— 1 — © 2013 vital economy, inc. community economic development kick-off february 15, 2013...
TRANSCRIPT
— 1 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Community Economic Development Kick-off
February 15, 2013
Frank Knott – [email protected]
Mark Madsen – [email protected]
Jim Haguewood – [email protected]
— 2 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 3 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Leadership Board
David Alstadt Windham Workforce Investment Board
Bill Colvin Bennington Regional Commission
Tim Cullenen Town of Rockingham – Village of Bellows Falls
Colby Dix Vermont Geeks
Jill James Chroma
Martin Langeveld Strolling of the Heifers
Jeff Lewis Brattleboro Development and Credit Corp
Susan McMahon Windham Regional Commission
Patrick Moreland Town of Brattleboro
Stephan Morse Retired
Adam Grinold Mt. Snow Valley Chamber of Commerce
Jenna Pugliese Stratton Mountain Resort
Drew Richards Richards Insurance
Barb Sondag Town of Brattleboro
Julia Sorensen Brattleboro Retreat
Bob Stevens Stevens and Associates
Lisa Sullivan Bartleby's Books
Dan Yates Brattleboro Savings & Loan
Laura Sibilia BDCC SeVEDS Project Director
— 4 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Addition CEDS Committee Members
Rachel Selsky Camoin Associates
Stephanie Huestis Peoples Bank
Andy Robinson Department of Labor
Bill Anton Dover School Principal
Chris Moore Attorney in Bellows Falls
Connie Snow Windham Windsor Housing
Dutch Walsh Town of Rockingham
Gail Nunziata Latchis
Roger Albee former VT Secretary of Agriculture, VT Technical College
Oliver Olsen Oracle
— 5 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Mission Statement
SeVEDS exists to reverse the economic decline of this region
Allowing the stagnant economic and demographic trends that have persisted over the last decade to continue in southeastern Vermont threatens the Vermont Brand and post card perfect perception of our quality of place. It is time to stick a stake in the ground and say “enough is enough” and develop strategies and actions based on our assets to reverse those trends.
— 6 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Low wages, a rising cost of living and limited job opportunities create a disconnect between the skills needed by employers and the skills held by the workforce.
This leads to a widely shared sense of economic insecurity resulting in many Vermonters looking for economic opportunity elsewhere, and few choosing Vermont as a place to live and conduct business.
SeVEDS Shared Sense of Urgency
— 7 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Vision
Southeastern Vermont will have an economy that generates long-term growth and prosperity and that improves our quality of life and sustains our quality of place.
— 8 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS 2017 Objectives (Goals)
1. Create Operational and Fiscal Sustainability Plan for SeVEDS by
December 2011
2. Improve Wage Parity with Surrounding Labor-shed
3. Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce
4. Increase population proportion of 25-44 year olds from 23% to 28% of total population by 2017
5. Create an Entrepreneurial Environment
— 9 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Base SeVEDS Region Metrics Baseline* 2017 Goal %Change Total Change
Population 42,605 42,605 0% -
Employable Population (16 and older) 35,520* 36,171 +1.8% +651
Labor Participation Rate 65%* 68.8% +5.8% -
Total Employed 23,089* 24,894 +7.8% +1,805
Average Wage $38,820 $39,848 +2.6% +$1,028/yr
Total Region Wages $896M $992M +10.7% $96M
Regional GDP $2.37B $2.8B +18.1% $430M
Regional Strategic Metrics Baseline 2017 Goal Change
Ratio Net Earned Income/Total Income .566 .650 +14.1% -
Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some College workforce $26,855 $32,000 +19.1%
+$5.145/yr($2.47/hr)
Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelors Degree workforce $32,518 $39,000 +19.9%
+$6,482/yr($3.12/hr)
Increase 20-44 employment by 20% in five years (2009 data) 10,691 12,829 20% +2,138
Increase Associates Degrees/Some College and Technical Certificates among 18-24 age bracket
38% (1,495)
47%(1,884)
+23.6% +389
Increase the 25-44 age population by 20% in five years 9,533 11,439 20% +1,906
Projected SeVEDS Region 2017 Goals and Outcomes as of 2010
* Base Line data is as of Spring 2010
Note: Baseline and Goals based on 2009 U.S. BEA Data & Estimates
— 10 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 11 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Why Do We Do A CEDS ?
• Eligibility for economic development assistance funding from EDA
• EDA can help fund local infrastructure projects, technology-led economic development projects and strategies that respond to sudden and severe economic dislocations from major lay-offs or plant closings.
• One regional CEDS serves the needs of local governments so that they do not individually need to qualify to receive EDA funds
• Numerous federal agencies now use the CEDS as a bonus qualifier for prioritization of grant applications. Federal agencies (i.e. USDA, HUD, DOE, DOC, DOL, etc.) are teaming their resources for larger competitive grants. CEDS applicants receive bonus points.
• Connects local planning efforts to regional strategies
— 12 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Why Does SeVEDS Want To Do A CEDS ?
• Provides more clarity for the initial SeVEDS strategies
• Educates community to be more engaged and take ownership of CEDS
• Proven process for building and galvanizing public support
• Develops a valid implementation plan for the SeVEDS strategy
• Increases public & private sector networking to achieve more opportunity
• Creates a common and consistent economic development message
• Enables strategy integration with Windham Regional Plan & beyond
• Connects public works projects to priority economic development projects
• Facilitate discussion of need for an organized system of redevelopment
• Provides planning mechanism for a post VY economy
— 13 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Specific
Measurable
Achievable
Relevant
Time Based
We are Building a S.M.A.R.T. CEDS to Increase Opportunity
— 14 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
1. Process – Based on Best Practices for Regional CED & Collaboration
2. Regional Focus – Enables regions to compete against country strategies
3. Asset-Based – Indigenous assets grow more durable economies
4. Diversified – Makes for a more nimble & resilient economy!
5. Measurable Strategy – Responsive to trends…relevant to region
6. Disciplined & Consistent – All ideas are not equal…priorities matter
Keys to Regional S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Development & Implementation
— 15 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Create and Retain Wealth To Build Prosperity
ProductivityInnovation in Education Technology Innovation Innovation in Organizations
Wealth CreationIncrease Exports
Increase Value AddingInvestment Attraction
Wealth RetentionCapture Value Chains
Reduce Leakage Recapture Value in Waste Streams
Prosperity
— 16 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Will Increase Economic Opportunity
Now:
Within 5 Yrs:
Collaboration builds critical mass and creates a climate of unlimited economic opportunity!
— 17 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
• Your ideas or questions….Q. Might an important goal be improvement of quality of life. For example – energy consumption. – Isn’t it
much more efficient to reduce consumption
How much focus will be on reducing consumption?
A. Frank Knott – There is a close connection between environment, energy and economic growth. We talk a lot about productivity which is about taking the waste out of the system . At the same time, unless you are increasing wages and earned income you are not improving quality of life. In fact, quality of life suffers in the face of a stagnant economy. The only growth trend in income in this region has been from non-earned income. There as been an increase in sole-proprietors but a decrease in wages earned and proprietor incomes earned. – Is that balanced?
— 18 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 19 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Updating the SeVEDS Regional Profile
The profile of a region consists not just of data, but also the influences of events, people, perceptions, and attitudes. The following pages provide a high level summary of the Economic Profile of the SeVEDS region as reflected in Quantitative Statistics.
Raw data however is not the only story –• On the night of April 18. 2011 a devastating fire swept through the
iconic Brooks House in downtown Brattleboro
• Four months later at the close of August Hurricane Irene hit with torrential rains with wide-spread and record level flooding causing significant destruction to homes and businesses and massive devastation to critical infrastructure.
• Vermont and in particular Southeastern Vermont must continue to plan for a Post-VY reality with the loss of hundreds of high wage jobs and of economic impacts upon the region.
• Perceptions and attitudes about what constitutes appropriate economic development and growth are not universally shared in Vermont and in particular Southeastern Vermont. Many people have expressed a preference for no economic growth.
• With the release of the 2010 Census – it has become starkly apparent that projecting population trends for Southeast Vermont defies trend analysis and further confirms the stagnant nature of the regional economy.
• One thing that is clear is that Windham County is aging faster than almost any other county in Northern New England or the U.S.
— 20 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Perceptions of Vermont Economic Performance
In February 2011, Dr. Michael Porter from Harvard Business School presented a report to the National Governor’s Association Winter Meeting at the request of Governor Peter Shumlin. The opening page of that report gave Vermont the following ratings relative to the rest of the United States in terms of rank or position and whether the trend was improving or declining:
Source: Vermont Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance, Porter, Michael E., Harvard Business School, paper presented at National Governors Association Winter Meeting, February 26, 2011
— 21 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
2010 U.S. Census – Windham County Demographic Makeup
Age Bracket 1990 % 2000 % 2010 EST % 2010 act %0-4 3,052 7.3% 2,340 5.3% 1,988 4.6% 2,148 4.8%
5-14 5,997 14.4% 6,078 13.7% 4,605 10.7% 4,971 11.2%15-19 2,571 6.2% 3,104 7.0% 2,627 6.1% 2,839 6.4%20-24 2,544 6.1% 2,050 4.6% 2,526 5.9% 2,513 5.6%25-34 6,973 16.8% 4,976 11.3% 4,665 10.9% 4,636 10.4%35-44 7,331 17.6% 7,453 16.9% 5,207 12.1% 5,183 11.6%45-54 4,308 10.4% 7,513 17.0% 7,343 17.1% 7,697 17.3%55-64 3,418 8.2% 4,529 10.2% 7,006 16.3% 7,359 16.5%65-74 2,914 7.0% 3,182 7.2% 3,851 9.0% 3,967 8.9%75-84 1,780 4.3% 2,117 4.8% 2,016 4.7% 2,219 5.0%85+ 700 1.7% 874 2.0% 1,022 2.4% 981 2.2%
Total 41,588 44,216 42,856 44,513median Age 34.6 40.0 44.7 44.9Median Age 1990 2000 2010 EST 2010 Act
Vermont 33.0 37.7 41.6 41.5Maine 33.9 38.6 42.7 42.7Mass. 33.5 36.6 39.4 39.1
US 32.9 35.3 37.1 36.8
Source: Census Bureau 2010, 2012
Note the 2010 estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Windham County has defied even the best demographers effort to forecast population and demographics. At the same time US Census bureau projected 2010 pop of 42,856, MIT projected 45,796.
For 2015, US Census projected Windham population of 41,804, Woods and Poole estimated 45,601 and MIT projected 46,455.
— 22 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Windham County Percentage Change in Demographic Makeup
• In the 2010 Census, Maine and Vermont ranked #1 and #2 as the oldest states. and Windham County is aging faster than Maine and Vermont.
• Significant increase in the population of those people approaching retirement age
• Age groups entering the working population (late teens and early twenties) are small
• Significant decrease in prime workforce and childbearing ages
• Continual decline in the number of school-aged children since 1990’s
Source: Census Bureau 2010, 2012
un
de
r 2
02
0 to
44
45
to 6
5O
ver
65
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
-0.84%
-14.0%
+55.8%
+14.44%
-14.3%
-26.8%
+94.9%
+32..87%
Windham County Changing Demographics(% Change 1990-2000 and % Change 200-2010)
201020001990
— 23 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Source: US CensusNote: The Census Bureau makes a statistical correction, called a “residual”. Therefore Natural change plus net migration may not add to the total population change in the previous tables
“Demographic is Destiny” – Arthur Kemp
Components of SE VermontPopulation Change 2000 - 2011
— 24 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Born in state of residence
Born in other state in the United
States
Native - born outside the
United StatesForeign born
United States 59.0% 27.1% 1.3% 12.5% Vermont 52.2% 43.2% 0.9% 3.7% Windham County, VT 41.8% 53.9% 0.9% 3.5%
The major differences between the SeVEDS Region and the U.S. economy’s is the ability to attract and retain the 20-44 age cohort. The implications are:
(1) The reduced ability to produce future workforce participants through birth, and
(2) Lack of immigration to replace the aging baby boomer work force.
How will SeVEDS attract and retain a future workforce?
Source: US Census American Community Survey Table B06001 2009
Demographic research confirms that 90% of U.S. employment gaps have been filled by immigrants at all levels of employment.
A regions ability to grow is dependent on its ability to provide a climate that encourages & welcomes a multi-cultural community & workforce.
— 25 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Job Creation has been stagnant since early 1990s
Source: BEA, US Census
Components of Windham County Employment Change, 1970 - 2011 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011
Total Employment 18,144 23,256 28,951 33,306 33,474 33,337
Wage and Salary Jobs 15,876 18,929 23,316 25,890 24,040 24,036
Number of Proprietors 2,268 4,327 5,635 7,416 9,434 9,301
Percent of Total
Wage and Salary Jobs 87.5% 81.4% 80.5% 77.7% 71.8% 72.1%
Number of Proprietors 12.5% 18.6% 19.5% 22.3% 28.2% 27.9%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Employment and Self-EmploymentWindham County
Wage and Salary Jobs Number of Proprietors
• Between 1995 to 2011 wage and salary employment has been stagnant, after increasing during the twenty years from 1970 to 1990.
• Self-employment has shown steady increases over the last forty years.
— 26 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Windham CountyAverage Earnings Per Job &
Per Capita Incomes 1970 - 2011
Real Average Earning (all Jobs) Real Per Capita Income 2010 = 100
Re
al D
olla
rs 2
01
0 =
10
0
Real Dollars 2010 = 100 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011
Real Average Earnings Per Job $ 36,682 $ 31,084 $ 35,481 $ 38,386 $ 37,061 $ 36,657
Real Per Capital Income $ 20,755 $ 23,822 $ 30,286 $ 36,543 $ 39,475 $ 39,232
• From 1970 to 2011, Average Earning per Job fell from $36,682 to $36,657, in real terms, a drop of $25
• From 1970 to 2011, Per Capita Income grew from $20,755 to $39,232, in real terms, an 89% increase
Non-Labor related income is driving Real Per Capita Income growth
— 27 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Sources of Personal Income (2011)
US 2011
VT 2011
Windham 2011
Windham County still lags behind the US and Vermont in percentage of Private Sector Earned Income.• Significantly higher proportion of income from Transfer
Payments • Significantly higher share of income received from Dividends,
Interest & Rents
1.1% Improvement since 2009
Div. Int. & Rent declined by1.5% since
2009
Source: BEA 2009 & VE Analysis
Transfer payments rose by .4 % from
2009
— 28 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 25,000
35,000
45,000
55,000
65,000
75,000
85,000
WY AK
DE
CT
ND MA NY
LA NJ CO NB WA MN
IL TX VA CA MD SD OF IA
HI NV PA NC RI NH KS UT WI IN Vermont GA OK TN OH MO
KY WV MT FL
MI AZ NM
AR ME AL ID MS
MS
49,670
Real GDP Growth Rate 2012
Gro
ss
Do
me
sti
c P
rod
uc
t, P
er
Ca
pit
a 2
01
2
GDP Under-performance is impacted by five key factors:1. Demographics2. Declining Jobs3. Lack of Immigration4. Educational Attainment5. Middle-Skill Workforce
Declining prime worker cohort in the 25-44 age group is directly related to declining jobs. This is further exacerbated by lack of immigration.
Educational Attainment and Workforce disconnects reduces the ability of the region to supply high-GDP growth, high demand middle-skill jobs.
Vermont Economic Performance Lags New England and US
Source: US BEA. usgovernmernrevenue.com.VE Analysis
Recent improvements in
GDP still leave VT lagging
High and RisingProsperity vs US
US
Re
al G
DP
Gro
wth
Rat
e 2
.4%
Per Capita US GDP $49,670
Vermont GDP
2011 ActualPer Capita GDP $46,167 = 32nd out of 51GDP Growth Rate 0.5% = 39th out of 51
2012 EstimatedPer Capita GDP $44,833 = 33rd out of 51GDP Growth Rate 2.2% = 36th out of 51
2017 EstimatedPer Capita GDP $50,000 = 39th out of 51GDP Growth Rate 3.9% = 43rd out of 51
— 29 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Concentration, Growth and Employment by Economic Sector
+
Concent rat I on
-
+
Compound Annual Growth 2010-2015- +
Educational Services, Private- 1,563
Utilities - 473
Information - 298
Retail Trade, Staples – 1,939
Wholesale Trade -1,104 Healthcare Social Services–2,816
Accommodations & Food Service – 2,648
Metals Manufacture - 1,099
Highlighted industry sectors are the most significant in economic impact in Windham County as of Fall 2010
Windham County Sector Location Quotient and Growth Rates
— 30 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Source: US EDA Innovation Index, Innovation in America Region, www.statsamerica.org
SeVEDS Innovation Climate lags Surrounding Regions & U.S.
Innovation Index components:1. Human Dynamics 30%2. Economic Dynamics 30%3. Productivity & Employment 30%4. Economic Well-Being 10%
Innovation Index demonstrates the need for SeVEDS to develop an effective innovation environment and strategy. This requires that SeVEDS capitalize on its indigenous assets, reverse demographic trends, develop the proper mix of workforce skills, and invest in an innovation ecosystem.
103.6%
87.9%
84%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
US Massachusetts New HamsphireMaine Vermont Windham
100%
103.6%
83%87.9%84%
116.9%
— 31 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Economic Performance Comparisons – Windham County vs US
Relative Performance, 2010 Windham US
Trends
Population (% change 2000-2010) 0.9% 9.6%
Employment (% change 2000-2010) 0.5% 5.1%
Personal income (% change 2000-2010) 9.0% 14.0%
Average Earning per Job (% change 2000-2010) -3.50% 2.3%
Per Capita Income (% change 2000-2010) 8.0% 4%
Prosperit
y
Average Earnings Per Job $38,231 $53,347
Per Capita Income (% change 2000-2010) $40,722 $41,197
Average Annual Wages - Service Related $37,176 $46,145
Average Annual Wages - Non-Service Related $45,592 $56,169
Average Annual Wages - Government Related $37,256 $49,691
Stress
Unemployment Rate (Change 200-2011) 3.0% 4.9%
Unemployment Rated 5.70% 8.9%
Structure
Percent of Sole-Proprietor Employment 28.20% 21.7%
Percent of Personal Income from Non-Earned Sources 43.30% 35.2%
Percent of Service Related Jobs 69.90% 70.9%
Percent of Non-Service Related Jobs 15.30% 14.9%Percent of Government Jobs 9.90% 14.2%
Ratio of Windham to United States
Regional Performance Metric is Better than U.S. Regional Performance Metric Lags U.S.
Sources BEA (CA05N, CA30 CA91) BLS-QCEW
— 32 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
. Your ideas or questions….Q. We have some of most sustainable businesses – do we really want to attract information technology
companies that have high turnover.
A. Mark Madsen – When we speak of technology driven firms, that is not just information technology companies. You already have several companies in the region that are high tech, high value companies – technology drive precision manufacturers
Audience Comment. Most Analysts don’t understand Windham county – Vermont is ahead because we are behind – great asset is that we can produce quality of life with less income
Q. Why can’t Demographers accurately forecast population trends for the region?
A. The region attract people who want to enjoy a certain lifestyle and are financially able to live here
Audience Comment: not everything can be measured in dollars and cents – happiness metric – some non-monetary metrics
Q: Birth rates/death rates declining population, school enrollment – are the people that are leaving educated? What are the implication of demographics changes– growth in 45-65 year olds.
A. If you are an employer and 50% of employers are over a certain age, you are wondering how am I going to replace those retirees – where is that future workforce going to come from.
Audience Reply I get it – Marlboro College graduate center serves a demographic that is coming back for retraining at age 45.
— 33 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 34 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Economic Issues & Implications as Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
Economic Issue Implication
Low Average Wage • Limits the ability to attract and retain mid and high level skilled workers.
Low Earned Income as a Proportion of Personal Income
• Reduces support for a climate of innovation and risk taking central to economic growth
• Income producing activity declines and so will regional rate of GDP growth
Decreasing % of Population 25-44
• Reduced vibrancy of the community from young personalities and activities• Lower education system enrollments• Reduced family spending on domestic and basic products and services• Businesses cannot grow or will be forced to leave the region due to lack of
workforce.
Weak Entrepreneurial Climate
• Limits the attraction of risk based business capital• Reduced attractiveness to young bright highly educated 25-44 demographic
Lack of Cell and Broadband Service
• 21st Century “on the go” wireless connected business & workers cannot be served
• Regions develops a reputation as not enabling or meeting citizens expectations
• Work and workers serving a 24/7 connected economy will not find region attractive
Weak Local Economy & Local Market
• Limits the attraction of new capital and investment• Not attractive to new business and services, few ROI opportunities
— 35 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Opportunities and Challenges Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
OPPORTUNITIES:
1. Vermont Brand
2. Location
3. Imminent Technology infrastructure
4. Manufacturing base
5. Educational institutions
6. Recreation
7. Cultural and Arts
8. Tourists, second home owners bringing dollars into region
9. Key tourism infrastructure
10. Access to government
11. Healthcare Infrastructure
12. Healthy and health-focused population
CHALLENGES:
1. Lack of Cell Service and Broadband
2. Weak local market/economy
3. Declining workforce population
4. Taxes
5. Declining earned income
6. Finding employment – not enough jobs
7. Lack of investment capital
8. Disconnect between education and jobs
9. Capacity -- Lack of critical mass
10. Declining student enrollment
11. Qualified Workforce recruitment
12. Redevelopment capability and capacity
13. Stagnant Real Estate Market
14. Lack of Innovation and true Entrepreneurship
Source: 2010-2011 SeVEDS Foundation Milestone Meeting Output from Community Leaders
— 36 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Assets and Gaps as Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
Economic & Community Assets
• Precision Technology Driven Manufacturing
• Logistics
• Global presence
• Second Homeowners
• Natural Environment for Skiing and Outdoor Recreation
• Concentration of Health and Mental Health Care Facilities
Capacity Gaps
• Incubators
• Redevelopment System
• Workforce Development
• Broadband/Telecom
• Rail
• Post VY Planning
Source: 2010 - 2011 SeVEDS Asset Mapping Meetings conducted throughout the region
— 37 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Vermont Industry Markets
Source: Vermont Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance, Porter, Michael E., Harvard Business School, paper presented at National Governors Association Winter Meeting, February 26, 2011
SeVEDS Niche Market Sectors(See Next Page) ♠ ♣ ♥ ♦ ◘ ◊
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♠
♠
♣
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— 38 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Industry Clusters Opportunities as Defined by SeVEDS in 2010
Based on Asset Mapping, Industry Interviews, and VE Research, the following Sectors appear to present significant opportunities for SE Vermont:
SE Vermont Economic Sectors
Technology Driven
PrecisionManufacturing
Business & Technology
Services
High QualityPost-Secondary
Education
Logistics&
Distribution
Hospitality,Retail &Tourism
Healthcare
- Optics
- Medical Devices
- Aerospace
- International Business & Culture Center of Excellence
- Nursing & Medical Admin. Support
- Shared Services Center
- Software & IT Services
- Environmental Services
- Assembly & Distribution Medical Devices
- NNE Hub
- Passenger Rail Gateway
- Winter Sports
- Fall Foliage
- Arts & Cultural
- Vibrant Downtown Retail
- Mental Healthcare
- Regional Health Services
Niche Markets
Source: VE and SeVEDS Asset Mapping and Cluster Analysis
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— 39 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Macro Economic Trends SeVEDS Region Should Consider
1. Demographics – Immigration filled 90% of the job growth over the last 15 years
2. Workforce – 2018 - 63% of jobs will require beyond high school education
3. Quality of Place – knowledge workers have a choice, 1st where to live, 2nd where to work, key to attracting and retaining young worker families
4. On Shoring & Near Shoring – 5M new jobs by 2020
5. Exports – Manufacturing exports to grow 2%-7% to Europe & Japan
6. US Manufacturing Growth – Driven by low cost energy, rising global wage rates and a reduced risk profile
7. Food Security – growing local food trends, agriculture science, healthy choices
8. Healthcare – healthy communities, extension and improved quality of life through health sciences, convergence of product innovation and system design
— 40 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Analysis
Trend data shows that the SeVEDS region has been declining as an employment hub over the past ten years. This is evidenced by the absolute decline in number of jobs in the region as well as the quality of the employment regardless of age cohort.
Additional data for the labor shed that serves the SeVEDS region demonstrates that median earnings for those living outside Windham County are far more favorable than for those living in Windham County, whether in Massachusetts or New Hampshire counties.
The perception of overall high educational attainment across a broad spectrum of the local populous in the region is not borne out by the data. In fact, the region is producing a much higher percentage of under-educated younger workers than Vermont or the surrounding regions under age 45. This flies in the face of increasing trends for workers with high demand skills across almost all industry sectors.
The preponderance of an undereducated working age population and the inability of the region to meet workforce demand for high demand middle skill sets results in a staggering decline in the 20-45 age group, which are the primary birthing and family rearing years. This reality calls for a real focus on increasing educational attainment in the region.
— 41 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
• Your ideas or questions….Q. What percentage of Vermont Yankee jobs are held by Windham county residents?
A. About 30%
Audience Comment: All of assets and quality of life pieces – seems like opportunity to address energy cost and food costs – local food systems – successes with manufacturers -rail program
Audience Comment: We have great cultural vitality in region – vast range need to be added –
Audience Comment: Building on leverageable – The arts and local agriculture are leverageable.
Audience Comment: Considerations on dollars lost and jobs lost towards Keene
Q. Can you comment on quality of place and how different demographic s perceive it?
A. Jeff Lewis tells the quality of place story from SeVEDS informal survey in 2011. Perception was surprising discovered to be relative to age and stage of life. Older generation perceived the amenities for entertainment as very good in SE Vermont, while younger generation found amenities severely lacking.
Audience Comment: Business leader spoke about quality of life, young professional, and the workforce challenges her business – (Chroma)
Audience Comment: Need to make sure that the needs and interest of underemployed or families in poverty are being heard in the CEDS process.
— 42 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
Break
— 43 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 44 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
P→C Builds ROI Rationale for Regional Collaboration
Move Up the Value Chain, Capture Greater Share of Value Chain
Margins, Increase Economic Prosperity
P C
CP
P=Producer & C=CustomerFriction is the cost of getting from P to C
— 45 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Investment Attraction Keeps Filling The Pool (Economy) with More Water (Capital)
Investment Attraction Keeps Filling The Pool (Economy) with More Water (Capital)
$$$
IMPORT ACTIVITIES bring in goods and services to
serve the needs and desires of the community; but
capital flows out
EXPORT ACTIVITIES* bring money into the region by selling
goods and/or services of value and importance to
national or international markets
CONSUMER SERVICES SECTORactivities that directly and indirectly address the
consumption demands of the local residents
SE Vermont Economy
*the only source of new capital that the region
can use to pay for goods and services to
meet its needs and desires
$$$
$$$
$$$
Regional Economic Swimming Pool
— 46 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
• Your ideas or questions….
— 47 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
The changing global economy has radically altered the ways that cities and regions establish and maintain their competitive edge. Knowledge has largely replaced natural resource exploitation and the drudgery of oppressive physical labor as the source of wealth creation and economic growth. In this new era, a region’s ability to attract and retain a balanced mix of skills and talents needed for growth has become the key factor in its economic success. But attracting and retaining this talent has proven to be something of a challenge.
Conventional wisdom argues that if the jobs are available, the workers will follow, but the economy today doesn’t quite follow these rules. Because the demand for talented people outstrips supply, these skilled workers can essentially choose where to live and work. When it comes to choosing where to locate, knowledge workers have definite shopping lists, and regions that seek to attract them do well to know what they want.
Role of Quality of Place in a 21st Century Economy
— 48 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Quality of Place Strategies Prioritize Regional Assets
• Views a community or region as a place with assets versus deficits, which can be preserved, enhanced and leveraged to achieve improved community and economic development outcomes.
• Recognizes that needs must be addressed, but focuses on indigenous community assets as a foundation for future growth
• Human Capital: Workforce, knowledge and skill assets, work ethic
• Social Capital: building trust, ability to work, plan and act as a group
• Physical Capital: housing, transportation, town centers, infrastructure
• Financial Capital: life cycle equity and debt financing resources
• Environmental Capital: land, natural resources, scenic beauty, recreation
• Cultural Capital: heritage, architecture, arts and culture, performing arts
• Healthy Community Capital: Education, Healthcare, Social Services, Public Safety
• Builds on these assets to create a better place to live work and play
• Connects these assets to regional, national and global economic opportunity
— 49 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Quality of Place Connects KBE Assets for a More Effective CEDS
• Knowledge Based Economy (KBE) versus traditional industrial economy jobs are the economic growth direction of the 21st century economy
• In the traditional economy, workers moved to be near jobs. Today, companies increasingly look to move to where knowledge workers live
• KBE workers are in greater demand and have the choice of being more particular about whom they work for and where they live
• They often choose to live in places that provide their families a high quality of life. To some extent the job has become secondary to lifestyle amenities available in the community KBE workers choose
• Quality of Place strategies deliver livable communities where community and economic development assets are equal partners for growth
— 50 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Livable Communities Are Key to a Quality of Place Based CEDS
• Livable communities all across America are increasingly popular places in which to live, work, vacation and retire.
• In the 1990s, 2 million more Americans moved from metropolitan centers to rural areas than migrated the other way. Communities with natural beauty and a high quality of life are magnets for businesses, working families and retirees.
• The vast majority of residents, new and old, feel a strong attachment to the landscape and the character of their town. They want a healthy economy, but not at the expense of their natural surroundings or community character.
• Elected officials and residents want to find ways to preserve what they love about their communities without saying no to jobs and economic development.
• Across America, there are communities that have found that economic prosperity does not demand degraded surroundings, loss of community character or becoming a congested tourist trap.
• Successful communities are finding that the opposite is true: that beauty pays, that sustainable tourism provides more benefits than mass-market tourism, that retaining community character is a key to economic success, that thoughtful management of public resources and well-planned development can help prosperity occur.
Source: National Geographic Center for Sustainable Destinations, Urban Land Institute and The Conservation Fund Survey
— 51 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Source: Growing Vermont’s Next Generation Workforce, (April 2007), Next Generation Consulting
Quality of Life – Perceptions versus Reality
The Growing Vermont’s Next Generation Workforce report clearly demonstrates that there is a disconnect between the perception of Vermont Quality of Place values and peoples actions
SeVEDS should develop Quality of Life goals based on NGC “Values vs. Perception” indicators.
This Dissonance
is Significant
— 52 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Balance: Knowledge workers are highly mobile and essentially balance economic opportunity and lifestyle in selecting cities and regions that are attractive to them as places to live and work. Thus, challenging, high-paying, high tech jobs, while obviously necessary, are alone not enough to attract the best and the brightest.
Labor Market: Knowledge workers are highly mobile and anticipate moving among various employers and thus favor cities and regions with a “thick labor market” that offers the wide variety of employment opportunities required to sustain a career in high technology fields.
Amenities: Variety and accessibility of natural, recreational, and lifestyle amenities – is vital in attracting talent and thus in supporting a broad range of leading-edge high technology firms and industries.
A Blend of Work and Leisure: Knowledge workers seek environments that allow them to blend rather than separate their work and leisure. Due to the long work hours, fast-pace, and tight deadlines associated with work in high technology industries, they desire amenities that blend seamlessly with work and can be accessed quickly on a “just-in-time” basis when free time becomes available.
A Sense of Place: Knowledge workers increasingly prefer urban to suburban neighborhoods and seem particularly drawn to areas that feature interesting older structures, a range of public spaces, a blend of personal and commercial space, and the bustle and buzz of varied activity including work, shopping, and entertainment. They prefer the kind of authenticity and realness found in older cities and neighborhoods to the generic office complex and strip mall environment found of the “techno-burbs.”
Elements of Quality of Place
— 53 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Active Lifestyle: Knowledge workers prefer “doing” to “watching.” They prefer to participate rather than watch sports and favor a diverse range of intense outdoor activities (rowing, sailing, cycling, rock climbing). Easy access to water and water-based recreation is particularly important.
Alternative Arts and Culture: Defying traditional assumptions about what makes a region attractive, knowledge workers are less concerned with “big ticket” amenities such “high-brow” arts and culture or professional sports. Instead, they prefer a number of smaller, accessible, “street-level” opportunities to dine, dance, engage in active recreation, and soak up the local music scene.
The Environment: Environment – particularly air and water quality – matters. The new economy dramatically transforms the role of the environment and natural resources.
Creativity and Innovation: Diversity is not simply an individual preference related to personal lifestyle but a basic precondition for the creativity and innovation needed to build and sustain a successful high tech region. Creativity and innovation are the key success factors of the new economy, and new ideas thrive in diverse environments. In other words, being competitive requires innovation, and innovation in turn requires diversity.
Educational Opportunities: The 21st Century economy is based on knowledge. Without local high quality educational opportunities, innovative and creative talent leaves a region, employer face higher training costs and employment opportunities dwindle.
Elements of Quality of Place (Cont)
— 54 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SE Vermont Perceptions of Quality of Place Assets
Balance:
Labor Market:
Amenities:
A Blend of Work and Leisure:
A Sense of Place:
Active Lifestyle:
Alternative Arts and Culture:
The Environment:
Creativity and Innovation:
Educational Opportunities:
Overall Quality of Place Index = 71 out of 100
— 55 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
• Your ideas or questions….Q. How many people under 30 in audience – (There were 2 people under 30) The survey results seem
skewed survey because of who is in this room.
Audience Comment: I would never have moved here at 25 – that is where our company get younger professionals
Q. How many people in this room have an advanced degree (2/3 raised hands) – That isn’t representative of population in the larger region – if you aren’t reaching those folks
Educator Comment: came here from North Carolina – infrastructure of SE Vermont you don’t realize that small class sizes and quality of ED small class sizes is underutilized in being leveraged for economy
Educator Comment: Education touches all of these pieces – conversations happen in isolation
Young Professional Comment: I’m in my 30’s and came to SE Vermont because it is home and I found a good job – I can’t give you a reason why I’m here – which is why I keep working on SeVEDS
Q. What are we doing with the Q of P index info?
A. We it’s a measurement at point of time. We use your input to identify areas that need improvement and areas that are regional strengths.
— 56 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 57 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
From Brattleboro Miles Time by car
Albany, NY 80 2 hrs.
Boston, MA 116 2 hrs. 25 min.
Burlington, VT 151 2 hrs. 30 min.
Hartford, CT 85 1 hr. 25 min.
Montreal 393 4 hrs.
NYC 205 3 hrs. 40 min.
Providence, RI 137 2 hrs. 20 min.
SE Vermont Strategic Location
SeVEDS is at the center of major NNE and Canadian Population Centers.
The existing affinity for the region presents opportunities for economic growth, that should be leveraged beyond tourism & second home ownership.
— 58 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Negative Net Cross-County Commuting Flows
Inflow of Earning comes from people who work outside the county but bring money home.
Outflow of Earnings are the gross earnings of people who work in the county but reside elsewhere.
Negative Residential Adjustment indicates a net outflow of approximately 5.1 % of total regional earnings.
The region is a Net Importer of Labor with surrounding counties contributing 9.8% of total workforce.
2010Windham Cross-County Earnings millions of $Cross-County Commuting FlowsTotal Personal Income $1,811,582
Inflow of Earnings 202,223Outflow of Earnings 294,525Net Residential Adustment (inflow-Outflow -92,302
Percent of Total Net Residential Share of Toal Personal Income -5.1%
Count ShareEmployed in Windham County 21,933
Employed in Windham County but Living Outside 8,868 40.4%Employed and Living in Windham County 13,065 59.6%
Living in Windham County 19,793Living in Windham County but Employed Outside 6,728 34.0%Living and Employed Windham County 13,065 66.0% Net Labor Inflow 2,140
Percent of Total 9.8%
— 59 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SE Vermont Labor Shed
The economy of SE Vermont must be viewed in the context of the broader functional Labor Shed.
This labor shed transcends State, County, BDCC, WRPC and other planning boundaries.
So the question becomes –
How will the SeVEDS region interact with the broader region to share assets and collaborate to discover new opportunities and increase the economic vitality and resiliency of the region?
Source: WRPC Regional Profile
— 60 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
No HS Diploma HS Graduate Some College or Assoc Degree
Bachelor's Degree Grad or Prof Degree
WINDHAM 21269 27327 26855 32518 42316
VERMONT 20698 27231 31374 38837 50090
Cheshire, NH 24866 30452 31653 39857 53647
Sullivan, NH 21654 28480 32972 42523 52721
Franklin, MA 21604 31254 34869 38024 47570
Hampshire, MA 23505 31703 35248 42480 55568
$12,500
$17,500
$22,500
$27,500
$32,500
$37,500
$42,500
$47,500
$52,500
$57,500
2009
Med
ian
An
nu
al E
arn
ing
s
Source: US Census Bureau
Median Earnings by Educational Attainment
Median Earnings by Educational Attainment shows the dramatic impact of job loss on wages in SeVEDS. College grads earn 18% more in Cheshire County, NH and 23% more in Hampshire County, MA.
— 61 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Windham VT ME MA NH US $-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
2011 Average Annual Wages
Average Wage Comparisons (2011)
Wages and Salaries are a function of skills, productivity, and supply/demand forces as well as the structural make-up of the regional economy. SE Vermont average wage comparison with neighboring States reveals that the region is at a significant disadvantage in attracting and retaining a skilled workforce due its lower average wage.
Source: BLS, QCEW 02/2013
Windham VT ME MA NH US
Average Annual Wage $ 37,880 $ 40,293 $ 38,020 $ 59,671 $ 47,281 $ 48,043
% of Windham County 106% 100% 158% 125% 127%
— 62 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Windham County’s neighbors to the South are embarking on a 21st Century regional economic development strategy leveraging education and natural assets. The regional strategy has already solidified a solid and authentic “brand” identity due to its assets.
• Led by Pioneer Valley Planning Commission & Capital Region Council of Governments
• New England’s 2nd largest population
• 43 Cities and 2 counties
• One of the highest concentrations of higher education in the US,
• 32 higher education institutions including elite Universities, MIT, Harvard, UMass, Amherst
• Focus includes;• Rail infrastructure• Quality of Place projects• Super high performance computing
center.
New England’s Next Generation “Knowledge Corridor”
Political boarders are not barriers in a VE Journey
Regional Asset That Could Be Leveraged –
The NE Next Generation Knowledge Corridor
— 63 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Vermont Industry Markets
Source: Vermont Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance, Porter, Michael E., Harvard Business School, paper presented at National Governors Association Winter Meeting, February 26, 2011
SeVEDS Niche Market Sectors(See Next Page) ♠ ♣ ♥ ♦ ◘ ◊
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— 64 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Balanced S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Approach
Inform Goals
StrategyAction
CEDS PlanningBusiness Retention & Expansion
Business RecruitmentBusiness IncubationLeadership Training
CEDS PlanningBusiness Retention & Expansion
Business RecruitmentBusiness IncubationLeadership Training
Strategic Components
Industry Sectors
Logistics &Distribution
Healthcare
Hospitality,Retail & Tourism
Business & IT Services
Technology DrivenPrecision
Manufacturing
High Quality Post Secondary
Education
SeVEDS Five YearRegional Goals
SeVEDS Five YearRegional Goals
Ratio of Net Earned incomeTo Total Income
↑ .566 to .65
Increase Median Annual Income
AS/some Collegeto $32,000/yr.
Increase Median Annual Income
Bachelors Degreeto $39,000/yr.
Increase 20-44 ageEmployment 20%
Increase AS/Tech Certs.For 18-24 age
From 38% to 47%
Increase Pop of25-44 age by 20%
Ratio of Net Earned incomeTo Total Income
↑ .566 to .65
Increase Median Annual Income
AS/some Collegeto $32,000/yr.
Increase Median Annual Income
Bachelors Degreeto $39,000/yr.
Increase 20-44 ageEmployment 20%
Increase AS/Tech Certs.For 18-24 age
From 38% to 47%
Increase Pop of25-44 age by 20%
— 65 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS 2017 Objectives (Goals)
1. Create Operational and Fiscal Sustainability Plan for SeVEDS by
December 2011
2. Improve Wage Parity with Surrounding Labor-shed
3. Increase the Size and Quality of the Workforce
4. Increase population proportion of 25-44 year olds from 23% to 28% of total population by 2017
5. Create an Entrepreneurial Environment
— 66 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Base SeVEDS Region Metrics Baseline* 2017 Goal %Change Total Change
Population 42,605 42,605 0% -
Employable Population (16 and older) 35,520* 36,171 +1.8% +651
Labor Participation Rate 65%* 68.8% +5.8% -
Total Employed 23,089* 24,894 +7.8% +1,805
Average Wage $38,820 $39,848 +2.6% +$1,028/yr
Total Region Wages $896M $992M +10.7% $96M
Regional GDP $2.37B $2.8B +18.1% $430M
Regional Strategic Metrics Baseline 2017 Goal Change
Ratio Net Earned Income/Total Income .566 .650 +14.1% -
Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some College workforce $26,855 $32,000 +19.1%
+$5.145/yr($2.47/hr)
Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelors Degree workforce $32,518 $39,000 +19.9%
+$6,482/yr($3.12/hr)
Increase 20-44 employment by 20% in five years (2009 data) 10,691 12,829 20% +2,138
Increase Associates Degrees/Some College and Technical Certificates among 18-24 age bracket
38% (1,495)
47%(1,884)
+23.6% +389
Increase the 25-44 age population by 20% in five years 9,533 11,439 20% +1,906
Projected SeVEDS Region 2017 Goals and Outcomes as of 2010
* Base Line data is as of Spring 2010
Note: Baseline and Goals based on 2009 U.S. BEA Data & Estimates
— 67 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
• Your ideas or questions….
— 68 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kick-Off Agenda
8:30 AM – Meet and Greet
8:50 AM – Welcome & Introductions
9:00 AM – Why We Create A Community Economic Development Strategy
9:15 AM – Regional Profile Summary and Key Implications for the Future
9:40 AM – Exploration & Discussion of Issues of Challenge and Opportunity
10:10 AM – Break
10:25 AM – What Does Quality of Place Mean in the Context of a Healthy SeVEDS Economy?
10:50 AM – What Role Does S.E. Vermont Play in The Broader Region?
11:10 AM – Going Forward - CEDS over the Next Nine Months Why your involvement and that of others is important
March - Regional community input meetings and focus group interviews
May - Regional feedback meetings and potential 2nd round focus group interviews
June-August - Connect Milestone Analysis and CEDS report preparation
September - Celebration of CEDS at Town Hall Meeting
September-October - CEDS Public Comment Period
November - Submit final CEDS to EDA
11:30 AM – Adjourn
— 69 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Kickoff• CEDS Committee Training
• Existing Research
• Sense of Urgency
• Issues of Challenge & Opportunity
• Economic Benchmarking & S.M.A.R.T. Goal Setting
• Community Engagement Plan
• CEDS Objectives
• CED Readiness Assessment
Kickoff• CEDS Committee Training
• Existing Research
• Sense of Urgency
• Issues of Challenge & Opportunity
• Economic Benchmarking & S.M.A.R.T. Goal Setting
• Community Engagement Plan
• CEDS Objectives
• CED Readiness Assessment
Discovery• Four (4) Open Public Input
Events (March)
• Four (4) Community Report Back Events (May)
• Focus Interviews
• Media Campaign
• Begin Analysis of community input
Discovery• Four (4) Open Public Input
Events (March)
• Four (4) Community Report Back Events (May)
• Focus Interviews
• Media Campaign
• Begin Analysis of community input
Connect• Analyze Community Input
• Prioritize Strategies
• Identify & Prioritize Targeted Industry Clusters
• Prioritize Critical capital project
• Identify partners
• Develop Implementation Plan
Connect• Analyze Community Input
• Prioritize Strategies
• Identify & Prioritize Targeted Industry Clusters
• Prioritize Critical capital project
• Identify partners
• Develop Implementation Plan
S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Four Milestone Process and Schedule
Report• Prepare /Review Draft
CEDS
• Town Hall Meeting to open 30-day public comment period
• Finalize CEDS
• Adopt CEDS
• Submit CEDS to EDA
Report• Prepare /Review Draft
CEDS
• Town Hall Meeting to open 30-day public comment period
• Finalize CEDS
• Adopt CEDS
• Submit CEDS to EDA
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct
17 15 19-20 21-22 19
Town Hall MeetingCEDS Kick-off Event
To Do #3: Set Bi-Weekly SeVEDS Staff / VE Conference Call Schedule
— 70 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
SeVEDS Community Engagement MeetingsRound 1 Public Engagement Events – Week of March 18-22 VE in Region 3 Days Four large open public meetings to collect public input
Dates? Locations? Invitees?
Focused business, academic, workforce development, non-profit sector Individual and group interviews (Round One)
Dates? Who? Locations?
Round 2 Public Engagement Events – Week of May 20-24 VE in Region 3 Days
Four large open public meetings to report back community input Dates? Locations?
Focused business, academic, workforce development, non-profit sector Individual and group interviews (Round Two as needed) Dates? Who? Locations?
Planning for these events to take place with SeVEDS Staff and VE following Kickoff Event in February
— 71 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Report Phase
• Early preliminary draft for CEDS committee review/comment– To SeVEDS First Week of August– Review Second Week of August and back to VE
• Late preliminary draft for CEDS review/comment– Joint VE/SeVEDS review First Week of September
• Town Hall Meeting presentation open public comment period– September 16 - Publication ready version to SeVEDS– September 19 - Town Hall Meeting and open public comment period
• Final CEDS Document Revision and Delivery
• Adopting Body(ies) Action
• Submittal to EDA
— 72 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Your thoughts or Questions
• Your ideas or questions….
• Comments:
• Healthy communities
• March meeting dates need to be checked for conflicts
• Need to reach out to families in poverty
• As one of the only people under 30 in room – you’ve got to reach way out to connect with people under 30. There is a diverse group of youth in the region 18-30.
— 73 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Thank You!
Q & A
www.vitaleconomy.com
— 74 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Community Economic Development Kick-off
February 15, 2013
Frank Knott – [email protected]
Mark Madsen – [email protected]
Jim Haguewood – [email protected]
— 75 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Background
— 76 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Balanced S.M.A.R.T. CEDS Approach
Inform Goals
StrategyAction
CEDS PlanningBusiness Retention & Expansion
Business RecruitmentBusiness IncubationLeadership Training
CEDS PlanningBusiness Retention & Expansion
Business RecruitmentBusiness IncubationLeadership Training
Strategic Components
Industry Sectors
Logistics &Distribution
Healthcare
Hospitality,Retail & Tourism
Business & IT Services
Technology DrivenPrecision
Manufacturing
High Quality Post Secondary
Education
SeVEDS Five YearRegional Goals
SeVEDS Five YearRegional Goals
Ratio of Net Earned incomeTo Total Income
↑ .566 to .65
Increase Median Annual Income
AS/some Collegeto $32,000/yr.
Increase Median Annual Income
Bachelors Degreeto $39,000/yr.
Increase 20-44 ageEmployment 20%
Increase AS/Tech Certs.For 18-24 age
From 38% to 47%
Increase Pop of25-44 age by 20%
Ratio of Net Earned incomeTo Total Income
↑ .566 to .65
Increase Median Annual Income
AS/some Collegeto $32,000/yr.
Increase Median Annual Income
Bachelors Degreeto $39,000/yr.
Increase 20-44 ageEmployment 20%
Increase AS/Tech Certs.For 18-24 age
From 38% to 47%
Increase Pop of25-44 age by 20%
— 77 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
P→C Builds ROI Rationale for Regional Collaboration
Move Up the Value Chain, Capture Greater Share of Value Chain
Margins, Increase Economic Prosperity
P C
CP
P=Producer & C=CustomerFriction is the cost of getting from P to C
— 78 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Investment Attraction Keeps Filling The Pool (Economy) with More Water (Capital)
Investment Attraction Keeps Filling The Pool (Economy) with More Water (Capital)
$$$
IMPORT ACTIVITIES bring in goods and services to
serve the needs and desires of the community; but
capital flows out
EXPORT ACTIVITIES* bring money into the region by selling
goods and/or services of value and importance to
national or international markets
CONSUMER SERVICES SECTORactivities that directly and indirectly address the
consumption demands of the local residents
SE Vermont Economy
*the only source of new capital that the region
can use to pay for goods and services to
meet its needs and desires
$$$
$$$
$$$
Regional Economic Swimming Pool
— 79 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
3 Keys to Economic Transformation
CollaborationBuilds Sufficient Critical Mass to Compete Globally, while
Emerging Cluster Strategies Assure Regional growth
+Connectivity
Links Geographically Remote Resources to Increase Access, while Creating Opportunity, Building Diversification, Enabling Collaboration
+Changed Spending
Increases Productivity and RevenuesOpens New Markets, Expands Opportunity,
Establishes Measurable Benchmarks and Goals
— 80 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
1. Create a Sense of Shared Need & Urgency
2. Create the Vision & Build the Guiding Team
3. Define the Change Impacts
4. Communicate for Buy-in
5. Empower Others to Act
6. Create Short-term Wins
7. Sustain the Change
8. Make it Stick
Based on Kotter, John P. Leading Change. Boston: Harvard Business School Press
Engaging & Enabling the Whole Community
Implementing & Sustaining Transformation
Creating a Climate for Change
Eight Steps for Leading Change
— 81 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
• Significant changes in economic structure• Increased government intervention and control in private sector (Banking,
Insurance, Auto industries)• Banking failures, & auto industry restructuring• Instability and volatility in financial markets world-wide
• Awareness and focus on local and global environmental issues• Natural resources and environment formerly regarded as exploitable
resources and receptors of production stream waste residue respectively.• Now the same resources are recognized as important resources to be wisely
used and held in stewardship for future generations.• Increased consciousness of transportation costs and environmental impacts
shipping goods long distances.• There is significant interest and investment in “Clean Technologies.
• Prevailing high unemployment • “Jobless Recovery” is prevailing outlook for 2010-2012
• Consumer confidence and spending is still Flat• Cautious business spending patterns
Key Issues Facing U.S. Economy
— 82 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
Vision → Objectives → Goals → Assets → Strategies → Actions
Objectives & Goal Metrics:
• Increase the Average Wage and proportion of personal income from earned income
• ↑ Ratio Net Earned Income / Total Income from .566 to .65
• Improve Wage Parity with surrounding counties (the labor shed)
• ↑ Increase Median Annual Income for Associates/Some College to $32,000
• ↑ Increase Median Annual Income for Bachelors Degree to $39,000
• Increase the size and quality of the workforce
• ↑ Increase 20-44 employment by 20% in five years
• ↑ Increase Associate Degrees/Some College and Technical Certificates among 18-24 year old age bracket from 38% to 47%
• Increase population proportion of 25-44 year olds
• ↑ Increase the absolute number of people in 25-44 age bracket by 20% in five years
• Create an entrepreneurial environment
• Define and implement an Innovation Ecosystem within 3 years
— 83 —© 2013 ViTAL Economy, Inc.
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