Africa Regional Integration Index - background information- background information

William DavisWilliam DavisAfrican Trade Policy Centre (ATPC)African Trade Policy Centre (ATPC)

RITDRITD

Xuan CheXuan CheStatistical Development Section (SDS)Statistical Development Section (SDS)

ACSACS

Purpose M&E frameM&E framework to measure implementation of work to measure implementation of

African integration African integration agreementsagreements

Compare countries’ progress vis-a-vis another Compare countries’ progress vis-a-vis another and over time (approach validated by multiple and over time (approach validated by multiple African Ministerial conferences)African Ministerial conferences)

Provide ‘dashboard’ for policy makers on Provide ‘dashboard’ for policy makers on regional integration issuesregional integration issues

Improve dataset for African regional Improve dataset for African regional integration policy analysisintegration policy analysis

Consultations SROs, ACS, RITDSROs, ACS, RITD EGM including internal and external expertsEGM including internal and external experts

Indicators based on AU MIP, PIDA and energy Indicators based on AU MIP, PIDA and energy frameworks (since infrastructure, energy not in MIP). frameworks (since infrastructure, energy not in MIP). These most recent and detailed expressions of These most recent and detailed expressions of priorities (Agenda 2063 not specific)priorities (Agenda 2063 not specific)

Mix of input, output, intermediate result indicatorsMix of input, output, intermediate result indicators Compare and rank member states against each Compare and rank member states against each

otherother MiniMax scaling, average aggregationMiniMax scaling, average aggregation Cross-border componentCross-border component Availability of data, measurabilityAvailability of data, measurability

CoM 2014, COMAI 2014 endorse, add macroeconomic CoM 2014, COMAI 2014 endorse, add macroeconomic policy convergence, social integration, genderpolicy convergence, social integration, gender

Merger with AfDB index Merged with separate AfDB project endorsed by Merged with separate AfDB project endorsed by

AfDB BoardAfDB Board Many similarities in methodology – joint index Many similarities in methodology – joint index

respects principles endorsed by CoM 2014 and respects principles endorsed by CoM 2014 and COMAI 2014 and AfDB BoardCOMAI 2014 and AfDB Board

Dimensions remain the same as before merger, Dimensions remain the same as before merger, individual indicators reviewed against individual indicators reviewed against measurability, availability of data and changedmeasurability, availability of data and changed

All other elements also remain the sameAll other elements also remain the same ‘‘Political Economy’ dimension added to measure Political Economy’ dimension added to measure

strength of RECs driving integration process.strength of RECs driving integration process.

Further refinement Indicators further refined through Indicators further refined through

consultations with NSOs, Member States (31 consultations with NSOs, Member States (31 Member States in total), RECs (3), AfDB, AUC.Member States in total), RECs (3), AfDB, AUC.

Criteria:Criteria:

Based on data-collection ground: 85% Based on data-collection ground: 85% completeness.completeness.

Based on conceptual ground.Based on conceptual ground.

JustificationJustification - b - balance of input alance of input and output indicatorsand output indicators

Some countries have advantages e.g. Some countries have advantages e.g. regional integration – greater regional integration – greater complementarity of exports (e.g. South complementarity of exports (e.g. South Africa) – boosts intra-regional trade, Africa) – boosts intra-regional trade, independent of integration measures taken independent of integration measures taken by South African governmentby South African government

Doesn’t reflect effortsDoesn’t reflect efforts

Not fair if countries that do their best still Not fair if countries that do their best still score poorly because of geographical score poorly because of geographical disadvantages etc.disadvantages etc.

JustificationJustification - b - balance of input and alance of input and output indicatorsoutput indicators

Therefore use adoption of policies etcTherefore use adoption of policies etc??

BUT won’t measure implementation and BUT won’t measure implementation and won’t capture everythingwon’t capture everything

Therefore also use outcomes and Therefore also use outcomes and intermediate outputs (not the aims, but the intermediate outputs (not the aims, but the expected results of the policy – e.g. low cost expected results of the policy – e.g. low cost of transport is output, high of transport is output, high trade is trade is outcome)outcome)

Data collection Four approaches to collect regional integration data:Four approaches to collect regional integration data:

First approach: questionnaires collected from First approach: questionnaires collected from countries.countries.

Second approach: from REC and corridor Second approach: from REC and corridor management agencies (CMA).management agencies (CMA).

Third approach: from national databases, Third approach: from national databases, websites and publications.websites and publications.

Fourth approach: from international Fourth approach: from international organizations’ statistical databases.organizations’ statistical databases.

Seven dimensions of indicatorsSeven dimensions of indicators Regional migration and the labour marketRegional migration and the labour market Trade integrationTrade integration Political economyPolitical economy Productive integrationProductive integration Financial integration and macroeconomic Financial integration and macroeconomic

policypolicy Regional infrastructure and interconnectionRegional infrastructure and interconnection (Social and cultural integration)(Social and cultural integration) TOTAL: 43 indicators.TOTAL: 43 indicators.

First approach: national questionnaire

The first preference is to collect data directly from The first preference is to collect data directly from national governments and national statistical offices. national governments and national statistical offices.

For each country, a focal point is selected. For each country, a focal point is selected. Focal points are given national questionnaires, two Focal points are given national questionnaires, two

months to collect data.months to collect data. Three training sessions trained 25 national focal Three training sessions trained 25 national focal

points: points: From East and South African REC. From East and South African REC. Two days of training on data collection Two days of training on data collection

questionnaire and metadata guide.questionnaire and metadata guide.

Second approach: REC and CMA Some indicators are better positioned to be Some indicators are better positioned to be

collected through REC and CMA.collected through REC and CMA. e.g.: payment of REC financial due, cost e.g.: payment of REC financial due, cost

of shipping along corridors.of shipping along corridors. A separate questionnaire on REC and CMA A separate questionnaire on REC and CMA

levels.levels. The REC questionnaire follows the same The REC questionnaire follows the same

format of those for national focal points.format of those for national focal points.

Third approach: national databases

If national focal points cannot locate If national focal points cannot locate indicator data, the RII team will try pulling indicator data, the RII team will try pulling data from national databases, NSO data from national databases, NSO websites, publications, etc.websites, publications, etc.

We are seeking help from the SRO.We are seeking help from the SRO.

Fourth approach: international sources

Where appropriate, data from other Where appropriate, data from other reputable organizations may be used: online reputable organizations may be used: online database, international organizations, etc. database, international organizations, etc.

Whenever data has been provided by Whenever data has been provided by national government on its own score for a national government on its own score for a particular indicator, they will always be particular indicator, they will always be preferred over any other source.preferred over any other source.

Data completeness Numbers of core indicators: 43.Numbers of core indicators: 43. Numbers of core indicators with 85% or Numbers of core indicators with 85% or

more completeness: 27.more completeness: 27. Still to go: 16.Still to go: 16.

We are confident these indicators will We are confident these indicators will pass the 85% rule.pass the 85% rule.

We keep track of: which indicators are We keep track of: which indicators are collected for each country.collected for each country.

SRO involvement Coordinate between RII team and NSO, Coordinate between RII team and NSO,

countries.countries. Advocate regional integration at sub-regional Advocate regional integration at sub-regional

level.level. Analyse the success of best practices.Analyse the success of best practices. Deposit data to the data bank.Deposit data to the data bank. Improve data completeness for First and Third Improve data completeness for First and Third

approaches.approaches. Check country data release calendar to Check country data release calendar to

ensure data timeliness.ensure data timeliness.

Multicollinearity critiqueMulticollinearity critique MisuMisunderstands purpose of indexnderstands purpose of index

NoNot for statistical attribution – for fair t for statistical attribution – for fair aggregate rankingaggregate ranking

Unless variables Unless variables perfectly collinearperfectly collinear, , omission will disadvantage some omission will disadvantage some countriescountries

Overall scoresOverall scores Indicators will be scaled and aggregatedIndicators will be scaled and aggregated

Score Score = = (raw value (raw value –– lowest raw value in dataset) lowest raw value in dataset)

(highest raw value in dataset (highest raw value in dataset –– lowest raw value in lowest raw value in

dataset)dataset)

Weighting Weighting –– simple average but possible simple average but possible upcoming consultation of experts to see if upcoming consultation of experts to see if some indicators should be more importantsome indicators should be more important

Any questions?Contact:

wdavis@uneca.org

xche@uneca.org