中国能源和世界 china and rising oil prices william chandler president transition energy...
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中国能源和世界
China and Rising Oil Prices
William ChandlerPresident
Transition Energy International, Ltd.
Updated1 September 2005
Typical Media Story
“The price of gasoline is rising because China and India are guzzling gasoline.”
- Kiplinger Letter, quoted on WTOP Radio News, 20 March 2005
This view is partly correct, but probably unfair....
Source: British Petroleum, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2004
USA 11Europe 10
Other Asia 7J apan 5China 2
Net Oil Imports, 2003(Million Barrels per Day)
Tradition:Transport by Crude Vehicles & Bicycles
Today: Beijing Rush Hour
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1980 2002Source: BECon, 2004
Chinese Energy Use by Sector
Residential
Commercial
Transport
Construction
Industry
Agriculture
Chinese Energy Use by Type
YearUse (EJ)
Energy Use Mix (%)
Coal Oil Gas Other
1980 15 72 21 3 4
1990 24 EJ 76 17 2 5
2002 36 EJ 66 24 3 8Source: BECon, 2004
Projected Chinese Oil Imports, 2020
Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency, 2002; International Energy Agency, Paris, 1997
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020
Chinese Oil Supply (Million Barrels per Day)
Domestic
Imports
0
200
400
600
800
USA Japan South Korea China
Vehicles per 1000 Persons
2000
2020w
Forecasting Demand for Transportation Energy: Light Vehicles
The projection in the previous slide was based on this—very conservative—assumption for vehicle ownership, meaning that Chinese imports will probably be even higher in 2020.
China’s Idea of Security Has Changed....
Headlines, Financial Times
23 August 2005
Chinese energy group wins PetroKaz in $4.18bn deal
National Petroleum Corporation yesterday agreed to buy PetroKazakhstan, its central Asian rival, for $4.18bn (£2.3bn) in China's biggest cross-border takeover.
3 August 2005
CNOOC might look to Australian groups
The failure of CNOOC's bid for Unocal has revived speculation that the company might set its sights on Australia's Woodside Petroleum or Santos.
China now seeks security in resources beyond its borders.
from this to this
Energy GeopoliticsThe Struggle to Control Pipelines and Shipping Lanes
Мурманск Сургут
Ангарск
Забайкальск
Находка
Дацин ИокогамаХьюстон
13 450
10 750
3 250
2 515
3 800 - 3 900
23 150
Source: Yukos
•Energy/GDP Elasticity = ~0.6 for years
•Rapid economic development
BECon Energy Efficiency Center
BECon Functions
• Policy reform• Technology transfer• Demonstration• Public information
Success Stories in China
Conclusions About China and Oil
Oil demand is growing faster in China than anywhere else in the world
Automobile air pollution presents a serious environmental threat
Risk that China will not build efficient vehicles, endangering its security and unnecessarily threatening the environment