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Strategy and Public Opinion

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Agenda

• What is public opinion?

• Public opinion as a factor in GR

• Public opinion and brands – do brands matter?

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Defining Public Opinion

“Those opinions held by private persons which

governments find prudent to heed.”

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Public Opinion 101

• While opinion about specific issues tends to move around based on the current public debate, all opinions are anchored on stable values and other deeply held predispositions.

• Government looks both at current public opinion and latent public opinion.

– “… what he (the legislator) needs really to worry about is, not whether his performance pleases the constituency at the moment, but what the response of his constituency will be in the next campaign when persons aggrieved by his position attack his record.”

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Personal Identity(Self-Esteem)

Values and Ideals

Attitudes

Beliefs

Opinion Formation

Public and Media

Discourse

Behaviours and Actions

Support for Post

Secondary Funding

YourUniversity

Image

How Opinion Forms

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As Illustrated by the Little Red Boat…

Little Red Boat

* Public Opinion

it’s affected by the winds

* Public Debate

it’s affected by the current

* Underlying Change

1 2

3

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Anchors* Values

Sometimes the lines are tight…

… and sometimes the lines are loose

Little Red Boat

* Public Opinion

What keeps public opinion anchored?

1 2

Moving public opinion depends on how tightly or loosely the public is anchored to the personal values that influence how opinion is formed.

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Little Red Boat

* Public Opinion

… values are loose and the Little Red Boat

drifts around the lake

Anchors* Values

High Political Sophistication/ Engagement

Low Political Sophistication/ Engagement

When the lake water is low …

1

9

Little Red Boat

* Public Opinion

… values are tight and the Little Red Boat stays in one spot

Anchors* Values

High Political Sophistication/ Engagement

Low Political Sophistication/ Engagement

… but, when the lake water is high …

1

10

How do parties count?

1111

12%

53%

10% 10%4% 8%

3%

Core Tory ProbableTory

Soft Tory Neutral PossibleTory

Unlikely Tory Non Tory

20%12%

53%

15%

Base Tories Swing Voters Stretch Not Available

Conservative Vote Universe

12

Defining the Battleground

17%

66%17%

Conservative Base Conservative Battleground Non-Conservative

17%

52%31%

Quebec Rest of Canada

Voter Segments C

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How parties think?

Each campaign has two jobs:

• To convince voters to support their party

• To convince supporters to vote

Support Undecided Opposed

Likely to vote

Not likely to vote

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Canada’s Political Tribes

Canada's Political Tribes

'Show Me' Left 19%

Social Democrats 25%

Small 'l' liberals 21%

Responsible Capitalists 19%

Traditional Conservatives

17%

156 ROC Battleground Conservative Clusters

1: Zach and Zoey 2: Richard Johnson 3: Sandra

4: Herman 5: Gladys 6: Susan

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Quebec Conservative Media Clusters

Home Decorators

15%

Sports Fans 27%

News Avoiders 13%

Just the News 20%

Celebrity Watchers 25%

Quebec Media ClustersC

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19%

15%

18%

23%

58%

63%

62%

76%

73%11%

13%

28%

16%

11%

14%

Conservative Base Conservative Battleground Non-Conservative

Quebec Media Clusters by Conservative Voter Segments

“Celebrity Watchers”

“News Avoiders”

“Just the News”

“Home Decorators”

“Sports Fans”

Quebec Media Clusters X Conservative Voter SegmentsC

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Key Take-Aways

• Everyone is NOT equal when it comes to elections.

– Parties focus on specific types of voters in swing ridings.

• The opinions that matter the most are the opinions in play among swing voters in swing ridings during the next election.

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The Bottom Line for those trying to influence governmentThere are two ways to influence public opinion.

• Drive the Agenda

– In the short term, advocates can influence the winds of the public debate to push public opinion to the limit of existing values and predispositions.

• This is practical and actionable.

• Move the Goal Posts

– In the long run, advocates can influence values and other predisposition

• This is possible (think about attitudes towards smoking and same sex marriage) but success take years.

2020

What is Corporate Reputation?

The reputation of an organization is comprised of the combined perceptions of its key stakeholders – the audiences that judge an organization based on its actions, behaviours and communications.

FinancialPerformance

CorporateCitizenship

HumanResources

BrandEquity

Product &ServiceQuality

Leadership

CORPORATEREPUTATION

Elements of Corporate Reputation Audiences

FinancialCommunity

Employees

Partners Regulators

Media

GeneralPublic

Customers

Company

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Reputation Drives Choices

• Universities depend on their reputation to attract the most talented “inputs” (students and faculty).

• And to be seen among Canadian business and industry leaders as having the most highly skilled “outputs” (graduates and research results).

• A University’s reputation impacts the institution’s ability to attract leading researchers and faculty, to gain grant money for research and for operations, and to fundraise.

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22The hospital brand is a sum of it’s parts, no one part is mutually exclusive

Hospital Brand

Fundraising

Em

plo

yee

Satis

factio

n

Com

mu

nit

y

Perc

ep

tion

Patient Care

23Effective public relations also drives positive brand

33%

11%

86%

67%

Agree Disagree

Unfavourable view of local hospital Favourable view of local hospitalNote: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

My local hospital wastes a lot of money

19 point difference

22 point difference

24Rating of hospital affects likelihood to donate

40%

69%

59%

Favourable view of local hospital Unfavourable view of local hospital

Unlikely to donate Likely to donateNote: ‘Don’t know/Refused’ not shown

Likelihood to donate to local hospital

31 point difference

29 point difference

28%

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Managing DirectorDirect: 416.642.6429Email: glyle@innovativeresearch.ca

Greg Lyle

Innovative Research Group, Inc. | www.innovativeresearch.ca