© 2007 cisco systems, inc. all rights reserved.cisco public entnet 2007 noevember 29, 2007 1 the...

© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 1

The Next Net Things

Fred Baker

Cisco Fellow

© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 2

Quick thoughts on the title

The program committee suggested the title:

Net-centricity is about warfare - using Internet technology to replace traditional radio and ATM-based battlefield communication systems.

Net Neutrality is about public policy and the politics between the OOT providers and the traditional telcos.

NGN is about the ITU's bid to take over the Internet and turn it into a bunch of walled gardens that can't talk with each other.

IPv6 is a network layer protocol.

Social networks are a web phenomenon, which is to say somewhere in the application layer.

Many of those will be mentioned. I’m not talking about any of them in particular, and I will mention others


History of Datagram Communications

1960’s - “Earth to telcos, voice isn’t everything”

1970’s - development of LAN & WAN datagram technologies

1980’s - displacement of telcos in intra-office communications

1990’s - displacement of telcos in inter-office communications

2000’s - NGN: telcos buy the competition and become communication carriers

“by the way, I make my money on voice”


History of the Internet: “oops, …” 1960’s - first thoughts…

Host to host communications

1970’s - funded research:

The @ sign, discovery that the network is important

1980’s - commercialization

Proprietary technologies in the LAN

Government funding gives way to regional consortia

1990’s - consolidation

Addressing issues give rise to CIDR, NAT, IPv6

RIRs+ISPs work out rules for address and capacity management

Applications: the web, RealAudio, MBONE videoconferencing

2000’s - paradigm changes

Business: the dot-bombs

The networks squeeze money out of capacity

Applications: peer-to-peer, social networking, streaming video


What are the studies telling us is next?


“ Vodafone now splits out its non-voice revenue into Messaging and Data (true data), probably because the figure for the latter KPI is starting to look a whole lot healthier.

Messaging and data revenue combined now accounts for almost 20% of the Group’s revenues.

Voice revenue increased just 7% year-on-year and messaging revenue grew 9%, data revenue jumped a whopping 49%.

Attractive data pricing, improved usability and mobile demand for Web 2.0 services which is brewing to form the perfect data storm.

Operators must now identify ways to tap into revenues from web services or else be left exposed …”

ArcChart

http://www.arcchart.com/blueprint/show.asp?id=428

“Vodafone results forecast the perfect data storm”

21 Nov 2007


“Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.

It’s important to stress that failing to make that investment will not cause the Internet to collapse. Instead, the primary impact of the lack of investment will be to throttle innovation: both the technical innovation that leads to increasingly newer and better applications, and the business innovation that relies on those technical innovations and applications to generate value. The next Google, YouTube, or Amazon might not arise, not because of a lack of demand, but due to an inability to fulfill that demand. Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in infrastructure will painlessly and invisibly leach competitiveness out of the economy.”

Nemertes Research

“The Internet Singularity: Delayed - Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web”

http://www.nemertes.com/ii

November 2007



“…the main reason potential customers say they do not subscribe to the Internet is because of the low value to their daily lives they perceive rather than concerns over cost.”

“Entertainment applications will be the key. If anything will pull in the holdouts, it's going to be applications that make the Internet more akin to pay TV,”

John Barrett, Parks Associates

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070323/wr_nm/internet_holdouts_dc_1


IPv6:Addressing the Future

Steve [email protected]

Global IPv6 Summit, DubaiFebruary 26, 2001


continued degradation of the Internet model with IPv4?

more complex and volatile network service

=> lower performance, less robust, less secure, less manageable

more centralized control over new applications and services

=> significant barrier to innovation and growth

The Unknown Future

NAT-ALG

IPv4NAT-ALG

NAT-ALG


Walled Gardens


…or restoration of the Internet model with IPv6?

simple, stable network service

=> higher performance, more robust, more secure, more manageable

enabling anyone to provide new applications and services

=> allowing rapid innovation and growth

IPv6

IPv6IPv6

IPv6

The Unknown Future


Oh, that peer-to-peer thing…

In essence, the open source community of the early 2000’s decided to innovate around the walled-garden ISPs

Some ISPs, enterprises, and universities tried to shut them down

Ostensibly about copyright concerns

More commonly about

Protection of ISP services from OTT services like Skype

Protection of bandwidths and budgets

Some ISPs decided to innovate with them…


What's the problem?

VDSL (or “Fat band”) is introduced

Upstream may go from 0.4Mb to 26Mb

60 - 80% of the traffic is file sharing applications, or maybe more…

KaZaA appears to be overtaken by Direct Connect. Possibly a short term change to the better, but long term change to the worse…(user interest groups)

Connectivity services with very high local bandwidth (TBCN)

Selective bandwidth per application to other specific networks

Requirements for higher utilization of the network

Real time traffic may not be compromised (like gaming and IP-telephony)

And some other business- and political issues “not put on paper”…

Cus

tom

er-p

rovi

ded

info

rmat

ion:

12/

2003


Packet cubeT

ime (h

ou

r)

5h

4h

3h

2h

1h

0

0 300 600 900 1200 1500 Average packet size (Byte)

Variation of packet size (Byte)

300

900

1200

600

IP-phone (classic)Skype (IP-phone)HTTPFile sharing

Maybe packet rate (not bandwidth) should be a fourth dimension?

Cus

tom

er-p

rovi

ded

info

rmat

ion:

12/

2003


What applications are hot?

HTTP

In the late 1990’s, the largest application on the Internet was the web - http to anything one could imagine

Peer-to-peer

In the early 2000’s, peer-to-peer file sharing drove Internet bandwidth, in some cases 85% of utilization

Web 2.0

In 2007, the largest volume sites on the Internet have successively been FaceBook, MySpace, and YouTube

Peer-to-peer file sharing is still very large, but HTTP is once again king…

Far from being entertainment-by-entertainment-company, today’s Internet is largely about people entertaining themselves and each other with content they develop


Recommending IPv6 operational deployment due to pending exhaustion of the IPv4 address space

All five RIRs…


“The sky’s not falling, but parts of it are getting pretty expensive to hold up.”

KC Claffy

CAIDA


So - what’s next?


What has always been next?


What will trigger that change?


Inflection point

Many analyses point to an inflection point

IPv4 address exhaustion leading to IPv6 deployment

US broadband (access) infrastructure brownout

Mobile Internet starting to move beyond voice+SMS

Global Internet content continuing to shift (happens frequently)

Implications:

This does not mean “doom and gloom”

It does, however, imply need for thoughtful investment

Timeframe:

Converging factors (“perfect storm”) suggest this is in the coming 3-5 year timeframe


Areas of change and innovation

New user communities

New networks reaching less obvious folks

Regulatory discussions

The role of government

The degree of control carriers are allowed

Requirements for forensic access, content control, etc

Oh yes…

Extending existing applications, and

New applications and paradigms that we haven’t thought of yet


Where is the broadband Internet today?The Europe/America/East Asia/ANZ fiber corridor

Map

cop

yrig

ht 2

008

Tel

eGeo

grap

hy


Power, and by extension money, throughout the world

NASA “Earth At Night”, August 2006


IP Addresses throughout the world today


Developing countries coming on line NATO Silk Road Network:

Connects national educational networks in central asia

Preparatory to fiber networks

Photo: Silk Road Project© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public


Rural and community networks

Wireless Access in Sandoval County New Mexico

Often mixed requirements

Example: Sandoval County NM

Seven aboriginal nations

Large desert/mountain region

Small town of 100,000

Broadband service by traditional telecoms “didn’t make business sense”

© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public

International Workshop on e-Access for All8-9 February 2007


“The issue of connection and/or interconection costs is…a very important issue for most of people from developing countries…

It is related to the lack of infrastructure, the lack of investment, the “cartel” behavior of many companies in some regions/sub-regions, obsolete regulations,and lack of appropriate public policies.”

Raul Echeberria

LACNIC

29© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public


IPv6 deployment

Significant IPv6 traffic in transition technologies

RIPE-55 measurements: Jordi Palet Martinez

Presumably from Vista, MacOSX, and Linux deployments

Networks running IPv6-only:

NTT Communications video network

CERNET2 Research Network

Others…

Expect to see IPv6 turn-up in the near term

Needed by ISPs to deploy new services requiring address space

Needed to communicate with business partners in IPv6-only networks


Issues in IPv6 deployment IETF and RIRs have been recommending dual stack

deployment

While one can make a 1:1 correspondence between IPv4 and IPv6 addresses, bring up IPv6 in your IPv4 network

When that correspondence can no longer be made, everyone will “speak” IPv6, and the net can safely “move along”

RFC 4213

Folks haven’t done this in large numbers

Implication: there will be issues as IPv6 deploys

IETF question (next week): do we need an improved NAT-PT algorithm, and can we deploy it?

RFC 4966

Open issue:

IPv6 doesn’t address route scaling issues of the address space

Ongoing work in this area needs to continue.


Applications

Web 2.0 sites and technologies

Social Networking

Peer-to-peer

Primarily about file sharing

Also Skype voice/video

Video services

YouTube etc

Collaboration technology

Marratech, for example


Q and A

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