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Econ 400M Privatization Process of State-owned Businesses Yu Shi [email protected] 9/27/12

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Page 1: Chinese  Exchange student from Peking University  Not first time to US, But first time as a student  Please point out my problems not only during

Econ 400MPrivatization Process of State-owned Businesses

Yu [email protected]

9/27/12

Page 2: Chinese  Exchange student from Peking University  Not first time to US, But first time as a student  Please point out my problems not only during

Self-introduction

Chinese Exchange student from Peking University Not first time to US, But first time as a

student Please point out my problems not only

during this presentation but daily life Hope to become friends with all of you

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

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About Topic

Special Style: Socialist market economy To make most of the market, lots of state-owned

businesses are privatized Definition of a state-owned business

› owned by the government, but is run by an individual› most of the profit should be given to the government,

and the government handles with the entire deficit, while the manager has no economics responsibility

› What the manager can do?

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

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Coordination Game -- Basic

Players? Strategies?

› Government› Manager

Legal? Illegal?

How many times? What do they know?

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

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Coordination Game – Pay-offs Promising situation (the basic profit

reflects on a pay-off of +2). Not in a key industry as energy or

resources etc. the manager is not good at operating a

company, and treasures leisure more than the output by working (the extra profit the manager can make by working hard is +0.5, which should be added to the government’s pay-off; while giving up the leisure ends up with a -1 for the manager).

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

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Coordination Game – Pay-offs The government never know what

the manager is doing. The buyer knows exactly the true

value of the business. The government sells the business

based on the profit reported. The government are willing to see

the business running in a more efficient way (the pay-off for government is +2).

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

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Coordination Game – Pay-offs The buyer of a company will replace the

manager (pay-off is -1for manager if being fired) unless he works hard and reports all profit.

Specially, for the case (S&R, privatize), the manager’s pay-off is added by 2

If the manager cheats on reporting the profit, he may be put into jail if being caught (with pay-off of -5 for NS&NR, and -7 for S&NR). The government’s reputation may be affected (a pay-off of -3).

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

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Coordination Game III

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

GovernmentPrivatize Not

Privatize

Manager NS&NR (-6, -1) (4, 0)NS&R (-1, 4) (2, 2)S&NR (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)S&R (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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Experiment Game 20 people; 10 pairs. Make sure everyone fully understand

the information The game is stopped if the column

player chooses left, or automatically stopped if it is player for more than 20 rounds

Stop the experiment when the data is large enough.

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

Column

Left Right

Row Top (-6, -1) (4, 0)

Up (-1, 4) (2, 2)

Bottom (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)

Down (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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Prediction I

If both of the row and column players are risk lovers, in the first round, the output is going to be (top, left).

If both of the row and column players are risk averters, in the first round the output is going to be (bottom, right).

ColumnLeft Right

Row Top (-6, -1) (4, 0)Up (-1, 4) (2, 2)

Bottom (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)Down (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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Prediction II

If the row player is a risk lover while the column player is a risk averter, they are going to end up with “Top, Right” until the game is automatically stopped.

If the row player is a risk averter while the column player is a risk lover, they are going to end up with “Bottom, Left” (PD).

ColumnLeft Right

Row Top (-6, -1) (4, 0)Up (-1, 4) (2, 2)

Bottom (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)Down (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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Prediction III

Usually government will not be a risk lover, thus the game will always end up with a NE, but may not with PD in some cases.

Policy Suggestion?

ColumnLeft Right

Row Top (-6, -1) (4, 0)Up (-1, 4) (2, 2)

Bottom (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)Down (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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Sequential Game I

Government moves first:

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

S&NRPrivatize

Not Privatize

Government

NS&NRNS&R

(-1, -6)

(4, -1)

(0, 4)

S&R(-1, -8)

The Manager

The Manager

NS&NR

S&R

(5, 3)

(2, 2)

(0, 3.5)

(2.5, 1)

NS&R

S&NR

The GovernmentPrivatiz

eNot

Privatize

The Manage

r

NS&NR (-6, -1) (4, 0)NS&R (-1, 4) (2, 2)S&NR (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)S&R (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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Sequential Game II

Manager moves first:

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

P

NPGovernment

(1, 2)

(-1, 4)

The Manager

NS&NR

S&R

NS&R

S&NR

P

NPGovernment

(-6, -1)

(-2, 0)

P

NPGovernment

(-8, -1)

(-4.5, 0)PNPGovernme

nt

(3, 5)

(1, 2.5)

The GovernmentPrivatiz

eNot

Privatize

The Manage

r

NS&NR (-6, -1) (4, 0)NS&R (-1, 4) (2, 2)S&NR (-8, -1) (3.5, 0)S&R (3, 5) (1, 2.5)

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What if it is a company of an important industry?

Lose efficiency!

Policy suggestion?Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M

The Government

P NP

The Manager

NS&NR (-6, -5) (4, 0)

NS&R (-1, 0) (2, 2)

S&NR (-8, -5) (3.5, 0)

S&R (3, 1) (1, 2.5)

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Reference Hung-Gay Fung, Donald Kummer and Jinjian Shen, 2006 “China’s

Privatization Reforms: Progress and Challenges”, The Chinese Economy, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 5–25.

Russell W. Cooper, Douglas V. DeJong, Robert Forsythe and Thomas W. Ross. 1990. “Selection Criteria in Coordination Games: Some Experimental Results”, The American Economic Review, Vol. 80, No. 1. pp. 218-233

Stephen Philion, “Workers' Democracy vs. Privatization in China”, Socialism and Democracy, Volume 21, Issue 2, 2007

Avinash Dixit and Susan Skeaty. 1999. Games of Strategy, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. pp.83-151

Russell W. Cooper. 1999. Coordination Games. Cambridge University Press. pp. 1-18

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Q&A

Thank you!

Yu Shi 9/27/12 Econ 400M