415 3,529 1,246

2018 22,712 8,599 3,177

2019 46,975 18,301 7,072

2020 75,847 29,649 11,338

2021 124,140 48,690 16,984

2022 231,746 77,625 26,468

2023 366,464 118,267 41,187

2024 528,145 172,208 61,557

2025 705,059 236,634 86,841

2026 890,081 355,073 116,221

2027 1,078,301 475,092 148,811

2028 1,270,586 597,046 184,330

2029 1,488,601 721,048 222,594

2030 1,730,601 847,705 316,667

2031 1,977,888 973,232 412,305

2032 2,225,193 1,096,446 508,684

2033 2,470,947 1,231,446 695,831

2034 2,713,074 1,376,533 702,852

2035 2,949,399 1,532,853 800,340

2036 3,176,726 1,699,417 897,335


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ReferencesAustralian Energy Market Operator. 2016. AEMO Insights, August 2016: Electric Vehicles. Accessed March 2018. Available at <https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report>.

Jarvinen, Justine, Orton, Fiona and Nelson, Tim. 2012. Electric Vehicles in Australia’s National Electricity Market: Energy Market and Policy Implications. The Electricity Journal 25(2), 63-87.

Office of the Chief Economist. 2016. Australian Energy Update. Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (Cth). Available at <https://industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Documents/aes/2016-australian-energy-statistics.pdf>.

Commonwealth of Australia. 2018. Green Vehicle Guide. Available at <https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/>.


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Harrison TurnerSenior Project OfficerOffice of the Director-GeneralDepartment of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy

P: (07) 3199 7326 E: [email protected]: Level 36, 1 William Street, Brisbane QLD 4000

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From: Energy ODDG [[email protected]]Sent: Friday, 20 April 2018 4:53 PMTo: WRIGHT DavidSubject: FW: Electric Vehicles in QueenslandAttachments: 180308 ODG Scoping Paper - Electric Vehicles.docx

From: LEAVER Gayle Sent: Friday, 20 April 2018 4:30 PMTo: BARR BennCc: Energy ODDGSubject: FW: Electric Vehicles in Queensland Will need to discuss who can do this work

Gayle LeaverGeneral ManagerEnergy Industry Policy | Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy

P: 07 3166 0170 M: E: [email protected]: Level 8, 1 William Street, Brisbane Q 4000 | PO Box 15456, City EastBrisbane Q 4000

W: www.dnrm.qld.gov.au

From: TURNER Harrison Sent: Friday, 20 April 2018 2:30 PMTo: BARR Benn; STANDEN Kathie; LEAVER GayleCc: Energy ODDGSubject: Electric Vehicles in Queensland Afternoon All James has asked that I coordinate some research on how electric vehicles will impact the state’s electricity system, as well asthe greenhouse gas dividends associated with electric vehicle uptake. Attached is an outline of the research task and some preliminary ‘scoping’ work I have pulled together for the analysis. Benn,you will note that the content is in many parts based on the 2016 AEMO paper you shared with James earlier this year.

73(2)Irrelevant

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At this stage, it would be excellent to get your sense of:

• What might be missing from both the scope and preliminary analysis

• Whether there are any assumptions made in the paper that are not accurate

• What capacity your team/s would have to contribute to further analysis?

There is no specific timeframe for this task, although I do not that Benn and others are meeting with James on 3 May to discussenergy policy generally. Some commentary before then would be excellent. Please feel free to give me a buzz if you would like to discuss.

Many thanksHarry

Harrison TurnerSenior Project OfficerOffice of the Director-GeneralDepartment of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy

P: (07) 3199 7326 E: [email protected]: Level 36, 1 William Street, Brisbane QLD 4000

PiD Logo for DNRME

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Electric Vehicle Evaluation

Internal Scoping Paper – Not Government Policy

March 2018

ODG Working Draft (Version 0.1)

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This publication has been compiled by Harrison Turner of the Office of the Director-General, Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy.

© State of Queensland, 2018

The Queensland Government supports and encourages the dissemination and exchange of its information. The copyright in this publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence.

Under this licence you are free, without having to seek our permission, to use this publication in accordance with the licence terms.

You must keep intact the copyright notice and attribute the State of Queensland as the source of the publication.

Note: Some content in this publication may have different licence terms as indicated.

For more information on this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. The Queensland Government shall not be liable for technical or other errors or omissions contained herein. The reader/user accepts all risks and responsibility for losses, damages, costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from using this information.

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Research TaskThis document contains scoping research undertaken by the Office of the Director-General (ODG), Department of Natural Resources, Mines and Energy (DNRME) to inform further analysis of the:

1. Impact of electric vehicle uptake in Queensland on energy demand;

2. Impact of electric vehicle uptake in Queensland on greenhouse gas emissions;

3. Policy levers available to the Queensland Government to manage these impacts.

This paper sets out the assumptions and current knowledge pertinent to these questions at greater length below. The main matters to be considered for further analysis are:

1. Regarding electric vehicles in the Queensland fleet:

a. What proportion of the Queensland fleet are electric or hybrid vehicles?

b. How will this change?

c. What is driving (and restricting) demand?

d. What alternatives fuels and vehicles?

2. Regarding energy demand and supply:

a. What technologies are available to power electric vehicles, and what is emerging?

b. What is the impact of electric vehicle recharging on the Queensland electricity supply system:

i. Currently;

ii. If all power is sourced for the grid (assuming this is not the current state);

iii. If all power is sourced from solar PV (assuming this is not the current state);

iv. If power is sourced from the grid and solar PV, including scenarios where solar PV is excess to, sufficient and insufficient for energy demand; and

3. Regarding greenhouse gas emissions:

a. What are the prospective greenhouse gas dividends?

b. How do they compare to other alternative fuel and vehicles

c. Are there other factors relevant to greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles?

d. What is the relevance of current and emerging battery technology?

4. What policy levers are available to the Queensland Government to influence the impact of electric vehicles on electricity demand and greenhouse gas emissions?

5. Are there any tensions or divergences between electric vehicle, transport and climate change policy in Queensland?

6. Other matters determined at the discretion of the research team.

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Table of contents

1 Background.................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Purpose of this paper ...................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Key Terms: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas and generation ...................................................... 1

2 Electric Vehicles in the Queensland Fleet .................................................................................. 2

2.1 Current and Projected Electric Vehicle Adoption ............................................................................ 2

2.2 What is driving (and restricting) electric vehicle demand?.............................................................. 2

3 Electric Vehicles and Energy Demand........................................................................................ 3

3.1 Forecasted EV Consumption .......................................................................................................... 3

3.2 Factors Impacting Total Energy Consumption ................................................................................ 4

3.3 Is total energy consumption the whole story? ................................................................................. 4

4 Electric Vehicles and Greenhouse Gas Abatement................................................................... 5

4.1 Carbon Dioxide Dividend................................................................................................................. 5

4.2 What about batteries? ..................................................................................................................... 5

5 Policy Levers to Impact Electric Vehicles ......................................Error! Bookmark not defined.

Appendix................................................................................................................................................. 1

References.............................................................................................................................................. 3

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1 Background1.1 Purpose of this paperThis paper outlines preliminary analysis and assumptions relevant to the research task described above, which is to consider the impact of electric vehicle (EV) uptake on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in Queensland now and over the next 10 years.

1.2 Key Terms: Electric vehicles, greenhouse gas and generationAn electric vehicle (EV) is a vehicle propelled by an electric motor, rather than an internal combustion engine. These and other relevant vehicle types are tabled below.

A greenhouse gas is a gas that absorbs infrared radiation, some of which is released to earth or otherwise trapped in the earth’s atmosphere. This effect, the ‘greenhouse effect’, is a major contributing cause to climate change. Most energy resources emit greenhouse gasses over the course of their lifecycle, to differing degrees, and this is why fuel and energy technologies are known to have different ‘greenhouse’, ‘environmental’ and ‘sustainability’ (dis)benefits.

The greenhouse gas benefits of EVs vis petrol cars depend largely on how the electricity is generated. Electricity in Queensland is generated from various sources including coal, gas, biomass, water, wind and solar. Another important factor is the battery used to power the EV, and whether the EV emits other particulates.

Table 1 – What’s an electric vehicle?

Vehicle Type Definition

Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

These vehicles are powered exclusively by energy stored in on-board batteries, which are usually charged via the grid.

Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICE)

These vehicles are powered by a standard internal combustion engine using petrol, diesel or gas. Most privately owned vehicles are ICEs.

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

These vehicles have both an electric engine and ICE. The ICE is typically the primary power source for propulsion.

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

These vehicles also combine an electric engine and ICE. However, the electric engine in a PHEV is able to plug in to the grid, making the electric engine the primary propulsion power source.

Hydrogen Vehicles (HVs)

These vehicles may be powered by a hydrogen fuel cell, or burn hydrogen in an ICE. There are no commercially available HVs in Australia, although a Hyundai model is slated for release in 2018.

Natural Gas Vehicles These are ICEs that use natural gas, including compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG) and biofuels like E10.


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2 Electric Vehicles in the Queensland Fleet2.1 Current and Projected Electric Vehicle AdoptionTables below are based on predictions made by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) (2016), verified by other contemporary analyses. Figure 1 plots projected EV uptake in Queensland through to 2036, noting that projections for Queensland are close to the national median.

Figure 1 – EV uptake in Queensland: EVs on the road, as a proportion of total fleet (%)

Source: Adapted from AEMO 2016a. Relevant data is tabulated in the Appendix.

2.2 What is driving (and restricting) electric vehicle demand?Some relevant policy and market factors are set out below – all are factored into uptake predictions.

Table 2 – What’s driving EV demand?Factor Impact Notes

Electricity and fuel prices High Difference between petrol and electricity prices, esp. on relative regional uptake

Alternative fuels and vehicles High Market penetration of other alternative fuels and vehicles

Fuel Efficiency and Vehicle Emission Standards (Cth)

Mid-High Stimulates demand for alternative fuel vehicles, including EVs

Priority lanes, parking permits for EVs Low-mid Not slated for Australia

Carbon Price Mid-High Direct and de facto carbon pricing stimulates alternative vehicle demand. Impact on EVs vis other vehicles and fuels unclear.

Model availability High AEMO modelling assumes range expansion

Vehicle range and efficiency High BEVs in particular have relatively limited range, although this is improving.

Procurement policy High Government, corporate procurement significant proportion of Australian fleet.

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3 Electric Vehicles and Energy Demand3.1 Forecasted EV ConsumptionAEMO’s analysis indicates that EVs will not cause any increase in peak energy demand anywhere in Australia through to at least 2036, and will increase total annual consumption in Queensland by no more than 4%. Figures 2 and 3 below indicate forecasted EV electricity consumption in Queensland, assuming EVs are powered exclusively through the grid. Most notable is the fact that even a ‘shock’ scenario of strong uptake would only increase consumption by 6% come 2036.

Figure 2 – Queensland: EV consumption in gigawatts per hour


Figure 3 – Queensland: EV consumption relative to total consumption in gigawatts per hour


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3.2 Factors Impacting Total Energy ConsumptionIncreased electric vehicle uptake will give rise to additional electricity demand, which in turn will affect the electricity system. Further to EV penetration (above 2.2), some factors likely to impact EV consumption are tabled below.

Factor Impact* Notes

Charging technology and infrastructure

High Improvements in regenerative driving, availability of solar-charged EVs, and dedicated off-grid charging infrastructure are major factors in total EV consumption.

Energy Queensland plan to roll out 18-plus charging stations along the Queensland coast, from Cairns through to the Gold Coast. They are investigating supplying the stations via renewable energy.

Battery efficiency High Battery technology developments may reduce energy demand

Driving and charging behaviour High Increase in travel distance (and comfortable range of vehicles) will increase energy demand, and potentially timing of maximum EV demand (as drivers recharge mid-trip)

Tariff settings High Structure, rate of tariffs flagged as significant ‘known unknown’ in AEMO analysis

Vehicle parameters Medium Vehicle aerodynamics (mass, drag), power required for acceleration, auxiliary power draws all impact energy demand

Driving style and conditions Low-Medium Road incline, road quality will become more significant as EVs used to travel greater distances

Operating conditions Low Temperature in particular (extreme lows and highs) may reduce battery capacity

*The table indicates the impact on relative EV energy consumption (i.e. impact might be ‘high’ but still only lead

to a small increase in EV consumption as a proportion of total consumption)

3.3 Is total energy consumption the whole story?AEMO analysis indicates that EVs will only have a modest impact on total energy consumption. According to predicted uptake- and based on existing technology - current generation, transmission and distribution networks should have capacity to accommodate EVs. While the grid can theoretically cope, AEMO projections do not shed light on what challenges and opportunities exist at the household and neighbourhood levels. It may be that households and neighbourhoods with low(er)-voltage networks and/or smaller transformers may not be able to cope with PEVs.


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4 Electric Vehicles and Greenhouse Gas Abatement4.1 Carbon Dioxide DividendThe Commonwealth Government’s Green Vehicle Guide (2018) webpage indicates that the average new light vehicle in Australia emits approximately 188 grams of CO2 per km travelled. Popularefficient models like the Toyota Corolla and Mazda 3 Hatch respectively produce 96 g/km and 129 g/km CO2. Current model hybrid electric vehicles produce closer to 80 g/km, excluding upstream emissions from electricity generation.

The CO2 emissions attached to EVs depend largely on their power source. An analysis by Jarvinen et al (2012) suggests that an EV charged using Australia’s 2010 average generation mix would have produced approximately 85-95 g/km, comparable to efficient light ICE vehicles and hybrid EVs. The grid, however, is de-carbonising at a faster rate than the petrol fleet (Jarvinen et al 2012; Office of the Chief Economist 2016). The depth of and timeline for decarbonisation of the grid is unclear.Notwithstanding this, energy providers are beginning to offer clean energy products; an example is AGL’s GreenPower which offers 10%, 20% and 100% renewable power supply to household consumers.

The graph below estimates CO2 reduction where AEMO-project neutral EV uptake is powered completely through the grid, 90% through the grid with 10% from renewables, 80% through the grid with 20% renewables and 50% each from the grid and renewables. In all cases, the graph assumes the generation mix for the grid remains constant at the 2010 level. The graph does not compare EVs to other alternative fuels and vehicles.

Figure 4 - Reduction in Australian Fleet CO2 Emissions, assuming neutral EV uptake

4.2 What about batteries?Next-gen battery technologies with high storage capacity are core to many EV manufacturers’ market penetration strategy. Lead-acid, nickel and lithium-ion batteries are among the primary (current) types of technology available. The batteries, packs, other materials and associated manufacturing and disposal processes all have significant life cycle environmental impacts. These factors demand analysis when considering the environmental benefits of EVs vis ICEs and other alternative fuel vehicles.

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4.3 Factors Impacting Greenhouse Gas DividendsFactor Impact* Notes

Generation mix of grid High A greener mix of energy sources for the grid will also improve EV GHG profile

Green charging infrastructure High Availability of dedicated green charging stations

Battery technology High Emissions associated with battery materials and production


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AppendixTable 1 – EV uptake: EVs on the road, as a proportion of total fleet (%)

Year Strong (Qld) Neutral (Qld) Neutral (Aus) Weak (Qld)

2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2017 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0

2018 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1

2019 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.2

2020 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.2

2021 2.1 0.9 1.1 0.4

2022 3.5 1.3 1.6 0.5

2023 5.1 1.8 2.1 0.7

2024 7.0 2.5 2.8 0.9

2025 8.9 3.2 3.6 1.2

2026 10.9 4.5 4.9 1.5

2027 12.9 5.7 6.2 1.9

2028 15.0 7.1 7.5 2.3

2029 17.4 8.4 8.9 2.7

2030 20.2 9.9 10.4 3.8

2031 23.3 11.5 12.0 4.9

2032 25.3 12.5 12.9 5.7

2033 27.3 13.6 14.0 6.6

2034 29.2 14.9 15.1 7.5

2035 31.3 16.3 16.4 8.4

2036 33.3 17.8 17.7 9.3


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Table 2 – EV Consumption in Queensland, in Watts p/hour

Year Strong Neutral (Most Likely) Weak

2016 1,500 864 498

2017 9,415 3,529 1,246

2018 22,712 8,599 3,177

2019 46,975 18,301 7,072

2020 75,847 29,649 11,338

2021 124,140 48,690 16,984

2022 231,746 77,625 26,468

2023 366,464 118,267 41,187

2024 528,145 172,208 61,557

2025 705,059 236,634 86,841

2026 890,081 355,073 116,221

2027 1,078,301 475,092 148,811

2028 1,270,586 597,046 184,330

2029 1,488,601 721,048 222,594

2030 1,730,601 847,705 316,667

2031 1,977,888 973,232 412,305

2032 2,225,193 1,096,446 508,684

2033 2,470,947 1,231,446 695,831

2034 2,713,074 1,376,533 702,852

2035 2,949,399 1,532,853 800,340

2036 3,176,726 1,699,417 897,335


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ReferencesAustralian Energy Market Operator. 2016. AEMO Insights, August 2016: Electric Vehicles. Accessed March 2018. Available at <https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Planning-and-forecasting/National-Electricity-Forecasting-Report>.

Jarvinen, Justine, Orton, Fiona and Nelson, Tim. 2012. Electric Vehicles in Australia’s National Electricity Market: Energy Market and Policy Implications. The Electricity Journal 25(2), 63-87.

Office of the Chief Economist. 2016. Australian Energy Update. Department of Industry, Innovation and Science (Cth). Available at <https://industry.gov.au/Office-of-the-Chief-Economist/Publications/Documents/aes/2016-australian-energy-statistics.pdf>.

Commonwealth of Australia. 2018. Green Vehicle Guide. Available at <https://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au/>.


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